🌻Docusign(DOCU), Crowdstrike(CRWD)財報結果
上週這兩家公司發表財報了.

這兩天看了一下他們的財報結果. Again, 兩家的表現都很好, 但發現分析師給DOCU的調價(往上)幅度比較多, 就好奇研究了一下SaaS公司是怎麼被估值的. 有興趣的話可以看看(從中學習到很多. 非常推薦一讀):
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/09/blog-post.html

(By the way, 分析師對CRWD的價格調幅沒那麼大, 主因是成長趨緩了. 而DOCU的free cash flow佔營收比, 以及顧客黏著力在這季創了新高, 是讓分析師按讚的幾個原因).

關於CRWD: "The Street is already modeling revenue growth deceleration in 2022 to 36%, down from 60% expected in 2021, which on its own might prove a hurdle for a stock already trading at a high multiple," said Bank of America analyst Tal Liani in a report.

分析師對於DOCU的評價:
• 11位buy; 給的價格分別是: $310, $320 (x2), $330 (x2), $340 (x2), $345, $350, $350, $389
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst continues to view them as a best in class way to play digital transformation trends with strong growth, cash flow and profitability, and a strong competitive position. Power said DocuSign remains one of his top long-term compounding growth ideas.
o Citi: While slightly shy of the double-digit billings beat in recent quarters, DocuSign still delivered a solid 8% beat to Q2 billings, which grew 47% year-over-year, Radke tells investors in a research note.
o Evercore ISI: he calls "another strong quarter." While some may have wanted to see more aggressive Q3 billings guidance, he believes estimates "continue to leave room for upside," Materne said.
o JMP Securities: While revenue growth decelerated to 50% from 58% in Q1, the company is the clear leader in electronic signature and the broader system of agreement having crossed over 1M customers with a $2B run rate this quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that he sees lots of room for growth as DocuSign targets a $50B total addressable market.
o Needham: The analyst commented, "Docusign reported another strong quarter in 2QF22 with typical DOCU upside to revenue and profitability. Sales metrics and growth decelerated Q/Q, as we expected against a massive pandemic quarter, but at a much slower rate than we believe much of the Street was anticipating. 65k net new customers was lower than the 70k - 90 range of CY20 but was still more than 2x greater than any pre-pandemic quarter, highlighting a strong end-market driving 47% billings growth against a strong comp. Commentary on incremental Agreement Cloud demand was positive, suggesting an additional growth tailwind combined with solid international can further aid 2HF22. Although DOCU shares could be lower near-term due to weak 2H OpMg guidance, we think this guidance is conservative, as the recent OM was greater than the pre-pandemic level even with tough comps."
o RBC Capital: The quarter highlighted the sustainability of the company's tailwinds post-pandemic as most of its underlying metrics such as billings and net revenue retention were solid, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that the traction with CLM and Notary was also "impressive".

分析師對於CRWD的評價:
• 12位buy; 給的價格分別是: $300, $310 (x2), $313, $315 (x2) , $305, $320, $325, $330 (x2), $340
• 1位給hold: $280 (from $220 by J.P. Morgan(same))
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst believes the company has significant room for growth with core modules, opportunities with Humio and in cloud workload security, among others, should help drive a continuation of strong growth over a long time horizon.
o BTIG: The company's "strong" Q2 results "cleared every hurdle", even though the buy-side benchmarks may have been slightly higher, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Powell adds that Crowdstrike is clearly gaining share in its core endpoint security target market at a rapid pace and gaining traction with new products across multiple categories.
o Canaccord: The analyst said the stock is down from its recent highs, and he thinks the re-rating creates a more favorable entry point for longer-oriented investors for a foundational security name. He views Crowdstrike as a long-term secular winner in security due to its native cloud platform advantage versus closely held peers in endpoint security combined with platform expansion into tangential segments to capture greater share of security budgets.
o Goldman Sachs: CrowdStrike last night delivered "another beat and raise quarter as the company benefited from another quarter of elevated demand," Essex said. But it traded lower following net new annual recurring revenue growth guidance that was slightly less than investors had hoped for. Essex, nonetheless, said the quarter demonstrated CrowdStrike's "ability to continue to go down market efficiently."
o JMP Securities: The analyst notes the company's Q2 annualized recurring revenue of $1.34B topping his estimate of $1.30B, with "sustained" 70% ARR and revenue growth along with margin upside seen as key highlights for the quarter. Suppiger adds that the metrics reflect Crowdstrike's "strong execution and robust demand environment".
o Mizuho: "very good" fiscal Q2 results. The annual recurring revenue growth of 70% year-over-year "was strong and still nicely surpassed" the Street's 65%-66% estimate, Moskowitz tells investors in a research note. He believes "strong execution can propel" Crowdstrike's stock higher.
o Piper Sandler: The company's metrics "outperformed across the board" in Q2 with 70% annual recurring revenue and revenue growth and record net new customer adds in the quarter, Owens tells investors in a research note.
o RBC Capital: Hedberg adds that CrowdStrike's record pipeline entering Q3 should continue to fuel the company's "land-and-expand" momentum.
o Stifel: Q2 results that he said "exceeded consensus estimates across all major financial metrics." He continues to believe that Crowdstrike's growth opportunity "remains in the early days" despite the company's scale given continued share capture within its core endpoint security market and incremental module adoption on the Falcon Platform, Reback tells investors.
o UBS: the company reported "pretty good" Q2 results against high expectations.

