今天是美國第46任總統 Joe Biden 和 副總統Kamara Harris 宣誓就職典禮，在川普四年執政後，這個國家需要修補傷痛、消泯分歧。
　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
Biden 強調 團結 (unity)、Harris 是第一位亞裔女性從政者打破天花板當上副總統位置，值得慶賀。
　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
而今天就職典禮最令人感動的，我認為非屬 Amanda Gorman，這位年輕的非裔美籍詩人，用她誠懇而堅定的聲音喚醒美國民主社會的良知，也為過去幾週的混亂和未來的不確定性注入了希望。
　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
美國畢竟是世界強國，她的穩定和經濟繁榮和包容和民主實踐是國際社會賴以維持秩序和運作重要指標。
　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
過去的四年充滿不確定性，將來四年或許也是相當不確定，人們如何在不確定(uncertainty)下自處，因為新冠肺炎帶來的社會疏離冷漠，在心靈上如何面對孤單和在務實面上如何重振經濟和國際秩序都是拜登要面對的課題。
　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
這首The Hill We Climb 我聽了好幾次，相當感動，或許在詩裡可以得到一些答案吧。
　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
———————
　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
“The Hill We Climb”
Amanda Gorman
When day comes we ask ourselves, where can we find light in this never-ending shade? The loss we carry, a sea we must wade. We’ve braved the belly of the beast, we’ve learned that quiet isn’t always peace and the norms and notions of what just is, isn’t always justice. And yet the dawn is ours before we knew it, somehow we do it, somehow we’ve weathered and witnessed a nation that isn’t broken but simply unfinished.
We, the successors of a country and a time where a skinny black girl descended from slaves and raised by a single mother can dream of becoming president only to find herself reciting for one. And, yes, we are far from polished, far from pristine, but that doesn’t mean we are striving to form a union that is perfect, we are striving to forge a union with purpose, to compose a country committed to all cultures, colors, characters and conditions of man.
So we lift our gazes not to what stands between us, but what stands before us. We close the divide because we know to put our future first, we must first put our differences aside. We lay down our arms so we can reach out our arms to one another, we seek harm to none and harmony for all.
Let the globe, if nothing else, say this is true: that even as we grieved, we grew, even as we hurt, we hoped, that even as we tired, we tried, that we’ll forever be tied together victorious, not because we will never again know defeat but because we will never again sow division.
Scripture tells us to envision that everyone shall sit under their own vine and fig tree and no one should make them afraid. If we’re to live up to our own time, then victory won’t lie in the blade, but in in all of the bridges we’ve made.
That is the promise to glade, the hill we climb if only we dare it because being American is more than a pride we inherit, it’s the past we step into and how we repair it. We’ve seen a force that would shatter our nation rather than share it. That would destroy our country if it meant delaying democracy, and this effort very nearly succeeded. But while democracy can periodically be delayed, but it can never be permanently defeated.
In this truth, in this faith, we trust, for while we have our eyes on the future, history has its eyes on us, this is the era of just redemption we feared in its inception we did not feel prepared to be the heirs of such a terrifying hour but within it we found the power to author a new chapter, to offer hope and laughter to ourselves, so while once we asked how can we possibly prevail over catastrophe, now we assert how could catastrophe possibly prevail over us.
We will not march back to what was but move to what shall be, a country that is bruised but whole, benevolent but bold, fierce and free, we will not be turned around or interrupted by intimidation because we know our inaction and inertia will be the inheritance of the next generation, our blunders become their burden. But one thing is certain: if we merge mercy with might and might with right, then love becomes our legacy and change our children’s birthright.
So let us leave behind a country better than the one we were left, with every breath from my bronze, pounded chest, we will raise this wounded world into a wondrous one, we will rise from the golden hills of the West, we will rise from the windswept Northeast where our forefathers first realized revolution, we will rise from the lake-rimmed cities of the Midwestern states, we will rise from the sunbaked South, we will rebuild, reconcile, and recover in every known nook of our nation in every corner called our country our people diverse and beautiful will emerge battered and beautiful, when the day comes we step out of the shade aflame and unafraid, the new dawn blooms as we free it, for there is always light if only we’re brave enough to see it, if only we’re brave enough to be it.
http://user12976.piee.pw/3anxvm

【目測經濟】

一，點解會有兩條友響鐵達尼號上面爭女？因為佢哋唔知條船撞緊山呀。嗱，正路來講，假如你知條船撞緊山，你又改變唔到航道，你會點？自助餐食飽啲，搵定逃生路線，甚至乎一早去定 deck 面搵定救生艇。爭女，傻的嗎？

