今天, 應該是最炫最酷的一家公司, Robinhood, 上市的一天. 它獲利了嗎? 我想沒有多少投資人會care. 最關心的, 應該是它的營收成長率, 還有股價.

在我們一直追逐科技成長股, 被他們的高營收成長率, 潛在的高報酬昏眩的時候, 會不會忘記他們醜得要命的財務報表?

而在今年, 大家追逐的這些趨勢股表現不佳的時候, 是不是也給了我們一些省思?

其實美股中, 還有很多財務報表漂亮, 但聽起來一點也不有趣(甚至很無聊)的公司, 但他們股價穩定, 長期下來, 也給了投資人很大的回報. 像之前介紹過的POOL, 過去幾年也是平均一年翻一倍的漲幅.

而在IPO中, 也有這類的好公司.

Carrier Global(CARR), 2020年4月上市的IPO, 算是工業類股, 漲了快5倍. 有在獲利. (開利冷氣應該有聽過?就是這家公司)

Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO), 民生消費股, 也有獲利, 2020年10月上市的IPO, 目前也漲了3倍.

下面這篇文章挺好. 與大家分享. 就像文章作者所提的, 龜兔賽跑, 穩(漲)的烏龜, 不一定會輸.

也祝福大家找到&培養自己的能力圈, 穩穩獲利.

Jim Cramer: The Biggest Thing That Happened Thursday Was the Boring Stuff

No, it wasn't Robinhood or the mega-cap tech companies, it was names we depend on like Carrier Global.
By JIM CRAMER Jul 29, 2021 | 03:38 PM EDT

Stocks quotes in this article: HOOD, FB, PYPL, CARR, RTX, NUE, AGCO, ZM, ALGN, AAPL, EBAY, AMD, XLNX

One of the most glorious things I have seen involving the stock market in ages happened today.

Was it Vlad Tenev ringing the opening bell for his breakthrough, disruptive Robinhood (HOOD) , representing 22 million mostly young new investors? Was it the free-for-all decline in the stock of the "F" in FAANG, Facebook (FB) ? Or the clobbering that Paypal (PYPL) took after what looked to be a good quarter?

Nah. I was bumping into Dave Gitlin, CEO of Carrier Global (CARR) , and his charming daughter, a college student at the University of Wisconsin. They were calmly waiting for me to finish "Squawk on the Street" to say, "Hi," and I couldn't be more thrilled. Because unlike the much ballyhooed Robinhood deal, which seems like a bust, Carrier Global came public back in April 2020 at $12 and today, after tremendous earnings, not sales, but earnings, it made an all-time high at $53, after reporting a terrific number with tremendous HVAC sales, up 31%, and an earnings surprise of 55 cents vs. the 30 cents that Wall Street was expecting.

Carrier, which was spun off when United Technologies merged with Raytheon (RTX) had some tailwinds, like the need to have clean air inside, because of the pandemic and clear air outside because office buildings are responsible for 40% of carbon emissions. But the huge upside surprise and the gigantic buyback belonged to Dave and his team and I that's what I told his daughter. I made sure she knew how proud she should be about how this man made so much money for people. Twelve to 53 in 15 months time is the name of the game.

Look, I am not trying to take away from anything that Robinhood and its co-founder and CEO Vlad Tenev have created. Far from it. They have created billions for themselves and are now letting people participate in their great sales growth. You got a chance to pay a fortune per share and many Robinhoodies did, as tons of stock was allocated to the 22 million people who joined Robinhood, because of a bang up app that every young person seems to know.

I am simply saying that HVAC, yep heating, ventilation and air conditioning is one of the most boring businesses on earth and at times like today, with all of the hoopla of Robinhood it is easy to forget is how lots of money can be made being boring, and I like that. The most exciting thing that happened this year is Carrier helped provide refrigeration for vaccines. That's just fine with me.

Unlike Robinhood, Carrier hasn't brought anyone into the stock market. It's more laser-like focus on air conditioning once spun off from Raytheon means nothing to people. Just Wall Street gibberish. But you have probably walked by a Carrier machine thousands of times and never thought anything of it. Yet, you could have bought it for a song at six times earnings instead of 25 times sales.

The Carriers, with CEOs who pay themselves lavishly but perhaps not excessively, or the Nucor's (NUE) the steel company that's also well managed and sells at six times earnings, represent valuable properties, especially when the U.S. government is about to agree on a trillion dollar infrastructure bill and the country has more than 6% GDP. We don't know why they are re-opening trades or closing trades, delta-variant trades or building and bridge investments. Forgive me, though for comparing the company of Robinhood, with something that may stay special for a while vs. companies that get described as venerable, solid and built to last.

These companies are not rarities. You know people have to eat, right? You know that there would be famine without farming. So why not buy the stock of Agco (AGCO) , No. 2 farm equipment, which went from $40 to $130 in a year and a half without ever being expensive. Combines too boring? Again fine with me. Now that the masks are off -- or at least in some places, although Zoom (ZM) is still crushing it -- I, like many others, including my daughter, didn't like how her teeth looked even as, to me, they were perfect. Dentists tell you to get Align (ALGN) . I wanted them on "Mad Money" but the show was just too darned jammed. The stock's up the most in the S&P 500, with a product that, again, like the Purloined Letter, is right in front of you.

I love tech. Created the term FANG, added the "A" when it was clear that Apple (AAPL) had to take the acronymic stage between another "A" and an "N." I am proud that those who bet against me on Twitter, the legion, are betting against FAANG. I wrote obituaries for a goodly time in my career as a reporter but I never wrote as many as have been penned to talk about the group has already made the ultimate measure on behalf of shareholders.

