🌻另一個Zoom會議(第二次貼......有補上一些內容)
繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).
主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算基礎的估值會議)
主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment　(此為小揚的粉絲頁)
參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.
時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間９點.
預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問
進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)

🌻Morgan Stanley Mid-year Investor Outlook: A tricky transition

https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/midyear-2021-global-markets-outlook

🌻在您投資生涯中, 有沒有一些觀念讓您受用很多?
下面這位投資名人的好觀念影響我很深. 他的意思是, 一般投資人, 只要能説出三個買一家公司的理由, 就很夠了. 這也迫使我, 每次在買股票時, 問自己對這家公司的了解有多少. 也會去衡量公司的優點與缺點在哪裡.

"It is vital (重要的) that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks."

全文在此:
Jim Cramer: In Times Like This, Go for the Easy Money
Look at the stocks you own. Can you tell me why you've got them? If you can't answer the following three questions, then have a look at several I like right now.

We've endured the meme stock craziness, with all of its love for heavily shorted stocks. We have watched the collapse of bitcoin to levels viewed as shocking, even if they are still more than double where they were not that long ago. We've dealt with Fed officials making it clear that they are no longer on the side of the bulls or the bears. They are on the side of job growth, but are wary of inflation. We've seen the end of the rush to get vaccines, which means that millions of people are going to get the new COVID variant, because there is no natural immunity to it. We've watched as the hopes for an infrastructure bill have collapsed. We've endured shortages of everything from chips to plastic to imported goods and labor.

And we're still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Yep, we are in one of those halcyon moments, where the masks are off -- even if they shouldn't be -- and Americans are back doing what they do best: consume, spend, go out to eat and then consume and spend some more.

There are times in the stock market where the collective mindset is revealed. This is one of those times: Things are cool, it's not a big moment, there's no real news for a bit, it's the historically strong period and we can reach some conclusions about where we are.

When things are like this, it is important to remember that buyers like to revert to tried-and-true companies that thrive no matter what. These are companies that have an edge and are better at what they do than other companies.

You know that I am a great believer in index funds, that the average person doesn't have the time or the inclination to research individual stocks. It's a difficult barrier. I think you need to make time to read the quarterly report and listen to the conference call, to Google articles and, if possible, get some research about the companies you own. It is vital that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks. I am reminded by this, because, once again, without a mask, I can be recognized and if I am not holding "Nvidia the Second," I can carry on a conversation.

I have had many in the last two weeks and when I have asked this litany of questions, I find myself at a loss as to why almost no one knew what they owned. But they thirsted for individual stocks, because they, like me, think things are better post pandemic. No, that's not a facetious comment. Many, many stocks did better with a stay-at-home economy. A huge number.

So what do I do? I revert to what others do when you are stumped about how to stay in touch with stocks, but want to do less homework. That means buying stocks that are accessible, not stocks like Unity (U) or Snowflake (SNOW) or Twilio (TWLO) or Okta (OKTA) .

I revert to normal businesses people know and I suggest they Google some articles, peruse the conference call, but, above all, like the company's products so you can buy more if it goes down.

Here's some that I have been telling people I like:

First is Ford (F) . I think the Ford lineup is amazing. The electric F-150 series will be incredible. I am eager to get a Maverick for my family, because it is a smaller pickup that will get the job done for the myriad little things I need to do with this farm I bought from that crazy bitcoin foray. I like the competitive edge of the CEO, who says he is going to bury Elon Musk when the Lightning comes out. I even think the Bronco is cool as all get out. Most important, though? I think the chip shortage is ending. My semiconductor friends are telling me the foundries are producing more feature-rich chips and that means Ford can pump out the trucks small business people love and need. Plus, the used car prices at last have plateaued, according to their most important pricing index. Halcyon times.

Second, Costco (COST) : The samples are coming back. Tell me you don't love the samples. You need things in bulk. You want low prices. You want to get all of the things that people don't think of with Costco, like insurance, hearing-aids -- hey, they are a fortune -- jewelry, things around the house. You go and you will buy far more than you first came for. My kind of store.

The kids love this American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) , which we just bought for my charitable trust, which you can follow along by joining the Action Alerts PLUS club. Jay Schottenstein, the CEO, came on "Mad Money" recently and it's clear that his Aerie model has real staying power: 26 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. No flash in the pan, that one. Number one brand in jeans for the 15 to 25 year old group. The best in the mall. How did I know this? I see the credit card bills.

