🌻Docusign(DOCU), Crowdstrike(CRWD)財報結果
上週這兩家公司發表財報了.

這兩天看了一下他們的財報結果. Again, 兩家的表現都很好, 但發現分析師給DOCU的調價(往上)幅度比較多, 就好奇研究了一下SaaS公司是怎麼被估值的. 有興趣的話可以看看(從中學習到很多. 非常推薦一讀):
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/09/blog-post.html

(By the way, 分析師對CRWD的價格調幅沒那麼大, 主因是成長趨緩了. 而DOCU的free cash flow佔營收比, 以及顧客黏著力在這季創了新高, 是讓分析師按讚的幾個原因).

關於CRWD: "The Street is already modeling revenue growth deceleration in 2022 to 36%, down from 60% expected in 2021, which on its own might prove a hurdle for a stock already trading at a high multiple," said Bank of America analyst Tal Liani in a report.

分析師對於DOCU的評價:
• 11位buy; 給的價格分別是: $310, $320 (x2), $330 (x2), $340 (x2), $345, $350, $350, $389
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst continues to view them as a best in class way to play digital transformation trends with strong growth, cash flow and profitability, and a strong competitive position. Power said DocuSign remains one of his top long-term compounding growth ideas.
o Citi: While slightly shy of the double-digit billings beat in recent quarters, DocuSign still delivered a solid 8% beat to Q2 billings, which grew 47% year-over-year, Radke tells investors in a research note.
o Evercore ISI: he calls "another strong quarter." While some may have wanted to see more aggressive Q3 billings guidance, he believes estimates "continue to leave room for upside," Materne said.
o JMP Securities: While revenue growth decelerated to 50% from 58% in Q1, the company is the clear leader in electronic signature and the broader system of agreement having crossed over 1M customers with a $2B run rate this quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that he sees lots of room for growth as DocuSign targets a $50B total addressable market.
o Needham: The analyst commented, "Docusign reported another strong quarter in 2QF22 with typical DOCU upside to revenue and profitability. Sales metrics and growth decelerated Q/Q, as we expected against a massive pandemic quarter, but at a much slower rate than we believe much of the Street was anticipating. 65k net new customers was lower than the 70k - 90 range of CY20 but was still more than 2x greater than any pre-pandemic quarter, highlighting a strong end-market driving 47% billings growth against a strong comp. Commentary on incremental Agreement Cloud demand was positive, suggesting an additional growth tailwind combined with solid international can further aid 2HF22. Although DOCU shares could be lower near-term due to weak 2H OpMg guidance, we think this guidance is conservative, as the recent OM was greater than the pre-pandemic level even with tough comps."
o RBC Capital: The quarter highlighted the sustainability of the company's tailwinds post-pandemic as most of its underlying metrics such as billings and net revenue retention were solid, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that the traction with CLM and Notary was also "impressive".

分析師對於CRWD的評價:
• 12位buy; 給的價格分別是: $300, $310 (x2), $313, $315 (x2) , $305, $320, $325, $330 (x2), $340
• 1位給hold: $280 (from $220 by J.P. Morgan(same))
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst believes the company has significant room for growth with core modules, opportunities with Humio and in cloud workload security, among others, should help drive a continuation of strong growth over a long time horizon.
o BTIG: The company's "strong" Q2 results "cleared every hurdle", even though the buy-side benchmarks may have been slightly higher, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Powell adds that Crowdstrike is clearly gaining share in its core endpoint security target market at a rapid pace and gaining traction with new products across multiple categories.
o Canaccord: The analyst said the stock is down from its recent highs, and he thinks the re-rating creates a more favorable entry point for longer-oriented investors for a foundational security name. He views Crowdstrike as a long-term secular winner in security due to its native cloud platform advantage versus closely held peers in endpoint security combined with platform expansion into tangential segments to capture greater share of security budgets.
o Goldman Sachs: CrowdStrike last night delivered "another beat and raise quarter as the company benefited from another quarter of elevated demand," Essex said. But it traded lower following net new annual recurring revenue growth guidance that was slightly less than investors had hoped for. Essex, nonetheless, said the quarter demonstrated CrowdStrike's "ability to continue to go down market efficiently."
o JMP Securities: The analyst notes the company's Q2 annualized recurring revenue of $1.34B topping his estimate of $1.30B, with "sustained" 70% ARR and revenue growth along with margin upside seen as key highlights for the quarter. Suppiger adds that the metrics reflect Crowdstrike's "strong execution and robust demand environment".
o Mizuho: "very good" fiscal Q2 results. The annual recurring revenue growth of 70% year-over-year "was strong and still nicely surpassed" the Street's 65%-66% estimate, Moskowitz tells investors in a research note. He believes "strong execution can propel" Crowdstrike's stock higher.
o Piper Sandler: The company's metrics "outperformed across the board" in Q2 with 70% annual recurring revenue and revenue growth and record net new customer adds in the quarter, Owens tells investors in a research note.
o RBC Capital: Hedberg adds that CrowdStrike's record pipeline entering Q3 should continue to fuel the company's "land-and-expand" momentum.
o Stifel: Q2 results that he said "exceeded consensus estimates across all major financial metrics." He continues to believe that Crowdstrike's growth opportunity "remains in the early days" despite the company's scale given continued share capture within its core endpoint security market and incremental module adoption on the Falcon Platform, Reback tells investors.
o UBS: the company reported "pretty good" Q2 results against high expectations.

