【After Winning Majority in LegCo: Beijing's Crackdown May Trigger International Intervention】

***感謝Hong Kong Columns - Translated，將我早前撰寫『議會過半想像：以「#國際攬炒」反制「臨立會2.0」』長文（https://www.facebook.com/joshuawongchifung/photos/a.313299448762570/2887650867994069/）翻譯成英文，鼓勵國際社會關注立會選舉一旦過半的沙盤推演，在最惡劣形勢下的制衡策略。***

中文精簡版本：https://www.facebook.com/joshuawongchifung/photos/a.564294826996363/2888641404561682/

Hongkongers have experienced our revolution for over half a year. They no longer take a consequentialist view to the effectiveness of their movement as they did years ago, or waste time second-guessing the intentions and background of fellow activists. Following the defensive battles at CUHK and PolyU, November’s District Council election saw a great victory of unity. More marvellous is the union between peaceful and “valiant” protesters.

In the process of resisting tyranny, the people have realised that one cannot prioritize one strategy over another. This is also how the common goal of “35+” came into being—the hope that we will win over half of the seats in the Legislative Council (LegCo) this September, such that the political spectrum that represents the majority of Hongkongers is able to gain control of legislative decisions. The political clout of Hongkongers will increase if 35 or more seats are successfully secured on our side. It is certainly one vital step to achieve the five demands within the system.

The possibility of realizing legislative majority

Technically it is not unrealistic to win a majority even under the current undemocratic system. Back in the 2016 LegCo election, we already won 30 seats. In addition to the District Council (First) functional constituency seat that is already in the pocket of the pan-democrats, as long as the candidates in Kowloon East and New Territories West do not start infighting again, we could safely secure 33 seats based on the number of pan-dem votes in 2016.

The other 3 seats required to achieve a majority depend on democrats’ breakthrough among the functional constituencies by dispersing the resources of the Liaison Office. They also count on whether the turnout this September could exceed 71.2% — that of last year’s District Council elections. Some of the factors that could affect the turnout include: will the epidemic persist into the summer? Will there be potential violent repression of protests in the 2 weeks preceding the election? Will Hong Kong-US relations be affected by the downturn of the global economy?

Therefore, the ambition of “35+” is to be prioritised by the resistance as both a means and an end. I have already expressed my support for an intra-party primary at the coordination meeting. In the meantime, it is pleasing to see the ongoing debates reaching a consensus of maximising the seats among geographical constituencies in the upcoming election.

Whilst enthusiastic coordination, we should also assess the post-election landscape and gauge Beijing’s reactions: if we do not reach 35 seats, Hong Kong will be subject to tighter control and more severe repression by China; but if the democratic parties successfully form a majority in LegCo, CCP’s fears of a “constitutional crisis” would become imminent. Hence, the key questions are how the Pan-Democrats should deal with the volatile political situation in Hong Kong and how they are going to meet Beijing’s charge head-on.

Watching out for Beijing’s dismissal of LegCo after reaching majority

To take back control of LegCo such that it faithfully reflects the majority’s principles and needs is the definition of a healthy democracy. Recently, however, DAB’s Tam Yiu-chung has warned that the plan of the Pan-Dems to “usurp power” in the LegCo would only lead to Beijing’s forceful disqualification of certain members or the interpretation of the Basic Law. This proves that winning a majority in LegCo is not only a popular conception but also a realistic challenge that would get on the nerves of Beijing. Could Beijing accept a President James To in LegCo? These unknown variables must be addressed upon achieving a majority.

While there is no telltale sign as to Beijing’s exact strategy, we are already familiar with the way CCP manipulated the Basic Law in the past 4 years. Having experienced three waves of disqualifications in LegCo, twice kicked out of LegCo with my team, and thrice locked up in jail, I have no false hopes of an easy compromise from Beijing: they would not let Pan-Dems control LegCo for half a year and wait (as is the proper procedure) until after having negatived the Budget to dissolve the legislature, and thereby giving them an easy victory in the re-elections. The greater the Pan-Dems threaten Beijing’s rule in Hong Kong, the more likely that it will trigger Beijing’s repression.

