🌻另一個Zoom會議(第二次貼......有補上一些內容)
繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).
主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算基礎的估值會議)
主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment　(此為小揚的粉絲頁)
參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.
時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間９點.
預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問
進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)

🌻Morgan Stanley Mid-year Investor Outlook: A tricky transition

https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/midyear-2021-global-markets-outlook

🌻在您投資生涯中, 有沒有一些觀念讓您受用很多?
下面這位投資名人的好觀念影響我很深. 他的意思是, 一般投資人, 只要能説出三個買一家公司的理由, 就很夠了. 這也迫使我, 每次在買股票時, 問自己對這家公司的了解有多少. 也會去衡量公司的優點與缺點在哪裡.

"It is vital (重要的) that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks."

全文在此:
Jim Cramer: In Times Like This, Go for the Easy Money
Look at the stocks you own. Can you tell me why you've got them? If you can't answer the following three questions, then have a look at several I like right now.

We've endured the meme stock craziness, with all of its love for heavily shorted stocks. We have watched the collapse of bitcoin to levels viewed as shocking, even if they are still more than double where they were not that long ago. We've dealt with Fed officials making it clear that they are no longer on the side of the bulls or the bears. They are on the side of job growth, but are wary of inflation. We've seen the end of the rush to get vaccines, which means that millions of people are going to get the new COVID variant, because there is no natural immunity to it. We've watched as the hopes for an infrastructure bill have collapsed. We've endured shortages of everything from chips to plastic to imported goods and labor.

And we're still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Yep, we are in one of those halcyon moments, where the masks are off -- even if they shouldn't be -- and Americans are back doing what they do best: consume, spend, go out to eat and then consume and spend some more.

There are times in the stock market where the collective mindset is revealed. This is one of those times: Things are cool, it's not a big moment, there's no real news for a bit, it's the historically strong period and we can reach some conclusions about where we are.

When things are like this, it is important to remember that buyers like to revert to tried-and-true companies that thrive no matter what. These are companies that have an edge and are better at what they do than other companies.

You know that I am a great believer in index funds, that the average person doesn't have the time or the inclination to research individual stocks. It's a difficult barrier. I think you need to make time to read the quarterly report and listen to the conference call, to Google articles and, if possible, get some research about the companies you own. It is vital that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks. I am reminded by this, because, once again, without a mask, I can be recognized and if I am not holding "Nvidia the Second," I can carry on a conversation.

I have had many in the last two weeks and when I have asked this litany of questions, I find myself at a loss as to why almost no one knew what they owned. But they thirsted for individual stocks, because they, like me, think things are better post pandemic. No, that's not a facetious comment. Many, many stocks did better with a stay-at-home economy. A huge number.

So what do I do? I revert to what others do when you are stumped about how to stay in touch with stocks, but want to do less homework. That means buying stocks that are accessible, not stocks like Unity (U) or Snowflake (SNOW) or Twilio (TWLO) or Okta (OKTA) .

I revert to normal businesses people know and I suggest they Google some articles, peruse the conference call, but, above all, like the company's products so you can buy more if it goes down.

Here's some that I have been telling people I like:

First is Ford (F) . I think the Ford lineup is amazing. The electric F-150 series will be incredible. I am eager to get a Maverick for my family, because it is a smaller pickup that will get the job done for the myriad little things I need to do with this farm I bought from that crazy bitcoin foray. I like the competitive edge of the CEO, who says he is going to bury Elon Musk when the Lightning comes out. I even think the Bronco is cool as all get out. Most important, though? I think the chip shortage is ending. My semiconductor friends are telling me the foundries are producing more feature-rich chips and that means Ford can pump out the trucks small business people love and need. Plus, the used car prices at last have plateaued, according to their most important pricing index. Halcyon times.

Second, Costco (COST) : The samples are coming back. Tell me you don't love the samples. You need things in bulk. You want low prices. You want to get all of the things that people don't think of with Costco, like insurance, hearing-aids -- hey, they are a fortune -- jewelry, things around the house. You go and you will buy far more than you first came for. My kind of store.

The kids love this American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) , which we just bought for my charitable trust, which you can follow along by joining the Action Alerts PLUS club. Jay Schottenstein, the CEO, came on "Mad Money" recently and it's clear that his Aerie model has real staying power: 26 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. No flash in the pan, that one. Number one brand in jeans for the 15 to 25 year old group. The best in the mall. How did I know this? I see the credit card bills.