二，Donald Trump 話其實自己可以唔需要同老習開拖，不過上帝叫做，冇法子啦。事實係，美國呢一轉資產泡沫周期，已經有出現調整嘅跡象。Trump 好清楚，而點解佢揀呢個時間出手？我點知喎。

三，之前我都有提過，inverted yield curve 呢個超自然現象，可以簡單理解成資金買到冇野好買，少少 yield 嘅長債都照殺。不過，點解大家都集體地認為其他嘢買唔過呢？大家眼中，世界資產市場就只有一條超級大水喉就係 The Fed；以前就話 Don’t fight the Fed，依家直頭係一早要投靠 The Fed。公開市場運作，係聯儲局透過買入國債放水出街，又或者借錢畀商業銀行去買國債；德國國債實質負利率嘅狀況，有可能會出現響美國。

四，話雖如此，強硬對華政策，唔應該理解成 Trump 嘅個人 agenda。兩黨共識係中國唔守信，亦都講咗好幾年。Trump 越話自己係老習好朋友，其實潛台詞係叫老習畀佢攞個彩好過益共和民主兩黨班人。

五，至於大陸，數據嘅嘢，信則有不信則無。首先，人民幣跌出口會唔會更有競爭力？平，點都會買多咗，但唔代表賺多咗。最簡單嘅宏觀經濟學都有教，貶值嘅結果有兩個，出口平咗，入口貴咗。中國經濟嘅不方便真相係，食品能源等唔少都要靠入口。有唔少道聽途說嘅消息話，大陸近來進口貨價錢升唔少，甚至影響到成條供應鏈都加晒價。

六，八十年代中國最大嘅經濟民生事件係乜？其中之一係闖物價關，但實情係半自由半開放嘅市場，促成黑市活動同貪腐。中共好避忌呢段歷史，但始終要面對現實：當市場效率同生產力嘅增長配合唔到貨幣信貸嘅總額，結果就係通脹。

七，歷史上，貨幣信貸急速增，通常都係因為軍費（皇室點大花筒一日都係得廿四個鐘享樂，用得幾多吖）。現代歐美各國，就多一樣叫 entitlement，不過偉大嘅人民共和國，又有乜 entitlement 吖。軍費，通常對市場效率係完全冇任何脾益。所以，每個政權最後都係出現不受控嘅通脹，古今中外都係咁。但通脹係 symptom of the disease 而唔係 disease 本身。即係一個有長期病嘅人，通常死於併發症。

八，「咁幾時支爆呀？講咁耐。」我又點知呀？正所謂 a broken clock is right twice a day，一直買圍骰，梗有一鋪中。不如真搵病因啦。目前中國面對兩個最嚴重嘅結構性問題：一，人口結構；一孩政策真係曠古爍今嘅超錯政策，中國未堀起就老化。二，市場結構；政府指令經濟仍然存在，冇推陳出新冇代謝，整體效率極低。

九，人口結構，基本上無得救。講完。

十，經濟結構，唔係無得救，但呢個手術涉及到一個核心問題：黨指揮軍政之餘，亦都係成個國家經濟結構入面有利益，由四大銀行、國級央企等，到地方經濟同企業。情況比洋務運動時成立嘅乜局乜局，問題更大。貪腐係因為制度入面大多誘因，聖人去 run 都好難唔貪。

十一，國企上市，唔代表佢哋有根本嘅改變，只不過佢哋多咗一個集資嘅渠道。另外，近年好多距離中央水喉太遠但又有地方勢力嘅企業，咪借香港融資，上市又好發債又好。賣股票同借錢，本來冇乜問題，不過當你 book 嘅收入同利潤係人民幣，但借嘅係美金，人民幣貶一成就等於即時畀人起十厘釘，都咪話唔金。所以我經常提醒讀者，人民跌香港好難唔仆直，係仆到直一直，慘過 1997。

十二，結果，中央唯一嘅救市方法，咪又係貨幣信貸量寬。大家知唔知點解大陸有外匯管制？假如畀十四億人可以上 Facebook，你估佢哋會唔會淨係上微訊？同理，有得揀，佢哋又點會只係持有人仔？外匯管制，變相就係迫大陸人持有人民幣，用人民幣買返自己嘅股票；貿易保護主義，就係迫大陸人同返微訊小米華為。