I got up this morning to do my physical therapy. I have been doing it ever since I hurt my back in February. I have this really cool pair of sneakers that fit me perfectly and I love them, but I am fortunate enough to have a vacation house and I am always taking those shoes with me.

So I went on Amazon (AMZN) this morning and lo and behold I saw them for half price. I bought two pairs. Then I went over everything I have bought in the last year and got a bunch of those things. Then I bought a pair of binoculars, because mine were stolen. I paid half price.

Yep, Amazon's universal. I was talking to Alexa, while I was ordering, getting some new music on, asking questions. I saw that despite all of the Sturm und Drang of Amazon being late with things, all the delivery dates were within range. I didn't click on any ads, and I didn't need the speed of Web Services, but the whole thing reminded me about how special the darned company is. I don't care if it's ahead or behind plan for the moment. I would just buy some more when it goes down.

Finally, Apple (AAPL) . I think people who don't own Apple should look what they are holding at this very moment. Yes, right now. Or look at what's in your lap or on the table besides your fork. And then think about the bill you paid last night without knowing it. Think about what you bought in the App store yesterday. Think about what would happen if it would break or get stolen or, left in the Uber (UBER) , or heaven forbid, be dropped into the pool or in the, yes, toilet.

There, that's what you buy in halcyon times. Stocks of companies you know that if they go lower, because things get less halcyon, you are fine with it and buy more. If things go up, believe me, you will participate.

So accept the moment. Don't try for the hard money. Go for the easy kind. That's the best kind.

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer--15692051

Picture: 牡丹(peony)花開. 恨不得院子裡有一塊地是牡丹園.

#木的小事町 #木的談曖昧
曖昧讓人受盡委屈~找不到相愛的證據(音樂下🎵

進入親密關係前的曖昧，是快樂又心動的時刻；但若處在這樣的關係過長，也不禁懷疑，對方究竟有沒有要跟自己繼續發展呢？又或是只是喜歡享受這種曖昧不清、又不必給承諾的關係之中？

你心中也有「難道~~~我就是傳說中的備胎嗎！！」的疑惑嗎🤔

歡迎右滑看圖文，或是繼續往下看文章唷
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🌟如何定義備胎關係
備胎(Back-Burner)的意思是「有意圖的維繫一段潛在的、未來有可能會發展為親密、性關係的關係模式」。

簡單來說，就是認為可以繼續跟對方有更多的可能性，但是不急於現在立刻昇華為伴侶關係，讓彼此的關係有更多、或其他的發展空間，因而保持這種曖昧、模糊的氛圍。

也許你很享受這種曖昧的氛圍，而也不太確定被當成備胎，有什麼不好，下面幾點是心理學家整理出關於備胎，你需要知道的部分。
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📍你可能不是唯一一個
備胎與親密關係之間的差別，在於「承諾」。

僅維持這種曖昧又模糊的關係，不需要給予彼此承諾、獨佔性、專一性，也因此對於尚不想要被關係綁住的人，認為這沒什麼大不了。

但若對於已經希望繼續發展親密關係的人來說，便會顯得有些不公平與吃虧，在繼續維持這段關係之前，也許也可以思考看看自己目前想要的關係模式為何。
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若對方正處於一段親密關係....
📍對方的伴侶很有可能不知道你的存在
研究顯示，有32%的人表示他們的伴侶對於他們的備胎完全不知情；有41%的人表示他們的伴侶可能知道一些端倪，但可能不知道全部。

備胎關係與一般友情的差異，是備胎關係較不會被「明說」，在伴侶之間也可能是「不能說的秘密」；而相較於友情的光明正大，判斷友情與曖昧的備胎最簡單的方法，也可以從對方是否能夠正大光明的說出你的存在為標準之一。

📍對方並非想要放棄目前這段親密關係
若你維持曖昧的對象，你會想要繼續跟他發展下去，也觀察到對方和他的伴侶似乎已經沒有什麼火花與互動，因此你假設，他與伴侶之間也許已經沒有什麼承諾可言了，也對你們這段關係抱有進展的希望。

但研究也顯示，有發展備胎關係的人，並不一定表示他們想要放棄現在的親密關係，意思是，對方並沒有想要與伴侶結束親密關係，但他同時也希望能夠繼續保有備胎這種曖昧不明的關係狀態(aka 什麼都想要的意思XD)。
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🌟該如何確認這只是友情亦或是被當成備胎
每個人對於人際界線的定義不同，跟異性(對自己有性吸引力的一方)相處的過程中，有些無意的動作，也可能被過度解釋：
👉🏻也許你只是想跟對方做為朋友，但對方對你的意思可能不僅僅如此
👉🏻而若對對方有意思，但也擔心自己是否只是對方眾多備胎之一

