🌻Docusign(DOCU), Crowdstrike(CRWD)財報結果
上週這兩家公司發表財報了.

這兩天看了一下他們的財報結果. Again, 兩家的表現都很好, 但發現分析師給DOCU的調價(往上)幅度比較多, 就好奇研究了一下SaaS公司是怎麼被估值的. 有興趣的話可以看看(從中學習到很多. 非常推薦一讀):
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/09/blog-post.html

(By the way, 分析師對CRWD的價格調幅沒那麼大, 主因是成長趨緩了. 而DOCU的free cash flow佔營收比, 以及顧客黏著力在這季創了新高, 是讓分析師按讚的幾個原因).

關於CRWD: "The Street is already modeling revenue growth deceleration in 2022 to 36%, down from 60% expected in 2021, which on its own might prove a hurdle for a stock already trading at a high multiple," said Bank of America analyst Tal Liani in a report.

分析師對於DOCU的評價:
• 11位buy; 給的價格分別是: $310, $320 (x2), $330 (x2), $340 (x2), $345, $350, $350, $389
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst continues to view them as a best in class way to play digital transformation trends with strong growth, cash flow and profitability, and a strong competitive position. Power said DocuSign remains one of his top long-term compounding growth ideas.
o Citi: While slightly shy of the double-digit billings beat in recent quarters, DocuSign still delivered a solid 8% beat to Q2 billings, which grew 47% year-over-year, Radke tells investors in a research note.
o Evercore ISI: he calls "another strong quarter." While some may have wanted to see more aggressive Q3 billings guidance, he believes estimates "continue to leave room for upside," Materne said.
o JMP Securities: While revenue growth decelerated to 50% from 58% in Q1, the company is the clear leader in electronic signature and the broader system of agreement having crossed over 1M customers with a $2B run rate this quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that he sees lots of room for growth as DocuSign targets a $50B total addressable market.
o Needham: The analyst commented, "Docusign reported another strong quarter in 2QF22 with typical DOCU upside to revenue and profitability. Sales metrics and growth decelerated Q/Q, as we expected against a massive pandemic quarter, but at a much slower rate than we believe much of the Street was anticipating. 65k net new customers was lower than the 70k - 90 range of CY20 but was still more than 2x greater than any pre-pandemic quarter, highlighting a strong end-market driving 47% billings growth against a strong comp. Commentary on incremental Agreement Cloud demand was positive, suggesting an additional growth tailwind combined with solid international can further aid 2HF22. Although DOCU shares could be lower near-term due to weak 2H OpMg guidance, we think this guidance is conservative, as the recent OM was greater than the pre-pandemic level even with tough comps."
o RBC Capital: The quarter highlighted the sustainability of the company's tailwinds post-pandemic as most of its underlying metrics such as billings and net revenue retention were solid, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that the traction with CLM and Notary was also "impressive".

分析師對於CRWD的評價:
• 12位buy; 給的價格分別是: $300, $310 (x2), $313, $315 (x2) , $305, $320, $325, $330 (x2), $340
• 1位給hold: $280 (from $220 by J.P. Morgan(same))
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst believes the company has significant room for growth with core modules, opportunities with Humio and in cloud workload security, among others, should help drive a continuation of strong growth over a long time horizon.
o BTIG: The company's "strong" Q2 results "cleared every hurdle", even though the buy-side benchmarks may have been slightly higher, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Powell adds that Crowdstrike is clearly gaining share in its core endpoint security target market at a rapid pace and gaining traction with new products across multiple categories.
o Canaccord: The analyst said the stock is down from its recent highs, and he thinks the re-rating creates a more favorable entry point for longer-oriented investors for a foundational security name. He views Crowdstrike as a long-term secular winner in security due to its native cloud platform advantage versus closely held peers in endpoint security combined with platform expansion into tangential segments to capture greater share of security budgets.
o Goldman Sachs: CrowdStrike last night delivered "another beat and raise quarter as the company benefited from another quarter of elevated demand," Essex said. But it traded lower following net new annual recurring revenue growth guidance that was slightly less than investors had hoped for. Essex, nonetheless, said the quarter demonstrated CrowdStrike's "ability to continue to go down market efficiently."
o JMP Securities: The analyst notes the company's Q2 annualized recurring revenue of $1.34B topping his estimate of $1.30B, with "sustained" 70% ARR and revenue growth along with margin upside seen as key highlights for the quarter. Suppiger adds that the metrics reflect Crowdstrike's "strong execution and robust demand environment".
o Mizuho: "very good" fiscal Q2 results. The annual recurring revenue growth of 70% year-over-year "was strong and still nicely surpassed" the Street's 65%-66% estimate, Moskowitz tells investors in a research note. He believes "strong execution can propel" Crowdstrike's stock higher.
o Piper Sandler: The company's metrics "outperformed across the board" in Q2 with 70% annual recurring revenue and revenue growth and record net new customer adds in the quarter, Owens tells investors in a research note.
o RBC Capital: Hedberg adds that CrowdStrike's record pipeline entering Q3 should continue to fuel the company's "land-and-expand" momentum.
o Stifel: Q2 results that he said "exceeded consensus estimates across all major financial metrics." He continues to believe that Crowdstrike's growth opportunity "remains in the early days" despite the company's scale given continued share capture within its core endpoint security market and incremental module adoption on the Falcon Platform, Reback tells investors.
o UBS: the company reported "pretty good" Q2 results against high expectations.

