美國《華爾街日報》在他91歲生日之際，發表了一篇The Soul of Black Conservatism（一個黑人保守主義者的靈魂），恰如其份地讚賞了這位傑出的智者：湯瑪斯・索維爾
#看博談 #上報 #何清漣

https://www.secretchina.com/news/b5/2021/08/01/979741.html?utm_source=facebookpost&utm_medium=kzgfacebookpost&utm_campaign=monfacebookpost

#Opinion by Lau Sai Leung 劉細良｜"AOs’ conservatism and propensity to maintain the status quo is in fact a built-in force in the government to check and balance various “political reforms” initiated by politicians. The final advice from late Governor of Hong Kong MacLehose in 1982 before he left his post is: “Make sure your decision can get out of the Governor House.” Even reformist MacLehose was kept in check by the colonial civil officials. The so-called “AOs’ party conspiring to rebel”, which is made out of nothing, is just another unjust political accusation in the Hong Kong Cultural Revolution."

Read more: https://bit.ly/3sQzUkL

"政務官的保守性、維持現狀，本來是政府Build in的制衡力量，防止政客各式各樣「改革大計」。麥理浩總督1982年離任前最後的忠告是：「確保你的決策能夠走出港督府。」連大有為改革派的麥理浩也面對英國殖民地文官們掣肘，今日所謂「謀逆AO黨」，無中生有，徒令香港文革又多添一宗政治寃案。"
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John Huber 最新在 Graham and Doddsville 的訪談提到一點跟我在去年 12/31 總結的相似

“One of the mistakes that I've made over time is
being too conservative, I think. Conservatism, for
good reason, is considered a virtue in the value investing community. I'm a conservative investor by
nature, but there are drawbacks to being too conservative. I just read a note by my friend, Rob Vinall who runs a firm called RV Capital. He made a great point –banks that are aggressive when underwriting loans end up going bust, but so do banks that are too conservative over time,because they’ll miss writing the loans that are most profitable, which is needed to pay for the inevitable
mistakes. As investors, our goal should be accuracy when evaluating a business. You don't do yourself
any favors by being overly conservative at the expense of being accurate... You should demand a margin of safety over an accurate assessment of the business and its value, but your goal should not be to conservatively analyze the business, your goal should be to accurately analyze the business...I've noticed that a lot of my mistakes have come from when I've been conservative at the expense of accuracy, and this has carried a heavy opportunity cost over the years.”

價投的基因讓我們很保守，讓我們不太虧錢，但另一方面這個基因也限制了我們。我們的目標不是很保守的去評估公司，而是盡量正確的去評估公司。

Pabrai 在訪談的時候拿 Google 為例，他說當時他把 Google 的 Other bet 都當零，就當白送。但這樣就讓他對價格的區間守得很死，換句話說就是太保守。

平衡很重要，太保守、衝太快都不好

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📚本日の参考📚
コールド・リーディング: 人の心を一瞬でつかむ技術 を Amazon でチェック！ https://amzn.to/3kQT3jh

コミュ障でも５分で増やせる超人脈術 を Amazon でチェック！ https://amzn.to/2VBZMTK

Bryan M. Buechner et al. (2020)Political Ideology and Executive Functioning: The Effect of Conservatism and Liberalism on Cognitive Flexibility and Working Memory Performance.Social Psychological and Personality Science

Researched by http://ch.nicovideo.jp/paleo #今なら
#Dラボとオーディオブックが概要欄から無料

哈柏十年經濟有功但過份保守〈隨意門〉2015-10-20 b

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謎米香港 www.memehk.com
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英國保守黨領袖只顧做生意，無領導國際眼光〈隨意門〉2015-10-20 c

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