長賜輪在蘇伊士運河擱淺後,綜合外電報導的省思:極限邊緣的船舶操縱,科學與安全之間給”人的反應”留下多少”餘裕空間?

航行員都知道:在有限水域中的船舶操縱與大洋中的船舶操縱有極大的差別,也因此而產生一些”異常反應”的專有名詞,譬如:淺水效應,岸吸/岸推,船體下坐(Squat),狗頭嗅地(Dog smelling),單俥右旋船在淺水區倒俥時之船頭可能向左,主要的原因都是來自船舶四周的海水,來不及湧入去填補船艉所造成之空穴.

也因為這個緣故,Suez Canal當局對過河船隻有一些船寬,吃水,速度上的限制.基於經濟上的考慮,可以想像這些限制都是在”水工模型”下最大化的尺度界線.(越大的船過河費越貴),然而這些都是理想環境下的科學論證,實際上船舶操縱者的精神狀態,駕駛台的氣氛環境,外界視線,無線電之干擾,Marlboro菸未如預期,住艙走廊上”波斯市場”的氛圍….都在影響著”駕駛台資源管理(BRM)”,而使得船舶之實際Performance遊走在”紅線”邊緣,更糟的是一但越過紅線(Point of non-return),情況就越來越糟,猶如在山脊上騎腳踏車.

這次的重大意外,在檢討”船舶因素”之外,蘇伊士運河當局也應該重新考慮”紅線邊緣的緩衝區”是否應適度放寬,以因應船舶無止境的大型化,因應極端氣候下的異常天氣,因應新世代船員之特性,另外也可考慮在駕駛台放一箱Marlboro,讓有需要的人看自己包包大小量力自取,畢竟比起全球供應鏈上的損失,這都是微不足道的”潤滑油”.不是嗎?

The Suez Canal Authority occasionally brings out updated tables of width and acceptable draft for ships. Currently the permissible limits for suezmax ships are 20.1 m (66 ft) of draught with the beam no wider than 50 m (164.0 ft), or 12.2 m (40 ft) of draught with maximum allowed beam of 77.5 m (254 ft). Due to their design and size, a large number of ports around the world can accommodate suezmax vessels.
17,65 56,96
, a new set is being built for vessels as large as 366 meters in length, 49 meters in beam and 15.2 meters in draft at tropical frvessel.
That would have surpassed the speed limit of about 7.6 knots (8.7 miles an hour) to 8.6 knots that is listed as the maximum speed vessels are “allowed to transit” through the canal, according to the Suez authority’s rules of navigation handbook posted on its website. Captains interviewed for this story said it can pay to increase the speed in the face of a strong wind to maneuver the ship better.
“Speeding up to a certain point is effective,” said Chris Gillard, who was captain of a 300-meter container ship that crossed the Suez monthly for nearly a decade until 2019. “More than that and it becomes counter effective because the bow will get sucked down deep into the water. Then, adding too much power does nothing but exacerbate the problem.”
“You might find yourself positioning the ship in one direction, and you’re actually moving in another direction,” said Kinsey. “There’s a very fine line between having enough speed to maneuver and not having too much speed that the air and hydrodynamics become unstable. Any deviation can get real bad real quick because it’s so tight.”

The accident will be a missed opportunity if the industry doesn’t adapt, he said. “There will be vessels larger than this one that will be going through the Suez,” he said. “The next incident will be worse.”

• The Ever Given's speed was 13.5 knots before it ran aground, The Japan Times reported.
•
• Bloomberg reported the Suez Canal speed limit was between 7.6 knots and 8.6 knots.
The Ever Given didn't have a tugboat escort through the canal, according to Bloomberg. The two ships immediately ahead of it reportedly had escorts, although such escorts were not required.

👨‍⚕️NIPT篩檢唐氏症真的有99.7%的準確率嗎？

聲明
在此不評論單一個案
僅以實證醫學為證據做分享
——————————————————-
首先名詞解釋
▪️疾病偵測率(detection rate)
某一檢查能將”有病的人檢查出陽性的比率”是多少
▪️偽陰性(false negative)
將”有病的人檢查出卻是陰性”
EX:
-100得到流感的人接受快篩有70個人陽性↩️
那麼快篩這個檢查的偵測率為70/100=70%

-另外明明得到流感卻在快篩中呈現陰性的30人↩️
就是所謂的偽陰性
(這些人的陰性是"偽"的，是"假"的，因為他們其實有病)
——————————————————-
以下文章引用一篇大規模的統合分析研究中
(Meta-analysis)擁有超過20萬例以上的臨床綜合結果分析

參考資料：
1. Ultrasound Obstet Gynecol. 2017 Apr 11. Analysis of cell-free DNA in
maternal blood in screening for aneuploidies: updated meta-analysis.

此篇文章共蒐集了225895 (22萬5千多個) 接受NIPT系列檢查的人

其中➡️1963個被確診為唐氏症
(這裡的確診方式是以羊膜穿刺或者出生之後做染色體檢查)

而NIPT這個檢查
在1963確定為唐氏症的小孩中抓出了1957個
那麼
▪️NIPT的唐氏症偵測率➡️1957 / 1963 = 99.7%
▪️NIPT的唐氏症偽陰性率➡️ 6/1963 = 0.3%
( 沒被檢查抓出來的唐氏症共6個 
偽陰性率大約千分之三）

所以
NIPT有沒有可能漏掉其實是唐氏症的小孩?
確實是有的
一千個唐氏症的小孩裡面這個檢查會漏掉三個
但並不能說
有千分之三的機會被誤診為正常
因為大多人懷的小孩都不是唐氏症
(99.13% 的小孩是正常的)

