🌻另一個Zoom會議(第二次貼......有補上一些內容)
繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).
主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算基礎的估值會議)
主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment　(此為小揚的粉絲頁)
參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.
時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間９點.
預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問
進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)

🌻Morgan Stanley Mid-year Investor Outlook: A tricky transition

https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/midyear-2021-global-markets-outlook

🌻在您投資生涯中, 有沒有一些觀念讓您受用很多?
下面這位投資名人的好觀念影響我很深. 他的意思是, 一般投資人, 只要能説出三個買一家公司的理由, 就很夠了. 這也迫使我, 每次在買股票時, 問自己對這家公司的了解有多少. 也會去衡量公司的優點與缺點在哪裡.

"It is vital (重要的) that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks."

全文在此:
Jim Cramer: In Times Like This, Go for the Easy Money
Look at the stocks you own. Can you tell me why you've got them? If you can't answer the following three questions, then have a look at several I like right now.

We've endured the meme stock craziness, with all of its love for heavily shorted stocks. We have watched the collapse of bitcoin to levels viewed as shocking, even if they are still more than double where they were not that long ago. We've dealt with Fed officials making it clear that they are no longer on the side of the bulls or the bears. They are on the side of job growth, but are wary of inflation. We've seen the end of the rush to get vaccines, which means that millions of people are going to get the new COVID variant, because there is no natural immunity to it. We've watched as the hopes for an infrastructure bill have collapsed. We've endured shortages of everything from chips to plastic to imported goods and labor.

And we're still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Yep, we are in one of those halcyon moments, where the masks are off -- even if they shouldn't be -- and Americans are back doing what they do best: consume, spend, go out to eat and then consume and spend some more.

There are times in the stock market where the collective mindset is revealed. This is one of those times: Things are cool, it's not a big moment, there's no real news for a bit, it's the historically strong period and we can reach some conclusions about where we are.

When things are like this, it is important to remember that buyers like to revert to tried-and-true companies that thrive no matter what. These are companies that have an edge and are better at what they do than other companies.

You know that I am a great believer in index funds, that the average person doesn't have the time or the inclination to research individual stocks. It's a difficult barrier. I think you need to make time to read the quarterly report and listen to the conference call, to Google articles and, if possible, get some research about the companies you own. It is vital that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks. I am reminded by this, because, once again, without a mask, I can be recognized and if I am not holding "Nvidia the Second," I can carry on a conversation.

I have had many in the last two weeks and when I have asked this litany of questions, I find myself at a loss as to why almost no one knew what they owned. But they thirsted for individual stocks, because they, like me, think things are better post pandemic. No, that's not a facetious comment. Many, many stocks did better with a stay-at-home economy. A huge number.

So what do I do? I revert to what others do when you are stumped about how to stay in touch with stocks, but want to do less homework. That means buying stocks that are accessible, not stocks like Unity (U) or Snowflake (SNOW) or Twilio (TWLO) or Okta (OKTA) .

I revert to normal businesses people know and I suggest they Google some articles, peruse the conference call, but, above all, like the company's products so you can buy more if it goes down.

Here's some that I have been telling people I like:

First is Ford (F) . I think the Ford lineup is amazing. The electric F-150 series will be incredible. I am eager to get a Maverick for my family, because it is a smaller pickup that will get the job done for the myriad little things I need to do with this farm I bought from that crazy bitcoin foray. I like the competitive edge of the CEO, who says he is going to bury Elon Musk when the Lightning comes out. I even think the Bronco is cool as all get out. Most important, though? I think the chip shortage is ending. My semiconductor friends are telling me the foundries are producing more feature-rich chips and that means Ford can pump out the trucks small business people love and need. Plus, the used car prices at last have plateaued, according to their most important pricing index. Halcyon times.

Second, Costco (COST) : The samples are coming back. Tell me you don't love the samples. You need things in bulk. You want low prices. You want to get all of the things that people don't think of with Costco, like insurance, hearing-aids -- hey, they are a fortune -- jewelry, things around the house. You go and you will buy far more than you first came for. My kind of store.

The kids love this American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) , which we just bought for my charitable trust, which you can follow along by joining the Action Alerts PLUS club. Jay Schottenstein, the CEO, came on "Mad Money" recently and it's clear that his Aerie model has real staying power: 26 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. No flash in the pan, that one. Number one brand in jeans for the 15 to 25 year old group. The best in the mall. How did I know this? I see the credit card bills.

