🌻Docusign(DOCU), Crowdstrike(CRWD)財報結果
上週這兩家公司發表財報了.

這兩天看了一下他們的財報結果. Again, 兩家的表現都很好, 但發現分析師給DOCU的調價(往上)幅度比較多, 就好奇研究了一下SaaS公司是怎麼被估值的. 有興趣的話可以看看(從中學習到很多. 非常推薦一讀):
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/09/blog-post.html

(By the way, 分析師對CRWD的價格調幅沒那麼大, 主因是成長趨緩了. 而DOCU的free cash flow佔營收比, 以及顧客黏著力在這季創了新高, 是讓分析師按讚的幾個原因).

關於CRWD: "The Street is already modeling revenue growth deceleration in 2022 to 36%, down from 60% expected in 2021, which on its own might prove a hurdle for a stock already trading at a high multiple," said Bank of America analyst Tal Liani in a report.

分析師對於DOCU的評價:
• 11位buy; 給的價格分別是: $310, $320 (x2), $330 (x2), $340 (x2), $345, $350, $350, $389
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst continues to view them as a best in class way to play digital transformation trends with strong growth, cash flow and profitability, and a strong competitive position. Power said DocuSign remains one of his top long-term compounding growth ideas.
o Citi: While slightly shy of the double-digit billings beat in recent quarters, DocuSign still delivered a solid 8% beat to Q2 billings, which grew 47% year-over-year, Radke tells investors in a research note.
o Evercore ISI: he calls "another strong quarter." While some may have wanted to see more aggressive Q3 billings guidance, he believes estimates "continue to leave room for upside," Materne said.
o JMP Securities: While revenue growth decelerated to 50% from 58% in Q1, the company is the clear leader in electronic signature and the broader system of agreement having crossed over 1M customers with a $2B run rate this quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that he sees lots of room for growth as DocuSign targets a $50B total addressable market.
o Needham: The analyst commented, "Docusign reported another strong quarter in 2QF22 with typical DOCU upside to revenue and profitability. Sales metrics and growth decelerated Q/Q, as we expected against a massive pandemic quarter, but at a much slower rate than we believe much of the Street was anticipating. 65k net new customers was lower than the 70k - 90 range of CY20 but was still more than 2x greater than any pre-pandemic quarter, highlighting a strong end-market driving 47% billings growth against a strong comp. Commentary on incremental Agreement Cloud demand was positive, suggesting an additional growth tailwind combined with solid international can further aid 2HF22. Although DOCU shares could be lower near-term due to weak 2H OpMg guidance, we think this guidance is conservative, as the recent OM was greater than the pre-pandemic level even with tough comps."
o RBC Capital: The quarter highlighted the sustainability of the company's tailwinds post-pandemic as most of its underlying metrics such as billings and net revenue retention were solid, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that the traction with CLM and Notary was also "impressive".

分析師對於CRWD的評價:
• 12位buy; 給的價格分別是: $300, $310 (x2), $313, $315 (x2) , $305, $320, $325, $330 (x2), $340
• 1位給hold: $280 (from $220 by J.P. Morgan(same))
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst believes the company has significant room for growth with core modules, opportunities with Humio and in cloud workload security, among others, should help drive a continuation of strong growth over a long time horizon.
o BTIG: The company's "strong" Q2 results "cleared every hurdle", even though the buy-side benchmarks may have been slightly higher, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Powell adds that Crowdstrike is clearly gaining share in its core endpoint security target market at a rapid pace and gaining traction with new products across multiple categories.
o Canaccord: The analyst said the stock is down from its recent highs, and he thinks the re-rating creates a more favorable entry point for longer-oriented investors for a foundational security name. He views Crowdstrike as a long-term secular winner in security due to its native cloud platform advantage versus closely held peers in endpoint security combined with platform expansion into tangential segments to capture greater share of security budgets.
o Goldman Sachs: CrowdStrike last night delivered "another beat and raise quarter as the company benefited from another quarter of elevated demand," Essex said. But it traded lower following net new annual recurring revenue growth guidance that was slightly less than investors had hoped for. Essex, nonetheless, said the quarter demonstrated CrowdStrike's "ability to continue to go down market efficiently."
o JMP Securities: The analyst notes the company's Q2 annualized recurring revenue of $1.34B topping his estimate of $1.30B, with "sustained" 70% ARR and revenue growth along with margin upside seen as key highlights for the quarter. Suppiger adds that the metrics reflect Crowdstrike's "strong execution and robust demand environment".
o Mizuho: "very good" fiscal Q2 results. The annual recurring revenue growth of 70% year-over-year "was strong and still nicely surpassed" the Street's 65%-66% estimate, Moskowitz tells investors in a research note. He believes "strong execution can propel" Crowdstrike's stock higher.
o Piper Sandler: The company's metrics "outperformed across the board" in Q2 with 70% annual recurring revenue and revenue growth and record net new customer adds in the quarter, Owens tells investors in a research note.
o RBC Capital: Hedberg adds that CrowdStrike's record pipeline entering Q3 should continue to fuel the company's "land-and-expand" momentum.
o Stifel: Q2 results that he said "exceeded consensus estimates across all major financial metrics." He continues to believe that Crowdstrike's growth opportunity "remains in the early days" despite the company's scale given continued share capture within its core endpoint security market and incremental module adoption on the Falcon Platform, Reback tells investors.
o UBS: the company reported "pretty good" Q2 results against high expectations.

