【一些關於AR6的心得】
關於IPCC最新出版的報告，正確來說他不是AR6，只是其中一部份(共有三個主軸與工作小組)，看來看去還是紐約時報的內容寫得比較準確，也沒有太多煽動性的詞彙，剛好又有中文版本，所以推薦大家閱讀紐時所撰寫的內容，畢竟他們不向台灣媒體只能事後翻譯翻譯外電或是別人的新聞稿... 紐時也是IPCC報告長期的核稿成員。
https://cn.nytimes.com/science/20210810/climate-change-report-ipcc-un/

很高興台灣學術單位也在第一時間就有回應，也公布台灣相關數據，大家有興趣可以參考「臺灣氣候變遷推估資訊與調適知識平台計畫」(TCCIP)所公布的「IPCC氣候變遷第六次評估報告之科學重點摘錄與臺灣氣候變遷評析更新報告」，完全推薦大家直接閱讀
https://tccip.ncdr.nat.gov.tw/km_abstract_one.aspx?kid=20210810134743#Pic4

上述內容為部分研究成果的重點節錄，但應該足夠一般大眾閱讀，TCCIP會在取得IPCC相關模型網格數據後，進行再分析製作台灣自己的氣候變遷科學報告，上一次出版是2017。
https://tccip.ncdr.nat.gov.tw/publish_01_one.aspx?bid=20171220135820

從AR6目前的研究當中看不太出台灣所受到的影響，因為他們的模型網格對於台灣來說太大了。而從TCCIP的資料中可以看到，台灣目前相較於過去氣候呈現
🔴氣溫已經上升1.6℃
🔴降雨強度增加
🔴夏季增長、冬季減短的趨勢

而未來可能出現
🔴世紀末前氣溫持續上升最多至4℃
🔴年降雨量增加、但降雨日數減少(降雨更集中)
🔴冬天快不見
🔴颱風減少、強颱變多

至於上面結果對台灣(人)而言或好或壞？並無法從這次的科學報告中得出答案，因為這次發布的僅是氣候變遷的科學，僅是AR6的一部份，整體衝擊或是應對方法都需要等待明年度完整報告出爐~

而這次AR6 WGI其實在科學現象解析的部分與上一次IPCC發布的1.5℃特別報告沒有差太多，其釋出的訊息主要為，基於更好的研究方法以及過去幾年發現的證據，我們可以幾乎(very likely)確定目前氣候變遷是人為因素所致，而我們的氣溫、海洋、降雨、冰融的變化都與人為氣候變遷強相關。#若要抑制這樣的變化，#世紀中達成淨零碳排是必經之路

有些人把他炒作的很悲觀啦，但我不這樣認為，本次報告對於氣候變遷科學家來說其實都會覺得很開心，因為有一大堆的不確定性被排除，氣候敏感度的範圍也縮小(排碳多少造成氣溫上升多少)，許多理論與關係也都成為共識，這有助於之後氣候相關研究發展。同樣的，對於一般人來說，本次報告也排除了一些最悲觀的狀況，例如海平面不會上升6公尺，最暖的情境大概就是1-2公尺的幅度(但還是很可怕啦)。

而本次報告中也改採SSP(Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)而非RCP(典型濃度路徑)來模擬未來氣候狀況，有助於氣候模型更貼近人類真實生活狀況，相關的減緩路徑解析也都依賴此模型才能建立(明年報告)。企業若要導入TCFD(氣候財務風險揭漏)，以此為依據也更為貼切。對了... 不要以為報告中所使用的SSP5-8.5模型是溫室氣體濃度最高的模型就覺得我們要避免這個情境，其實不然，因為在這個模型中人類活的超級好，每個人都活得像擁有豐富石油資源的杜拜人。

最後引用這份紐時中專家學者評論：「不是說我們可以劃出一條明確的界線，如果變暖保持在1.5度，我們就安全，如果上升到2或3度的話，一切都完了，”幫助撰寫這份報告的羅格斯大學(Rutgers University)氣候科學家羅伯特·柯普(Robert Kopp)說。 “但變暖每額外增加一點，都會增加風險。」#站在減緩風險的角度來看淨零碳排是我們的努力方向

