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並前往https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/3085442/challenging-probability-problem-amc-12b-problem-18-are-the-aops-solutions-in

Challenging probability problem (AMC 12B Problem 18)

I searched the problem on AoPS, and found this thread from 2016. The solution by Zimbalono there (post #13) is worth looking at as well.

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