今天, 應該是最炫最酷的一家公司, Robinhood, 上市的一天. 它獲利了嗎? 我想沒有多少投資人會care. 最關心的, 應該是它的營收成長率, 還有股價.

在我們一直追逐科技成長股, 被他們的高營收成長率, 潛在的高報酬昏眩的時候, 會不會忘記他們醜得要命的財務報表?

而在今年, 大家追逐的這些趨勢股表現不佳的時候, 是不是也給了我們一些省思?

其實美股中, 還有很多財務報表漂亮, 但聽起來一點也不有趣(甚至很無聊)的公司, 但他們股價穩定, 長期下來, 也給了投資人很大的回報. 像之前介紹過的POOL, 過去幾年也是平均一年翻一倍的漲幅.

而在IPO中, 也有這類的好公司.

Carrier Global(CARR), 2020年4月上市的IPO, 算是工業類股, 漲了快5倍. 有在獲利. (開利冷氣應該有聽過?就是這家公司)

Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO), 民生消費股, 也有獲利, 2020年10月上市的IPO, 目前也漲了3倍.

下面這篇文章挺好. 與大家分享. 就像文章作者所提的, 龜兔賽跑, 穩(漲)的烏龜, 不一定會輸.

也祝福大家找到&培養自己的能力圈, 穩穩獲利.

Jim Cramer: The Biggest Thing That Happened Thursday Was the Boring Stuff

No, it wasn't Robinhood or the mega-cap tech companies, it was names we depend on like Carrier Global.
By JIM CRAMER Jul 29, 2021 | 03:38 PM EDT

Stocks quotes in this article: HOOD, FB, PYPL, CARR, RTX, NUE, AGCO, ZM, ALGN, AAPL, EBAY, AMD, XLNX

One of the most glorious things I have seen involving the stock market in ages happened today.

Was it Vlad Tenev ringing the opening bell for his breakthrough, disruptive Robinhood (HOOD) , representing 22 million mostly young new investors? Was it the free-for-all decline in the stock of the "F" in FAANG, Facebook (FB) ? Or the clobbering that Paypal (PYPL) took after what looked to be a good quarter?

Nah. I was bumping into Dave Gitlin, CEO of Carrier Global (CARR) , and his charming daughter, a college student at the University of Wisconsin. They were calmly waiting for me to finish "Squawk on the Street" to say, "Hi," and I couldn't be more thrilled. Because unlike the much ballyhooed Robinhood deal, which seems like a bust, Carrier Global came public back in April 2020 at $12 and today, after tremendous earnings, not sales, but earnings, it made an all-time high at $53, after reporting a terrific number with tremendous HVAC sales, up 31%, and an earnings surprise of 55 cents vs. the 30 cents that Wall Street was expecting.

Carrier, which was spun off when United Technologies merged with Raytheon (RTX) had some tailwinds, like the need to have clean air inside, because of the pandemic and clear air outside because office buildings are responsible for 40% of carbon emissions. But the huge upside surprise and the gigantic buyback belonged to Dave and his team and I that's what I told his daughter. I made sure she knew how proud she should be about how this man made so much money for people. Twelve to 53 in 15 months time is the name of the game.

Look, I am not trying to take away from anything that Robinhood and its co-founder and CEO Vlad Tenev have created. Far from it. They have created billions for themselves and are now letting people participate in their great sales growth. You got a chance to pay a fortune per share and many Robinhoodies did, as tons of stock was allocated to the 22 million people who joined Robinhood, because of a bang up app that every young person seems to know.

I am simply saying that HVAC, yep heating, ventilation and air conditioning is one of the most boring businesses on earth and at times like today, with all of the hoopla of Robinhood it is easy to forget is how lots of money can be made being boring, and I like that. The most exciting thing that happened this year is Carrier helped provide refrigeration for vaccines. That's just fine with me.

Unlike Robinhood, Carrier hasn't brought anyone into the stock market. It's more laser-like focus on air conditioning once spun off from Raytheon means nothing to people. Just Wall Street gibberish. But you have probably walked by a Carrier machine thousands of times and never thought anything of it. Yet, you could have bought it for a song at six times earnings instead of 25 times sales.

The Carriers, with CEOs who pay themselves lavishly but perhaps not excessively, or the Nucor's (NUE) the steel company that's also well managed and sells at six times earnings, represent valuable properties, especially when the U.S. government is about to agree on a trillion dollar infrastructure bill and the country has more than 6% GDP. We don't know why they are re-opening trades or closing trades, delta-variant trades or building and bridge investments. Forgive me, though for comparing the company of Robinhood, with something that may stay special for a while vs. companies that get described as venerable, solid and built to last.

These companies are not rarities. You know people have to eat, right? You know that there would be famine without farming. So why not buy the stock of Agco (AGCO) , No. 2 farm equipment, which went from $40 to $130 in a year and a half without ever being expensive. Combines too boring? Again fine with me. Now that the masks are off -- or at least in some places, although Zoom (ZM) is still crushing it -- I, like many others, including my daughter, didn't like how her teeth looked even as, to me, they were perfect. Dentists tell you to get Align (ALGN) . I wanted them on "Mad Money" but the show was just too darned jammed. The stock's up the most in the S&P 500, with a product that, again, like the Purloined Letter, is right in front of you.