▼有興趣了解更多可參考
■決策者摘要https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf
■完整AR6WG1報告
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report.pdf
■互動專區(可直接滑地圖資訊)
https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/
■推薦學生或相關從業者都看
https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-report-on-climate-science

圖片取自: IPCC

今早為Asian Medical Students Association Hong Kong (AMSAHK)的新一屆執行委員會就職典禮作致詞分享嘉賓，題目為「疫情中的健康不公平」。
感謝他們的熱情款待以及為整段致詞拍了影片。以下我附上致詞的英文原稿：

It's been my honor to be invited to give the closing remarks for the Inauguration Ceremony for the incoming executive committee of the Asian Medical Students' Association Hong Kong (AMSAHK) this morning. A video has been taken for the remarks I made regarding health inequalities during the COVID-19 pandemic (big thanks to the student who withstood the soreness of her arm for holding the camera up for 15 minutes straight), and here's the transcript of the main body of the speech that goes with this video:

//The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, continues to be rampant around the world since early 2020, resulting in more than 55 million cases and 1.3 million deaths worldwide as of today. (So no! It’s not a hoax for those conspiracy theorists out there!) A higher rate of incidence and deaths, as well as worse health-related quality of life have been widely observed in the socially disadvantaged groups, including people of lower socioeconomic position, older persons, migrants, ethnic minority and communities of color, etc. While epidemiologists and scientists around the world are dedicated in gathering scientific evidence on the specific causes and determinants of the health inequalities observed in different countries and regions, we can apply the Social Determinants of Health Conceptual Framework developed by the World Health Organization team led by the eminent Prof Sir Michael Marmot, world’s leading social epidemiologist, to understand and delineate these social determinants of health inequalities related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to this framework, social determinants of health can be largely categorized into two types – 1) the lower stream, intermediary determinants, and 2) the upper stream, structural and macro-environmental determinants. For the COVID-19 pandemic, we realized that the lower stream factors may include material circumstances, such as people’s living and working conditions. For instance, the nature of the occupations of these people of lower socioeconomic position tends to require them to travel outside to work, i.e., they cannot work from home, which is a luxury for people who can afford to do it. This lack of choice in the location of occupation may expose them to greater risk of infection through more transportation and interactions with strangers. We have also seen infection clusters among crowded places like elderly homes, public housing estates, and boarding houses for foreign domestic helpers. Moreover, these socially disadvantaged people tend to have lower financial and social capital – it can be observed that they were more likely to be deprived of personal protective equipment like face masks and hand sanitizers, especially during the earlier days of the pandemic. On the other hand, the upper stream, structural determinants of health may include policies related to public health, education, macroeconomics, social protection and welfare, as well as our governance… and last, but not least, our culture and values. If the socioeconomic and political contexts are not favorable to the socially disadvantaged, their health and well-being will be disproportionately affected by the pandemic. Therefore, if we, as a society, espouse to address and reduce the problem of health inequalities, social determinants of health cannot be overlooked in devising and designing any public health-related strategies, measures and policies.

Although a higher rate of incidence and deaths have been widely observed in the socially disadvantaged groups, especially in countries with severe COVID-19 outbreaks, this phenomenon seems to be less discussed and less covered by media in Hong Kong, where the disease incidence is relatively low when compared with other countries around the world. Before the resurgence of local cases in early July, local spread of COVID-19 was sporadic and most cases were imported. In the earlier days of the pandemic, most cases were primarily imported by travelers and return-students studying overseas, leading to a minor surge between mid-March and mid-April of 874 new cases. Most of these cases during Spring were people who could afford to travel and study abroad, and thus tended to be more well-off. Therefore, some would say the expected social gradient in health impact did not seem to exist in Hong Kong, but may I remind you that, it is only the case when we focus on COVID-19-specific incidence and mortality alone. But can we really deduce from this that COVID-19-related health inequality does not exist in Hong Kong? According to the Social Determinants of Health Framework mentioned earlier, the obvious answer is “No, of course not.” And here’s why…