🌻趨勢: 跨境電商 Cross-border commerce
Morgan Stanley:
From our perspective, we think many are underestimating what the cross-border eCommerce demand could ultimately be, once key friction points like FX rates, tax and duties, shipping, language, etc are smoothed—all issues that Global-E directly addresses.

Cross-border ecommerce brings new, high-yield volume: We think elevated levels of cross-border ecommerce (ex-travel) is a structural shift thathas yet to be fully contemplated in MA (and V)'s long-term forecasts. MA's cross-border CNP ex-travel volume was 69% above 2019's level in 2Q and 63% higher in 1Q. Strength reflects both broader ecommerce adoption plus globalization of commerce, as marketplaces and services that reduce cross-border friction (such as those from GLBE) make international online ordering more readily adopted. Early data at V suggests greater cross-border ecommerce spend is persisting even in areas with pre-pandemic levels of international travel. Cross-border transactions also come at a higher yield, making us more optimistic that the trend can bring incremental long-term growth to the networks.

產業的潮流是有連貫性的. 疫情讓電商更發達後, 接下來應該就是加速電商跨境了. 跨境的話, 有很多問題需要解決(稅率, 語言, etc.) 這就需要有公司來做整合的動作. 這種跨境, 也可以想像是omnichannel的一種呈現.

Harley Finkelstein (President of Shopify): "I mean I think commerce in 2021 is cross-border."

🌻SPAC熱潮退卻，初創市值蒸發750億美元
"SPAC熱潮已經退卻。分析顯示，在2月中旬以前完成合併的137家SPAC的總市值已經蒸發25%，市值回落幅度上個月一度超過1,000億美元。"

"像貝萊德(BlackRock Inc., BLK)和富達投資(Fidelity Investments Inc.)這類企業管理的基金，以及許多對沖基金、養老金管理公司和其他一些投資者，都在SPAC的回落中遭受了衝擊，他們在去年年底開始的熱潮中競相投資SPAC。其中許多基金由於在價格還很低的時候就早早入場，所以現在仍坐擁可觀收益。事實上，SPAC市值仍有約2,500億美元，高於一年前的約1,000億美元，反映出這期間股價上漲和新公司上市的影響。

但即便如此，今年年初令人炫目的回報還是讓許多後來者做了接盤俠，扎堆投資所謂穩賺不賠的領域，其永恆的風險可見一斑。在過去的幾個月裡，一些投資者眼睜睜看著帳面財富縮水。"

"股價下跌會在SPAC領域形成惡性循環，因為投資者有權在併購交易前從空白支票公司撤資。一旦SPAC跌破發行價，投資者就更有可能這樣做，而許多SPAC的股價現在正處於這樣的水平。目前，在尚未宣布併購交易的空白支票公司中，超過95%的公司股價低於發行價。

投資者的大規模撤資會讓已經上市的空白支票公司手上的現金大幅減少，讓其更難實現業務目標，並可能加劇股價跌勢。"

https://on.wsj.com/3n6JznC

🌻BNPL (buy now pay later)
But most BNPL providers including Affirm, Klarna and Afterpay have been losing money despite breakneck revenue growth as they invest heavily in marketing to win share. Sweden-based Klarna’s credit losses more than doubled in the second quarter. Affirm has projected adjusted operating losses of $50m-$55m for the fiscal year that ended June 30.