Since the disqualification and arrest of lawmakers have already become “normalised”, one can even imagine the police stepping into the LegCo building to force Pan-Dems into voting. Neither is it beyond our imagination to expect the CCP to kick out all 70 lawmakers in a fit of rage and replace them with a provisional LegCo “2.0” [HKCT note: The first was from 25 Jan 1997 to 30 Jun 1998]. To depend on a majority that could lead to a chapter of a “new testament” for One Country, Two Systems is perhaps what many elites long for, but they are overly optimistic:for a ticket to the promised land will not be available at the Chief Executive election campaign a year and a half later.

Admittedly, the Pan-Dems cannot unilaterally initiate “Laam-chaau” [HKCT note: mostly translated into “scorched-earth” mentality or “mutual destruction”; some even translated into “If I burn, you burn with us”]. The most they can do is to force a standstill of the government, and not for long the LegCo will have been eliminated from the equation to make the wheels turn again. It all leaves the plan of “Negativing the motion → Dissolving LegCo → Re-election after re-election → the stepping down of Carrie Lam” merely as overly positive speculation, probably resulting from their overestimate of CCP's capacity for rational calculation. The Pan-Dems must guard their frontlines and recognise what the biggest threat from Hong Kong to China could be. In this case, should LegCo sessions be disrupted or suspended, the Pan-Dems would have to be well prepared to surmount the expected obstacles and prevent the disqualification crisis 4 years ago—a Catch-22 indeed.

Productive tension from global intervention: Using Laam-chaau against the CCP

What aggravates the CCP the most is the potential threat to Hong Kong’s unique status as the one and only “separate customs territory”. Any miscalculation will compromise its role as the Chinese economy’s “white gloves”. Imagine if CCP were to disqualify all 70 elected lawmakers and convene a meeting north of the Shenzhen River to pass a resolution to Hong Kong’s affairs (much like the Provisional Legislative Council “1.0" in 1997), how great will the shock be in a world with an effective Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act? However hard it is to predict the future one thing is certain: With the US presidential election just around the corner, blows to the separation of powers would not be tolerated, and the West would necessarily effect countermeasures against the Hong Kong government.

Beijing has been relying upon Hong Kong to navigate the international community for decades. While clamping down on the political freedom of the cosmopolitan city, Beijing desires to maintain the financial centre’s economic freedom. Hence, we started lobbying for the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act four years ago, and today we are determined to promote “Laam-chaau” on an international scale.

The will of the voters must be reflected in an election. If a “35+” legislature were to be dismissed and replaced, such flagrant violation of democracy would assuredly cause a greater backlash than the infamous extradition bill. Knowing what the reality ahead of us could be, we have to combine our election and international strategies to oppose the placement of a 35+ LegCo with an “Emergency Legislative Council 2.0”, to advance an international “Laam-chaau” to Hong Kong’s status as “separate customs territory”. Only then will we stand a chance to resist the regime and to realise the five demands.

Adjusting our mindset: Overcoming the “constitutional crisis” to reach a resolution

Upon the realization of the “35+” LegCo, it is expected that the CCP will launch a devastating counterattack. The Pan-Dems should not expect LegCo to run normally; neither can the lawmakers realise their governing blueprints they have for Hong Kong. Rather, candidates will be able to compete against one another with visions of a liberated Hong Kong through popular vote. Bringing this point up has nothing to do with undermining the common goal of reaching a majority in LegCo, but rather channels the battle of LegCo to positive use upon the rule of law’s death and a “constitutional crisis” ahead. Knowing that Hongkongers have nothing to fall back on, all Pan-Dems should not miss the only way to the realization of “35+”.

Thus, be they partisans, nonpartisans, incumbent politicians, amateur politicians, or the civil society as a whole – if we stay in the political discourse of 2016 and continue to perpetuate old stereotypes, that is to deal with the divisions on the pan-democratic camp by favouring the most “local” faction; to consider only resource allocation and self-aggrandizement as the purpose of a LegCo campaign; to ignore how potential lawmakers are fitted to what specific roles; to turn a blind eye to the journey of resistance since last summer (extending indefinitely into the future)—They would lead as astray and cost us lose a precious opportunity for change by winning a 35+ majority.

