Elon Musk的演講藝術

Presentality的Andrew大大來幫大家分析了!

Elon Musk 違反賈伯斯時代的演講準則，反而加深自己的魅力!

Elon Musk 可說是全世界影響力最高的商業領袖之一，而且在媒體及社群媒體的聲望奇高無比（IG 有200萬追隨者，Twitter 有6000萬），甚至一句話就可以影響市場的走向。

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他肯定是溝通大師對不對？而且舞台魅力一定很強大？

Well... 從溝通成效的角度來看，他是很厲害沒錯，但如果你看任何一場他的演講，你肯定會覺得很困惑。你會覺得：這個人怎麼這麼尷尬，這麼不會講話？

隨便在 Youtube 上面搜尋他演講的影片，看個幾分鐘，你就會知道我們在說什麼了。看個幾分鐘就可以跳出至少以下的問題：

• 說話吱吱唔唔，贅字一堆
• 停頓在很尷尬的地方，感覺不知道自己在哪裡
• 投影片視覺，跟口述的內容常常對不起來
• 容易忘記自己要說什麼，明顯要去偷瞄一下投影片，不然無法繼續說等等...

啊... 那他到底厲害在哪裡？為什麼一個講話這麼尷尬不流暢的人，能夠迷惑全球這麼多人，發揮如此大的影響力？

我們看完一些他演講影片的結論，是他的魅力來源，跟「前一波」的商業領袖，如 Steve Jobs，截然不同。你甚至可以說，**他們的風格是完全相反的。**

我們今天就從 Musk 的一些演講中，來看他的反向操作！

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📌 反操作1：Jobs Overstates, Musk Understates

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首先，Steve Jobs 開始用的一個「技巧」，說好聽是「讚嘆」，說難聽就是「誇大」，不論發表的產品是否真的是突破性創新，反正就是用 "incredible"、"revolutionary" 等字眼來形容。英文的一個形容，就是 "overstatement" - 把什麼東西都講的「超過」一點。

結果一大堆商業演講的人，做產品無法像 Jobs，但用誇張的形容詞卻學的很像。

Musk 就不一樣。

他自己知道他做的事情很難（讓永續能源普及、把人類變成多個星球的物種），所以他反而用很「沒什麼大不了」的字眼跟語氣來傳達，反而讓這種「謙虛」變成一種效果。這個就不是 "overstatement"，而是 “understatement" - 什麼東西都講的收斂一點。

舉個例子：他2016年介紹太陽能屋頂的時候，有描述一個很大，很難實現的未來，是這樣說的：

> What is the future that we want? It's consisted of really appealing solar roof... then combine that with storage, and with electric cars.

It's an obvious 3-part solution... Yeah... 3 part solution... uh...

It's really not that complicated.

沒錯，他講完之後停頓了一下，然後說嗯，對，就是三個部分，真的沒那麼複雜 lol。

好比在跟聽眾說：「啊就很簡單啊，你們還要我說什麼？」連聽眾都笑出來：

影片: https://youtu.be/4sfwDyiPTdU?t=187

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如果是賈伯斯派的門徒來說，可能會說：

➜We are building a grand future - a future of endless renewable energy and clean mobility, but with the sort of convenience you couldn't even imagine.

To build this, we've had to overcome a trinity of challenges that have bedeviled generations prior:
1. Houses that generate energy during the day all by themselves
2. Efficient and integrated storage
3. And the best electric cars the world has ever seen

Ok，我寫的有點誇張，但 you get the point。

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他最近在發表 Tesla Bot 的演講中，也描述了一個很大的未來，你看看他的說法：

➜ What is the economy? It is uh... at the foundation, it's labor. So what happens when there's... uh... no shortage of labor?

So I think in the long-term, there will need to be universal basic income (applause)... Not right now, because the robot doesn't work (laugh)... we just need a minute.