十三，「喜茶微訊小米華為，都幾好吖！」你可能會話。甚至你都有用埋一份。但重點係有冇得揀。現實係，你見到幾多大陸人想去外面？其實，由晚清到家陣，可以去外面消費同投資嘅，永遠都係幸運嘅特權階級。我成日話呢個國家個幾世紀都不思長進，真係好 sad。

十四，從文化層面上，由於經濟結構嘅需要，大陸永遠都有一股反外嘅情緒，好深層次咁 justify 封疆鎖國嘅現實。呢個現象唔一定係國家主導，有時候一般人見到自己嘅處境，好易會選擇一個簡單嘅方法去 reconcile 去 make sense of the experience。矛盾同差距，最終變成仇恨，真正嘅集體因愛成恨。上世紀，有義和拳；近年都有唔少憤青。英美澳加撐香港集會踩場班小粉紅，亦應作如是觀。

十五，林鄭響呢個時候，搞單咁杰撻撻嘅，令共和民主兩黨都有人話要檢討香港政策法，但老習都要死撐，我估啦，係因為如果佢一縮，唔知到其他仍然在生嘅精神領袖，會點樣乘機發圍。中共無錯係極權，但世上無真正嘅獨裁政府，尤其係十四億人嘅國度，一定有一個權力利益糾纏嘅共生體。對呢班人來講，內部權力平衡，來自共同利益。一旦共同利益受損，就會出現分裂排斥。

十六，中南海班人，內鬥內行，外鬥外行。林鄭今次累到大老闆，假如大老闆覺得佢只係廢，就點都要撐，但都要搵定 plan B。不過，爾虞我詐嘅宮廷政治入面，係咪真係等到你有 plan B 呢？我唔知，都係估下。

十七，理論上美國九月都會過民主人權法案，好快就會有人講美港關係法。同埋，直覺經濟真係差咗好多。正如一開始咁講，爭女呢，thanks but no thanks la，我都係食埋個自助餐，然後上 deck 面吹下海風，睇下星⋯⋯

多謝收睇，多謝分享。

【亞洲究竟何時才會通過同性婚姻？】（中譯）

Foreign Policy 於日前（11/30) 刊出專文報導台灣婚姻平權法案進程，文章以伴侶盟發起「婚姻平權革命陣線」，於 2014/10/5 彩虹圍城行動中，群眾把婚姻平權四個大球推入立院作為開頭。精要勾勒了近年來台灣婚姻平權發展簡史，並詳盡分析了目前法案風雲詭譎的政治情勢，報導也委婉但明確點出，婚姻平權法案的通過與否，正在考驗著蔡總統的領導能力與政治誠信。

原文 參見
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/11/30/marriage-equality-in-taiwan-isnt-a-done-deal-tsai-ing-wen-legislation-lgbt-taipei/?wp_login_redirect=0
作者/LINDA VAN DER HORST
2016年11月30日
中文翻譯：Tasha Chang

標題：When Will Asia Finally Have Same-Sex Marriage?
亞洲究竟何時才會通過同性婚姻？？
Taiwan is on the verge of becoming the first Asian government to legalize marriage equality. But the public is deeply divided.
台灣即將成為亞洲第一個同性婚姻合法化的國家，但輿論仍高度分歧。
In October 2014, a crowd at an LGBT rights rally in Taipei, one of many, lobbed four large red balloons emblazoned with the Chinese characters for marriage equality into the fenced courtyard of Taiwan’s legislature. At that time, a comfortable majority of Taiwanese supported same-sex marriage; a number of polls in the self-governing island of 23 million indicated as much, with one showing as many as 71 percent in favor. But several initiatives to amend the law to achieve marriage equality, first mooted in 2003, have not been successful. Two years later, three marriage equality bills now sit on legislators’ desks; although international media have been quick to announce that Taiwan stands on the cusp of being the first government in Asia to achieve marriage equality, the island’s public seems deeply divided. In the latest poll on the subject, released on Nov. 29, 46 percent of respondents supported marriage equality, while 45 percent opposed it. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s lawmakers and its civil society have been more cautious than recent headlines in Western media suggest.

