➥在提出流行病學預測模型時，有幾個問題須先釐清：
一、此模型是要推估長期或短期趨勢
二、此模型的假設為何？
三、不確定性如何在模型中呈現？
四、用甚麼樣的資料用來建立模型
五、模型僅適用於特定情境或是可以通用？


由於模型的正確性需建立在一些假設和變數上，例如：在新冠肺炎病毒的傳播率及致病率大多未知的情況下，需仰賴不同情境的假設下模型模擬（simulations）以提供可能的風險預測，此外，相關公衛介入措施，更增加流行病學模型準確預測的難度。


因此，流行病學模型預測正確與否，取決於我們對新冠肺炎病毒疾病本身及病毒的了解和相關合理的假設， 流行病學預測模型運用得宜並對其限制有相當的了解，才能輔助政府當局制訂相對應即時的配套措施。(「財團法人國家衛生研究院」蔡慧如博士 摘要整理 ➥http://forum.nhri.org.tw/covid19/virus/j_translate/j1063/)


📋 Wrong but Useful — What Covid-19 Epidemiologic Models Can and Cannot Tell Us (2020/05/17)+中文摘要轉譯
■ Author：
Inga Holmdahl, Caroline Buckee.
■ Link：
(The New England Journal of Medicine) https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2016822


🔔豐富的學術文獻資料都在【論壇COVID-19學術專區】
■ http://forum.nhri.org.tw/covid19/


#2019COVID19Academic
衛生福利部
疾病管制署 - 1922防疫達人
疾病管制署
國家衛生研究院-論壇

交大電子研究所特邀德國 #Aachen大學 Christoph Jungemann教授——8/13~24開授暑修課程【 Simulation of Electronic Noise in Devices】，歡迎本系所及外系所學生踴躍來修習。7/6（五）前洽電子系所辦公室～

#上課時間：自8月13至8月24日，每週一至週四BCD及週五BCDEFG。
#加選：請於7/6（五）下午17:00前至 #電子系所辦公室（ED107）找翁小姐加選。

——106 學年（暑修）課程綱要 Summer Course Outlines ——

#課程名稱Course Name：
（英文）Simulation of electronic noise in devices
（中文）半導體元件中之電子雜訊模擬

#學分數Credits：2
#語言Language：English
#修課對象 Attendee：Student
教學要點概述Evaluation：考試Exam 60%、作業Assignment 40%
開課單位：電子研究所 Institute of Electronics

課程概述與目標Objectives：
Electronic noise is an unavoidable property of semiconductor devices and degrades their performance. It has to be taken into account in the design of analog circuits.

In the first part of the course, briefly the fundamentals of analog circuit theory (N-ports, gain and stability etc.) are reviewed. Next basic concepts of noise in devices and circuits are introduced. Based on these concepts the impedance field method is derived and compact models for noise in devices (pn diode, bipolar transistor, MOSFET) are developed. The noise properties of these devices are discussed.

In the second part of the course, the numerical methods necessary for device simulation are introduced. This covers grids, discretization of partial differential equations, solvers for large systems of equations, the drift-diffusion model, stationary calculations, transient simulations and their stability and analysis in the frequency domain. Finally, numerical devices simulation of electronic noise will be explained.

In the exercise of the first part problems relating to the theory are solved. In the second part, a simple device simulation program in MATLAB is developed.