🌻趨勢: 跨境電商 Cross-border commerce
Morgan Stanley:
From our perspective, we think many are underestimating what the cross-border eCommerce demand could ultimately be, once key friction points like FX rates, tax and duties, shipping, language, etc are smoothed—all issues that Global-E directly addresses.

Cross-border ecommerce brings new, high-yield volume: We think elevated levels of cross-border ecommerce (ex-travel) is a structural shift thathas yet to be fully contemplated in MA (and V)'s long-term forecasts. MA's cross-border CNP ex-travel volume was 69% above 2019's level in 2Q and 63% higher in 1Q. Strength reflects both broader ecommerce adoption plus globalization of commerce, as marketplaces and services that reduce cross-border friction (such as those from GLBE) make international online ordering more readily adopted. Early data at V suggests greater cross-border ecommerce spend is persisting even in areas with pre-pandemic levels of international travel. Cross-border transactions also come at a higher yield, making us more optimistic that the trend can bring incremental long-term growth to the networks.

產業的潮流是有連貫性的. 疫情讓電商更發達後, 接下來應該就是加速電商跨境了. 跨境的話, 有很多問題需要解決(稅率, 語言, etc.) 這就需要有公司來做整合的動作. 這種跨境, 也可以想像是omnichannel的一種呈現.

Harley Finkelstein (President of Shopify): "I mean I think commerce in 2021 is cross-border."

🌻SPAC熱潮退卻，初創市值蒸發750億美元
"SPAC熱潮已經退卻。分析顯示，在2月中旬以前完成合併的137家SPAC的總市值已經蒸發25%，市值回落幅度上個月一度超過1,000億美元。"

"像貝萊德(BlackRock Inc., BLK)和富達投資(Fidelity Investments Inc.)這類企業管理的基金，以及許多對沖基金、養老金管理公司和其他一些投資者，都在SPAC的回落中遭受了衝擊，他們在去年年底開始的熱潮中競相投資SPAC。其中許多基金由於在價格還很低的時候就早早入場，所以現在仍坐擁可觀收益。事實上，SPAC市值仍有約2,500億美元，高於一年前的約1,000億美元，反映出這期間股價上漲和新公司上市的影響。

但即便如此，今年年初令人炫目的回報還是讓許多後來者做了接盤俠，扎堆投資所謂穩賺不賠的領域，其永恆的風險可見一斑。在過去的幾個月裡，一些投資者眼睜睜看著帳面財富縮水。"

"股價下跌會在SPAC領域形成惡性循環，因為投資者有權在併購交易前從空白支票公司撤資。一旦SPAC跌破發行價，投資者就更有可能這樣做，而許多SPAC的股價現在正處於這樣的水平。目前，在尚未宣布併購交易的空白支票公司中，超過95%的公司股價低於發行價。

投資者的大規模撤資會讓已經上市的空白支票公司手上的現金大幅減少，讓其更難實現業務目標，並可能加劇股價跌勢。"

https://on.wsj.com/3n6JznC

🌻BNPL (buy now pay later)
But most BNPL providers including Affirm, Klarna and Afterpay have been losing money despite breakneck revenue growth as they invest heavily in marketing to win share. Sweden-based Klarna’s credit losses more than doubled in the second quarter. Affirm has projected adjusted operating losses of $50m-$55m for the fiscal year that ended June 30.

The path to profitability for many of these companies was to achieve massive scale, analysts said.