📣木的建議，人心難測，直接攤牌溝通吧！

我們永遠也無法真正了解他人的心思為何，也永遠不會知道自己究竟是否被當成備胎(只有當事者才清楚)。

若在關係中，你很喜歡對方，很享受這樣曖昧的氛圍，同時也想要繼續跟對方發展為親密關係，也許也可以在單獨兩人時，詢問對方對於親密關係的想法，了解對方目前想要的關係狀態是否跟自己一致，也能評估自己是否要繼續這段關係唷！
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最後，木的想說，關係有很多種形式，重要的是，彼此之間是否能對於關係抱有一致的價值觀(例如：同意彼此有開放交友的空間、不那麼認真談感情等)，避免雙方受傷。

當然，談到親密關係，難免的會因兩人之間的熱度不同而感到受傷與失望，這時候也記得找身旁信任的好友說一說，釐清自己的想法、也好好照顧受傷的情緒，你永遠值得更好！
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參考文獻：
🔅Dibble, J. L., Drouin, M., Aune, K. S., & Boller, R. R. (2015). Simmering on the back burner: Communication with and disclosure of relationship alternatives. Communication Quarterly, 63(3), 329-344.
🔅5 Facts About Back-Burner Relationships. Psychology today. Retrieved from: https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/love-online/201606/5-facts-about-back-burner-relationships

#備胎 #備胎關係 #BackBurner #relationship #關係 #曖昧 #親密關係 #人際界線 #關係經營 #溝通 #承諾 #開放交友 #開放式關係 #諮商心理 #諮商心理師 #郭玟秀諮商心理師 #黃旻諮商心理師

［拜年話題］ 踢爆嚟多次沙士買樓（或買股）嘅虛妄（已FC）

（圖可以入meidum 睇）

1. 即入正題，一句收你皮，或者你收我皮（即係唔同意唔使再睇）。都係一句。2003年，香港股樓根本冇因為沙士大跌過，講完。前者肯定係，後者其實都係係地。
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2. 拜年妙品，初三更佳，你拜年講呢啲保證摟屌，惹火過講政治。但應該可以令你成為表妹（或表姐，甚至表嫂）眼中「呢位小朋友有啲意思」嘅人。我？我梗係唔係，我拜年碌電話唔講嘢的。講嘢就開拖架啦。

3. 其實內容同之前Primeness Post （已出咗新一期，搵唔返舊文，搵到再貼）出過嘅差不多，不過嗰篇主要講樓，呢篇講埋股票同，哈，你地最鍾意（但其實冇用）嘅，實體經濟。
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4. 反修例風波，做咗N日頭條，破咗（應係？）陳冠希紀錄後，卒之在新年間（又係新年！仲咁啱都係鼠年！）畀另一單新聞搶咗。當然就係肺炎。香港人當然好著緊，除咗係因為反中外，亦因為真係香港人集體回憶。唔鍾意呢個詞，但都要用，的確係，我都唔例外。

5. 打後十幾年，總會有人講，最好嚟多次沙士，咁佢就可以買樓。近半年少咗啲人講（因為而家講錢太庸俗），但早幾年真係好多。

6. 講嘅，有啲固然係半講笑，但亦都有唔少人真心想嚟多次沙士。拿，而家恨到啦，個個好似四仔咩禁欲幾多日待爆啦可？。但我相信，講嗰啲唔係黑心想有人死，而係想樓價大幅回落有機會上到車。事後睇（當然易），2003年真係上車良機，打後十幾年，香港樓年年都升，得一年跌 — 就係金融海嘯嗰年。2008年跌咗15%，冇啦

7. 又係事後睇返，咁2008年真係世紀第二次（有第二次仲係世紀？）買樓良機。打後十年更加係升到絶塵。甚至舊年（2019）香港經濟又衰退大陸經濟又放慢又貿易戰又社會事件，都冇得跌。

8. 本人唔做道德撚，亦唔做醫學撚（其實有學者話沙士根本誇大，只係普通嘢）。想嚟多次沙士係咪不道德，定係高樓價更不道德，不在討論之列。我只講客觀（盡量）分析。想講嘅係：有冇諗過「沙士令到樓價跌」，本身就唔係事實？所以「嚟多次沙士樓價就會跌就會買到樓」（留意，跌咗都未必代表你買到，跌八成都未必代表你上到會），根本就係建基於一個虛假嘅前設。當然啦，前設假結論都可以啱，另計。