The extent to which the pan-democrats can stay united in light of the political atmosphere since last summer is another problem that our side must to address. Before the watershed moment of 12th June 2019, many democratic delegates were trapped in the mentality of needing to “preserve people’s livelihood”, “be content of what we have accomplished”, and other strategies that favours stability. As the government refuses to heed to the five demands, whether the democrats, especially those in the functional constituencies, have the political will to go all-in is the real difficult question that confronts us in the upcoming LegCo election.

All in all, if “35+” cannot be realised, it is unsurprising to see LegCo being more heavily suppressed in the next 4 years; even if "35+" is achieved, it is questionable whether the pan-democrats are able to weather multiple attacks, verbal or physical, from the regime (judging from its power in the last four years) and utilise the international Laam-chaau strategy against the displacement of LegCo. Adhering to the motto of “we fight on, each in his own way”, I can only hope that Hongkongers in elections, street confrontations and international front can reconcile with each other, so that we may collectively compel the government to yield to our demands in the next six months. It is only by reaching a resolution before a real constitutional crisis that we can combat the institutional violence of the regime and not be devoured by it.

https://hkcolumn.blogspot.com/2020/04/joshua-wong-after-winning-majority-in.html?fbclid=IwAR216gf53pG_j9JOpDfr2GItvjLfrFSekKTPzoEs3-s9KBqvPEwz865P8vw

[時事英文] 蔡英文總統BBC專訪關鍵英文詞彙

今天要來與大家分享蔡英文總統的BBC專訪! It's an insightful one!

★★★★★★★★★★★★

專訪(中文): https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/chinese-news-51115705

專訪(英文): https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51104246

報導內有影片!

★★★★★★★★★★★★

Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen has told the BBC that China needs to "face reality" and show the island "respect".

1. face reality 面對現實
2. show respect 表示尊重

★★★★★★★★★★★★

She was re-elected for a second term on Saturday, winning by a landslide after a campaign in which she focused heavily on the rising threat from Beijing.

3. win by a landslide 以壓倒性優勢獲勝
4. focus heavily on... 特別專注於...
5. rising threat 上升的威脅

★★★★★★★★★★★★

The Chinese Communist Party has long claimed sovereignty over Taiwan and the right to take it by force if necessary. Ms Tsai* insisted that the sovereignty of the self-governing island was not in doubt or up for negotiation.

-\-\BBC

6. the Chinese Communist Party 中國共產黨
7. claim sovereignty 主張主權
8. take it by force 以武力攻下台灣
9. the sovereignty of ...的主權
10. self governing 自治的
11. not in doubt 毫無疑問
12. not up for negotiation 不能談判

*President Tsai

★★★★★★★★★★★★

"We don't have a need to declare ourselves an independent state," the 63-year-old president told the BBC in an exclusive interview, her first since the election. "We are an independent country already and we call ourselves the Republic of China, Taiwan."

13. declare 宣布
14. an independent state 一個獨立的國家；政府
15. exclusive interview 專訪
16. an independent country 一個獨立國家

★★★★★★★★★★★★

Such statements infuriate Beijing, which wants a return to the "One China" principle favoured by the main rival she saw off in the race for president, Han Kuo-yu from the Kuomintang party. His party traces its roots to the defeated nationalists in the Chinese civil war, who fled to Taiwan and continued to see the island as part of a greater China from which they had been usurped.

17. infuriate 激怒
18. return to 還給, 歸回
19. main rival 主要競爭對手
20. trace its roots 追根溯源
21. defeated the nationalists 戰敗的國民黨
22. flee to 逃往
23. be usurped 被篡奪

★★★★★★★★★★★★

In recent years, that concept of One China has proved a useful compromise, Taiwanese supporters of it argue. China insists on its acceptance as a prerequisite for building economic ties with Taiwan, precisely because doing so is an explicit denial of its existence as a de facto island state.

24. a useful compromise 有用的協定, 妥協
25. insist on 堅持
26. a prerequisite for... ...的先決條件
27. build economic ties 建立經濟聯繫
28. a explicit denial 明確否認
29. de facto 事實上

★★★★★★★★★★★★

But it is clear that Ms Tsai* believes her victory is proof of how little appetite there now is for the One China concept and the ambiguity it allowed over Taiwan's real status. "The situation has changed," she says. "The ambiguity can no longer serve the purposes it was intended to serve." And what has really changed, she suggests, is China.

