🌻另一個Zoom會議(第二次貼......有補上一些內容)
繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).
主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算基礎的估值會議)
主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment　(此為小揚的粉絲頁)
參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.
時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間９點.
預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問
進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)

🌻Morgan Stanley Mid-year Investor Outlook: A tricky transition

https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/midyear-2021-global-markets-outlook

🌻在您投資生涯中, 有沒有一些觀念讓您受用很多?
下面這位投資名人的好觀念影響我很深. 他的意思是, 一般投資人, 只要能説出三個買一家公司的理由, 就很夠了. 這也迫使我, 每次在買股票時, 問自己對這家公司的了解有多少. 也會去衡量公司的優點與缺點在哪裡.

"It is vital (重要的) that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks."

全文在此:
Jim Cramer: In Times Like This, Go for the Easy Money
Look at the stocks you own. Can you tell me why you've got them? If you can't answer the following three questions, then have a look at several I like right now.

We've endured the meme stock craziness, with all of its love for heavily shorted stocks. We have watched the collapse of bitcoin to levels viewed as shocking, even if they are still more than double where they were not that long ago. We've dealt with Fed officials making it clear that they are no longer on the side of the bulls or the bears. They are on the side of job growth, but are wary of inflation. We've seen the end of the rush to get vaccines, which means that millions of people are going to get the new COVID variant, because there is no natural immunity to it. We've watched as the hopes for an infrastructure bill have collapsed. We've endured shortages of everything from chips to plastic to imported goods and labor.

And we're still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Yep, we are in one of those halcyon moments, where the masks are off -- even if they shouldn't be -- and Americans are back doing what they do best: consume, spend, go out to eat and then consume and spend some more.

There are times in the stock market where the collective mindset is revealed. This is one of those times: Things are cool, it's not a big moment, there's no real news for a bit, it's the historically strong period and we can reach some conclusions about where we are.

When things are like this, it is important to remember that buyers like to revert to tried-and-true companies that thrive no matter what. These are companies that have an edge and are better at what they do than other companies.

You know that I am a great believer in index funds, that the average person doesn't have the time or the inclination to research individual stocks. It's a difficult barrier. I think you need to make time to read the quarterly report and listen to the conference call, to Google articles and, if possible, get some research about the companies you own. It is vital that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks. I am reminded by this, because, once again, without a mask, I can be recognized and if I am not holding "Nvidia the Second," I can carry on a conversation.

I have had many in the last two weeks and when I have asked this litany of questions, I find myself at a loss as to why almost no one knew what they owned. But they thirsted for individual stocks, because they, like me, think things are better post pandemic. No, that's not a facetious comment. Many, many stocks did better with a stay-at-home economy. A huge number.

So what do I do? I revert to what others do when you are stumped about how to stay in touch with stocks, but want to do less homework. That means buying stocks that are accessible, not stocks like Unity (U) or Snowflake (SNOW) or Twilio (TWLO) or Okta (OKTA) .

I revert to normal businesses people know and I suggest they Google some articles, peruse the conference call, but, above all, like the company's products so you can buy more if it goes down.

Here's some that I have been telling people I like:

First is Ford (F) . I think the Ford lineup is amazing. The electric F-150 series will be incredible. I am eager to get a Maverick for my family, because it is a smaller pickup that will get the job done for the myriad little things I need to do with this farm I bought from that crazy bitcoin foray. I like the competitive edge of the CEO, who says he is going to bury Elon Musk when the Lightning comes out. I even think the Bronco is cool as all get out. Most important, though? I think the chip shortage is ending. My semiconductor friends are telling me the foundries are producing more feature-rich chips and that means Ford can pump out the trucks small business people love and need. Plus, the used car prices at last have plateaued, according to their most important pricing index. Halcyon times.

Second, Costco (COST) : The samples are coming back. Tell me you don't love the samples. You need things in bulk. You want low prices. You want to get all of the things that people don't think of with Costco, like insurance, hearing-aids -- hey, they are a fortune -- jewelry, things around the house. You go and you will buy far more than you first came for. My kind of store.

The kids love this American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) , which we just bought for my charitable trust, which you can follow along by joining the Action Alerts PLUS club. Jay Schottenstein, the CEO, came on "Mad Money" recently and it's clear that his Aerie model has real staying power: 26 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. No flash in the pan, that one. Number one brand in jeans for the 15 to 25 year old group. The best in the mall. How did I know this? I see the credit card bills.

I got up this morning to do my physical therapy. I have been doing it ever since I hurt my back in February. I have this really cool pair of sneakers that fit me perfectly and I love them, but I am fortunate enough to have a vacation house and I am always taking those shoes with me.

So I went on Amazon (AMZN) this morning and lo and behold I saw them for half price. I bought two pairs. Then I went over everything I have bought in the last year and got a bunch of those things. Then I bought a pair of binoculars, because mine were stolen. I paid half price.

Yep, Amazon's universal. I was talking to Alexa, while I was ordering, getting some new music on, asking questions. I saw that despite all of the Sturm und Drang of Amazon being late with things, all the delivery dates were within range. I didn't click on any ads, and I didn't need the speed of Web Services, but the whole thing reminded me about how special the darned company is. I don't care if it's ahead or behind plan for the moment. I would just buy some more when it goes down.