I got up this morning to do my physical therapy. I have been doing it ever since I hurt my back in February. I have this really cool pair of sneakers that fit me perfectly and I love them, but I am fortunate enough to have a vacation house and I am always taking those shoes with me.

So I went on Amazon (AMZN) this morning and lo and behold I saw them for half price. I bought two pairs. Then I went over everything I have bought in the last year and got a bunch of those things. Then I bought a pair of binoculars, because mine were stolen. I paid half price.

Yep, Amazon's universal. I was talking to Alexa, while I was ordering, getting some new music on, asking questions. I saw that despite all of the Sturm und Drang of Amazon being late with things, all the delivery dates were within range. I didn't click on any ads, and I didn't need the speed of Web Services, but the whole thing reminded me about how special the darned company is. I don't care if it's ahead or behind plan for the moment. I would just buy some more when it goes down.

Finally, Apple (AAPL) . I think people who don't own Apple should look what they are holding at this very moment. Yes, right now. Or look at what's in your lap or on the table besides your fork. And then think about the bill you paid last night without knowing it. Think about what you bought in the App store yesterday. Think about what would happen if it would break or get stolen or, left in the Uber (UBER) , or heaven forbid, be dropped into the pool or in the, yes, toilet.

There, that's what you buy in halcyon times. Stocks of companies you know that if they go lower, because things get less halcyon, you are fine with it and buy more. If things go up, believe me, you will participate.

So accept the moment. Don't try for the hard money. Go for the easy kind. That's the best kind.

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer--15692051

Picture: 牡丹(peony)花開. 恨不得院子裡有一塊地是牡丹園.

今天介紹這個片語：smoking gun

smoking gun (冒煙的槍) 意思是「犯罪的鐵證，明確的罪證」。
這個片語來自於一個情景：「聽到槍聲後，看到有人被殺害了，而旁邊一位感覺很可疑的人，手上正好拿著一把剛擊發完還在冒煙的槍」。

比方：
A federal judge in San Francisco says there's no smoking gun proof that Uber used files stolen from Google's self-driving car project Waymo.
舊金山的一位聯邦法官表示，沒有明確的證據能夠證明Uber使用了從Google的Waymo自駕車專案偷取的檔案。

黃智賢： 台灣當然是中國國土

最近台獨團體在各大媒體刊登廣告，用各種低級謊言，扭曲開羅宣言，波茨坦公告，謊稱台灣不屬於中國，說台灣沒有光復，只有軍事佔領！
這些陳年謊言，也是台獨洗腦台灣人的基礎。
所以，讓我們再看一次歷史。

1
1895年，清朝政府在甲午戰敗後，被迫簽訂割地賠款的馬關條約。
賠款，是賠付二億兩庫平銀，分期還要付利息。
割地，是割讓遼東半島，和台灣與澎湖。
但俄、德、法因為不願日本獨吞遼東，所以三國干涉。
中國於是用3000萬兩白銀，把遼東半島贖回。
大清被迫割讓台灣，不止台人悲憤。
國人憤慨，所以有公車上書。
所以孫文推翻滿清，割台也是一大動力。
可憐被日本欺淩的，是大清。
條約簽訂者，是大清帝國與大日本帝國。
但大清，當然就是中國。
這2億3000萬兩賠款，是當年日本年度財政收入的四倍以上。

2
1943年，中美英三國領袖，蔣介石，羅斯福，邱吉爾舉行開羅會議，會後發表開羅宣言(Cairo Declaration)，意在對日本招降，而俄國史大林事後也追認。
關於台灣，宣言使用的文字是“日本從中國所竊取的所有領土，如滿洲和台灣澎湖，應歸還中華民國。"
（and that all the territories Japan has stolen from the Chinese, such as Manchuria, Formosa, and the Pescadores, shall be restored to the Republic of China.）
從中國竊取的，要歸還中華民國，表明在國際法上，中華民國繼承大清。

3
1945年7月26日，日本已是強弩之末。由中國蔣介石，美國杜魯門，英國邱吉爾，俄國史大林聯名發表波茨坦公告（Proclamation Defining Terms for Japanese Surrender
Issued, at Potsdam）。
這是同盟國對日本的最後公告，有不容懷疑的效力。
其中回顧中美英三國共同戰勝日本的決心，使用的中國名稱，是Republic of China。因為當時而言，China當然就是Republic of China。
更重要的是，第八條重申，開羅宣言的條件，必將實施。（The terms of the Cairo Declaration shall be carried out .）
所以，開羅宣言的國際法效力，已經由波茨坦公告100%的完成了。

