因為有不少朋友建議我，將日前臉書上“武漢肺炎發生率與致死率的國際比較”一文翻譯成英文，所以，就以英文版再次和大家分享，也謝謝大家的批評指教。

International Comparison of Incidence and Mortality Rates of COVID-19

In the statistics of the COVID-19 collected and published by the World Health Organization (WHO), only the numbers of confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 of affected countries are available, without taking the population of each country into consideration. It will result in a biased assessment of the COVID-19 risk for each country.
Better data for international comparison is incidence rates, which refer to the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases (numerator) divided by the number of the population (denominator) of a given country. As shown in Table 1. the incidence rate per 100,000 population was highest in Italy, Korean, Iran, and China (>5.0 per 100,000) and much lower in Japan, US and Taiwan (<0.5 per 100,000).



The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in each country is not only related to its population but also dependent on the coverage rate of the COVID-19 virus test. The confirmed case number and incidence rate are relatively low for those countries where only the severe cases were tested for COVID-19 virus; and they are much higher for countries where severe, moderate and mild cases were tested for the virus.

Once a country changes its policy of virus testing, for example of testing only those who are seriously ill, the number of the confirmed cases and incidence rate will drop sharply in a short period of time, but its case fatality rate will rise accordingly.

The case fatality rate is the proportion (percentage) of confirmed COVID-19 cases who died from the disease. Its numerator is the number of confirmed cases who died from the disease, and its denominator is the total number of confirmed cases. It is for sure that the case fatality rate will be higher if the analysis is limited to severe cases, and it will drop dramatically if the analysis also includes moderate and mild cases.

As shown in Table 2, the case fatality rates are the same for severe (5%), moderate (0.5%) and mild (0.1%) COVID-19 confirmed cases in countries A, B, and C are the same, but
the overall case fatality rates per 1,000 confirmed cases are significantly different among the country A, where only test the severe cases (41 per 1,000), country B where both severe and moderate cases are tested (14 per 1,000), and country C where test all severe, moderate and mild cases (8 per 1,000).



Among the countries with more than 1,000 confirmed cases in Table 1, the overall case-fatality rates in Italy, China and Iran were all exceeded 3.5%. Obviously, the severe cases account for a relatively large proportion of confirmed cases. The overall case-fatality rate for South Korea and Germany was only 0.8% and 0.1%, respectively, where the moderate and mild cases account for a relatively large proportion.

When we see a rapid decline in the number of confirmed cases with a soared case fatality rate, we must first pay attention to the change in the country's virus testing strategy. The Director-General of WHO recently stated that all countries should be cautious for the case fatality rate of COVID-19 is rising! The conclusion that the Director-General was biasedly made without taking the change in the virus testing strategy into consideration. He made the matter worse by causing unnecessary panic!

In addition to the virus-detection strategy, some other factors such as age, chronic disease status, and quality of medical care also affect the case fatality rate. For examples, the fatality rate will be low if the patients in the hospital for isolation treatment are mostly young people, without chronic disease, and receiving good cares. If most patients are old, with chronic disease, and receiving inadequate cares due to limited hospital resources and manpower, the case fatality rate will become high.

因為有不少朋友建議我，將日前臉書上“武漢肺炎發生率與致死率的國際比較”一文翻譯成英文，所以，就以英文版再次和大家分享，也謝謝大家的批評指教。

International Comparison of Incidence and Mortality Rates of COVID-19

In the statistics of the COVID-19 collected and published by the World Health Organization (WHO), only the numbers of confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 of affected countries are available, without taking the population of each country into consideration. It will result in a biased assessment of the COVID-19 risk for each country.
Better data for international comparison is incidence rates, which refer to the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases (numerator) divided by the number of the population (denominator) of a given country. As shown in Table 1. the incidence rate per 100,000 population was highest in Italy, Korean, Iran, and China (>5.0 per 100,000) and much lower in Japan, US and Taiwan (<0.5 per 100,000).



The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in each country is not only related to its population but also dependent on the coverage rate of the COVID-19 virus test. The confirmed case number and incidence rate are relatively low for those countries where only the severe cases were tested for COVID-19 virus; and they are much higher for countries where severe, moderate and mild cases were tested for the virus.

Once a country changes its policy of virus testing, for example of testing only those who are seriously ill, the number of the confirmed cases and incidence rate will drop sharply in a short period of time, but its case fatality rate will rise accordingly.

The case fatality rate is the proportion (percentage) of confirmed COVID-19 cases who died from the disease. Its numerator is the number of confirmed cases who died from the disease, and its denominator is the total number of confirmed cases. It is for sure that the case fatality rate will be higher if the analysis is limited to severe cases, and it will drop dramatically if the analysis also includes moderate and mild cases.

As shown in Table 2, the case fatality rates are the same for severe (5%), moderate (0.5%) and mild (0.1%) COVID-19 confirmed cases in countries A, B, and C are the same, but
the overall case fatality rates per 1,000 confirmed cases are significantly different among the country A, where only test the severe cases (41 per 1,000), country B where both severe and moderate cases are tested (14 per 1,000), and country C where test all severe, moderate and mild cases (8 per 1,000).



Among the countries with more than 1,000 confirmed cases in Table 1, the overall case-fatality rates in Italy, China and Iran were all exceeded 3.5%. Obviously, the severe cases account for a relatively large proportion of confirmed cases. The overall case-fatality rate for South Korea and Germany was only 0.8% and 0.1%, respectively, where the moderate and mild cases account for a relatively large proportion.

When we see a rapid decline in the number of confirmed cases with a soared case fatality rate, we must first pay attention to the change in the country's virus testing strategy. The Director-General of WHO recently stated that all countries should be cautious for the case fatality rate of COVID-19 is rising! The conclusion that the Director-General was biasedly made without taking the change in the virus testing strategy into consideration. He made the matter worse by causing unnecessary panic!