https://www.ft.com/content/ca201a37-a16d-4223-b123-04d38350a972

Pictures: 一葉知秋; from EarningsWhispers

佩服那些懂得賞畫的人，佩服得五體投地。

某個時候買了一幅畫，然後等到某個時候那幅畫竟然可以升值十倍，我覺得這些懂得賞畫的人直情有特異功能。

重點不是討論畫，而是想討論一位剛賣出一副畫賺了二十多萬的前輩。只是兩年時間便賺了這麼多，當然高興得不得了，於是請了很多朋友去他的家吃飯，一邊喝好酒，一邊看好畫。

最貴那幅，掛在書房，主人家說這畫價值五十萬美金，眾人看傻了眼。

這位前輩不只懂畫，其他類型的投資更加眼光獨到。應該這樣說，他幾乎是厲害到像個預言家似的，哪個經濟板塊應該看重，哪個地區發展應該最快，等等等等，神級命中率。

很自然地，這次飯局，各人都有無數的問題，等待這位再世白龍王為眾生作出明智的決定。

「應唔應該搬去西貢？」

「富力債券買唔買？」

「呢個時候轉 buy side 好唔好？」

嘩，啲問題真係有深度到一個點。

白龍王來者不拒，有問必答。

「你，」他看到坐在我旁邊的男同事默不作聲，於是說，「冇問題要問我咩？」

「我嗰啲問題，」男同事放下那杯 dessert wine，「唔係咁容易有答案。」

「講嚟聽下，」白龍王自信一笑。

「我諗緊，去加拿大好，定留喺香港好。」

白龍王聽到後，明白地點點頭，說：「你有冇小朋友？」

「有，兩個仔。」

「未來最多機會嘅地方，肯定係香港同埋內地，咁你仲有冇必要諗？你可以送佢去外國讀書，但係最後一定係留喺呢度畀佢哋發展最好。」

其實。

所謂機會。

是什麼意思？

是要做金融、搞初創、玩貿易、律師、醫生、and so on and so on 這些，才叫做機會嗎？

是你的小朋友定義了這些東西叫做機會，還是你自把自為給小朋友定義了這些東西就是叫做機會？

是你覺得「搵唔到食」就等於沒有機會，是你覺得身家千千萬萬先叫做「光宗耀祖」，是你覺得做人要有好很多錢才叫做有尊嚴所以你才會把下一代教育到如你這個樣子。

作為長輩的，在你教育下一代之前，可否先想一想你這一套是否真的 make sense？

葉朗程覺得去旅行一定要五星級酒店三星級餐廳，就代表旅行是一定要這些東西嗎？

孭住個背囊周圍去，好多人一世都未試過，可能你聽到都唔鍾意，但可能你嘅下一代好鍾意，只不過係你用你自己嗰套所謂安全至上嘅思想侷限咗佢哋嘅未來，you know？

當然，我沒有做過別人父母。

但。

做緊人父母其實都唔識做人父母嘅例子大有人在。

我不是說這一套叫做好，那一套叫做不好。

我只是認為，無論我們認為哪一套較好，我們都要有足夠的胸襟去接受自己永遠有機會是錯的可能性。

要是你遇到你不明白的東西，你絕對有權去批評，但千萬不要試圖去抹殺其可能性。

今天跟我們一起聊天的來賓是 Freddy，他在投顧法人擔任 Sell side 單位研究員，但其實做的是 Buy side 工作，工作細節是什麼？他並非財金科系，為何能進入投資圈？法人圈有什麼有趣的八卦嗎？
另外，「因子投資」到底是什麼？市場在高點震盪時，又該如何判斷該不該進場、何時適合進場？本集財報狗 Podcast 的資訊含金量高，你沒有錯過的理由！

--

👉👉 這次的連結在留言處喔～

畢業了想當研究員，怎麼樣可以進入這個行業呢？職業投資圈可以分為兩大類，一類稱為賣方 sell side，一類叫作買方 buy side。這支影片分享阿堯當時怎麼進入投資圈，以及對這個行業的理解。

影片重點：
00:00 開場
00:15 賣方與買方的工作內容
01:26 賣方與買方的服務對象
02:48 研究員需要具備的資格與能力
04:42 阿堯的求職路與建議
06:14 從事投資工作真的是你想要的嗎

📺 訂閱頻道看更多投資影片：https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIBeH-s9UqWnWMUyqBGNqdA?sub_confirmation=1

---

關於威宇：
Facebook：http://bit.ly/fb_wylin
Instagram：https://www.instagram.com/wylin.tw/
網誌：https://wylin.tw/
財報狗：http://bit.ly/yt_statementdog
Email：iam@wylin.tw

關於阿堯：
Facebook：http://bit.ly/fb_yao
網誌：http://bit.ly/blogs_yao

付費看金錢爆完整版，請購買學習終端機(機頂盒)與在微信【仟和亿掌握財金】公眾號以微信支付付費觀看。
購買機頂盒購買請洽仟和亿官網商城

每晚八點，『楊世光在金錢爆』完整版在仟和亿機頂盒準時上架。 ​​​​

掌握金錢爆和楊世光動態，
請微博關注@金钱爆InvestorWatcher 和@金钱爆_杨世光
微信公衆號關注：杨普拉斯

今天要跟大家介紹的是，台灣的觀光旅遊產業到底出了什麼問題。

根據觀光局的數據，台灣在今年第一季觀光旅館住用率只有60.48%，跌破了2009年次貸風暴之後的低點，所以不僅台北的六福皇宮宣布要停止營業，許多觀光地區的民宿也都傳出了歇業訊息。

有一種說法是，因為陸客不來台灣了，也就是來台灣旅遊的人數減少了，所以旅館住用率才會越來越低，事實真的是如此嗎？

這就是今天的節目要告訴大家的。

2018年第一季台灣房地產趨勢報告：買賣雙方持續拉鋸
https://www.potawang.com/2018q1-taiwan-property-report-both-buy-side-and-sell-side-are-waiting/


你也可以在這些地方找到我們
加入我們的 Line ▶ http://pse.ee/5VWRW
訂閱電子報 ▶ https://goo.gl/L7Vqin
造訪我們的官網 ▶ https://www.potawang.com/
訂閱我們的影片 ▶ https://goo.gl/HzU4VG
加入《王伯達觀點福利社》▶ http://pse.ee/5PUAC
追蹤我們的 IG ▶ https://www.instagram.com/potawang/

聯絡方式：[email protected]