In addition to the direct disease burden, the COVID-19 outbreak and its associated containment measures (such as economic lockdown, mandatory social distancing, and change of work arrangements) could have unequal wider socioeconomic impacts on the general population, especially in regions with pervasive existing social inequalities. Given the limited resources and capacity of the socioeconomically disadvantaged to respond to emergency and adverse events, their general health and well-being are likely to be unduly and inordinately affected by the abrupt changes in their daily economic and social conditions, like job loss and insecurity, brought about by the COVID-19 outbreak and the corresponding containment and mitigation measures of which the main purpose was supposedly disease prevention and health protection at the first place. As such, focusing only on COVID-19 incidence or mortality as the outcomes of concern to address health inequalities may leave out important aspects of life that contributes significantly to people’s health. Recently, my research team and I collaborated with Sir Michael Marmot in a Hong Kong study, and found that the poor people in Hong Kong fared worse in every aspects of life than their richer counterparts in terms of economic activity, personal protective equipment, personal hygiene practice, as well as well-being and health after the COVID-19 outbreak. We also found that part of the observed health inequality can be attributed to the pandemic and its related containment measures via people’s concerns over their own and their families’ livelihood and economic activity. In other words, health inequalities were contributed by the pandemic even in a city where incidence is relatively low through other social determinants of health that directly concerned the livelihood and economic activity of the people. So in this study, we confirmed that focusing only on the incident and death cases as the outcomes of concern to address health inequalities is like a story half-told, and would severely truncate and distort the reality.

Truth be told, health inequality does not only appear after the pandemic outbreak of COVID-19, it is a pre-existing condition in countries and regions around the world, including Hong Kong. My research over the years have consistently shown that people in lower socioeconomic position tend to have worse physical and mental health status. Nevertheless, precisely because health inequality is nothing new, there are always voices in our society trying to dismiss the problem, arguing that it is only natural to have wealth inequality in any capitalistic society. However, in reckoning with health inequalities, we need to go beyond just figuring out the disparities or differences in health status between the poor and the rich, and we need to raise an ethically relevant question: are these inequalities, disparities and differences remediable? Can they be fixed? Can we do something about them? If they are remediable, and we can do something about them but we haven’t, then we’d say these inequalities are ultimately unjust and unfair. In other words, a society that prides itself in pursuing justice must, and I say must, strive to address and reduce these unfair health inequalities. Borrowing the words from famed sociologist Judith Butler, “the virus alone does not discriminate,” but “social and economic inequality will make sure that it does.” With COVID-19, we learn that it is not only the individuals who are sick, but our society. And it’s time we do something about it.

Thank you very much!//

Please join me in congratulating the incoming executive committee of AMSAHK and giving them the best wishes for their future endeavor!

Roger Chung, PhD
Assistant Professor, CUHK JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, @CUHK Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 香港中文大學 - CUHK
Associate Director, CUHK Institute of Health Equity

購買實體專輯：
已完售，感謝大家的支持！

Follow Xiangyu on Twitter https://instagram.com/notXiangyu
Follow Ransom-Notes on Twitter https://twitter.com/ransom1992

0:00　星星之火　A Single Spark
2:52　延續和決裂　Continuity and Rupture
6:02　流言蜚語　Rumors and Slanders
8:56　夢　Dream
11:26　這不是請客吃飯　This Is Not a Dinner Party
14:50　社會主義還是人類滅絕　Socialism or Human Extinction

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/album/5LXDWD9UWMinJpuGXfOHF9
Apple Music: https://music.apple.com/album/1475720641
KKBox: https://www.kkbox.com/tw/tc/album/Po-XjuEwvaj3s0F3XnGK009H-index.html
虾米音乐： https://www.xiami.com/album/5021315036

專輯介紹： https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E5%98%BB%E5%93%88%E5%8F%8D%E5%B8%9D%E5%9C%8B-%E9%8D%BE%E7%BF%94%E5%AE%87%E8%AA%AA%E5%94%B1%E6%98%9F%E6%98%9F%E4%B9%8B%E7%81%AB-063724380.html

