🌻另一個Zoom會議(第二次貼......有補上一些內容)
繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).
主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算基礎的估值會議)
主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment　(此為小揚的粉絲頁)
參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.
時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間９點.
預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問
進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)

🌻Morgan Stanley Mid-year Investor Outlook: A tricky transition

https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/midyear-2021-global-markets-outlook

🌻在您投資生涯中, 有沒有一些觀念讓您受用很多?
下面這位投資名人的好觀念影響我很深. 他的意思是, 一般投資人, 只要能説出三個買一家公司的理由, 就很夠了. 這也迫使我, 每次在買股票時, 問自己對這家公司的了解有多少. 也會去衡量公司的優點與缺點在哪裡.

"It is vital (重要的) that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks."

全文在此:
Jim Cramer: In Times Like This, Go for the Easy Money
Look at the stocks you own. Can you tell me why you've got them? If you can't answer the following three questions, then have a look at several I like right now.

We've endured the meme stock craziness, with all of its love for heavily shorted stocks. We have watched the collapse of bitcoin to levels viewed as shocking, even if they are still more than double where they were not that long ago. We've dealt with Fed officials making it clear that they are no longer on the side of the bulls or the bears. They are on the side of job growth, but are wary of inflation. We've seen the end of the rush to get vaccines, which means that millions of people are going to get the new COVID variant, because there is no natural immunity to it. We've watched as the hopes for an infrastructure bill have collapsed. We've endured shortages of everything from chips to plastic to imported goods and labor.

And we're still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Yep, we are in one of those halcyon moments, where the masks are off -- even if they shouldn't be -- and Americans are back doing what they do best: consume, spend, go out to eat and then consume and spend some more.

There are times in the stock market where the collective mindset is revealed. This is one of those times: Things are cool, it's not a big moment, there's no real news for a bit, it's the historically strong period and we can reach some conclusions about where we are.

When things are like this, it is important to remember that buyers like to revert to tried-and-true companies that thrive no matter what. These are companies that have an edge and are better at what they do than other companies.

You know that I am a great believer in index funds, that the average person doesn't have the time or the inclination to research individual stocks. It's a difficult barrier. I think you need to make time to read the quarterly report and listen to the conference call, to Google articles and, if possible, get some research about the companies you own. It is vital that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks. I am reminded by this, because, once again, without a mask, I can be recognized and if I am not holding "Nvidia the Second," I can carry on a conversation.

I have had many in the last two weeks and when I have asked this litany of questions, I find myself at a loss as to why almost no one knew what they owned. But they thirsted for individual stocks, because they, like me, think things are better post pandemic. No, that's not a facetious comment. Many, many stocks did better with a stay-at-home economy. A huge number.

So what do I do? I revert to what others do when you are stumped about how to stay in touch with stocks, but want to do less homework. That means buying stocks that are accessible, not stocks like Unity (U) or Snowflake (SNOW) or Twilio (TWLO) or Okta (OKTA) .

I revert to normal businesses people know and I suggest they Google some articles, peruse the conference call, but, above all, like the company's products so you can buy more if it goes down.

Here's some that I have been telling people I like:

First is Ford (F) . I think the Ford lineup is amazing. The electric F-150 series will be incredible. I am eager to get a Maverick for my family, because it is a smaller pickup that will get the job done for the myriad little things I need to do with this farm I bought from that crazy bitcoin foray. I like the competitive edge of the CEO, who says he is going to bury Elon Musk when the Lightning comes out. I even think the Bronco is cool as all get out. Most important, though? I think the chip shortage is ending. My semiconductor friends are telling me the foundries are producing more feature-rich chips and that means Ford can pump out the trucks small business people love and need. Plus, the used car prices at last have plateaued, according to their most important pricing index. Halcyon times.

Second, Costco (COST) : The samples are coming back. Tell me you don't love the samples. You need things in bulk. You want low prices. You want to get all of the things that people don't think of with Costco, like insurance, hearing-aids -- hey, they are a fortune -- jewelry, things around the house. You go and you will buy far more than you first came for. My kind of store.

The kids love this American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) , which we just bought for my charitable trust, which you can follow along by joining the Action Alerts PLUS club. Jay Schottenstein, the CEO, came on "Mad Money" recently and it's clear that his Aerie model has real staying power: 26 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. No flash in the pan, that one. Number one brand in jeans for the 15 to 25 year old group. The best in the mall. How did I know this? I see the credit card bills.

I got up this morning to do my physical therapy. I have been doing it ever since I hurt my back in February. I have this really cool pair of sneakers that fit me perfectly and I love them, but I am fortunate enough to have a vacation house and I am always taking those shoes with me.

So I went on Amazon (AMZN) this morning and lo and behold I saw them for half price. I bought two pairs. Then I went over everything I have bought in the last year and got a bunch of those things. Then I bought a pair of binoculars, because mine were stolen. I paid half price.

