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🌻Docusign(DOCU), Crowdstrike(CRWD)財報結果
上週這兩家公司發表財報了.

這兩天看了一下他們的財報結果. Again, 兩家的表現都很好, 但發現分析師給DOCU的調價(往上)幅度比較多, 就好奇研究了一下SaaS公司是怎麼被估值的. 有興趣的話可以看看(從中學習到很多. 非常推薦一讀):
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/09/blog-post.html

(By the way, 分析師對CRWD的價格調幅沒那麼大, 主因是成長趨緩了. 而DOCU的free cash flow佔營收比, 以及顧客黏著力在這季創了新高, 是讓分析師按讚的幾個原因).

關於CRWD: "The Street is already modeling revenue growth deceleration in 2022 to 36%, down from 60% expected in 2021, which on its own might prove a hurdle for a stock already trading at a high multiple," said Bank of America analyst Tal Liani in a report.

分析師對於DOCU的評價:
• 11位buy; 給的價格分別是: $310, $320 (x2), $330 (x2), $340 (x2), $345, $350, $350, $389
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst continues to view them as a best in class way to play digital transformation trends with strong growth, cash flow and profitability, and a strong competitive position. Power said DocuSign remains one of his top long-term compounding growth ideas.
o Citi: While slightly shy of the double-digit billings beat in recent quarters, DocuSign still delivered a solid 8% beat to Q2 billings, which grew 47% year-over-year, Radke tells investors in a research note.
o Evercore ISI: he calls "another strong quarter." While some may have wanted to see more aggressive Q3 billings guidance, he believes estimates "continue to leave room for upside," Materne said.
o JMP Securities: While revenue growth decelerated to 50% from 58% in Q1, the company is the clear leader in electronic signature and the broader system of agreement having crossed over 1M customers with a $2B run rate this quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that he sees lots of room for growth as DocuSign targets a $50B total addressable market.
o Needham: The analyst commented, "Docusign reported another strong quarter in 2QF22 with typical DOCU upside to revenue and profitability. Sales metrics and growth decelerated Q/Q, as we expected against a massive pandemic quarter, but at a much slower rate than we believe much of the Street was anticipating. 65k net new customers was lower than the 70k - 90 range of CY20 but was still more than 2x greater than any pre-pandemic quarter, highlighting a strong end-market driving 47% billings growth against a strong comp. Commentary on incremental Agreement Cloud demand was positive, suggesting an additional growth tailwind combined with solid international can further aid 2HF22. Although DOCU shares could be lower near-term due to weak 2H OpMg guidance, we think this guidance is conservative, as the recent OM was greater than the pre-pandemic level even with tough comps."
o RBC Capital: The quarter highlighted the sustainability of the company's tailwinds post-pandemic as most of its underlying metrics such as billings and net revenue retention were solid, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that the traction with CLM and Notary was also "impressive".

分析師對於CRWD的評價:
• 12位buy; 給的價格分別是: $300, $310 (x2), $313, $315 (x2) , $305, $320, $325, $330 (x2), $340
• 1位給hold: $280 (from $220 by J.P. Morgan(same))
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst believes the company has significant room for growth with core modules, opportunities with Humio and in cloud workload security, among others, should help drive a continuation of strong growth over a long time horizon.
o BTIG: The company's "strong" Q2 results "cleared every hurdle", even though the buy-side benchmarks may have been slightly higher, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Powell adds that Crowdstrike is clearly gaining share in its core endpoint security target market at a rapid pace and gaining traction with new products across multiple categories.
o Canaccord: The analyst said the stock is down from its recent highs, and he thinks the re-rating creates a more favorable entry point for longer-oriented investors for a foundational security name. He views Crowdstrike as a long-term secular winner in security due to its native cloud platform advantage versus closely held peers in endpoint security combined with platform expansion into tangential segments to capture greater share of security budgets.
o Goldman Sachs: CrowdStrike last night delivered "another beat and raise quarter as the company benefited from another quarter of elevated demand," Essex said. But it traded lower following net new annual recurring revenue growth guidance that was slightly less than investors had hoped for. Essex, nonetheless, said the quarter demonstrated CrowdStrike's "ability to continue to go down market efficiently."
o JMP Securities: The analyst notes the company's Q2 annualized recurring revenue of $1.34B topping his estimate of $1.30B, with "sustained" 70% ARR and revenue growth along with margin upside seen as key highlights for the quarter. Suppiger adds that the metrics reflect Crowdstrike's "strong execution and robust demand environment".
o Mizuho: "very good" fiscal Q2 results. The annual recurring revenue growth of 70% year-over-year "was strong and still nicely surpassed" the Street's 65%-66% estimate, Moskowitz tells investors in a research note. He believes "strong execution can propel" Crowdstrike's stock higher.
o Piper Sandler: The company's metrics "outperformed across the board" in Q2 with 70% annual recurring revenue and revenue growth and record net new customer adds in the quarter, Owens tells investors in a research note.
o RBC Capital: Hedberg adds that CrowdStrike's record pipeline entering Q3 should continue to fuel the company's "land-and-expand" momentum.
o Stifel: Q2 results that he said "exceeded consensus estimates across all major financial metrics." He continues to believe that Crowdstrike's growth opportunity "remains in the early days" despite the company's scale given continued share capture within its core endpoint security market and incremental module adoption on the Falcon Platform, Reback tells investors.
o UBS: the company reported "pretty good" Q2 results against high expectations.

