110年8月 Salesclub 兩場線上活動(邀請兩位醫生)
兩場線上活動將以Teams會議線上舉行，榮幸邀請到衛福部桃園醫院胸腔外科主任、台北榮總醫院皮膚部主任-兩位醫生擔任嘉賓主講者，跟大家線上互動認識^^

第一場活動嘉賓：衛福部桃園醫院胸腔外科主任--謝義山醫生
學經歷：前新光醫院胸腔外科主任
美國賓州大學醫院研修
台灣大學醫院胸腔外科
國立陽明交通大學畢業

第二場活動嘉賓：台北榮總醫院皮膚部主任--陳志強醫生
學經歷：
Education:
M.D., National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan
Ph.D., National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan

Career:
2006.5 ~ 2016.2 Attending physician, Department of Dermatology, Taipei Veterans General Hospital
2016.3 ~ present Chief, Division of Dermatologic diagnosis, Department of Dermatology, Taipei Veterans General Hospital

Award:
2015 Best paper award: University of Southern California pathology retreat
2015 Young Investigator Travel Award: Society for Investigative Dermatology, Montagna Symposium on the Biology of Skin

歡迎陽明、交大校友學長姐們一起來參加活動!(北中南校友都歡迎線上同聚)

活動皆以Teams視訊會議舉辦，我們會於活動前事先email通知線上會議參加者會議進入網址。

👍第一場活動主題：肺癌知多少? 最新預防與治療一次告訴你
日期：8/13(五)
時間：晚上19:30-21:30

👍第二場活動主題：毛髮再生新契機
日期：8/27(五)
時間：晚上19:30-21:30

活動議程：
19:30~20:00 參與者彼此交流互動
20:00~21:00 專題分享
21:00~21:30 Q&A

【注意事項】

★ 本次活動採預先付款，活動費用：200元/人
(兩場活動參加，優惠價為350元/人)
★本次活動所收費用，將依據參加場次人數，全數以該場次主講嘉賓名字公益捐款
請您上網報名且匯款後填寫您的匯款銀行、姓名與匯款帳號後五碼，請您匯款至兆豐銀行(銀行代碼：017) 竹科分行、帳號215137-71862、戶名：黎香君

【聯絡資訊】
主辦單位：交大台北校友會Salesclub
活動聯絡人：王先生(0919-651186)
匯款問題請詢問香君財務長 (0978-230838)

張忠謀對半導體供應鏈在地化的致詞引起矚目，我將全文的翻譯，分享給大家：

張忠謀APEC非正式領袖會議致詞全文：（中文在後）

This Informal Retreat has been called to discuss how Asia-Pacific can collaborate to move through the COVID health crisis, and to accelerate the post-COVID economic recovery. Chinese Taipei will address these two topics specifically.
On COVID-19, Chinese Taipei has had an excellent record so far. With a population of 23 million, over the last year and half, and in spite of a recent surge which has now abated, we have had a total of about fifteen thousand infected cases (.07% of the population), and 763 deaths (3 out of one hundred thousand).
We believe that our experience and know-how gained can help other APEC members. We have been, and continue to be willing to help. We have donated masks and other medical supplies to other APEC members in the past and are ready and willing to share our anti-COVID-19 know-how with you.
At the same time, WE NEED HELP! Our vaccination coverage at present is less than 20%. Although the U.S. and Japan have been generous in donating vaccines to us, and our private institutions have succeeded in procuring ten million doses of vaccines, we still need more vaccines, and need them sooner! Most other APEC members need help as well. We must ask for help from the APEC members that possess and produce more vaccines than they themselves need.
On re-vitalizing Post-COVID economy, Chinese Taipei urges free trade among APEC members and in the world, after giving consideration to vital national security needs.
In the past seven decades, free trade has enabled vibrant growth in most APEC economies. Free trade is merely a way in which each APEC economy contributes its own competitive advantage and every APEC member benefits.
Recently, however, we note with concern the tendency to want self-sufficiency or “on-shoring” of semiconductor chips. We must point out that in the past many decades free trade has greatly helped the advance of semiconductor technology. In turn, the ever greater complexity of the technology has caused the supply chain to go “off-shore”.
It would be highly impractical to try to turn back the clock. If it is tried, cost will go up and technology advance may slow. What may happen is that after hundreds of billions and many years have been spent, the result will still be a not-quite-self-sufficient, and high-cost supply chain.
We do recognize national security concerns, and believe that for security applications, a self-sufficient supply chain within one’s own borders is prudent. However, for the much larger civilian market, a supply chain substantially based on free trade system is by far the best approach.
In summary, on COVID-19, Chinese Taipei can help, is ready and willing to help with its know-how, but also needs more vaccines sooner, along with many other APEC members. On Post-COVID economic re-vitalization, Chinese Taipei urges free trade, after giving consideration to vital national security concerns.