2014年10月，在架起拒馬的立法院外，有一大群為了同志權益發聲的群眾，高推著四顆分別寫著「婚」、「姻」、「平」、「權」四字的紅色大球，推往立法院的方向。當時，在有著2,300萬人口的台灣，有絕大多數民眾都支持婚姻平權，幾個民意調查也顯示同樣的結果，其中有個調查的支持度甚至還高達71%。然而，最早於2003年所發動，接續欲修法以達成婚姻平權的數個提案，最後都無疾而終。兩年後，三套版本的婚姻平權法案現正擺在立法委員的案前等待審議。雖然國際媒體迅速下了判斷宣告台灣即將成為亞洲第一個達成婚姻平權的國家，但台灣的民意似乎仍高度分歧。最近一次於今年11月29日公布的一份調查指出，46%的受訪者支持婚姻平權，另有45%的受訪者表示反對。同時，相較於西方國際媒體樂觀的報導走向，台灣的立法委員與公民社會的態度反而較為小心謹慎。

Island-wide marriage equality initiatives have been unsuccessful in spite of growing support over decades. Even without national legislation, many local governments in Taiwan now allow same-sex couples to participate in collective weddings and to record their partnership in household registries across the island, although neither action confers any legal rights.

過去數十年，即便婚姻平權的支持度越來越高，推動婚姻平權的行動卻屢遭挫敗。雖然中央尚未立法保障同志權益，台灣有許多地方政府已開放同性伴侶參與聯合婚禮並開放同性伴侶註記，然無論是聯合婚禮還是同性伴侶註記，皆未能給予同性伴侶法律上的權利。

To many, the election of President Tsai Ing-wen and her Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in January portended a broader, deeper change. Tsai openly made statements that appeared to support marriage equality during and after her campaign. In an October 2015 Facebook video posted to coincide with Taipei’s annual LGBT pride parade, Tsai exclaimed, “Everyone is equal before love.” A year later, she posted a photo on her Facebook page showing a rainbow, adding that her “belief has not changed” post-election. In August, Tsai appointed the first transgender official in government, Audrey Tang, as executive councilor for digital policy, which looked like another step toward acceptance of different gender norms.

對於許多人來說，現任總統蔡英文與其所屬政黨民主進步黨（民進黨）在一月總統大選的勝選，預告了更大幅度、更深程度的改變。無論是在選舉期間或當選後，蔡英文數次公開發表支持婚姻平權的文章。2015年10月，為響應臺北的年度同志大遊行，蔡英文的臉書發表了一支影片，影片中的蔡英文說道：「在愛之前，大家都是平等的。」一年過後，她在臉書上發佈了一則彩虹橫跨天際的照片，補充道：「雖然我的身分變了，但是我相信的價值沒有改變」，強調選後立場沒有改變。今年八月，蔡英文內閣任命首位跨性別官員唐鳳擔任政務委員，督導數位經濟與開放政府。此舉看來又是另一個接納不同性別典範的舉措。

Since Tsai took office this May, pressure has been building on her to deliver.
自蔡英文五月就任後，要求實現承諾的壓力升高

Since Tsai took office this May, pressure has been building on her to deliver. Yet she has never explicitly promised that her administration would push for same-sex marriage legislation, and critics have feared that once in office, she would find herself unable to follow through on her progressive rhetoric. The party that Tsai leads, the DPP, “has neither devoted sufficient resources to communicate the issues of marriage equality nor to reconcile differences within the party,” Victoria Hsu, who heads the nonprofit Taiwan Alliance to Promote Civil Partnership Rights (TAPCPR), told Foreign Policy.

蔡英文自今年五月就任後，要求她實現承諾的壓力不斷升高。然而，蔡英文卻從來沒有公開承諾她的行政團隊會推動婚姻平權的立法，批評者認為，一旦就任，蔡英文就無法堅持實現她過往曾發表過充滿進步性的言論。非營利組織台灣伴侶權益推動聯盟理事長許秀雯向《外交政策》表示，「蔡總統所領導的民進黨一直沒有真正投注夠多的資源在婚姻平權議題之上，或去溝通與化解黨內歧見。」

It was therefore a setback when Justice Minister Chiu Tai-san announced in August that his ministry still intended to introduce its own same-sex partnership bill — but only in 2017, after studying the impact of such a law on Taiwanese society. (In Taiwan, ministries can introduce bills into the legislature.) The effort dates back to the previous, more socially conservative Kuomintang (KMT) administration of Ma Ying-jeou and is an attempt to compromise between supporters of marriage equality and religious groups opposed. Proposing a separate law for same-sex partnership is politically easier, as it leaves the institution of marriage as currently constituted unchanged.