In addition to the virus-detection strategy, some other factors such as age, chronic disease status, and quality of medical care also affect the case fatality rate. For examples, the fatality rate will be low if the patients in the hospital for isolation treatment are mostly young people, without chronic disease, and receiving good cares. If most patients are old, with chronic disease, and receiving inadequate cares due to limited hospital resources and manpower, the case fatality rate will become high.

怒！錯誤解讀 WHO 的數據，引起民眾恐慌，實在不可取！
　
不少人今天轉傳中時的新聞，內文表示：台大醫院兒童感染科主任黃立民指出，全球確診案例中，無肺炎症狀感染者比例高達 8 成以上，「健康的人不用戴口罩」已不適用現在的疫情發展。
　
但我找到世界衛生組織（WHO）的報告原文，明明就不是這樣寫！實際上真正無症狀感染的比例尚不清楚，但目前證據顯示相對較少，並且不是傳播的主要驅動力！
　　
雖然無法確定是受訪的醫生說錯，還是中時新聞濃縮或者改寫錯醫生的意思，但總之就是不實資訊！
　
以下是報告的原文，以及 Google 翻譯的中文內容。還請大家協助轉傳澄清，不要造成更多恐慌。
　
Most people infected with COVID-19 virus have mild disease and recover. Approximately 80% of laboratory confirmed patients have had mild to moderate disease, which includes non-pneumonia and pneumonia cases, 13.8% have severe disease (dyspnea, respiratory frequency ≥30/minute, blood oxygen saturation ≤93%, PaO2/FiO2 ratio <300, and/or lung infiltrates >50% of the lung field within 24-48 hours) and 6.1% are critical (respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure).
　
Asymptomatic infection has been reported, but the majority of the relatively rare cases who are asymptomatic on the date of identification/report went on to develop disease. The proportion of truly asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare and does not appear to be a major driver of transmission.
　
大多數感染了COVID-19病毒的人患有輕度疾病並可以康復。 大約 80% 的實驗室確診患者患有輕度至中度疾病，包括非肺炎和肺炎病例，13.8 % 患有嚴重疾病（呼吸困難，呼吸頻率 ≥30/ min，血氧飽和度≤ 93%，PaO2 / FiO2 比 < 300 例和/或在 24-48 小時內肺部浸潤 > 50% 的肺野）和 6.1% 至關重要（呼吸衰竭，敗血性休克和/或多器官功能障礙/衰竭）。
　
有無症狀感染的報導，但在鑑定/報告之日無症狀的大多數相對罕見的病例繼續發展為疾病。 真正無症狀感染的比例尚不清楚，但目前證據顯示相對較少，並且不是傳播的主要驅動力！
　
#WHO報告名稱
Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
　
#下載連結刻意不縮址
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
　
#做好防疫勿輕忽
#查證消息勿恐慌

大約一個月前有外國皂友留言詢問我「胺基酸皂」的製作，他應該是用了翻譯軟體用中文留言讓我印象很深刻，完全被他的誠意感動就來一鍋吧！

「胺基酸皂」跟我們常做的冷製皂非常不同，成品的pH5.5是非常適合用來洗顏的弱酸性，泡沫豐盈溫和洗感超棒的。

Few months ago, I got a message asking about "Amino Soap" from @عالم الصابون والاعشاب ومستحضرات التجميل. I'm quite touched because the message was written in Chinese (looks like from google translation ). So I arranged this video demonstrating how to make the "Amino Soap"

It is very different from the CP soaps that we made very often. The pH value is about 5.5, very suitable for facial use. The texture is wonderful.

【配方/Recipe】
椰油醯基谷胺酸/Cocoyl glutamic acid: 350g
丙二醇/propylene glycol: 90g
甘油/glycerin: 100g
純水/purified water: 175g
三乙醇胺/triethanol amine: 250g
茉莉花瓣香精/demure jasmine petals fragrance oil: 20ml
氨基酸起泡劑/sodium lauroyl methylaminopropionate: 35g
金箔/gold foil: 適量/moderate

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為紀念巴哈生日，我們放上中英文解說，並在影片加上字幕了，讀了文字後，讓我們欣賞這段相當 #入心的 #非常具個人風格的巴哈

To commemorate J.S.Bach — 1

Let’s start from a slow and
introspection works from Bach.
It is different from the conservative definition to French Suite. Presented this work from an independent music, gave this century music full of modern and personal spirit.

It is moderate, internal, in the midnight. Sit down with ease, throw the traditional impression away. The work finally had the different interpretation because the player’s personality. It's very fit for the midnight time that you enjoy by yourself.

This interpretation is like from three centuries ago, from Bach till now. It is the prayer from human beings! “ Who am I? Am I alone? Look up to the sky, God, How can I feel your mercy ? ”

The whispers from inner heart, sometimes turn out to a smoke and floating up to the sky, pray for God’s compassion.

英文翻譯--林庭瑀

就從這首很慢、很心內的巴哈開始吧!

不依循傳統對於法國組曲的定義，以獨立樂曲之姿呈現，賦予百年音樂一個現代且具個人風格的新精神。

很慢、很內心、很深的夜。聽前先坐舒服，拋開既定印象，因爲演奏者的個性，賦予此曲另一種風貌，非常適合夜深人靜孤單的那一刻。

這個詮釋就像是三百多年來，從巴哈到現代，人們心中的禱詞。

「我是誰？我是孤寂嗎？靜夜中仰望著天：上帝！如何才能感受你慈悲的慰藉？」

這些心中的默語，有時化為一縷輕煙飄向天，祈求悲憫的溫柔。

影片選自2015 RUBATO聯合音樂會