Yep, Amazon's universal. I was talking to Alexa, while I was ordering, getting some new music on, asking questions. I saw that despite all of the Sturm und Drang of Amazon being late with things, all the delivery dates were within range. I didn't click on any ads, and I didn't need the speed of Web Services, but the whole thing reminded me about how special the darned company is. I don't care if it's ahead or behind plan for the moment. I would just buy some more when it goes down.

Finally, Apple (AAPL) . I think people who don't own Apple should look what they are holding at this very moment. Yes, right now. Or look at what's in your lap or on the table besides your fork. And then think about the bill you paid last night without knowing it. Think about what you bought in the App store yesterday. Think about what would happen if it would break or get stolen or, left in the Uber (UBER) , or heaven forbid, be dropped into the pool or in the, yes, toilet.

There, that's what you buy in halcyon times. Stocks of companies you know that if they go lower, because things get less halcyon, you are fine with it and buy more. If things go up, believe me, you will participate.

So accept the moment. Don't try for the hard money. Go for the easy kind. That's the best kind.

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer--15692051

Picture: 牡丹(peony)花開. 恨不得院子裡有一塊地是牡丹園.

🌻各投行的top picks for 2021 (會持續更新)
收集了一些投行挑選的2021標的個股. 供參. 建議可看一下投行的挑股原因.
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/01/top-picks-for-2021.html

🌻Why Do Fund Flows (資金流向) Matter?
Broadly, fund flows are a window into investor behavior and are often considered an indicator of investor sentiment. Inflows may suggest that investors are optimistic about potential future returns while outflows suggest that investors are more wary.
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1014854/what-are-fund-flows-and-why-do-they-matter

🌻[關於類股輪動] 2020 Market Performance by Morningstar
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/01/2020-market-performance-by-morningstar.html

🌻最近在看的書: Covid-19: The Great Reset
這是世界經濟論壇執行董事長克勞斯·史瓦布 (Klaus Schwab)與經濟學家Thierry Malleret一起寫的書, 從經濟, 社會, 地緣政治, 環境, 科技的角度, 來看Covid-19對人類世界造成了甚麼影響以及產生了甚麼樣的各種大小趨勢.

看這本書的時候心情一點都不輕鬆. 不過很高興能夠透過這本書, 對自己以及未來有個省思. 希望未來透過了疫情這個大reset(重啟), 能夠越來越好.

這本書應該沒有中文版本. 有興趣的讀者可能需要直接從Amazon訂購:
https://www.amazon.com/COVID-19-Great-Reset-Klaus-Schwab/dp/2940631123/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=the+great+reset&qid=1610584255&sr=8-1

🌻最近入手的新書: The Promised Land (by Barack Obama)
一直很欣賞Mr. Obama的領袖魅力, 所以這本書是一定得入手的.
這本書也有中文版本了:
應許之地：歐巴馬回憶錄https://www.books.com.tw/products/0010874691?sloc=main

Pictures:
From Amazon.
第三圖的意思是, 世界上發生的各種事情, 其實都是有關連性&相互影響的. 來源: 世界經濟論壇Global Risk Report: http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risk_Report_2020.pdf

《The Times》社論，仲乜抄杜生理論呀？
（真正XX經濟圈國際版嘅真係奧義。）

"China has earned our distrust — but we still need to engage"
「雖然佢地贏咗自地嘅不信任，但係唔代表唔同佢玩，不過要識點玩。」

社論主題都係技安法，同意千古罪人嘅評論。不過就偷咗抄杜生嘅理論，XX經濟圈國際版實務外交玩法奧義就講到最後喇，不過當然無杜生咁坦白啦，不過意思都係差唔多，英國佬好多understaement唔會講明嘅...

//However, while China is doing nothing to win friends and influence people, we should be wary of shooting ourselves in the foot by putting up too many barriers. Many British firms need China’s market and our universities require Chinese students. China will do what is in its own interests. We should do the same.//
（嗱係佢地搞到（國際關係）咁爛，乜都唔做去贏返啲國際朋友同圖民，係咎由自取攞黎衰㗎喎。既然佢地擺明自私，只係照顧自己利益攞著數，點解英國公司唔繼續賺佢地嘅錢，佢地啲學生唔通唔黎進貢學費幫手送錢比我地啲大學呀？佢識剩係攞著數，點解我地唔照板煮碗呀？自封財路有錢唔賺，咁同開槍射自己腳趾有咩分別？）

剩係差咗杜生最後嗰句，「賺佢嘅錢，然後繼續XX佢，有咩問題呀？」

#杜生語錄國際斯文版
#除咗呔原來都係爛仔

原文：
《Th Times》Leading Article
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/china-has-earned-our-distrust-but-we-still-need-to-engage-vvh8zml9q

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