🌻趨勢: 跨境電商 Cross-border commerce
Morgan Stanley:
From our perspective, we think many are underestimating what the cross-border eCommerce demand could ultimately be, once key friction points like FX rates, tax and duties, shipping, language, etc are smoothed—all issues that Global-E directly addresses.

Cross-border ecommerce brings new, high-yield volume: We think elevated levels of cross-border ecommerce (ex-travel) is a structural shift thathas yet to be fully contemplated in MA (and V)'s long-term forecasts. MA's cross-border CNP ex-travel volume was 69% above 2019's level in 2Q and 63% higher in 1Q. Strength reflects both broader ecommerce adoption plus globalization of commerce, as marketplaces and services that reduce cross-border friction (such as those from GLBE) make international online ordering more readily adopted. Early data at V suggests greater cross-border ecommerce spend is persisting even in areas with pre-pandemic levels of international travel. Cross-border transactions also come at a higher yield, making us more optimistic that the trend can bring incremental long-term growth to the networks.

產業的潮流是有連貫性的. 疫情讓電商更發達後, 接下來應該就是加速電商跨境了. 跨境的話, 有很多問題需要解決(稅率, 語言, etc.) 這就需要有公司來做整合的動作. 這種跨境, 也可以想像是omnichannel的一種呈現.

Harley Finkelstein (President of Shopify): "I mean I think commerce in 2021 is cross-border."

🌻SPAC熱潮退卻，初創市值蒸發750億美元
"SPAC熱潮已經退卻。分析顯示，在2月中旬以前完成合併的137家SPAC的總市值已經蒸發25%，市值回落幅度上個月一度超過1,000億美元。"

"像貝萊德(BlackRock Inc., BLK)和富達投資(Fidelity Investments Inc.)這類企業管理的基金，以及許多對沖基金、養老金管理公司和其他一些投資者，都在SPAC的回落中遭受了衝擊，他們在去年年底開始的熱潮中競相投資SPAC。其中許多基金由於在價格還很低的時候就早早入場，所以現在仍坐擁可觀收益。事實上，SPAC市值仍有約2,500億美元，高於一年前的約1,000億美元，反映出這期間股價上漲和新公司上市的影響。

但即便如此，今年年初令人炫目的回報還是讓許多後來者做了接盤俠，扎堆投資所謂穩賺不賠的領域，其永恆的風險可見一斑。在過去的幾個月裡，一些投資者眼睜睜看著帳面財富縮水。"

"股價下跌會在SPAC領域形成惡性循環，因為投資者有權在併購交易前從空白支票公司撤資。一旦SPAC跌破發行價，投資者就更有可能這樣做，而許多SPAC的股價現在正處於這樣的水平。目前，在尚未宣布併購交易的空白支票公司中，超過95%的公司股價低於發行價。

投資者的大規模撤資會讓已經上市的空白支票公司手上的現金大幅減少，讓其更難實現業務目標，並可能加劇股價跌勢。"

https://on.wsj.com/3n6JznC

🌻BNPL (buy now pay later)
But most BNPL providers including Affirm, Klarna and Afterpay have been losing money despite breakneck revenue growth as they invest heavily in marketing to win share. Sweden-based Klarna’s credit losses more than doubled in the second quarter. Affirm has projected adjusted operating losses of $50m-$55m for the fiscal year that ended June 30.