於是，當法務部長邱太三在八月宣布，經過研究相關法律對於台灣社會的影響，法務部仍傾向在2017年推出同性伴侶法時（台灣的行政部門可自行推出法案送進立法院審議），對於同志社群來說是一大挫敗。推行同性伴侶法可溯及較為保守的國民黨馬英九政府當權時期，用意在面對支持婚姻平權的群眾與反對婚姻平權的宗教團體中取得妥協。對於當政者而言，推動同性伴侶專法因未修改現行婚姻制度，在政治上的壓力較小。

In the absence of strong top-down leadership on the issue from Tsai, momentum for the bills currently under consideration has come from the bottom up. Audrey Ko, the chief editor of Womany, an online media outlet focused on gender issues and LGBT rights, says a stigma remains for gays and lesbians in Taiwan, one her company seeks to dispel. Other organizations, such as the Taiwan Tongzhi (LGBT) Hotline Association, perform peer counseling and advocacy work. Even corporations are chipping in; in March, McDonald’s released a commercial in which a son comes out to his father in one of its restaurants. (The father accepts it.)

缺少蔡英文「從上而下」貫徹的領導力，對於三個版本婚姻平權法案的支持聲量多來自「由下而上」的力量。關注性別與同志議題的線上媒體女人迷總編輯柯采岑表示，臺灣的同志族群還是被污名化，而女人迷就是想要破除此種污名；其他的組織例如台灣同志諮詢熱線協會則提供同志諮詢服務與倡議。企業也紛紛響應婚姻平權的議題。今年三月，在麥當勞發表的電視廣告中，有一個兒子在麥當勞向自己的父親出櫃（而父親也接受他了）。

This summer, a number of Taiwanese pop artists organized a benefit concert to raise awareness for marriage equality; tickets sold out in minutes. Pop superstar Jolin Tsai performed a lesbian-themed song for the occasion. In the music video for the song “We’re All Different, Yet the Same,” she makes the case for marriage equality by describing the plight of a woman whose partner of more than 30 years is hospitalized; the woman is unable to sign a consent form for emergency surgery because she is legally not a spouse or family member.

今年夏天，有多個臺灣流行音樂藝人組織了一場為婚姻平權而唱的公益演唱會，演唱會門票一開賣就在幾分鐘內售罄。流行樂天后蔡依林在該場演唱會中也演出以女同志為主題的歌。在她的「不一樣又怎樣」的MV中，描述了一對相守30年的女同志伴侶，其中一位因病住院，然她的伴侶卻無法在她需要進行緊急手術時簽署手術同意書，因為她的伴侶並不具有配偶或是親屬的身份。

A real-life version of this tragedy triggered public outcry and reinvigorated support for marriage equality. On Oct. 16, 67-year-old French professor Jacques Picoux fell to his death from the top of a 10-story building in Taipei, police said. He is thought to have committed suicide after depression caused by the death of his partner due to cancer; Picoux was unable to make medical decisions for his partner in his final days, as Picoux had no legal status. In a response to this outcry, legislators from the DPP and the KMT, as well as the caucus of the New Power Party (NPP), a young activist organization, all introduced similar marriage equality bills.

此種悲劇的真實案例引發了社會上強烈的抗議聲浪，推動婚姻平權運動更進一步。在今年10月16日，據警方表示，67歲的法國籍教授畢安生（Jacques Picoux）從位於台北的10樓住家一躍而下身亡。據悉，他有可能是因長期伴侶因癌症過世所引發的憂鬱症而自殺。當畢安生的伴侶在癌症末期時，因他沒有法律地位而無法替伴侶做醫療決定。為了回應關於婚姻平權的呼聲，民進黨與國民黨的立委以及由年輕的社運組織所組成的時代力量的黨團都推出了類似的婚姻平權法案。

All three proposals would amend the Taiwan Civil Code to open marriage to same-sex couples, but they differ in how to do so. DPP legislator Yu Mei-nu’s proposal introduces a general provision extending to same-sex couples the right to marriage, as well as other family law rights that accompany married status. But it leaves further gendered language across the civil code intact. The proposals of KMT legislator Hsu Yu-ren and the NPP would make references to “husband and wife” and “father and mother” gender-neutral throughout all relevant civil code provisions. These latter two proposals have great symbolic meaning, because they remove a heterosexual presumption from the code, but the legal effect is likely no different than Yu’s proposal.