（中文翻譯）

此次非正式領袖會議召開的目的是討論亞太地區應如何合作以度過新型冠狀病毒（COVID-19）疫情危機，並加速疫後經濟復甦。中華台北將就這兩個議題表達看法。
面對新型冠狀病毒（COVID-19）疫情，中華台北迄今維持傑出防疫紀錄。我們有兩千三百萬人口，儘管近期疫情曾一度升溫，但目前業已趨緩，在過去超過一年半的時間中，總確診病例數約為一萬五千例（佔總人口0.07%），其中死亡病例數為763例（約為十萬分之三）。
相信我們在過程中得到的經驗與知識能夠協助其他APEC成員。我們持續地願意提供協助。過去我們曾捐贈口罩與其他醫療物資予其他APEC成員，現在也準備好與你們分享我們抗疫的知識。
同時，我們也需要幫助！目前我們的疫苗注射覆蓋率低於20%。雖然美國與日本已慷慨捐贈疫苗，我們的民間機構也已成功採購一千萬劑，我們仍然需要更多數量的疫苗，而且需要儘快取得！其他多數的APEC成員也需要幫助。我們需要向目前擁有並生產超過他們自身所需疫苗數量的APEC成員尋求協助。
針對疫後經濟復甦，中華台北敦促APEC成員，在考慮重要國家安全需求後，彼此間及與全球進行自由貿易。
在過去70年，自由貿易使多數APEC經濟體蓬勃發展。自由貿易僅是各APEC經濟體貢獻自己的競爭優勢，而其他APEC成員藉此受惠的方法。
然而近來，我們很關切要求「境內」半導體晶片自給自足的趨勢。我們必需指出，過去數十年的自由貿易大幅促進半導體技術發展。因此，越趨複雜的技術致使供應鏈走向「境外」。
試圖讓時光倒流是相當不切實際的，如果嘗試讓時光倒流，不僅成本將會提升以及技術的進步可能放緩。在花費了數千億與許多年的時間之後，結果仍將是無法充分自給自足且成本很高的供應鏈。
我們認同國家安全的顧慮確實存在，也相信針對國安應用，在國境內存有一個能夠自給自足的供應鏈是審慎的作法。然而，針對規模大得許多的民間市場，一個基於自由貿易體系的供應鏈是最好的作法。
總結來說，針對新型冠狀病毒（COVID-19）疫情，中華台北能夠協助，我們也願意、並準備好以自身的知識與經驗提供協助，但也和其他許多APEC成員一樣，需要儘快取得更多疫苗。關於疫後經濟復甦，中華台北敦促在考慮關鍵國家安全需求後，應該採取自由貿易。

🌻高速成長股的跌幅

這幾年, 越來越多人投資成長股, 尤其是高速成長股, 是一件很好的事情. 但很多投資人應該只看到高速成長股帶來的漲幅, 卻沒看到另一面.

一位分析師做的研究: 除了dot.com那時候的大跌, 其他時候, 高速成長軟體股的跌幅平均是25-27%.

下圖是截至05/17的跌幅(未包括SPAC). 是-37%.

成長股很受到投資人的青睞, 也很容易變成動能股. 當動能失去的時候, 就像重力加速度一樣, 跌速跟跌幅會很快很大.

投資成長股, 尤其是高速成長股, 對我來說, 要不就是佛系, 要不就是練盤感&操作. 可以看適合自己的方法&投資的目標是甚麼(而其實成長股經過去年的大漲幅, 大跌前的估值也已經很高了).

一位財富已自由的財經名嘴的名言:
"Discipline trumps conviction." (紀律勝過信念)

可以跟這句放在一起看:
"I learned that you may be right, but if enough people believe you're wrong the markets can really hurt you." --BlackRock bond chief Rick Rieder

至於成長股還能不能買呢? 可以參考下面這兩段:
While tech stocks have taken the biggest hit from rising inflation concerns, some investors see the recent retreat as an opportunity to buy fast-growing companies.