Essentially, in the future, physical work will be a choice... if you want to do it, you can, but you wouldn't need to do it. Obviously it has profound implications for the economy, because... the economy, at its foundational level, is labor, and capital is just distilled labor, then... is there an actual limit to the economy? Maybe not...

你很難想像有人可以把一些這麼遠大的願景 - 人力工作變成一個選擇、每人都享有基本收入等等 - 用更平鋪直述的方式，沒什麼好大驚小怪的語氣說出來。

連開發萬用機器人的難度，他都只是說 "We just need a minute" lol。

Again 歡迎你們自己看影片，體驗一下：https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUP6Z5voiS8

Btw... Musk 還隨口說了一句 "capital is just distilled labor"。別叫我翻譯，因為我根本不知道這是什麼意思，尤其是 "distilled" 在這裡的用意。如果你去 google "distilled labor"，也找不到什麼東西，只有不到兩千個 search result。

有人會覺得 Musk 太聰明了，所以才會常常說出正常人不懂的話，但我個人覺得他是故意的：就是要「埋」一些每人聽得懂的話，才能加深他「天才」的形象。

Musk 把複雜困難的事情說成很簡單，還有另一個好處：就是大家可能會覺得「這些很難的事情，好像難不倒他耶，嗯他看來真的是個天才！」

大家可能有時候會聽人家說，在西方，就是要懂得如何吹捧自己。但其實有時候不一定要這樣。

💡你做的事情是真功夫時，謙虛反而會放大。

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📌 反操作2：尷尬反而是魅力

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其實，在賈伯斯用流暢的舞台表演稱霸市場之後，很多企業家都下苦工，練就一身演說武功。如 Bill Gates 或是 Mark Zuckerberg，都很明顯的從內向而且不會演講的人，變成老練的演說家。

Musk 很明顯沒有。Honestly, he's not even trying。

上面的影片，一個是2016年，一個是2021年，你覺得哪個舞台上的 Elon Musk，比較尷尬？這個當然有點主觀，但我兩個都看完之後，會覺得今年的他，講的更卡，更不好。

但是 Elon Musk 很明顯的根本沒有在 care 這一塊 lol。如果他有心要成為非常流暢的講者，你覺得這種小事能夠難倒他嗎？

…

還需要Musk暗藏玄機的演講技巧嗎? 需要的同學請按個讚和留言「Must learn from Musk」。

需要更多的演講分析與技巧請追蹤Presentality!

圖片出處: https://bit.ly/3mKfjyX

In vacation mode. A busy week for earnings, but I hope it will be a week for me to relax.

🌻CPI
"There are four main trends underlying the June inflation report. First are the items where prices fell sharply at the start of the pandemic and that are now returning to their pre-pandemic levels. Second are items where prices have temporarily risen above their pre-pandemic levels due to supply constraints and could come down. Third are items where prices are likely settling at a permanently higher level. And fourth are items where price increases have slowed rather than accelerated as a result of the pandemic, at least for now."

"Increases in owners’ equivalent rents—the Labor Department’s estimate of what homeowners would have to pay each month if they were renting their own home—also haven’t rebounded very far."

"Those prices could pick up in the months ahead, Ms. Bostjancic said, in part due to rapid increases in home prices. It takes about 18 months for a rise in real-estate prices to translate into stronger owners’ equivalent rents, she said.

“That’s one of those categories that needs to catch up following the worst of the pandemic,” she said.

That could add to inflation pressures in the coming months. Shelter costs represent almost a third of the basket of goods and services that the department looks at to calculate overall inflation."

Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-hits-some-prices-more-than-others-11626187838

🌻附上本周發表財報公司一覽表.
上週的類股表現, 並不是很好(連大型股都在跌). 看看這周的財報結果會不會有幫助.