4
1945年8月14日，日本宣佈接受波茨坦公告。8月15日“昭和天皇”發表“終戰詔書”，宣佈日本接受同盟國的要求，無條件投降。
9月2日，在密蘇里號上，日本簽署了“降伏文書”。
"終戰詔書"的對內版本文字是“朕已飭令帝國政府通告美英中蘇四國，願接受其聯合公告”。
這裡出現的中，就是中國。而這個公告，就是波茨坦公告。
所以，日本接受波茨坦公告，波茨坦公告重申了開羅宣言，開羅宣言則要求日本歸還從中國竊取的領土，特別是滿洲和台灣澎湖。
還要怎麼躲閃台灣是歸還給中國的事實呢？

5
1952年的舊金山和約，是要處理日本戰後地位，以美國為首，大部分二戰的日本交戰國參與，跟日本簽署的和約。
其中第二條，日本聲明放棄對台灣、澎湖等島嶼。
台灣主權未定論者，最喜歡拿這件事說嘴，說日本放棄台灣，可沒有說要還給中國。
問題是，於國際法，台灣早已完成交還給中國的一切條件了。
之所以中國沒有參與舊金山和約，是因為當時國共內戰後，中華人民共和國已成立，但聯合國和美國仍然承認蔣介石的中華民國代表中國。
所以，台灣還給中國，是鐵板釘釘的事。
搞清楚，事實上，並沒有”台灣地位未定論”這回事。
有的，只是”誰才代表中國”這件事，當時國際沒有定論。
而聯合國當時的中國席位，是由中華民國代表。
中華民國治理的領土，只有台澎金馬。
如果台灣不是歸還給中國，這怎麼可能發生？

6
直到1971年，聯合國通過2758號決議文，中華人民共和國取代中華民國在聯合國席位。
1979年，美國與中華民國斷交。與中華人民共和國建交的基礎，是建交三公報裡的“台灣與大陸屬於中國，世上只有一個中國，中華人民共和國代表整個中國”這些前提。
不管是大清帝國，中華民國，還是中華人民共和國，都是中國。


台獨當然還會說什麼，開羅宣言和波茨坦宣言不是正式條約，沒有效力。
這當然連駁斥都不值得。
因為，日本投降的降伏文書，都承認了。
昭和天皇的"終戰詔書"，都承認了。
還要怎樣個承認法？
如果讓日本帝國投降的前提波茨坦公告，還不叫有效力。
那將讓國際法學者無語，因為反智已達人類無法企及的巔峰。

7
台獨真要和約證明？
行！
台獨跪舔仰望的日本，就親自簽了條約，打臉台獨。
日本曾跟兩岸政府，各自在不同時間簽訂了和平條約。
條約上都明白表示，日本歸還台灣給中國。

8
1952 年 4月 28日，日本與在台北的中華民國政府簽訂的《中日和約》，第四條：
"茲承認中國與日本國間在中華民國三十年即公曆一千九百四十一年十二月九日以前所締結之一切條約、專約及協定，均因戰爭結果而歸無效。"
意思是，雙方宣佈包括《馬關條約》在內的不平等條約，完全無效。
日本再次承認，台灣歸還中國。

當然，台獨又要賴啦，說日本片面作廢了那個和約。
問題是，日本在幾十年後片面作廢，能夠推翻前幾十年與在台灣的中華民國來往嗎？
你不承認台灣屬於中國，還能跟台灣的中華民國官方來往？

9
1972年 9月 29日，中日發表聯合聲明，其中"中華人民共和國政府重申：台灣是中華人民共和國領土不可分割的一部分。日本國政府充分理解和尊重中國政府的這一立場，並堅持遵循波茨坦公告第八條的立場。"
所以日本在中日和約上，自己再次承認了，台灣歸還中國，屬於中國。

10
歷史上的事實，可沒有那麼容易抹去。
哪管你是多麼台獨腦殘，多麼想要欺祖背宗！
台灣就是中國國土。
台灣人，就是中國人。

（感謝美國加州灣區愛國僑胞，募款刊登於11月5日世界日報 ）