🌻趨勢: 跨境電商 Cross-border commerce
Morgan Stanley:
From our perspective, we think many are underestimating what the cross-border eCommerce demand could ultimately be, once key friction points like FX rates, tax and duties, shipping, language, etc are smoothed—all issues that Global-E directly addresses.

Cross-border ecommerce brings new, high-yield volume: We think elevated levels of cross-border ecommerce (ex-travel) is a structural shift thathas yet to be fully contemplated in MA (and V)'s long-term forecasts. MA's cross-border CNP ex-travel volume was 69% above 2019's level in 2Q and 63% higher in 1Q. Strength reflects both broader ecommerce adoption plus globalization of commerce, as marketplaces and services that reduce cross-border friction (such as those from GLBE) make international online ordering more readily adopted. Early data at V suggests greater cross-border ecommerce spend is persisting even in areas with pre-pandemic levels of international travel. Cross-border transactions also come at a higher yield, making us more optimistic that the trend can bring incremental long-term growth to the networks.

產業的潮流是有連貫性的. 疫情讓電商更發達後, 接下來應該就是加速電商跨境了. 跨境的話, 有很多問題需要解決(稅率, 語言, etc.) 這就需要有公司來做整合的動作. 這種跨境, 也可以想像是omnichannel的一種呈現.

Harley Finkelstein (President of Shopify): "I mean I think commerce in 2021 is cross-border."

🌻SPAC熱潮退卻，初創市值蒸發750億美元
"SPAC熱潮已經退卻。分析顯示，在2月中旬以前完成合併的137家SPAC的總市值已經蒸發25%，市值回落幅度上個月一度超過1,000億美元。"

"像貝萊德(BlackRock Inc., BLK)和富達投資(Fidelity Investments Inc.)這類企業管理的基金，以及許多對沖基金、養老金管理公司和其他一些投資者，都在SPAC的回落中遭受了衝擊，他們在去年年底開始的熱潮中競相投資SPAC。其中許多基金由於在價格還很低的時候就早早入場，所以現在仍坐擁可觀收益。事實上，SPAC市值仍有約2,500億美元，高於一年前的約1,000億美元，反映出這期間股價上漲和新公司上市的影響。

但即便如此，今年年初令人炫目的回報還是讓許多後來者做了接盤俠，扎堆投資所謂穩賺不賠的領域，其永恆的風險可見一斑。在過去的幾個月裡，一些投資者眼睜睜看著帳面財富縮水。"

"股價下跌會在SPAC領域形成惡性循環，因為投資者有權在併購交易前從空白支票公司撤資。一旦SPAC跌破發行價，投資者就更有可能這樣做，而許多SPAC的股價現在正處於這樣的水平。目前，在尚未宣布併購交易的空白支票公司中，超過95%的公司股價低於發行價。

投資者的大規模撤資會讓已經上市的空白支票公司手上的現金大幅減少，讓其更難實現業務目標，並可能加劇股價跌勢。"

https://on.wsj.com/3n6JznC

🌻BNPL (buy now pay later)
But most BNPL providers including Affirm, Klarna and Afterpay have been losing money despite breakneck revenue growth as they invest heavily in marketing to win share. Sweden-based Klarna’s credit losses more than doubled in the second quarter. Affirm has projected adjusted operating losses of $50m-$55m for the fiscal year that ended June 30.