🌻趨勢: 跨境電商 Cross-border commerce
Morgan Stanley:
From our perspective, we think many are underestimating what the cross-border eCommerce demand could ultimately be, once key friction points like FX rates, tax and duties, shipping, language, etc are smoothed—all issues that Global-E directly addresses.

Cross-border ecommerce brings new, high-yield volume: We think elevated levels of cross-border ecommerce (ex-travel) is a structural shift thathas yet to be fully contemplated in MA (and V)'s long-term forecasts. MA's cross-border CNP ex-travel volume was 69% above 2019's level in 2Q and 63% higher in 1Q. Strength reflects both broader ecommerce adoption plus globalization of commerce, as marketplaces and services that reduce cross-border friction (such as those from GLBE) make international online ordering more readily adopted. Early data at V suggests greater cross-border ecommerce spend is persisting even in areas with pre-pandemic levels of international travel. Cross-border transactions also come at a higher yield, making us more optimistic that the trend can bring incremental long-term growth to the networks.

產業的潮流是有連貫性的. 疫情讓電商更發達後, 接下來應該就是加速電商跨境了. 跨境的話, 有很多問題需要解決(稅率, 語言, etc.) 這就需要有公司來做整合的動作. 這種跨境, 也可以想像是omnichannel的一種呈現.

Harley Finkelstein (President of Shopify): "I mean I think commerce in 2021 is cross-border."

🌻SPAC熱潮退卻，初創市值蒸發750億美元
"SPAC熱潮已經退卻。分析顯示，在2月中旬以前完成合併的137家SPAC的總市值已經蒸發25%，市值回落幅度上個月一度超過1,000億美元。"

"像貝萊德(BlackRock Inc., BLK)和富達投資(Fidelity Investments Inc.)這類企業管理的基金，以及許多對沖基金、養老金管理公司和其他一些投資者，都在SPAC的回落中遭受了衝擊，他們在去年年底開始的熱潮中競相投資SPAC。其中許多基金由於在價格還很低的時候就早早入場，所以現在仍坐擁可觀收益。事實上，SPAC市值仍有約2,500億美元，高於一年前的約1,000億美元，反映出這期間股價上漲和新公司上市的影響。

但即便如此，今年年初令人炫目的回報還是讓許多後來者做了接盤俠，扎堆投資所謂穩賺不賠的領域，其永恆的風險可見一斑。在過去的幾個月裡，一些投資者眼睜睜看著帳面財富縮水。"

"股價下跌會在SPAC領域形成惡性循環，因為投資者有權在併購交易前從空白支票公司撤資。一旦SPAC跌破發行價，投資者就更有可能這樣做，而許多SPAC的股價現在正處於這樣的水平。目前，在尚未宣布併購交易的空白支票公司中，超過95%的公司股價低於發行價。

投資者的大規模撤資會讓已經上市的空白支票公司手上的現金大幅減少，讓其更難實現業務目標，並可能加劇股價跌勢。"

https://on.wsj.com/3n6JznC

🌻BNPL (buy now pay later)
But most BNPL providers including Affirm, Klarna and Afterpay have been losing money despite breakneck revenue growth as they invest heavily in marketing to win share. Sweden-based Klarna’s credit losses more than doubled in the second quarter. Affirm has projected adjusted operating losses of $50m-$55m for the fiscal year that ended June 30.

The path to profitability for many of these companies was to achieve massive scale, analysts said.

https://www.ft.com/content/ca201a37-a16d-4223-b123-04d38350a972

Pictures: 一葉知秋; from EarningsWhispers

有投資美股的朋友，可以看看哪一些公司被投資銀行 Morgan Stanley 列爲長期增長股票（secular growth stocks）

🌻本周末的估值會議(全程是用中文; 免費), 請有興趣參與的朋友看一下:

繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).

主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算是基礎的估值會議)

主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment　(此為小揚的粉絲頁)

參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.