I got up this morning to do my physical therapy. I have been doing it ever since I hurt my back in February. I have this really cool pair of sneakers that fit me perfectly and I love them, but I am fortunate enough to have a vacation house and I am always taking those shoes with me.

So I went on Amazon (AMZN) this morning and lo and behold I saw them for half price. I bought two pairs. Then I went over everything I have bought in the last year and got a bunch of those things. Then I bought a pair of binoculars, because mine were stolen. I paid half price.

Yep, Amazon's universal. I was talking to Alexa, while I was ordering, getting some new music on, asking questions. I saw that despite all of the Sturm und Drang of Amazon being late with things, all the delivery dates were within range. I didn't click on any ads, and I didn't need the speed of Web Services, but the whole thing reminded me about how special the darned company is. I don't care if it's ahead or behind plan for the moment. I would just buy some more when it goes down.

Finally, Apple (AAPL) . I think people who don't own Apple should look what they are holding at this very moment. Yes, right now. Or look at what's in your lap or on the table besides your fork. And then think about the bill you paid last night without knowing it. Think about what you bought in the App store yesterday. Think about what would happen if it would break or get stolen or, left in the Uber (UBER) , or heaven forbid, be dropped into the pool or in the, yes, toilet.

There, that's what you buy in halcyon times. Stocks of companies you know that if they go lower, because things get less halcyon, you are fine with it and buy more. If things go up, believe me, you will participate.

So accept the moment. Don't try for the hard money. Go for the easy kind. That's the best kind.

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer--15692051

Picture: 牡丹(peony)花開. 恨不得院子裡有一塊地是牡丹園.

昨天美國公布的零售銷售數字大幅優於市場預期
前值-0.7% 預期1.2% 實際5.3%
也顯示之前發錢有效
確實拉動的消費
昨天分享的文章中也有提到後續效應
油價在目前也已經突破每桶61.8美元

在數據公布後，美股的反應是先跌後漲
跌的主要原因是反應因為經濟太好，聯準會是否有可能比預期而有提早緊縮的念頭

而尾盤拉升的主要也是聯準會會議紀要仍維持寬鬆導向
在會議紀要中提到超低利率與購債在可見的未來仍是必須的
基本上在經濟未完全確認復甦的情況下
大家不用太早擔心政策準向
因為聯準會也不會希望之前的努力付之一炬

道瓊工業指數在昨天創下歷史新高，上漲90點，漲幅0.29%
S&P500與納斯達克指數則小跌0.03%與0.58%
道瓊工業指數中表現最好的是巴菲特買入的Verizon(VZ)與Chevron(CVX)
主要上漲的板塊仍為能源、旅遊、生技照護

而財報比較受到關注的
包括之前我介紹過的Twilio(TWLO)
昨天提交了優於預期的財報數字
更是突破了公司自己的獲利預期

在Q4，Twilio營收達5.5億美元，比去年同期成長65%
之前公司預期營收介於4.5-4.55億美元之間
非GAAP每股盈餘為0.04，也優於原本預期虧損0.08-0.11美元的數字
全年營收年成長55%
淨擴張率維持在137%
超過221000位活躍用戶帳戶(去年同期為179000)

讓公司股價在盤後大漲11%，今年以來上漲36%
在訪問中Twilio CFO提到強勁的營運表現
是因為客戶對於信息服務需求的增加
加上之前選舉與近期併購Segment(客戶數據分析軟體公司)
未來在教育、健康照護與電商領域仍看到強勁的需求
下一季營收預期在5.26-5.36億美元，年成長46-47%

另一家則是大麻股的Tilray(TLRY)
昨天公布優於預期的財報，股價盤後上漲10%

營收達5660萬美元 ，優於市場預期的5600萬，年成長20.5%
淨虧損290萬美元，每股虧損0.02美元
也大幅低於原本預計虧損0.14美元的數字

公司休閒用途的大麻營收年成長49%
加拿大醫用大麻營收年成長26%，國際市場醫用大麻營收年成長191%
與Aphria(APHA)的合併預計在第二季完成
未來除了規模外，在成本、品牌與分銷渠道上都將更有優勢

