➥杭州浙江大學回溯分析96位COVID-19住院患者的呼吸道檢體、糞便、血清及尿液檢體中的SARS-CoV-2病毒RNA量與疾病進程及嚴重度的相關性。其中包含22位輕症及74位重症患者，病毒以定量聚合酶連鎖反應(qRT-PCR)定量。重要發現如下：


(1)所有患者的呼吸道檢體均可檢出病毒。此外，分別有55 (59%)位患者的糞便、39 (41%)位患者的血清及1位患者的尿液可檢出病毒。


(2)不同檢體中，可持續檢出病毒的平均時間以糞便最長(22天，四分位距17-31天)，其次為呼吸道檢體(18天，四分位距13-29 days)及血清(16天，四分位距11-21天)。


(3)輕症患者呼吸道檢體可持續檢出病毒的平均時間為14天(範圍10-21天)，病毒量在第二星期達到最高;重症患者呼吸道檢體可持續檢出病毒的平均時間為21天(範圍14-30天)，病毒量在第三星期仍維持高點。


(4)大於60歲及男性患者的病毒持續時間較長。
此研究成果呈現了檢體別、疾病進程及嚴重度與病毒量之間的相關性，這些發現可作為擬定COVID-19感控策略的重要背景資料。
(「財團法人國家衛生研究院」吳綺容醫師 摘要整理)


📋 Viral load dynamics and disease severity in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 in Zhejiang province, China, January-March 2020: retrospective cohort study(2020/04/21)+中文摘要轉譯

➥Author：Shufa Zheng, Jian Fan, Fei Yu, et al.
➥Link： BMJ
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1443


🔔豐富的學術文獻資料都在【Covid-19 新冠肺炎資源網】
■ http://forum.nhri.org.tw/covid19/


#2019COVID19Academic
衛生福利部
疾病管制署 - 1922防疫達人
疾病管制署
國家衛生研究院-論壇

#Twitter戰線【天下制裁方向：科技產品、紅色資本、白手套 —— 請立即Retweet】

我已用英文撰文，公開回應白宮有意切實推動制裁的路透社報導，並提出經濟制裁應從三個方向，包括軍民兩用科技產品、紅色資本和白手套企業入手，呼籲各位幫忙Retweet，香港正與時間競賽，反制北京實在爭分奪秒：https://twitter.com/joshuawongcf/status/1265469996123041797

中文原文：https://www.facebook.com/200976479994868/posts/3025281830897638/

#眾志國際連結 #國際戰線

Reuters and Bloomberg just confimed that the US is likely to sanction China if it approves the hugely controversial bill that damages HK's autonomy. When Beijing insists on ignoring international responses and breaching international norms and rules, it is time for China to face the grave consequences and international backlashes for its irresponsible act of scraping an UN-filed Joint Declaration.

In fact, the world has already expressed concern over the evil and ill-defined national security law that will kill democratic movements in HK and harm global business interest in the city. But China keeps dismissing all doubts from world leaders, business sectors and even bar associations. This law is even eviler than the extradition bill last year. China’s poor human rights records have already proved that it will undeniably use the law to crush HK’s civil society and dissents.

For a long time, Hong Kong has been treated by Beijing as a white glove port for importing sensitive strategic commodities. Once the law is implemented, a secret police agency and a CCP-led China’s court will be imposed upon this global business centre. At that time, HK will fall into Beijing’s direct rule, and de facto becomes another city of China. Hence, all special treatments granted to HK need to be subject to reconsideration.

In fact, countries starts to realize the changing role of Hong Kong in a bigger picture of China’s global strategy. For example, Israel’s security officials just rejected a bid from CK Hutchison Holdings for the potential security risks of Chinese involvement in a plant construction in the disguise of "HK companies”.

To safeguard the city’s freedoms and urge China to stop further misconduct, world leaders, not only the US, should consider sanctions on China as the only effective strategic option to send a warning signal to Beijing. The sanctions should not only be restricted to personal sanctions like travel bans and asset freezes (since China won’t really realize the severity), but also partial sanctions on pro-CCP companies and dual-use technology.

Democratic values and the virtue to respect treaties are the foundation of democracies. If China’s flagrant breach of Joint Declaration, a legally binding international treaty at the United Nations, is tolerated, it will set a bad precedent to all other treaties and agreements alike.

————————

儘管拉人封艇，取締眾志不再是空談，留一口氣，點一盞燈，拜托大家幫忙延續國際戰線血脈：https://bit.ly/DemosistoBackup（是次籌募以美金結算）

➥【重點摘要】：
自2020年1月起，中國COVID-19病例快速攀升，疫情最嚴重的武漢在2020年1月23日採取封城措施，以對抗持續升溫的疫情，後續全國多個城市也進入封城或半封城狀態。


此中國研究發現，北京、上海、深圳及溫州的第一波疫情，在積極採取多項管制措施後，新冠病毒「即時有效繁殖率」( instantaneous reproduction number，Rt) 逐漸降到1以下，表示疫情已受控制。作者進一步利用傳染病模型(Susceptible–Infectious–Recovered, SIR model)預測發現，處在境外移入病例增加的第二波疫情中，即使剛始是病例數不多的小規模疫情，但若逐漸鬆綁管制措施，病例數將會呈指數型快速上升。


雖然在再次採取嚴厲的管控措施下，疫情可以得到控制，但過程中會付出相當的健康及經濟的損失。因此如何在社經活動及疫情管控兩者間取得平衡，是重要的課題。作者建議 Rt可以當作決策的重要指標，在新冠疫苗上市前，決策單位應參考動態的Rt，微調各項管制政策，儘可能將Rt維持在1以下，避免疫情再次的爆發。


註: 「即時有效繁殖率」( instantaneous reproduction number，Rt)的定義為一個個案發病後，在 t時間點平均可以傳給幾個人。Rt < 1 表示疫情逐漸控制中; Rt > 1 表示疫情仍持續流行。 會影響Rt的因子包含:人口密度、交通運輸、個人防護、社經活動、病毒傳播能力等。
(「財團法人國家衛生研究院」吳綺容醫師 摘要整理)


📋 First-wave COVID-19 transmissibility and severity in China outside Hubei after control measures, and second-wave scenario planning: a modelling impact assessment.(2020/04/8)+中文摘要轉譯

➥Author：Leung K, Wu JT, Liu D, et al.
➥Link： The Lancet
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673620307467?via%3Dihub


#2019COVID19Academic
衛生福利部
疾病管制署 - 1922防疫達人
疾病管制署
國家衛生研究院-論壇