我的最新下線。不讀牛津碩士，跟我做保險。#林作保險

#Repost @alvinchiu_insurance with @get_repost
・・・
Why I decide not to pursue my Master’s at Oxford

Don't get me wrong - I’m not saying that the entire system of higher education is fraudulent. In fact, I completely agree that there are still no other better places capable of carrying out certain functions of an university – for instances, promotion of critical thinking and contribution to the betterment of humanity.

But there are more precious lessons that university doesn’t teach you, and it took me years to figure out why higher education isn’t always an investment that always pays off.

Walk your own, different path

The training of higher education equips you with the tools to study a problem. But unis never teach you how to seize the opportunity and monetize it, turning vision into action. The atmosphere in universities globally give you an impression that all you have to worry for throughout your degree is how to get good marks and land on a perfect job, that is, high-paying while maintaining a work-life balance that has been everyone’s dream life. In short, they want you to follow the crowd.

But life is too short for one to succeed by climbing a crowded ladder. The biggest fear of 21st century human beings isn’t anything material – poverty is greatly reduced from the second half of 20th century, full-scale war becomes unlikely given the complexity of our global political structure and interdependency among countries. Our biggest fear, is irrelevance. That million of jobs will be replaced by automated robots and computer programs means job security (so as certainty about one’s future) is pretty much a vanishing delusion. You either take risk to become the game-changer, or you stay comfortable and let the game changes you. #alvinchiu_insurance

【 蘋果是否將從大中國夢初醒？】

華爾街日報近日一則標題為「庫克及蘋果賭注全下在中國，然後病毒來襲」（Tim Cook and Apple Bet Everything on China. Then Coronavirus Hit. ） 深度報導文章，極為精彩，尤其值得在台灣的我們好好細讀。

這篇文章的關鍵字是vulnerability，中文很難精確地翻譯，在本文脈絡底下，它指的是「蘋果電腦過度依賴中國，導致本身的脆弱或易受到傷害」。記者很用心，爬梳了蘋果自從2000年進軍中國市場的過程，當然也提到了富士康及郭台銘的角色。

記者生動地描繪了「富士康-蘋果-中國」的三角複雜互賴關係（entanglement of interdependency），包括中國地方政府協助富士康鄭州廠線上招募25萬員工。中國的勞動成本優勢在近年當然不若過往，但相較台灣或美國等已開發國家或近已開發國家，還是頗為可觀。

在討論外商至中國投資時，勞動成本優勢是一個最常被提及的面向，但精確的說法應該是「直接勞動成本」。而比較容易被忽略的面向是「間接勞動成本」，也就是工業聚落（industrial cluster）的正面效應。簡言之，蘋果在中國享有三百萬間接勞工的優勢，包括富士康及其它供應鏈廠所雇用的技術性與非技術性勞工。

蘋果並非未曾評估過度依賴中國的脆弱性。2015年，蘋果內部曾提議將一條生產線移至越南，但這構想後來被公司內部高層決策人士否決，原因是風險過大，以及不願損失中國的市場。

這樣的依賴，不但讓蘋果在美中貿易戰中遭到波及，在這次武漢肺炎疫情更是損失慘重。蘋果日前公開表示，可能無法在這一季達到銷售預期，結果蘋果市值應聲倒地，瞬間蒸發了一千億美元。你能想像損失一千億美元是怎樣的光景嗎？這就是過度依賴中國市場及員工導致的脆弱性。文中列舉了蘋果在中國遇到的三大挫敗：川普在美中貿易戰中對中國出口所課的關稅、iPhone在中國市場銷售不如預期以及這次武漢疫情所造成的缺工。

本文記者顯然對產業本身有一定了解，除了政策面，記者也從產品生產特性比較了三星及蘋果的生產策略差異。三星將產線移至越南，可行性原因之一是Galaxy手機使用膠裝組件，利於自動化生產，降低勞工的需求數量。而追求產品品質及內外觀質感的蘋果手機需要大量員工進行精細螺絲組裝零件，這也是蘋果很難移出中國的原因。

美國政界討論美國企業是否不該過度依賴中國已有時日，特別是川普三年多前上任時就曾信誓旦旦說要將美國企業搬回美國。但生產供應鏈常常是牽一髮動全身，既不是美國企業也非美國政府可以單方決定。但這波武漢肺炎疫情，將中國勞動力的脆弱面及中國投資環境的不穩定性赤裸裸地攤在全世界面前。

美國是否該與中國脫鉤（decoupling），也成了美國政界這陣子的熱門討論議題。來自佛羅里達州的共和黨參議員Rick Scott在2月28日的一場華府智庫Hudson Institute活動中就大力鼓吹美中脫鉤，他在十分鐘演說中使用了25次「中共」（Communist China）一詞。Scott向來就以反中聞名，但在這次肺炎疫情中，他的言論顯然得到更多議員同袍支持。

不要將雞蛋放在同一個籃子，是一個古老的道理。蘋果花了快二十年，總算慢慢體會這句話的意思。而在台灣的我們，更應該對過度依賴中國的脆弱性瞭然於心。過去將近三十年來，數以萬計的台商跑去中國，有的賺到第一桶金，也有的鎩羽而歸。也許這一波肺炎疫情，讓我們都能看清楚過度依賴中國只會讓我們更加脆弱。