✏️結論
我們應該由整體來說
對於這22萬5千多個孕婦來說
NIPT抓出了1957個唐氏症
共有6個唐氏症小孩沒有被NIPT檢查出來
也就是說 22萬個孕婦裡面
會漏掉6個

至於這樣的檢查結果是否令人滿意?
必須看每個人對於風險的評估判斷
在此僅供真實數據參考
要如何取捨
還是需要靠自己衡量
——————————————————-
完整內容請搜尋
🔍威廉氏後人➕NIPT唐氏症篩檢⤵️
https://www.facebook.com/228302891088428/posts/240897346495649/?d=n

🧔🏻威廉氏後人-李毅評醫師🥼
臉書蒐尋 : 威廉氏後人-李毅評醫師
粉絲專頁 : 
https://www.facebook.com/mrwilliams999
網誌連結 : 
https://mrwilliams999.blogspot.tw
Instagram:
https://instagram.com/mr_williams_li?igshid=1acmb9yttsgdf

#威廉氏後人 #李毅評醫師 #備孕 #產檢 #唐氏症篩檢 #NIPT

林作x全職獵人久保Cover Letter Carving範例

以下範例可以作為各位寫Cover Letter的參考。

Fillture Career Coaching的客戶裏面，有工作年資尚淺的，也有工作年資超過20年的。他們也是來自於各行各業。目前來說，沒有哪一行或哪一個輩份的最多。我們不認為有最好的格式 － 每個人都會根據年齡、資歷、行業以及個人特點而有所不同。共同點，就只是幾樣：最好的英文，最清晰的表達，最真摯的情感，以及最有自我和自信的一面。下面這個Cover Letter例子，屬於我們頗為正常的一份。裡面一切的個人資訊已經被編輯，但屬於一個真實案例，客戶是來自於金融業年資少於10年的年輕人，他希望能夠到一個更大的平台，從事他這幾年來專門負責的工作，於是找了我們幫忙：

Dear Sir/ Madam,

With nearing X years of successful experience in the wealth management industry, I am firmly in the belief that the time is ripe for me to move on to what is considered one of the largest XXX in Hong Kong. I am confident that I possess the qualities necessary to thrive at such an outstanding company and in particular, become a valuable prospect as investment analyst in the Investment Department.

My investment journey as an analyst at fund distribution platforms, hedged funds and wealth management companies have honed my Top-down and Bottom-up approach as well as having personal investment conviction. Indeed, I believe the latter strength is the key to my achievement thus far – I take pride in being independent-minded, which is becoming increasingly important in this ever-expanding complex financial market. The valuable experience at XXX helped me to develop my personal market belief through mutual funds training and provided me a hands-on training in Bloomberg Terminal ( BBG).

From there, notwithstanding a tempting offer from XXX, my intention to move on to bigger and better things in mutual funds and hedge funds led me to secure a precious experience at XXX as XXX, which has provided me a perspective in practical option-trading strategies and the operational side of running a hedged fund. Throughout my time at the company, various stocks were identified and individuals’ fair value via Discount Cashflow model ( DCF ) were calculated. I provided constant economic updates to the Portfolio manager. My particularly proud achievement was to have successfully predicted that XXX would plummet significantly, a full week before it actually happened when no one in Hong Kong saw the same. This is due to my wide-than-usual horizon in terms of the information platforms I would survey. I am uniquely adept at looking into mainstream and niche mainland financial websites and other channels for the most updated information as well as gossips. This is the source of my being able to often come up with contrarian views. On the operation side of XXX, I was also responsible for calculating daily NAV to the portfolio manager.

Lastly, in my current job, being part of the investment team, my duty is to oversee the company’s XXX and set up investment outlook to our XXX. Timely reports and Top-down analysis on various economies were produced to the investment team committee and sales. Last year, I was honoured to play a notable role in securing a XXX return for the portfolio, beating the Hang Seng Index by XXX, and was rewarded to speak as the company’s sole representative on behalf of the research team at XXX 2019, which I greatly enjoyed. Finally, I personally boosted the client base by XXX, a rate well above average in the space of X months.

I look forward to having further discussions with you in an interview. Please contact me at xxx@gmail.com or at +852xxxxxxxx if you have any further enquiries about my academic background and work experience. Thank you for your time and consideration.

Yours faithfully,
XXX

這份 Cover Letter 的厲害之處在於幾個地方：

1. 英語的掌握能力，明顯比一般只是文法沒錯（而我們收到的初稿絕大部份甚至不會能夠做到這點）要好很多，於是句子的組織、節奏感都更像是一個native speaker。而風格上並不是死板的官方英文，有在一些位置故意地更談話feel一點，務求不虛情假意，更真摯。
2. 一些動詞和形容詞的選擇，也是讓這份看起來更加讓人印象深刻。即使內容不是很特別，給人的感受都變得更主動、更自信。
3. 要分享工作經驗，但細節留給CV。這裏是炫耀自己有多少功績的地方，要故事性地展現一些獨有的成就，無論是多大多小，給人感覺你是有自己的位置的。
4. 最後，要做一個有Edge的人。這封信有著強烈的個人定位，明顯有血有肉，知道自己的想法是什麼、態度是什麼。

我們認為，一份好的Cover Letter可以令到HR更加快過濾你，讀完之後可以理解你是一個什麼樣的求職者。甚至在腦海入面已經勾劃出你的影像、你的故事、你的目的。一份好的Cover Letter能夠立體地勾劃你，可以令到HR更加容易去和Line Manager描述、推薦你。

歡迎PM查詢此項服務，我們提供預約見面（Bespoke)，面對面溝通了解，從而雕塑出最好的你。