-\-\BBC

30. it is clear that… ...是清楚的
31. proof of… …的證明
32. how little appetite there is for... 對...沒有多少胃口; 對...不接受
33. One China concept 一個中國的概念
34. ambiguity 模棱兩可
35. real status 真實狀態
36. intend to serve… 所欲實現的（成效）

*President Tsai

★★★★★★★★★★★★

"Because [for more than] three years we're seeing China has been intensifying its threat... they have their military vessels and aircraft cruising around the island," she says. "And also, the things happening in Hong Kong, people get a real sense that this threat is real and it's getting more and more serious."

37. intensify its threat 加劇威脅
38. military vessels and aircrafts 軍艦和飛機
39. get more serious 變得更嚴重

★★★★★★★★★★★★

Taiwan's interests, she believes, are not best served by semantics but by facing up to the reality, in particular the aspirations of the Taiwanese youth who flocked to her cause. "We have a separate identity and we're a country of our own. So, if there's anything that runs counter to this idea, they will stand up and say that's not acceptable to us. "We're a successful democracy, we have a pretty decent economy, we deserve respect from China."

40. Taiwan’s interests are not best served by semantics. 文字遊戲並非最佳實現台灣利益（的方式）
41. semantics 語義學; 文字遊戲
42. face up to reality 面對現實
43. the aspirations of the Taiwanese youth 台灣青年的志向
44. flock to her cause 湧向她的目標
45. a separate identity 一個單獨的、不同的身份
46. run counter to 違反；有悖常理，背道而馳
47. a decent economy 像樣的、相當不錯的經濟制度
48. deserve respect 值得尊重

★★★★★★★★★★★★

Sources

https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/chinese-news-51115705

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51104246

https://www.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=5098630

Image source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51104246

★★★★★★★★★★★★

時事英文大全: https://wp.me/p44l9b-1Y8

[時事英文] 蔡英文總統BBC專訪關鍵英文詞彙

今天要來與大家分享蔡英文總統的BBC專訪! It's an insightful one!

★★★★★★★★★★★★

專訪(中文): https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/chinese-news-51115705

專訪(英文): https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51104246

報導內有影片!

★★★★★★★★★★★★

Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen has told the BBC that China needs to "face reality" and show the island "respect".

1. face reality 面對現實
2. show respect 表示尊重

★★★★★★★★★★★★

She was re-elected for a second term on Saturday, winning by a landslide after a campaign in which she focused heavily on the rising threat from Beijing.

3. win by a landslide 以壓倒性優勢獲勝
4. focus heavily on... 特別專注於...
5. rising threat 上升的威脅

★★★★★★★★★★★★

The Chinese Communist Party has long claimed sovereignty over Taiwan and the right to take it by force if necessary. Ms Tsai* insisted that the sovereignty of the self-governing island was not in doubt or up for negotiation.

--BBC

6. the Chinese Communist Party 中國共產黨
7. claim sovereignty 主張主權
8. take it by force 以武力攻下台灣
9. the sovereignty of ...的主權
10. self governing 自治的
11. not in doubt 毫無疑問
12. not up for negotiation 不能談判

*President Tsai

★★★★★★★★★★★★

"We don't have a need to declare ourselves an independent state," the 63-year-old president told the BBC in an exclusive interview, her first since the election. "We are an independent country already and we call ourselves the Republic of China, Taiwan."

13. declare 宣布
14. an independent state 一個獨立的國家；政府
15. exclusive interview 專訪
16. an independent country 一個獨立國家

★★★★★★★★★★★★

Such statements infuriate Beijing, which wants a return to the "One China" principle favoured by the main rival she saw off in the race for president, Han Kuo-yu from the Kuomintang party. His party traces its roots to the defeated nationalists in the Chinese civil war, who fled to Taiwan and continued to see the island as part of a greater China from which they had been usurped.

17. infuriate 激怒
18. return to 還給, 歸回
19. main rival 主要競爭對手
20. trace its roots 追根溯源
21. defeated the nationalists 戰敗的國民黨
22. flee to 逃往
23. be usurped 被篡奪

★★★★★★★★★★★★

In recent years, that concept of One China has proved a useful compromise, Taiwanese supporters of it argue. China insists on its acceptance as a prerequisite for building economic ties with Taiwan, precisely because doing so is an explicit denial of its existence as a de facto island state.