9. 沙士樓市有幾慘，唔使我多講，就算未出世嘅都知，媒體同我等廢老樂於成日回帶。淘大嘛，經典。但你睇真啲，當年跌得（算）快，彈得仲快！你睇呢個樓價（中原領先指數，下同），根本全年仲有得升！問你死未。

10. 睇下按月，3月叫做爆發沙士，大家開始當係大件事，35.7 跌到33.6，6%，好急架啦。如果你睇差餉物業估價署，冇咁多添。

11. 然後？去到6月世衞除名，樓市7月尾經見底。即係由3月跌到又係5%左右。調整係幾急，但反彈更加急。兩個月後樓價已經反彈到沙士之前，年尾已經升穿埋年頭嘅位。死未？你覺得你可以短短幾個月間下定決心又班到水又上到會買到樓？事後講就易。我知，你總有個朋友有咁做，我都有朋友咁做。但我自己冇，你都冇。你覺得下次你可以？

12. 仲有，更重要嘅係，「沙士推跌樓價」呢個講法，我本人係相當懷疑。唔會話冇影響，10%喎，但，真係完全因為沙士？時間上係吻合，亦都冇得好似科學實驗咁做control（所以金融咁難估，因為涉及人）。但我質疑嘅理據係乜？好簡單，根本97年後，香港樓就冇好過，跌足5年。98年跌36%，加上嗰時息高，啲人做槓杆又狼，呢啲就真係輸到跳樓。00年一樣跌18%，沙士之前一年嘅02又跌12%。可能係97前炒得太癲，可能係八萬五，可能係亞洲金融風暴後遺症。不重要，總之，肯定沙士之前N年樓市已跌緊，仲跌得好甘

13. 2003年根本未有沙士亦都跌緊，所以之後幾個月，真係完全因為沙士跌？定只係最後一根稻草踩多腳？諷刺係，沙士之後就即時反彈。

14. 我計你沙士，高位跌低位，樓價都不過係10%—10%唔算少，但，係咪世紀良機？咪講過咯，98,00,02都唔止呢個數。08年亦都多過呢個數。甚至19年有啲單位都唔止呢個數—你有冇見有人講？根本08同19就已經勁過沙士重臨，但講「嚟多次沙士買樓」嘅，當時飛咗入去未？定都係睇定啲？今次唔同？跌多啲先？所以係冇用的，嚟多次你都唔會買，或者買唔到。因為沙士根本跌得冇你想像中咁多。正如話等騰訊跌到300先買嘅，真係300蚊你估佢又會買咩，又話等200蚊啦。唔係笑人，而係呢啲心態係人嘅平性，你要面對佢。避雷針嘅比喻：有咗避雷針後行雷閃電冇少咗，但我地冇以前咁驚。

15 順手講埋，你最鍾意（但冇用）嘅，實體經濟：比個震驚嘅真相你：

16. 沙士嗰年，香港經濟根本冇衰退！

17. 冇呃你，自己睇。係違反你常識，但幾時話你啲常識可靠？自己睇圖丫，或者上返任何地方睇數字，2003年香港GDP係正增長，之後嗰年都係，其實打後咁多年就只有2008年跌，呀仲有，2019年都應該跌。

18. 咁你話，你玩數字遊戲啫，全年梗係冇事，但有單季倒退嘛。係喎，Quarterly 你都識喎，有讀書呀呀。就睇埋Quarterly

19. 拿，見到啦，2003單季係倒退過，一季咁大把，仲要一個巴仙唔夠。唔好話同98，08嗰啲慘況比，根本01，02 就仲大鑊（亦所以樓市一早跌）。沙士後更加係話咁快反彈。

20. 唔講咁遠，講近啲。舊年第四季香港經濟一樣大倒退，一早慘過沙士啦，使乜沙士重臨？

21. 但，舊年第四季，港股跌幾多？你可以去睇下，唔阻你做功課。

22. 所以話你知，股票同樓，金融市場，根本唔係好多人想像咁運作。我方死你唔夠傷心，睇埋03年嘅股市丫？

23. 自己計下，升咗幾多。當年恒指同國企指數，全年係升到七彩嘅。唔係咩勁升一千點（有時真係頂而家啲記者或作者唔順，五百點就股災，兩千點就血洗，你都未撚見過血呀），而係講緊全年升35%！而家水平計，即係升10000點！你話發癲？你見識少啫