🌻針對餐飲業做了些研究. 筆記可在下兩個地方找到.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1fhdoW1ah60klvwZGvejQ84WNz_EKgMAL_GZURDXsCo4/edit?usp=sharing

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1KOheA9qkAFoC0swFaNZVmnDtwK_hEbXou32FSA4Lqfo/edit?usp=sharing

目前餐飲業的窘境: 餐飲業在各產業中, 薪資較低. 疫情後, 因有人怕被病毒傳染(因為餐飲業是與人高度接觸的行業之一), 或是轉往薪資較高的產業, 或是想找到生活上的平衡(因為餐飲業時間特殊), 或因為家中有幼孩需要照顧, 所以餐飲業人力資源在疫情後反彈的情況, 不若其他產業. 解法? Technology.

Pictures:
1. A Companion of Diana (1724) by Jean-Louise Lemonyne. National Art Gallery (in Washington D.C.)珍藏.
https://www.nga.gov/collection/art-object-page.1272.html
狄阿娜（拉丁語：Diana），羅馬神話中的月亮女神和狩獵女神，眾神之王朱庇特和溫柔的暗夜女神拉托娜的女兒，太陽神阿波羅的孿生姐妹。
https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hant/%E7%8B%84%E9%98%BF%E5%A8%9C
2. 點外帶的時候, 看到這張速食店缺工造成不便的告示, 意思就是, 因為缺工, 加上食物都是現做, 難免比之前更慢了. 請不要因此而發脾氣. 很辛苦的餐飲人員.
3. From earningswhispers.com

🌻另一個Zoom會議(第二次貼......有補上一些內容)
繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).
主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算基礎的估值會議)
主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment　(此為小揚的粉絲頁)
參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.
時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間９點.
預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問
進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)

🌻Morgan Stanley Mid-year Investor Outlook: A tricky transition

https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/midyear-2021-global-markets-outlook

🌻在您投資生涯中, 有沒有一些觀念讓您受用很多?
下面這位投資名人的好觀念影響我很深. 他的意思是, 一般投資人, 只要能説出三個買一家公司的理由, 就很夠了. 這也迫使我, 每次在買股票時, 問自己對這家公司的了解有多少. 也會去衡量公司的優點與缺點在哪裡.

"It is vital (重要的) that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks."

全文在此:
Jim Cramer: In Times Like This, Go for the Easy Money
Look at the stocks you own. Can you tell me why you've got them? If you can't answer the following three questions, then have a look at several I like right now.

We've endured the meme stock craziness, with all of its love for heavily shorted stocks. We have watched the collapse of bitcoin to levels viewed as shocking, even if they are still more than double where they were not that long ago. We've dealt with Fed officials making it clear that they are no longer on the side of the bulls or the bears. They are on the side of job growth, but are wary of inflation. We've seen the end of the rush to get vaccines, which means that millions of people are going to get the new COVID variant, because there is no natural immunity to it. We've watched as the hopes for an infrastructure bill have collapsed. We've endured shortages of everything from chips to plastic to imported goods and labor.

And we're still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Yep, we are in one of those halcyon moments, where the masks are off -- even if they shouldn't be -- and Americans are back doing what they do best: consume, spend, go out to eat and then consume and spend some more.

There are times in the stock market where the collective mindset is revealed. This is one of those times: Things are cool, it's not a big moment, there's no real news for a bit, it's the historically strong period and we can reach some conclusions about where we are.

When things are like this, it is important to remember that buyers like to revert to tried-and-true companies that thrive no matter what. These are companies that have an edge and are better at what they do than other companies.

You know that I am a great believer in index funds, that the average person doesn't have the time or the inclination to research individual stocks. It's a difficult barrier. I think you need to make time to read the quarterly report and listen to the conference call, to Google articles and, if possible, get some research about the companies you own. It is vital that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks. I am reminded by this, because, once again, without a mask, I can be recognized and if I am not holding "Nvidia the Second," I can carry on a conversation.