The path to profitability for many of these companies was to achieve massive scale, analysts said.

https://www.ft.com/content/ca201a37-a16d-4223-b123-04d38350a972

Pictures: 一葉知秋; from EarningsWhispers

感謝參加的來賓，大家的參與讓“風夜狂想曲”此展覽上完美的經驗！謝謝！展覽將持續到11/25 ~歡迎大家蒞臨參觀！／Thanks everyone who came to the opening! You made it such a wonderful experience! I have absolutely no words to express what an awesome night it was! The exhibition runs through November 25th! ／Gracias a todos los que pasaron por la apertura de la exhibición! Realmente hicieron de ella algo hermosísimo! No tengo palabras para describir lo fantástico que fue! La exhibición queda inaugurada hasta el día 25 de noviembre!

風夜狂想曲 Rhapsody on a Windy Night
Marina Burana solo exhibition 明蓮花個展
2018.11.03 － 2018.11.25
Opening 開幕茶會：11.03 (六) 17:00
Venue 展覽地點：新樂園藝術空間 SLY art space
Address 地址：台北市中山區中山北路二段11巷15-2號
No. 15-2, Lane 11, Section 2, Zhong Shan N. Rd., Zhongshan District, Taipei, Taiwan.

Music 樂手: Musa の大里 Trio / Ing Lan Chang (flute 長笛）
Photography 攝影師: 黃昱寧 Carol
Video 視頻: Martin Kuo
Catering 餐飲業: La Caja de Música 樂盒子
Souvenirs 紀念品: 饞工坊 Antojos De Estrella & Marina Burana 明蓮花
詩讀 Poem read by: Amber Ma

－－－－－

風夜狂想曲-介紹

「風夜狂想曲」是T.S. Eliot的詩。這首詩是本系列畫作背後的靈感來源，所以我選它作為這次展覽的名稱。
這首詩講述某人夜裡在街上徘徊、迷失在自己的思緒，他看著自己周遭的世界，而他也是這個世界的一部份。詩中描述了記憶等短暫的東西、存在的肉體性(也就是物質世界)之間的拉扯。這首詩感覺像是擺盪在記憶之流和家庭生活之間的一支舞(或是如我剛才所說的，是一種拉扯)，它時不時會打斷陳述者的遊蕩，因而創造出一些揮之不去的物質與非物質意象。

十二點鐘。
沿著掌握在月光合成中的
街道的各處地方
在悄悄施展著月亮的魔術
消融著的回憶的立足點
以及所有它的清楚關係
它的各種分歧與準確性,
我經過的每盞街燈
像一面決定命運的鼓在敲響,
而通過那些黑洞洞的空間
午夜在搖撼記憶中過去的一切
像一個瘋子搖撼一株死了的天竺葵。

我徘徊在這首詩裡時，感受到一股衝動；我想重新定義某些意象，把它轉化成我自己的回憶和事實。我私密的存在論。

記憶無情地拋出的
是一堆扭曲了的東西;
海灘上一根扭曲的樹枝
已沖得光而且滑
好像世界暴露了
它骷髏的秘密
僵直而白。

我在讀這首詩的時候，腦中馬上浮現了海的意象。我和海洋一直有很深的緣份。我人生大部份的時間都在凝望廣大的海洋或悠游其中。我們游泳時一進到水裡，彷若就和外界、和水面上的一切隔絕開來了。忽然間，各種聲響都變得模糊、扭曲，我們的視線也不若在陸地上時那麼清楚。身體感覺變輕了，一切感覺都像在夢境裡。現實以新的樣貌呈現，我們隱約感到回到水面呼吸的需求；這些都和回憶相似。當我們進到裡(遊走在我們自己的回憶裡)，水面(物質世界)看起來就像存在於另一個平面，那是我們很快就會回去的地方，但我們其實可以在水下再待久一點，探索無邊的未知，還有那可能會讓我們窒息或帶給我們喜悅的神秘宇宙。
我發現了回憶和水下世界之間的關聯，並起把它們轉化成我的畫作，它們的共通點就是流動變化的色彩和各種交錯的形狀，就像無情地拋出一堆扭曲東西的記憶。
我很早就決定不要把重點放在詩中呈現的回憶和物質世界之間的拉扯，還有兩者的似非而是的並存關係。我想探索回憶所帶來的複雜意象，還有它們的流動和軔性。
上述兩個主題(回憶和物質世界)間的拉扯在詩的結尾找到答案。詩中的主角感到沮喪挫敗，他的存在是無可避免的現實，他只存在於無限循環的過往畫面和快速萎縮的肉體之中。