24. 我都未同你計，35%講緊全年咋喎。低位一定唔止。你低位買嘅，升50%添呀

25. 當然你話，喂，你事後畫龍門梗係屈機啦，你不如話十蚊買騰訊丫。啱。睇埋downside，又係一個挑戰你常識嘅事實

沙士嗰年，恒指根本冇乜點跌過！！！

26. 有圖為證，自己睇。所謂沙士期間港股大跌，講緊7%唔夠。而家水平，講緊1800點多啲，以為好多？咁話你知，呢個星期四日半（年三十半日市）已經跌咗1100點，未去到沙士，都大半。

27. 係喎，都未同你講，失業率。是的，沙士嗰時升到8%樓上。但一樣，你可以睇下之前幾年發生咩事，02年正係唐英年發表著名嘅「有生之年」講話，當時失業率已經升。反而係沙士時見底

28. 結論：沙士之前幾年，樓市已經狂瀉。沙士就算伸多腳，跌幅亦唔係特別大，而且調得急又彈得快，要捉到都極難。至少沙士呢啲樓價跌幅，沙士前已經成日有，沙士後亦都有過唔止一次。捉唔捉到，敢唔敢捉，有冇能力捉，應唔應該捉，四回事。

29. 仲有，涼薄（其實一有人用呢個字我就當佢理屈詞窮）啲講，大佬呀，我中華十三萬萬同胞呀，沙士？幾百人？幾千人？幾萬人？撈迫刁啦。你估真係對實體經濟好大影響？

30. 我就當對實體經濟好大影響，邊位話你知股市係跟實體經濟行？仲堅持係嘅。咪睇下17年，18年，19年嘅香港股市（環球都好）。仲堅持係嘅，咁你應該認為過去十年買A股表現一定好過美股。實體經濟喎。
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31. 麻煩嘢放最尾，費事阻讀者雅興，但唔講又會有啲盲毛唔明。講明先，唔好又話我盲目唱好呀，粉飾太平呀乜。之後走勢？唔知。疫情？應該再擴大。但係咪股樓會再跌？我估未必，但應該唔會，但錯咗唔好鬧，反正冇人拎支槍迫你買或賣。

32. 況且，歷史唔會簡單咁重覆。唔同意分析嘅大可以講：喂，上次點點點，後來有點點點（自由行，些爬，阿爺，任你填），而今次又有乜乜乜（貿易戰，社運，中國債務危機，亦都任你填）喎。事實係咁，所以無任何兩件事有可比性，先賢話齋，你不能跨過同一條河兩次。

33. 但，個盲點係，其實講以上呢堆嘢嘅人，講自己立場時，話會大跌，咪又係用返當年嘅歷史。所以就同你講歷史，因為歷史相對（相對咋下）地客觀，發生咗嘅事，冇咁多嘢可以拗。跌幾多就係幾多。當然要拗「點解」就會主觀啲。正如聽日報紙報恒指升幾多點係客觀，但因為乜乜就唔係完全客觀，個市唔會話你知點解升點解跌。

34. 但最後都補多句，其實唱好根本唔係盲目，Optimism is a Default Setting．唱淡嗰啲先係盲目，亦都多數死清光。兩樣嘢，首先，我係悲觀嘅樂觀者，我相信人類都係咁嘅，悲觀嘅基因慢就死晒，唔樂觀嘅燒炭啦，對不？第二，正經啲。買股票又好，買樓又好，講緊係十年八年甚至幾十年嘅事（呀，你以為我教你炒即日鮮？）。一兩年會點難估，但幾十年易答啲，股票同樓嘅嘢，長期都應該係升嘅。

35. 理由？環球央行一路行寬鬆，群眾小小痛都受唔到。你可以問下自己，十年後，廿年後，三十年後，錢（任你點定義貨幣供應），會係多咗，定少咗？咁答到呢個問題，大約都估到，資產格價會點行啦可？咁當然必你嗰層樓實升，未必港股實識。但must be bull market somewhere．一早叫你分散投資亞洲美洲歐洲債券股票樓都買啲啦。

36. Cutie little fucking little thing called inflation，你唔係信政府啲3%通脹下話？你問下計嗰條友食過魚柳包未？買過太古城未？去過東莞未？（聽朋友講有魚聊包買，我都唔知，我以為東莞米粉出名）