繼 2018 年金音獎入圍的《炮打司令部》後，中文嘻哈界絕無僅有的共產主義饒舌歌手鍾翔宇與英國製作人 Ransom-Notes 馬不停蹄地聯手炮製出六首歌的新專輯《星星之火》，相較於上張專輯還有如〈保力達B〉、〈偶像的手冊〉等比較詼諧幽默的歌曲，這張專輯顯得更加嚴肅而深入的闡述自己的意識形態。

即使如此，這張專輯並沒有流於自我重複的說教，而是透過自己在美國成長過程親眼目睹的（台灣媒體跟好萊塢電影不告訴你的）具體事實，鍾翔宇戳破所謂的「美國夢」，一層一層爬梳嘻哈音樂如何失去最初的反抗精神、分析爭取勞動權益的困境甚至環保議題。很難想像這麼龐大的知識量被鍾翔宇精巧的放在一張不到 20 分鐘的專輯當中，這樣大膽的嘗試絕對值得你靜下心搭配歌詞細細玩味。搭配 Ransom-Notes 充滿黃金年代風格的編曲，讓嚴肅的歌詞不再難以下嚥。而鍾翔宇精心設計的多韻和不時的好笑 punchline，也展現他想讓歌曲直面普羅大眾的誠意。

批判美國的霸權和當今的社會經濟制度等於動搖了非常多人的基本信念，鍾翔宇也深知這一點。然而看到不公不義的事實而站出來發聲，這是讓鍾翔宇之所以愛上嘻哈的浪漫初衷。《星星之火》這張專輯就如同他的偶像，英國嘻哈詩人 Lowkey 的 “Soundtrack to the Struggle” 一樣，是貨真價實的革命之聲，所有真心想衝破世界當今所面對的困境的人，肯定能從鍾翔宇的音樂中得到啟發。


Shortly after his 2018 album "Bombard the Headquarters" was nominated best hip hop album by the Golden Indie Music Awards, Xiangyu, one of the few openly communist rappers in the Sinosphere, together with his comrade Ransom-Notes from the UK, began working on "a Single Spark." In comparison to his previous album, which contains comedic songs like "Paolyta B" and "the Idol's Handbook," "a Single Spark" takes on a more serious tone and delves deeper into Xiangyu's ideology.

Despite the comparatively somber tone, this new album avoids repetitive preaching. Through sharing his personal experiences and the things he saw growing up in the United States, Xiangyu debunks the so-called "American Dream." Using materialist dialectics, he tells us how hip hop has lost its rebellious essence, and also analyzes power dynamics and touches on topics such as the environment. It is difficult to imagine how Xiangyu and Ransom-Notes were able to condense such a vast expanse of knowledge into an album less than 20 minutes in length. You will not be disappointed should you decide to sit down and listen to such a bold album while studying the lyrics. Reminiscent of hip hop's golden age, Ransom-Notes' beatmaking provides the listener with the sugar that makes the pill easier to swallow. Xiangyu's carefully constructed rhymes and the occasional humorous punch line demonstrate his sincere attempt to make his agitprop more accessible to the layperson.

Criticizing US hegemony and the socioeconomic order of today is tantamount to shattering the fundamental beliefs of many, and Xiangyu is acutely aware of this. The fact that hip hop can serve as a platform for pointing out injustices is what attracted Xiangyu to the genre in the first place. "A Single Spark" is similar to "Soundtrack to the Struggle" by Lowkey, one of Xiangyu's influences, in the sense that it is truly revolutionary in content. Those who genuinely seek to transform the predicaments plaguing our world today will certainly find inspiration in Xiangyu's music.

作詞：鍾翔宇
編曲：Ransom-Notes
錄音：鍾翔宇
混音：鍾翔宇、Ransom-Notes
母帶後期製作：Glenn Schick
繪圖：Bijan Nader Sharifi

Lyrics by Xiangyu,
Beats by Ransom-Notes,
Recorded by Xiangyu,
Mixed by Xiangyu and Ransom-Notes
Mastered by Glenn Schick,
Artwork by Bijan Nader Sharifi.

#星星之火 #鍾翔宇 #aSingleSpark