近期有許多人認為WSB又在炒作大麻股
造成大麻類股的股價波動很大
不過要再造GME的盛況很難
主要還是該回到公司的基本面
來評估是否該長期持有手上的公司

由財報來看公司的營運確實在成長軌道上
加上政策利多的加持
短期或許仍有上漲空間

最後則是百度(BIDU)的財報
營收大致符合預期，不過獲利是優於市場預期的
盤後上漲3.14%
總營收達46.4億美元，年成長5%
非GAAP每股盈餘3.08美元，年減24%

主要核心業務營收成長6%
來自於愛奇藝的收益則下滑1%
AI解決方案營收年成長67%，也是市場目前最為關注的一塊
包括雲服務、自動駕駛與智慧城市的發展趨勢
公司自認更有優勢比其他人更快抓到機會
也確實，擁有數據愈多愈可以優化與創造更多機會
這也是百度在近期股價高速上漲的原因

提供給大家參考

這篇貼文內容是我在2/6週六晚上在Clubhouse首度開設房間，探討「SaaS企業收入結構」的Speech部分摘要 (我在會議開始前列的筆記)。

在舉辦之前，我為這個房間所設立的目標就是在Clubhouse上面拋磚引玉，用自己的分析釣出更多其他厲害從業人士的分析。所以花了非常多時間準備很多關於本次主題的議題，也很開心能夠收穫超級多不同講者的分享和不同意見的討論。

到最後從新創公司估值模型的探討到SaaS商業模式變現指標到雲端運算大廠到的競合，整整兩小時沒有一秒鐘是可以放鬆聽的閒聊，每一句話都是滿滿的乾貨精華。老實說這是我自己參加的房間當中最多專有名詞和內容深度的一場，全得感謝那天晚上上台分享的厲害講者們，第一次開房間就是超長時間燒腦的探討，彷彿在開學術交流大會😂即便筋疲力竭但也非常開心！！

以下內容po出來是為了讓沒能參與到、或希望回顧討論內容的讀者們；僅限於我本人觀點，為保護講者在Clubhouse上暢所欲言的隱私性、與我寫出來又二次傳播時可能因我個人理解上與講者本意有歧義，故以下內容並不包含講者說法。錯過的讀者朋友們也不用擔心，之後我在Clubhouse也會陸續邀請這些講者們再次與我們交流分享，Just stay tuned & follow me on Clubhouse😜 @kopuchat

當然以下有些內容是我為了節省時間方便說明粗略使用並不是最完美的指標(比如以下用PE來做舉例只是為了更加直觀了然)大家加減看就好哈哈，有時間我會再把它寫成更深入的文章
-------------
首先，SaaS公司是什麼？Software-as-a-Service；不是把軟體安裝在你的電腦上，而是在雲端上、用網頁瀏覽器做登入。這個產業當中的知名服務包括CRM系統Salesforce、信件發送系統Mailchimp、人資系統Bamboo，或是去年底才剛進入一億美金獨角獸俱樂部的三家：Udemy for Business、Expensify和UserTesting。

然而為什麼一家SaaS公司值錢？首先我們來給「值錢」這件事情下一個定義：

一般傳統美股公司的本益比/市盈率PE Ratio, Stock Price/Earning per share, 股價/每股盈餘差不多是20；比如說Intel本益比是11、3M本益比是19、Oracle本益比19。

讓我們來簡單算一下，假設我年營收是 1000 萬美金、淨利大概10%左右也就是100萬美金，所以市值等於淨利乘上本益比，也就是100*20 = 2000萬美金；也就是你營收 1000 萬美金的公司、有 2000 萬美金的市值，市值大概是營收的兩倍。

但你可以看到營收1000萬美金的SaaS公司很多就直接估值1億美金，也就是營收的10倍，甚至是估值20倍、30倍的也有；或像Clubhouse這様連變現機制都還沒有做的服務，估值就已經10億美金。

這邊我要介紹一間公司叫Salesforce，它是 Oracle 的高級副總裁跳出去創辦的雲端 CRM 系統，是目前全球最大的CRM系統商，也早在2004年就上市了，大家猜它的本益比是多少？現在它的本益比是64（市值約莫是營收 10 倍）。

好，既然我們給SaaS公司比其他人值錢的這個概念下了一個量化的指標，也就是市值可以是其他類型商業模式的好幾倍，接下來讓我們來問：SaaS公司值錢的原因？它的服務模式跟其他商業模式的區別是什麼？