華爾街日報3.4折訂購優惠：

https://reurl.cc/M7p8ev

護台胖犬 劉仕傑
Instagram: old_dog_chasing_ball

【胖犬電子報】免費訂閱連結：https://reurl.cc/yypqq8

【大專學界 同氣連枝】

港大民調風波　
時任港大學生會會長張韻琪冒雨在校長府要求鄭耀宗校長交代有關干預港大民調的一幕，引起社會強烈迴響。其時社會輿論直指鄭耀宗教授為幕後推手，唯時任港大學生會幹事苦無對策，情況陷入膠著狀態。後來，時任幹事表示希望其他大專院校的同學到場聲援，結果一呼百應，成為學界一時佳話。　

各校學生會隨即召開學聯常委會會議並草擬聲明，商討如何透過學聯這個平台來支援港大同學。經過商討，各大專院校負責校外動員以及物流等工作，而港大學生會則專注校內遊說和動員，運動之聲勢一時無兩。後鄭耀宗從英國返港，港大學生連同各校學生會發起接機及留守校長府行動。全賴港大同學的參與以及學聯各院校的支援，校方成立獨立調查委員會，鄭耀宗最終辭去校長一職。

學聯其後亦發起超過二千人的遊行，要求正在休會的立法會重開會議，處理及調查干預民調事件。

回想昔日眾院校學生會齊心合力，貫徹「一方有難，八方支援」的精神。凡此種種，皆因大家都深明大專學界唇齒相依，必須共同抵抗政權的重重打壓。過往大專學界互相扶持，今後都將團結一致地捍衛我們共同相信的價值。　

陳冠康事件
二零一二年，由陳冠康擔任會長的港大學生會豪花三十八期緊急儲備，於全港八份報章刊登全版聲明反對「黑金政治」，把矛頭指向其時為行政長官候選人的梁振英。在有關聲明刊登前，幹事會及時事委員會未有充分諮詢基本會員，引起港大學生會評議會及會員嘩然反對。

除了配合港大學生會內部的行動，如召開評議會對其時失職的公職人員提出不信任動議及籌備中山起義等外，七間大專院校的學生會亦發表聯署聲明，質疑陳冠康做法。

港大學生會屢受中共覬覦，痛遭滲透。唯各校均左港大學生會危急存亡之時紛紛伸出援手，體現互助精神。即使港大學生會不再在學聯此一聯會內，亦應與其他學生會相互守望，以免學生會成為中共入侵學界的漏洞。

[Interdependency and Synergy among all Tertiary Institutions]

HKU Public Opinion Programme (POP) Scandal

In 2000, Miss Wan–Ki Cheung, President of Hong Kong University Students’ Union (HKUSU), waited outside the University Lodge and demanded a reply from Dr Yiu-Chung Cheng, Vice- Chancellor of HKU, on the HKU POP Scandal under the incessant rain. While Dr. Cheng was rumoured to be the architect behind the scene amid the much repercussion, the situation remained a deadlock with no feasible solution from the executive committee of HKUSU. Luckily, the subsequent support from students from other tertiary institutions at the call of the Union was fortified and widely-praised.

The standing committee meeting of the Hong Kong Federation of Students (HKFS) was then held to draft statements and discuss form of assistance to HKU students. A consensus was reached that while other institutions were responsible for external mobilisation and logistics, HKUSU focused on intra-varsity promotion and mobilisation. Such cooperation surely boosted the morale of the movement. Upon the return of Dr. Cheng from the U.K., HKUSU and other institutions mobilised students to receive the Vice-Chancellor and assemble outside the University Lodge. It was only under such participation and cooperation of HKU students and HKFS members that an independent investigation commission was formed, leading to the eventual resignation of Dr Cheng from the position of Vice-Chancellor.

A demonstration consisting of more than 2000 citizens was also initiated by HKFS later to demand the resumption of Legislative Council meeting to handle and investigate the Scandal.

Such close cooperation among all institutions simply demonstrates the spirit of mutual assistance --- whenever there is a difficulty within one of the institutions, it is a plight to all. All tertiary institutions are interdependent and counting on one another for defending against the series of suppressions from the regime. Such synergy will continue to be passed on to safeguard the values that we mutually embrace.

Dan K.H. Chan Incident

In 2012, a huge amount of HKD$380 000 of the contingency reserve was lavished by Dan K.H. Chan, President of HKUSU, in issuing a full-page anti-political collusion statement on all eight newspapers in Hong Kong, in attempt to lambaste Mr C.Y. Leung, the then candidate for Chief Executive. The insufficient consultation by the executive committee and the Current Affairs Committee, HKUSU Council on issuing the statement induced much sentiments and opposition from the Union Council and members.

On one hand, the seven institutions assisted the internal actions of HKUSU, namely passing regret motions on irresponsible personnels in Council meetings and organising an assembly at the Sun Yat-Sen Place; on the other, they also issued statements to doubt and criticise Dan Chan’s approach.

HKUSU has long been a succulent prey to the Chinese Communists, and was eventually, and sadly, penetrated. Such assistance and cooperation among all institutions shall never only rest with these predicaments of HKUSU. Even though the Union has already withdrawn from HKFS, the synergy and close relation shall stand strong in avoiding any loopholes for communist intrusion to take place in any of the students’ unions.