這三個提案都主張修改民法將婚姻制度對同性伴侶開放，但對於如何開放則各有其詮釋。民進黨尤美女的版本採用一概括條款(註：新增民法971-1條)使同性配偶適用夫妻、父母子女等相關權利義務，但保留了民法中「性別化」的法律用語，未加修改。國民黨立委許毓仁與時代力量黨團的版本則將「夫妻」、「父母」等現行民法中的用語性別中立化。許毓仁與時代力量的版本，將異性戀預設的用語「性別中立化」而具有重大的象徵性意義，但若在法律適用結果而論，三個版本並無太大差異。

There is still a long legislative road to travel before Taiwan can become the first Asian government to legalize same-sex marriage. The bills passed their first reading on Nov. 17, but the DPP caucus whip has said the proposed bills will next be reviewed on Dec. 26. During the review process, any legislator can introduce a competing same-sex partnership act. Even if the bills were to enter a second reading, they could still face a boycott and be removed from the agenda. The bills will only become legislation after passing three readings.

臺灣要成為亞洲第一個將同性婚姻合法化的國家，仍有一大段立法之路要走。婚姻平權三版本的民法修正案都在今年11月17日通過了立法院一讀，而民進黨黨團總召表示，下一次審議的時間為12月26日。在審查過程中，任何一位立法委員都可以提出同性伴侶法作為對案。即便三個版本的婚姻平權法案進入了二讀，也還是有可能面臨杯葛而無法排進立法院的議程中。這三個版本的法案要通過三讀才有可能正式成為法律。

As these bills went through their first reading in the legislature this month, thousands of people protesting against marriage equality, and only several hundred rallying for it, gathered on Taipei’s streets.

當三個版本的法案本月在立法院通過一讀後，上千名反對婚姻平權的民眾走上台北街頭集結，當天支持婚姻平權而上街的民眾僅數百人。

As these bills went through their first reading in the legislature this month, thousands of people protesting against marriage equality, and only several hundred rallying for it, gathered on Taipei’s streets. Opposition to marriage equality in Taiwan largely comes from small but well-organized and vocal conservative religious groups. Four people reportedly even managed to storm into the legislative meeting room, shouting that the “legislators are monsters” and would want to change Taiwan “into an AIDS island.”

這三個版本的法案本月都在立法院通過一讀，為此，上千名反對婚姻平權的民眾走上台北街頭集結，然當天上街支持婚姻平權的民眾卻只有數百人。在台灣，大部分反對婚姻平權的民眾來自規模小但組織嚴密且發言聲量大的保守宗教團體。據報載，甚至有四名反對修法的民眾嘗試要衝進立法院司法及法制委員會的會議室，高喊著：「立委都是怪獸」、台灣要變「愛滋島」。

It is hard to tell whether the legislature will pass a same-sex marriage bill this time, says Hsu of TAPCPR, partly because of internal opposition within the DPP and KMT. (The NPP caucus fully supports its bill but only holds five seats in legislature.) Tsai has reiterated that the bills are “clear evidence” marriage equality has support across all parties. But even Yu, who introduced the DPP bill, says she is only cautiously optimistic about the chances of passing a marriage equality law.

台灣伴侶權益推動聯盟理事長許秀雯表示，現在沒有辦法預知立法院是否會通過婚姻平權法案，情勢走向如何，真的很難說。因為主要政黨國民黨及民進黨的立委雖然都有提出婚姻平權民法修正案，但這兩個黨裡面也都有反對者（時代力量雖然全黨都支持婚姻平權，在立法院內也只有五個席次）。蔡英文總統數度表示，不同版本婚姻平權法案的推出，即為此議題獲得跨黨派支持的「明證」。然而，即便是推出民進黨版本婚姻平權法案的尤美女立委也表示，對於婚姻平權是否能過關成為法律，她仍只抱持審慎樂觀的態度。

Outside lawmakers’ offices, the battle for public support continues. If anything, it seems to be waning precisely at the time when it will be most needed. “More and more people are confessing that they love gays but that they don’t support same-sex marriage,” said Ko, because they believe allowing same-sex partners to get married will harm traditional family values. She is therefore unsure whether Taiwan will manage to pass a bill in the next year. At least, Ko added, “people are talking [about it], and it is not a taboo anymore.”

在立法委員的辦公室外，爭取民意支持的戰爭仍未停歇。若真要說，此時此刻婚姻平權運動最需要的是什麼？大概就是更多的支持。女人迷總編輯柯采岑表示，「有越來越多人坦白表示，他們愛同志但是不支持婚姻平權」，因為他們認為，若同性伴侶可以結婚，將損害傳統家庭價值。」她也說，不確定臺灣能否在明年內通過婚姻平權法案。她補充：「但至少，大家都開始討論（婚姻平權法案）了，這再也不是禁忌了。」