I love tech. Created the term FANG, added the "A" when it was clear that Apple (AAPL) had to take the acronymic stage between another "A" and an "N." I am proud that those who bet against me on Twitter, the legion, are betting against FAANG. I wrote obituaries for a goodly time in my career as a reporter but I never wrote as many as have been penned to talk about the group has already made the ultimate measure on behalf of shareholders.

Oh and it's not like I don't like tech or fin tech. I felt the slings and arrows of Facebook and PayPal today. Facebook's management once again lowered the boom on its future talking about real deceleration in growth. I thought it was too dire. PayPal's Dan Schulman talked about how the separation with its former partner, eBay (EBAY) gets done now and earnings will be hurt. This was one of the least revelatory surprises ever. I think both are practicing UPOD, Underpromising to Overdeliver, and, sure this time might be different, but it's sure been the way they have handled it in the past.

Far better to be in the straight out blow outs like Advance Micro (AMD) which had still one more banner day, this time because the company it is buying, the dowdy Xilinx (XLNX) , a sleepy semiconductor company, had tremendous earnings. The two together could be unassailable and even as AMD is now richly valued it is deservingly so.

I can't wait to hear Vlad Tenev's reflection on Robinhood's debut as a public company and about the novel offering that gave millions of shares to his clients. Vlad's not so much a rags to riches American story. He's a poor Bulgarian to insanely rich American because of his on ingenuity. That's a story with celebrating in itself.

I am simply pointing out that unlike Vlad, whom you would have had invested with when you weren't allowed or able to, Dave Gitlin sure didn't keep you out of the better bet, the stock of HVAC king Carrier.

You did.

【陸制裁對台軍售3美企！波音摔 工業ETF跌幅創1個月之最】

北京不滿美國對台軍售，週一宣布要制裁三家參與軍售的美國國防業者，包括波音的國防業務部門、洛克希德馬丁、雷神三家公司股價應聲下跌，美國工業股ETF更創一個月來的最大單日跌幅。

#道瓊工業指數以工業廠商為主

Exxon殞落，台塑集團請小心！
美國道瓊工業成分股再度調整成分股，這次三家進，三家出，最受矚目的是雲端運算產品服務公司Salesforce取代Exxon，Amgen替代Pfizer，Honeywell取代Raytheon，這其中最令人震驚的是Exxon石油被踢了出來。
從1928年以來，Exxon石油就是道瓊工業指數成份股的重量級王牌，2007年Exxon股價漲到100美元以上，市值一度達5250億美元，是全球巿值最大的企業。那個時候油價飆漲，最高漲到147美元，那時今周刊邀請末日博士麥嘉華來台演講，他預測油價會漲到300美元以上，那是石油盛世的時代。
2014年3月，我在今周刊的專欄寫到Exxon，那個時候，Apple市值達4817億成為市值之王，Google以3939億美元超越Exxon的3880億美元，Exxon在2014年仍然排在第三，現在剩下1720億美元，取代Exxon的Salesforce市值跑到2103.73億美元，從09年以來，股價大漲20倍。Salesforce成為微軟以外最突出的雲端服務公司。
從Exxon的殞落來看，石油及石化產業正面臨空前考驗，除了ESG的壓力，百年來石油產業經營模式創新有限，這次疫情重創航空，郵輪產業，油價期貨一度跌到負值，台塑四寶已有兩季出現虧損，王文淵最近又為ECFA請命，這些年倚重中國大陸市場的傳統產業都面臨經營壓力，台玻，寶成，正新輪胎都傳出虧損。台塑四寶的股價去年全面下跌，今年仍欲振乏力。中國大陸的中國石油剛剛公佈上半年虧損299.69億人民幣，中國石油股價從15.36跌到4.48人民幣，狀況也很慘烈。
這個全球石油及石化產業的百年衝擊正對著台塑集團迎面衝擊過來，從Exxon的殞落，過去半世紀以來，台灣產業的中流砥柱恐將遭受前所未有的撞撃！

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道瓊工業指數在北美時間8/24公佈組成股的更換，其中離開指數的公司為Raytheon Technologies, Pfizer and Exxon Mobil，而要加入的新成員為Amgen, Honeywell International, 以及 Salesforce.com.

Salesforce也會在北美時間今天來公佈財報，盤後交易更已經上漲將近10% ，最新第二季財報數據Salesforce營收來到$5.15 Billion 較去年同期增長29%。

股價幾乎來到歷史新高的Best Buy家電零售商今日公布今年Q2五月到七月財報，成績擊敗分析師預期，但因為整體Earnings Call中對未來預期仍然是比較保守，並沒有提出Earnings Outlook，今天開盤股價呈現下跌趨勢。

如果喜歡的話

歡迎幫我們分享和訂閱🙂

Beyond Meat自掛牌以來一直成為市場焦點，如今股價更瘋狂上漲，帶起了人造肉熱潮。但究竟是否值得長線投資？未來發展又會如何呢？股價還會再有突破嗎？今集 #贏在美股 會拆解Beyond Meat爆升500% 之謎。

喜歡我們影片的朋友，請按贊及分享。歡迎大家留言討論！

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