Oh and it's not like I don't like tech or fin tech. I felt the slings and arrows of Facebook and PayPal today. Facebook's management once again lowered the boom on its future talking about real deceleration in growth. I thought it was too dire. PayPal's Dan Schulman talked about how the separation with its former partner, eBay (EBAY) gets done now and earnings will be hurt. This was one of the least revelatory surprises ever. I think both are practicing UPOD, Underpromising to Overdeliver, and, sure this time might be different, but it's sure been the way they have handled it in the past.

Far better to be in the straight out blow outs like Advance Micro (AMD) which had still one more banner day, this time because the company it is buying, the dowdy Xilinx (XLNX) , a sleepy semiconductor company, had tremendous earnings. The two together could be unassailable and even as AMD is now richly valued it is deservingly so.

I can't wait to hear Vlad Tenev's reflection on Robinhood's debut as a public company and about the novel offering that gave millions of shares to his clients. Vlad's not so much a rags to riches American story. He's a poor Bulgarian to insanely rich American because of his on ingenuity. That's a story with celebrating in itself.

I am simply pointing out that unlike Vlad, whom you would have had invested with when you weren't allowed or able to, Dave Gitlin sure didn't keep you out of the better bet, the stock of HVAC king Carrier.

You did.

[157681] 24481. 航海王：男人的執念 貝拉密最後的突擊！"One Piece" The Man's Pride! Bellamy's Last Charge! (2015)★
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【歐盟修改對外報告的外交風波】

歐盟這兩天發表一份針對COVID-19疫情的報告，報告重點原本是針對疫情中各國的不實資訊（disinformation），但卻傳出歐盟最終版本中有關批評中國的部分文字被軟化，包括病毒來自中國武漢等相關文字到最後都被拿掉。根據英國金融時報報導，面對外界質疑，歐盟官方想當然耳不願承認有「向中國磕頭」的事實，只強調版本的修改屬於正常的編輯程序，歐盟確實投入了「特別的關注」（particular attention）以確保報告中的修辭無可挑惕（unassailable）。

這個外交風波坦白說對疫情的影響不大，全世界都曉得中國外交系統到處滅火，這早已不是新聞，但長期來看更值得台灣關注的是，中國的戰狼外交風格最終是否將遭到反撲？這件事有何外交重要性？

有兩個面向可以觀察。

首先，這份報告來自歐盟對外事務部（EU External Action Service, EEAS），EEAS事實上就是歐盟的涉外單位或是外交單位。在最終報告出爐之前，中國外交部的歐洲司司長王魯彤向歐盟駐中國大使Nicholas Chapuis表達抗議，並說如果這份報告指控中國有不實資訊的情事，中國將會反擊歐洲，就如同中國先前反擊美國的做法。

歐盟是一個跨國國際組織，EEAS的外交立場某個程度上必須與各會員國的外交立場產生程度不一的衝突或矛盾。在英國脫歐之後，歐盟最重要的會員國當然就是德國與法國。所以我們要觀察的是，歐盟與中國的外交關係為何？德法等重要會員國與中國的關係又為何？

先來看看歐盟與中國的關係。歐盟是中國最大貿易夥伴，中國則是歐盟第二大（僅次於美國）貿易夥伴。客觀來說，中國與歐盟的雙邊關係非常複雜，中國的一帶一路政策在歐洲（尤其是東歐）影響深遠。至於德國及法國更不用說，這兩國迄今仍維持明確的「一中政策」。前陣子德國官員在記者會上不願提到台灣捐贈口罩的畫面，許多台灣人看了非常憤怒，但這其實也反映出德國在外交上對於中國議題相當謹慎。

EEAS對於這份報告的修改，坦白說屬於其內部權限，外人無從置喙。歐盟原本就是一個政治利益錯綜復雜的政治實體，在這波武漢肺炎疫情中，各國政府各顯神通搶奪醫療物資，中國作為世界工廠，擁有豐沛的物資生產能量。所以歐洲各國政府自然會避免惹惱中國，更別說中國大舉輸出（包括捐贈及出口）醫療物資給包括歐洲在內等各國。這些現實考量，歐盟執委會內部官員不可能不清楚。

另外一個有趣的分析面向是中國的戰狼式外交。以筆者自身的外交經歷來看，外交通常爭取的是友誼，避免衝突，遇到爭議時儘量以外交手腕化解並達到雙方都能下臺階的方式。但中國的駐外系統顯然採取一個非典型的外交方式，在對外交涉時常常呈現無禮傲慢姿態。前陣子法國外交部長Jean-Yves Le Drian召見中國駐法大使盧沙野抗議大外宣是一例，而美國威斯康辛州參議長Roger Roth怒斥中國外交官致函討拍為nuts（瘋子）又是另一例。這些案例給外界的啟示是：中國駐外官員的傲慢心態及粗糙手段已在全世界造成反彈。

類似中國外交系統施壓歐盟修改報告的案例，往後還會陸續出現，拉長縱深來看，這是中國在這場全球肺炎疫情中爭奪敘事主導權的必要動作，也牽涉到未來與疫情相關的國際法與各國國內法訴訟的結果。別忘了，目前已有許多國家針對此疫情向中國提出鉅額求償。疫情的敘事方向，未來都有可能影響各國法院的判決。以此觀之，中國以政治力強力介入歐盟報告，也就不足為奇了。

本文原載胖犬於NOWnews 今日新聞 名家論壇：

https://www.nownews.com/news/20200428/4058393/?fbclid=IwAR2BVNgkX-j63YKNSawIX_qtpdw2Xvr3ay-3fNbn1xfDz126E0dzvlGkFKg