The path to profitability for many of these companies was to achieve massive scale, analysts said.

https://www.ft.com/content/ca201a37-a16d-4223-b123-04d38350a972

Pictures: 一葉知秋; from EarningsWhispers

【請蘇院長突破紓困盲腸吧！】

提到現金紓困，英國政治學家邱吉爾有一句名言說：「#錢是肥料，廣施才有效」。

去年新冠疫情肆虐全球，許多遭受病毒吞噬的國家，不僅國人失去生命，人民失業攀升，經濟重創百姓生活痛苦，她們都以廣發現金紓困來因應，像美國連續兩年各發每人現金支票1200~1400美元(約3.6至4萬元)，香港每位成人可獲1萬港幣（約台幣3.8萬元），日本10萬日圓（約台幣2.8萬元），新加坡600新幣（約台幣1.2萬元），英國、澳洲、加拿大也都採發送國人現金的「救急」手段，因為各國的執政者都明瞭：「錢是肥料，廣施才有效」，唯有快速有效的廣施，人民才能維持日常開銷，繼續活下去，防止百工百業斷鏈倒閉，造成連鎖效應。

反觀行政院這一次緊急通過「紓困4.0方案」，蘇貞昌講得很動聽，說要以「開倉濟眾」的態度，從優、從寬、從速處理，但是紓困方案只補助特定對象，而且處處設限，刀刀劃下門檻，面對疫情來勢洶洶，卻又延續著去年方案，毫無對症下藥，難怪得不到人民掌聲，反而網路聲量表達怒火中燒、民怨四起、。

因為蘇貞昌所說的「開倉濟眾」，夠資格領取現金的對象只有730萬人次，也就是佔全國2350萬人口的31%，換句話說，全國還有69%人民無法領取現金，蘇貞昌不是說「疫情來得又急又快」，卻又「一刀切」認為僅僅只有三成的國人受到疫情影響，這表示國內還有1620萬人民面對疫情經濟生活一如往常，並不需要獲得任何補助或協助，但是根據網路媒體的統計，今年六月受到疫情影響的人暴增到65.5%，相信以後影響的人民會更多，並不是您 蘇院長，在台北有冷氣的辦公室所看到的數字，蘇院長的「開倉濟眾」怎麼和民眾期待落差如此大，也和先進國家「舉世皆然」的紓困廣發現金背道而馳？！

「#發現金不是讓每個人變有錢，#是讓活不下去的人活下去」，請蘇院長突破這紓困盲腸，回應世界各國普發現金的態度，支持國民黨將在臨時會所提出「每人普發1萬元現金」的決議，現金紓困不是「紓困歧視」，不要製造發放的階級與門檻，讓此刻面對疫情焦躁不安影響經濟生活的絕大多數國人有政府做靠山，幫幫急迫需要的廣大國人度過難關。

畢竟台灣在新冠疫情的下半場，蘇貞昌在防疫工作已得不到掌聲了，但是在現金紓困方面，就請全民統一發紓困現金吧！

#認同請分享
#全民普發萬元現金

疫情延燒至今國內確診數已經破萬
百工百業受疫情重創
餐飲業、百貨零售業、安親班、健身房、觀光業、藝文業...等
所有經濟活動幾乎都停擺 #人民苦不堪言
在擔心染疫的同時 更怕的是可能連工作都沒了!
真的不知往後日子該怎麼過下去
人民急需政府的幫忙 而紓困方案應是 #救急不救窮
我們應該學習美日等先進國家作法
#立刻普發1萬元現金
不僅可以省掉行政程序
也不會有群聚的危險
更不會累翻基層公務人員
這是 #最公平 #最快速 #最安全 的做法!
請行政院長蘇貞昌不要再擋，趕快救命！
老百姓已經快活不下去，沒有疫苗、沒有工作
不知道明天在哪裡！

各國現金紓困方式:
👉美國去年與今年各發放每人紓困現金支票1200~1400美元(約3.6至4萬元)；
👉日本每人發放每位國民及有居留權的外國人10萬日圓(約2.8萬元)；
👉南韓每戶請領金額1人家庭為40萬韓元（約1萬元），2人家庭為60萬韓元（約1.5萬元），
3人家庭為80萬韓元（約2萬元），4人家口則為100萬韓元（約2.5萬元）；
👉新加坡成人發放2.1萬元；香港成人發放3.9萬元

#紓困應是救急不救窮
#立即普發一萬元現金