The path to profitability for many of these companies was to achieve massive scale, analysts said.

https://www.ft.com/content/ca201a37-a16d-4223-b123-04d38350a972

Pictures: 一葉知秋; from EarningsWhispers

個人部位裡十大持股 (佔配置約 85% 資金) YTD 表現，大致上可以看得出來關聯性算高，也就是說並不屬於"穩健"配置，風險程度偏高，稍微簡評。

TSLA 是我部位去年最強，但也是今年表現最弱，仍然讓他擔任主力部位，成長性毋庸置疑、自動駕駛雖然很多人吐槽是 L2，但幾乎是開過各品牌自駕功能者共識的冠軍、馬誼郎的預期出貨量也都有達到，買了一台特斯拉幫自己的投資貢獻營收。至於 Robotaxi 和 Teslabot，我覺得對公司估值尚無幫助，但如果再來一次年初的成長股之亂，說不定又要飛天了，有夢最美；

NFLX 四月財報前大力加碼結果硬吃 -10%，錄了一集「網飛往地上飛」安慰自己，終於在今天創新高，最強大的 churn rate 代表最強大的 LTV，也代表著制價權，我覺得串流之王當之無愧，後人要追還要時間。迪士尼雖然有 Disney+，先不論績效，產品組合有其他東西純度就輸了；

NVDA 就一直飛，中間盤整時也沒什麼動搖，不管是 metaverse, AI, server, 自駕、電玩，什麼酷題材都有他，若用「可預期的未來」來做選股的話，絕對是首選；

NET 最早和 GG 對拚的標的，其實在去年的時候市場和輿論都是比較喜歡 FSLY，兩者業務有類似之處但不重疊，後來 FSLY 和 AKAM 股價表現較差一起砍掉，事後財報驗證沒有冤枉這兩隻；

FB 不用多說就是 #相信蜥蜴，我整天都這樣洗腦大家，雖然臉書最常獲得罵名，但想想為什麼大家還是一直用臉書答案就很明顯了吧，其對於 VR/AR 的布局值得期待；

MSFT 把它當成墊底石最適合，停損停利就拿它來停泊資金，發現酷東西就從這裡殺肉，他是你最佳的朋友，也是配置裡最穩的選擇之一；

CRWD 是目前防毒公司成長性最好的代表之一，zero trust 先鋒，每次只要有駭客出來亂，就又免費廣告，在區塊鏈打入華爾街之後，整天被駭的特性，一定只會獲得更多關注；

SQ 這隻也是信仰股，單純覺得他的估值一定要超過 PYPL 才是，同時是疫情受害也是受惠股， Cash app 功能強大，數位存款、轉帳、發薪、消費、投資股市/加密貨幣都做得到，關在家裡就用這個。而解封出外之後，廣大的 SME 都是 Square 支付的好夥伴。

UI 是聽到教練介紹之後，自己安裝了他家的 wifi，然後得知老闆和麻吉兄弟是朋友，股價表現又穩健上爬，就直接買進了，沒算估值、也沒管評價，反正東西好用就買來投資。

AMZN 雖然大多數人對他的印象是電商，但實際上是雲端界的王，AWS 是這家公司估值可以屌壓另個販售霸主 WMT 的主因，家大業大什麼都做，雲端的路還很長，在持股裡面算和 MSFT 同個地位，也就是假設短期內發生股災，會比較無顧忌敢撿，也安心的好東西。

今年停損的大部位：
TDOC 是遠距醫療公司，吃下 LVGO 之後本來是很看好，但在上次財報發現成長減緩後就賣了，也吃了二十幾 % 的虧損。

連續兩年好年，過得這麼幸福真的沒問題嗎？祝大家順利囉

#盲貓創業 #無風險收益
#創業
無風險收益率
無風險收益率(Risk-free Rate)，也稱無風險報酬率（risk-free return rate）

目錄
1 什麼是無風險收益率
2 無風險收益率的公式
3 無風險收益率的確定
4 相關條目
[編輯]
什麼是無風險收益率
　　無風險收益率是指把資金投資於一個沒有任何風險的投資對象所能得到的收益率。一般會把這一收益率作為基本收益，再考慮可能出現的各種風險。

[編輯]
無風險收益率的公式
　　無風險收益率是資金時間價值與通貨膨脹補償率之和，是除了通貨膨脹風險之外，沒有風險情況下的投資收益率。

　　無風險收益率=資金時間價值（純利率）+通貨膨脹補償率

[編輯]
無風險收益率的確定
　　無風險收益率的確定在基金業績評價中具有非常重要的作用，各種傳統的業績評價方法都使用了無風險收益率指標。在我國股市目前的條件下，關於無風險收益率的選擇實際上並沒有什麼統一的標準。在國際上，一般採用短期國債收益率來作為市場無風險收益率。


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