(P.S. 因為主題有點難度, 所以不鼓勵旁聽, 因為吸收效果會不好. 不過若有讀者實在是很有興趣, 請私訊.)

時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間９點. 預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問

進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)

🌻好股介紹(不是推薦): Pool Corporation (POOL)

美股裡面最會漲的個股, 除了科技股外, 就是民生消費股了.

今天在整理資料的時候, 發現了一家好公司. 介紹(不是推薦)給有興趣進一步研究的讀者.

POOL是一家做游泳池的公司. 有競爭優勢(有市佔, 管理層好, 財務管理好). 過去五年漲了4.5倍.

公司網站: https://www.poolcorp.com/

Pool Corp. (ticker: POOL) is the nation's largest distributor of swimming pool supplies and parts, with a small irrigation business as well. It is larger than its next 52 competitors combined, but a fragmented industry means it still has a long runway for growth.

“Pool has everything we look for in terms of a sustainable competitive advantage: good core business, management team and financials," says Tim Holland, portfolio manager at Aston/Tamro Funds.
資訊來源:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/SB50001424053111903843804579535632354750784

🌻復盤2010科技股

有人說, 今年科技股像是2010年, 漲不太起來.

好奇心驅使下, 我去挖了點資料.

結果發現, 2010那時候Netflix漲很多(226%), 還是當年最會漲的一隻股. 而那時候NFLX還是高成長股, 也有獲利.

那年NFLX的年營收成長是40%+
—> 是不是營收成長越高, 股價就會越衝? 值得投資人思考.

所以原本就投資secular growth的投資人, 若不想換策略, 就還是專注在secular growth的個股. 只是挑股要嚴謹.

The Best-Performing Stocks of 2010
https://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/flowchart/2010/12/28/the-best-performing-stocks-of-2010

Top Performing Stocks of 2010
https://www.cnbc.com/id/40862453

NFLX2011年報:
https://s22.q4cdn.com/959853165/files/doc_financials/annual_reports/NFLX_10K.pdf

🌻我平常做的功課

曾經有幾位股友問我平常會看甚麼資料, 訂甚麼刊物.

目前我有訂閱的是: Barron's, IBD(investors.com), WSJ, Seeking Alpha.

固定看的網站: CNBC

每季做的事情: 看&整理公司季報結果.

平常有空會看看公司的新聞(其實若重要的事件, 高層在發表財報的時候也會提).

Picture: 美國國慶日周末, 與朋友到湖邊烤肉, 順便消暑(熱熱熱!) 過去幾年, 每次去人都很少的湖邊公園, 這次竟然人滿為患! 美國人顯然悶壞了........

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Panyembrama is a form of secular Balinese dance designed by I Wayan Berata and first performed in 1971. This dance includes movements of several Balinese sacred dances.

Panyembramaは、I Wayan Berataによって設計された世俗的なバリ舞踊の形式であり、1971年に最初に実行されました。この舞踊は、バリの神聖なダンスの動きを提供します。

Kecak Dance is said to originate from a Balinese ancient ritual called Sanghyang, aimed as a form of exorcism or to repel evil spirits in which dancers fall into a trance. ... The dance can also be found at Tanah Lot, GWK Cultural Park, Pura Dalem Ubud, Padang Tegal Stage, Batubulan, Umadewi Stage, and more.

ケチャックダンスは、悪魔払いの一種として、またはダンサーがトランス状態に陥る悪霊を撃退することを目的とした、サンヤンと呼ばれるバリの古代の儀式に由来すると言われています。 ...ダンスは、タナロット、GWKカルチュラルパーク、プラダレムウブド、パダンテガルステージ、バトゥブラン、ウマデウィステージなどでも見られます。

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#JustJANG
I just discovered #TheJuans and damn, this band is making worship-feel secular OPM songs. Ang galing!
I love them. And this Hindi Tayo Pwede is one hell of a song.
#HindiTayoPwedebyNasser

Hindi Tayo Pwede
“Hindi Tayo Pwede”
Words and music by Carl Guevarra
Published by Viva Music Publishing Inc.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kD767CcTe-U

Instrumental by CoversPh
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCaPwSXblS8F0owlKHGc6huw

NASSER MUSIC under CURVE ENTERTAINMENT
Now available on Spotify, Apple Music, Deezer, Amazon Music

DON' T FORGET TO ENJOY WHILE WATCHING.
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與和尚談戀愛的遊戲？！
甜蜜！禁欲！不沾染红塵的身心，只有你能觸碰…

遊戲連結：
https://store.steampowered.com/app/520850/Lost_in_Secular_Love/?l=schinese -- Watch live at https://www.twitch.tv/iris520820