Finally, Apple (AAPL) . I think people who don't own Apple should look what they are holding at this very moment. Yes, right now. Or look at what's in your lap or on the table besides your fork. And then think about the bill you paid last night without knowing it. Think about what you bought in the App store yesterday. Think about what would happen if it would break or get stolen or, left in the Uber (UBER) , or heaven forbid, be dropped into the pool or in the, yes, toilet.

There, that's what you buy in halcyon times. Stocks of companies you know that if they go lower, because things get less halcyon, you are fine with it and buy more. If things go up, believe me, you will participate.

So accept the moment. Don't try for the hard money. Go for the easy kind. That's the best kind.

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer--15692051

Picture: 牡丹(peony)花開. 恨不得院子裡有一塊地是牡丹園.

-

3/3起連續10週、每週三、每次10間
回顧 #百飲壹零點滴

開啟這個系列有點興奮，
彷彿某些記憶要重新被喚醒，
不光是我，包括一同經歷的朋友們，
拍攝生澀的痕跡，都是真實的過往。

No.91-100
period.20190620-20200415

時間過得很快轉眼來到最後10間，
時常掛在嘴邊關於百飲找尋的店家，
不論品牌規格是大或小、連鎖或獨立，
只要用心經營都可能是合作的對象。

獲得的收穫可以用3組關鍵字概括：

#實踐力
分不清是因為商拍還是百飲，
我們打造了一組壓克力水箱；
又或者是為了一組流動感呈現，
弄了一下午黏稠稠的膠水；
為了符合街頭小吃的意象，
將店內座椅拉到人行道。

領悟到攝影這件事，
框內我們學習的是減法，
觀景窗外則是加法，
加法是指在畫面外做的一切努力。

#想像力
在計畫實踐前我們會先有想法，
是一切行動的源頭，
而最後10間很有意思，
我們開始以不受限的角度思考可能性，
如果食物不只是在餐桌的視角？
如果我們是消費的民眾？
如果我們與食物站在同一個維度？
如果我們將食物的特性解構？
如果食物不拘泥在人類？
如果食物拆分岀五感那又會是什麼？
許許多多的如果建構了這最後的10間。

#傳承
人要跳出自己過往的舒適圈
或是思考模式其實是不容易的，
成功模式通常會是下個階段失敗的原因。
百飲的這段過程建立了團隊，
有了一些同仁夥伴，
跟著拍攝的學習過程中也萌芽自己的想法，

人要如何跳出自己習慣的思考模式呢？
我的做法是讓身邊的人發揮，
百飲創造了一個舞台讓更多人看到我，
我希望這個舞台也可以讓別人被看見，
廚師、店面、我甚至之後的同仁們。

於是裡面有幾間比較天馬行空的表現如
山木島(93)、開蘭茶(100)都是在此基礎上，
交由公司的同仁去發揮、策劃畫面。

最終結束了1.0的100間瘋狂企劃，
認真想自己有種被掏空的感覺，
有一種不確定自己還可以拍多久的違和感，
對我來說攝影是興趣使然，
我可以體會為什麼大家會說興趣不能當飯吃，
思索這句話的本意後我有了結論，
光是有興趣是不夠的，必須要有熱情，
這個熱情不是攝影這件事所帶來，
而是攝影所造成的影響或是成就感，
看到店家有所收穫，發現同仁有成長，
就是我熱此不疲的真相吧～

謝謝大家見證了這個瘋狂的故事
我將百飲1.0的故事寫成了一本書
目前上架在嘖嘖ing
想了解更多的可以到我的帳號資訊點網址囉！

最後我們也在百飲2.0中繼續努力👍🏻
#百飲募集貳點零

#海底撈
#Mamak檔
#山木島
#三本味
#哈帕火鍋
#波波的餐桌日常
#野鴨小餐館
#荖酒館
#Believer
#開蘭茶

#尼克饗食百飲募集
#舌尖上的攝影師

🔍我的LINE @pgnick95
---
我們尋找各地風格飲食餐廳，歡迎介紹推廣有意思的優秀餐廳，我們不是在美食的世界裡，就是在前往美食的道路上！

We are constantly looking around for interesting and unique restaurants the world over.
We are on a quest to capture the taste of season, the sensation of flavour, the savor of food through the lens.
If you’re a gourmet , introduce your secret spots to us.
If you’re looking for collaborations, feel free to send us your best dish!

這個床..............😍

這兩天胖姐拿了家裡不要的保麗容
東弄西弄得不讓我們看
等我看到已經一張好像蓮花的床😅出現
(哈哈哈哈哈哈哈. 胖胖不知道床旁邊擺花的意思)
她說小精靈會感冒因為家裡沒暖氣(美國家裡都會有暖氣)
所以做了一張床給她
他還很興奮小精靈真的自己跑來睡床
所以她今早又寫了一張紙條跟精靈說記得帶回北極跟其他小精靈分享
然後*拜託*請聖誕老公公照一張照片傳給他好嗎

媽媽看完一直大笑

這孩子不止是個忠誠的聖誕精神相信者Christmas Spirit True Believer
更是相信聖誕老公公一定有iPhone12的孩子📱
哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈

對了. 真的很推薦「聖誕急救隊」這電影
今年更是除了第二集
這算說覺得非常符合美國聖誕氛圍與情境的電影
我的姪女們而看完才知道原來小精靈和聖誕老公公以及原來聖誕節會有哪些傳統的由來
跟孩子一起看這電影蠻好的

你家也有小精靈嗎？？

（糟糕、我還沒買聖誕禮物. 大家都準備什麼呢？）