I have had many in the last two weeks and when I have asked this litany of questions, I find myself at a loss as to why almost no one knew what they owned. But they thirsted for individual stocks, because they, like me, think things are better post pandemic. No, that's not a facetious comment. Many, many stocks did better with a stay-at-home economy. A huge number.

So what do I do? I revert to what others do when you are stumped about how to stay in touch with stocks, but want to do less homework. That means buying stocks that are accessible, not stocks like Unity (U) or Snowflake (SNOW) or Twilio (TWLO) or Okta (OKTA) .

I revert to normal businesses people know and I suggest they Google some articles, peruse the conference call, but, above all, like the company's products so you can buy more if it goes down.

Here's some that I have been telling people I like:

First is Ford (F) . I think the Ford lineup is amazing. The electric F-150 series will be incredible. I am eager to get a Maverick for my family, because it is a smaller pickup that will get the job done for the myriad little things I need to do with this farm I bought from that crazy bitcoin foray. I like the competitive edge of the CEO, who says he is going to bury Elon Musk when the Lightning comes out. I even think the Bronco is cool as all get out. Most important, though? I think the chip shortage is ending. My semiconductor friends are telling me the foundries are producing more feature-rich chips and that means Ford can pump out the trucks small business people love and need. Plus, the used car prices at last have plateaued, according to their most important pricing index. Halcyon times.

Second, Costco (COST) : The samples are coming back. Tell me you don't love the samples. You need things in bulk. You want low prices. You want to get all of the things that people don't think of with Costco, like insurance, hearing-aids -- hey, they are a fortune -- jewelry, things around the house. You go and you will buy far more than you first came for. My kind of store.

The kids love this American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) , which we just bought for my charitable trust, which you can follow along by joining the Action Alerts PLUS club. Jay Schottenstein, the CEO, came on "Mad Money" recently and it's clear that his Aerie model has real staying power: 26 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. No flash in the pan, that one. Number one brand in jeans for the 15 to 25 year old group. The best in the mall. How did I know this? I see the credit card bills.

I got up this morning to do my physical therapy. I have been doing it ever since I hurt my back in February. I have this really cool pair of sneakers that fit me perfectly and I love them, but I am fortunate enough to have a vacation house and I am always taking those shoes with me.

So I went on Amazon (AMZN) this morning and lo and behold I saw them for half price. I bought two pairs. Then I went over everything I have bought in the last year and got a bunch of those things. Then I bought a pair of binoculars, because mine were stolen. I paid half price.

Yep, Amazon's universal. I was talking to Alexa, while I was ordering, getting some new music on, asking questions. I saw that despite all of the Sturm und Drang of Amazon being late with things, all the delivery dates were within range. I didn't click on any ads, and I didn't need the speed of Web Services, but the whole thing reminded me about how special the darned company is. I don't care if it's ahead or behind plan for the moment. I would just buy some more when it goes down.

Finally, Apple (AAPL) . I think people who don't own Apple should look what they are holding at this very moment. Yes, right now. Or look at what's in your lap or on the table besides your fork. And then think about the bill you paid last night without knowing it. Think about what you bought in the App store yesterday. Think about what would happen if it would break or get stolen or, left in the Uber (UBER) , or heaven forbid, be dropped into the pool or in the, yes, toilet.

There, that's what you buy in halcyon times. Stocks of companies you know that if they go lower, because things get less halcyon, you are fine with it and buy more. If things go up, believe me, you will participate.

So accept the moment. Don't try for the hard money. Go for the easy kind. That's the best kind.

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer--15692051

Picture: 牡丹(peony)花開. 恨不得院子裡有一塊地是牡丹園.