燈說,
“四點鐘,
這裡是門上的門牌。
回憶!
你掌握鑰匙,
那盞小小的燈在樓梯上留下一個環形。
登樓。

床是鋪好的;牙刷掛在牆上,
把鞋脫在門口,睡吧,做好一輩子的準備。 ”
利刃的最後轉動。

但這首詩同時也展現了物質世界和精神世界有多麼交錯不清。一方面有牙刷、鞋子，「為生活準備」等屬於有限世界的東西，但另一方面又有睡眠、黑暗、無意識等閉上眼睛進入最高深莫測的心靈狀態這樣的東西。在在都留給讀者一股無力感，讓他們看到到頭來物質世界還是戰勝了心識偶爾會踏上的道路；一條不切實際、沒有結果的路。
這種複雜的關係成為我畫作中拉扯/舞蹈的根基。但當我投入創作過程時，這股拉扯變得不再那麼重要，我轉而探索另一層拉扯關係：用顏色親密的舞動代表回憶。
我認為這次的展覽是在歌頌個人心靈的神遊。

Rhapsody on a Windy Night－Introduction

“Rhapsody on a Windy Night” is the title of a poem by T.S. Eliot. I chose this title as the name of my exhibition because I was inspired by this piece to paint this series of paintings.
The poem talks about a person wandering through the night, lost in thought, a mere witness and also part of the world around him. It describes a struggle between the most transient of things, memory, and the physicality of existence, the material world. It feels like a dance (or, as I said, a struggle) between the flow of memory and the domesticity of life, which interrupts the wanderings of the narrator, creating, thus, a convergence of material and immaterial images that somehow haunts him.

Twelve o'clock.
Along the reaches of the street
Held in a lunar synthesis,
Whispering lunar incantations
Dissolve the floors of memory
And all its clear relations,
Its divisions and precisions,
Every street lamp that I pass
Beats like a fatalistic drum,
And through the spaces of the dark
Midnight shakes the memory
As a madman shakes a dead geranium. (...)

As I wandered through the poem, I felt the urge of redefining certain imagery, to translate it into my own personal world of memory and facts. My intimate ontology.

(…) The memory throws up high and dry
A crowd of twisted things;
A twisted branch upon the beach
Eaten smooth, and polished
As if the world gave up
The secret of its skeleton,
Stiff and white. (...)

One element that immediately came up in my mind as I read the poem was the sea. I have always been deeply connected to the sea. I spent most of my life looking at the immensity of the ocean or swimming in its waters. When we swim, once we are underwater, it's as if we were no longer connected to the outside world, with what happens on the surface. Suddenly, the sounds are muffled, distorted. What we see is not as clear as what we see on land. Our bodies feel lighter and everything somehow seems like a dream. Reality takes on new dimensions and then there's the looming need to go back to the surface to breath. Kind of like memory. Once we are underwater (“wanderers in our personal memories”) the surface (“the material world”) seems something that's in another plane of existence. Something to what we will go back sometime soon, but that can actually wait a little longer as we explore the vastness of the unknown, of that enigmatic cosmos that has the potential of killing us and also giving us joy.
The connection I find between memory and being underwater translated into these paintings, whose common thread is the flow of changing color, the intermingling of shapes and forms, just like memory, which throws up high and dry a crowd of twisted things.
Early on, I decided not to focus on the struggle between memory and the material world, their impossible cohabitation, as it is presented in the poem, and, instead, try to explore the complicated flow of images that memory brings, their movement and their resilience.

The struggle between the two topics mentioned above (memory and the material world) finds its resolution in a sort of frustration or defeat experienced by the wanderer at the very end of the poem, the unavoidable reality of his existence, that of being a blur in an endless cycle of dead images and a rapidly waning materiality:

(…) The lamp said,
"Four o'clock,
Here is the number on the door.
Memory!
You have the key,
The little lamp spreads a ring on the stair,
Mount.
The bed is open; the tooth-brush hangs on the wall,
Put your shoes at the door, sleep, prepare for life."

The last twist of the knife.

But at the same time it shows how inextricable the material and the immaterial worlds are: on the one hand, the tooth-brush, the shoes, “preparing for life”, that is, things of this finite world; and on the other, closing the eyes, entering into the most unfathomable state of mind: sleep, darkness, unconsciousness. It leaves the reader with a sense of hopelessness, somehow. It shows how the material world, at the end of the day, wins over the unsubstantial, over the fruitless paths the mind takes sometimes.
This inextricable relation was the one that prepared the ground for the struggle/dance that appeared in my paintings. But as I got lost in the process, this struggle became tangential and gave way to the exploration of another struggle: the intimate dance of color as a representation of memory.
I would say this exhibition is a celebration of the personal wanderings of the mind.

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