“Within tech, there are still some companies that look very cheap,” said Jane Shoemake, client portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors. “If you believe in the longer-term trends supporting these companies, you should be buying.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-markets-dow-update-05-18-2021-11621323328

🌻FTCH, FVRR, PINS, PYPL, ROKU電話會議內容已整理好. 可到部落格那邊去看: https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/

之前先錄了一段影片, 解釋我是怎麼做財報內容&電話會議內容整理的: https://youtu.be/vvkrs6CiWdw

🎯上次有提, 九月份會來做年報財報的導讀. 現在台灣的疫情那麼嚴重, 我有考慮在這個周末來進行, 這樣有興趣的讀者可以利用宅在家的時間來學習. Anyway. 如果決定提早做的話, 我週四會將訊息貼在這邊.

🌻關於市場
Markets are likely to be volatile until additional economic data provides a clearer picture, said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Advisors. “I don’t think we could know anything really about which way inflation is going to go until September, but the market is unable to wait that long.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-markets-dow-update-05-20-2021-11621496568

🌻關於cryptocurrency
“[Cryptocurrency] is no longer an asterisk for the general market,” Ms. Krosby said. “It seems like it’s becoming very much part of the general market, and questions whether or not the selloff in bitcoin is representative of concerns over risk-on risk-off over the larger market.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-markets-dow-update-05-20-2021-11621496568

🌻營運分析: 如何看一家公司在疫情後有沒有失去競爭力?

The bounceback was largely to be expected after a dismal comparable quarter last year, when stores had to close due to Covid-19 restrictions. A comparison to pre-pandemic numbers yields a more sober outlook: Measured against the same quarter in 2019, Kohl’s net sales declined 4.2%, while comparable sales at Macy’s fell 10.5%.

One positive surprise was a turn to profitability for the two department store giants; analysts polled by FactSet had expected a net loss from both. But that was partly thanks to factors outside of the retailers’ control: Port congestion has led to less inventory across the apparel industry, leading to more full-priced selling. Inventory declined 25% at Kohl’s compared with a year earlier and fell 14% at Macy’s.

Kohl’s shares fell 10% after it reported Thursday, and Macy’s is down around 5% since reporting earlier in the week. Yet they are both trading at prices higher than pre-pandemic levels.

That seems hard to justify. The truth is that department stores were losing customers before and during the pandemic, and will probably continue to do so after it. While Kohl’s and Macy’s sales remain below pre-pandemic levels, off-price and big-box retailers have seen their apparel sales increase. At TJX’s Marmaxx division, which houses T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, sales in the quarter ended May 1 were up 14.4% compared with the same period in 2019. Target’s apparel sales grew 29% over the comparable period.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/return-to-normal-not-good-enough-for-department-stores-11621530127

🌻通膨. The magic number 4.

Mackintosh 表示，經濟復甦提高通膨也有利股市，聯準會 (Fed) 在這個階段也很樂意忽略通膨，因為經濟成長正是政府想要的。但當通膨進一步上升，壓縮到股票報酬率時， 4% 通膨率將成為關鍵點。

據統計自 1957 年標普 500 指數創立以來，美國曾有 9 次通膨率高於 4%，這其中的 8 次，股市在 3 個月後下跌。只有 2005 年突破 4% 又隨即回落，因而未影響大盤。
https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4647748

WSJ原文在此:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflations-magic-number-is-four-11621355006

🌻附上本周發表財報的公司一覽表(在下方留言處)

🌻專門介紹美國豪宅的YouTuber。宅在家沒事可以欣賞一下。
https://m.youtube.com/user/enesyilmazer

Pictures: from earningswhispers.com; It's always a pleasant surprise when animal friends visited. This time, three in a low.
一次有三隻鹿來拜訪.
影片: https://youtu.be/TxLTGe9IdWA

「彌敦道政交所」

主持：湛國揚
嘉賓：林和立 (時事評論員)

題目：《立秋派對 The Retreat》

逢星期四 9:00 ~ 10:00 pm

Facebook:
https://facebook.com/NathanRoadPoliticsExchange

「彌敦道政交所」

主持：湛國揚
嘉賓：林和立 (時事評論員)

題目：《立秋派對 The Retreat》

逢星期四 9:00 ~ 10:00 pm

Facebook:
https://facebook.com/NathanRoadPoliticsExchange

「彌敦道政交所」

主持：湛國揚
嘉賓：林和立 (時事評論員)

題目：《立秋派對 The Retreat》

逢星期四 9:00 ~ 10:00 pm

Facebook:
https://facebook.com/NathanRoadPoliticsExchange