本集主題：「打狗漫騎：高雄港史單車踏查」介紹
　　　　　　　
訪問作者：陳奕齊
　　　　
內容簡介：
　　大港的風華與滄桑，你所不知道的高雄事……
　　一本騎著單車，從「打狗」穿越「高雄」的另類旅遊書；
　　一本透視地景，從「高雄」看見「台灣」的知性歷史書。

　　「高雄港區」如今是高雄市民與觀光客休閒親水、旅遊踏青的好去處，但當前港區的空間，卻曾受到長達五十年之久的軍事管制！究竟「打狗港」為什麼成為閒人勿近的「軍事禁地」？又怎麼逐步隨著台灣的政治、社會與經濟發展，重新屬於高雄市民實在的生活空間？而在港區開放、城市觀光發展的過程中，熙來攘往的遊客、呼嘯而過的單車，如何能與高雄港區的人文精神與歷史脈動有所共鳴，而不只是過目即忘的走馬看花？

　　來到愛河，這裡曾是讓人避之唯恐不及的「臭水溝」，也曾是展演情慾的紅燈區，它不但是政治的舞台，更是台灣草根民主的搖籃。而在黨國統治之下，「軍港」與「商港」合一的高雄港，不僅孕育出獨特的碼頭勞動制度與文化，見證拆船業、機械五金街的興起，更寫下了台灣香蕉由盛而衰的出口傳奇，以及加工區經濟的工傷紀實。來到旗后山，想像海賊王林道乾飛往泰國北大年的神話，尋找黃飛鴻在砲台練兵的身影，再一路抵達旗津大陳聚落，翻開政治移民的滄桑生命史，對照台籍老兵流轉的悲劇身世，高雄港的記憶與高雄人的故事，無疑就是台灣歷史的一頁縮影。

　　本書精選十條高雄港區單車路線，帶領讀者走進老高雄的時光隧道。讓我們騎著單車，在海風中傾聽大港歷史的呼吸，以及老高雄人的生命點滴。在不斷蛻變的風景之中，透過在地的踏查與歷史的挖掘與想像，真正地認識高雄，也重新走進你我所居所處的每一個地方。

　　＊本書榮獲高雄市政府文化局書寫高雄出版獎助　　　
作者簡介：陳奕齊
　　政治大學勞工研究所畢業。
　　荷蘭萊頓大學區域研究中心博士候選人。
　　基進側翼政團發起人，筆名「新一」。

　　著有《New Bondage and Old Resistance: Realities and Challenges of the Labor Movement in Taiwan》（與Monina Wong同著）、《想像越界：國際與在地政經批判》、《移民、苦力、落腳處：從布袋人到高雄人》（與魏聰洲和廖沛怡同著）、《國民黨治台片斷考》、《黨國治下的台灣「草民」史》、《看！中國熱？！》及本書《打狗漫騎：高雄港史單車踏查》。
　　　
　　　　　　　　
作者粉絲頁： 陳奕齊 - 新一
　　　　　　
出版社粉絲頁： 前衛出版社

　　


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李基銘的影音頻道粉絲頁：https://www.facebook.com/voh.video
漢聲廣播電台「fb新鮮事」節目粉絲頁：https://www.facebook.com/voh.vhbn
漢聲廣播電台「快樂玩童軍」節目粉絲頁：https://www.facebook.com/voh.scout
漢聲廣播電台「生活有意思」節目粉絲頁：https://www.facebook.com/voh.life

不好意思昨天的影片傷到各位的耳朵了
不知道為什麼內建的麥克風設定跑掉
今天重新錄好~希望大家的耳朵聽得舒服!
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Hello! 喜歡這樣的內容嗎? 我出課程囉!
用心準備超過半年，我的《情境式多益單字課》終於上線啦!!!
連結在這邊~趕快去看看吧 ➡️https://bit.ly/39RlbOm
謝謝! 感謝! 感恩!
Thanks! Thank you! Thank you very much!
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Cindy陪你利用零碎時間背單字到12-2囉!
每個人的零碎時間長度不同~請多多利用暫停+回放調整囉!
這集介紹的英文單字有：
sample, quality, quantity, rise, scale, tool, upgrade
productivity, volume, method, labor, equipment
capacity, plant, monitor

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