這邊我直接告訴大家答案：讓 SaaS 服務有別於一般服務的區別是，它基本上是以訂閱制作為商業模式。而SaaS公司的收入可以分為三種類型：
A) New Business 創造新業務
B) Renewals 針對既有業務維持留存率
C) Upsell 將既有客戶的訂閱金額擴大

我們來想一下，一般軟體、或是一般實體產品的供應商像汽車或飲料，是怎麼銷售的？傳統上其實是一性的賣斷服務，像Oracle之前就是賣斷制的 CRM 系統。然而 SaaS 的服務則是用訂閱制、也就是按年付費租用的形式；舉例來說，假設我一個 CRM 跟 Oracle 買斷花 40 萬美金，然而跟 Salesforce 則是每年 10 萬美金的方式在做訂閱。（數字非真實僅舉例用）

乍看之下，按年付費租用服務和一次性賣斷的服務，看似只是報價方式的區別，實際上這是一個核心上完全不一樣的商業模式，包括服務模式、銷售模式、公司估值等多層面向上都有著翻轉的影響。

以賣斷制的企業而言，讓我們來做一個非常簡單的假設：

公司業務只有固定10人，每一業務一年內可接觸的客戶量有限。賣斷制的話，由於每一年的成單轉換率或是大市場環境都有變動，所以在收入上可能第一年是1000張單、第二年900張單、第三年1300張單...

你可以發現如果我把這個營收畫成一張逐年的趨勢圖的話，會變成一個高高低低的圖表，也就是公司營收會仰賴整個市場上的業績情況跟市場風向，沒有辦法看到整個公司的整體性。

但如果是SaaS訂閱模式，它其實是把售價改成年化的方式來讓客戶分期付款，因此同一家公司同樣人數的業務人員，每年一樣逐年簽入新客戶，如果他們都有續約的話，客戶總數將會成為複利的方式在成長。

用一個更直觀的假設舉例：就算在沒有任何業績成長的前提下，每年收入一樣都是固定1000張單、續約率是90%，公司總收入會在第三年就翻2.7倍、五年翻4倍、十年就翻6.5倍。但新創公司怎麼可能新業績0成長？常見每年20~30%甚至是60%~70%成長的情況下，你就知道這樣收入成長數字會有多可怕了！

所以我們這邊可以得到一個結論：SaaS公司的本質是什麼？

【SaaS的本質就是續費】這邊再給大家一個數字參考，如果我們轉而假設這家 SaaS 公司的每年續約率只有50%，十年後的總營收就會變成只有十年前的 2 倍。以創投的角度而言，相當於這個公司就沒有任何投資價值。

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總而言之，為何訂閱制能成為潮流？對客戶與廠商雙方而言，我們都可以總結兩大環境因素：

*客戶方
1. 軟體產業變化太快，同一套軟體工具很快就過時、買斷不划算
2. 客戶大多數無法確定自己的需求，訂閱制較低廉的初始金額可以大幅降低簽約門檻

*廠商方
1. 把波動劇烈的銷售金額拉成好看的成長曲線
2.跟客戶有更密切合作與維繫長期關係的機會，創造Upsell空間

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事實上，我也並不是要說賣單位制商品的商業模式就不賺錢或不值得投資。雖然商品的每年銷量都會根據市場情況波動，但如果市場畫出來的餅夠大一樣非常有前景，比如每年光靠總體市場成長而就能享有20~30%收入成長的公司也非常多。比如你也可以發現Tesla現在不搞訂閱制度只賣車、不用靠訂閱的客戶數去疊成長，光靠市場就能持續成長。

這種商業模式需要仰賴兩大成長：

1.市場本體的成長
2.銷售通路拓張的成長 (銷售通路要可以覆蓋到足夠多的區域才能銷售量)

但當市場成長如果停滯的時候呢？你就可以注意到企業可能會透過推出訂閱制來維持成長。最明顯的例子是Microsoft，目前它的Office系列在企業端已停售賣斷制並停止更新，改成訂閱制加送雲端空間lol
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再次謝謝參與討論的讀者們，我下一次討論一樣會開在週末 (天啊過年期間好折磨大家)

目前有幾個主題在考慮：「Agora (WebRTS) V.S. Twilio (VoIP)或是「Google在上一年Q4的財務報表分析」或是「全球新興社交App創新與前景」應該都會陸續開房間閒聊，只是要先開哪一個而已。也會同樣在我自己做完功課後產出sharings再拋磚引玉。也歡迎大家有其他想要聊的主題也歡迎留言提供意見給我參考😉