24. a useful compromise 有用的協定, 妥協
25. insist on 堅持
26. a prerequisite for... ...的先決條件
27. build economic ties 建立經濟聯繫
28. a explicit denial 明確否認
29. de facto 事實上

★★★★★★★★★★★★

But it is clear that Ms Tsai* believes her victory is proof of how little appetite there now is for the One China concept and the ambiguity it allowed over Taiwan's real status. "The situation has changed," she says. "The ambiguity can no longer serve the purposes it was intended to serve." And what has really changed, she suggests, is China.

--BBC

30. it is clear that… ...是清楚的
31. proof of… …的證明
32. how little appetite there is for... 對...沒有多少胃口; 對...不接受
33. One China concept 一個中國的概念
34. ambiguity 模棱兩可
35. real status 真實狀態
36. intend to serve… 所欲實現的（成效）

*President Tsai

★★★★★★★★★★★★

"Because [for more than] three years we're seeing China has been intensifying its threat... they have their military vessels and aircraft cruising around the island," she says. "And also, the things happening in Hong Kong, people get a real sense that this threat is real and it's getting more and more serious."

37. intensify its threat 加劇威脅
38. military vessels and aircrafts 軍艦和飛機
39. get more serious 變得更嚴重

★★★★★★★★★★★★

Taiwan's interests, she believes, are not best served by semantics but by facing up to the reality, in particular the aspirations of the Taiwanese youth who flocked to her cause. "We have a separate identity and we're a country of our own. So, if there's anything that runs counter to this idea, they will stand up and say that's not acceptable to us. "We're a successful democracy, we have a pretty decent economy, we deserve respect from China."

40. Taiwan’s interests are not best served by semantics. 文字遊戲並非最佳實現台灣利益（的方式）
41. semantics 語義學; 文字遊戲
42. face up to reality 面對現實
43. the aspirations of the Taiwanese youth 台灣青年的志向
44. flock to her cause 湧向她的目標
45. a separate identity 一個單獨的、不同的身份
46. run counter to 違反；有悖常理，背道而馳
47. a decent economy 像樣的、相當不錯的經濟制度
48. deserve respect 值得尊重

★★★★★★★★★★★★

Sources

https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/chinese-news-51115705

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51104246

https://www.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=5098630

Image source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51104246

★★★★★★★★★★★★

時事英文大全: https://wp.me/p44l9b-1Y8

【電影NG】美國隊長3：英雄內戰NG片段 | KeNNyPlay3omething

Marvel's 'Captain America: Civil War' finds Steve Rogers leading the newly formed team of Avengers in their continued efforts to safeguard humanity. But after another incident involving the Avengers results in collateral damage, political pressure mounts to install a system of accountability, headed by a governing body to oversee and direct the team. The new status quo fractures the Avengers, resulting in two camps-one led by Steve Rogers and his desire for the Avengers to remain free to defend humanity without government interference, and the other following Tony Stark's surprising decision to support government oversight and accountability

美國隊長帶領全新組合的復仇者聯盟，繼續保衛地球。但當一宗大型事故，令捲入其中的復仇者連累受害後，有政治壓力要求引入問責制，成立新的管治組織管理復仇者。由此導致復仇者分裂成為兩大陣營——由美國隊長帶領的一方竭力維持自主免受政府干預，另一方的鐵甲奇俠卻出人意表地靠攏政權。勢不兩立之際，一班復仇者還要面對新的邪惡強敵⋯⋯

CAPTAIN AMERICA Civil War Bloopers
Cast : Chris Evans, Robert Downey Jr., Scarlett Johansson, Sebastian Stan, Anthony Mackie, Emily VanCamp, Don Cheadle, Jeremy Renner, Chadwick Boseman, Paul Bettany, Elizabeth Olsen, Paul Rudd et Frank Grillo, William Hurt, Daniel Brühl.

Genre : Super Hero, Action, Blockbuster

CAPTAIN AMERICA Civil War Making of
© 2016 - Marvel

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