🌻另一個Zoom會議(第二次貼......有補上一些內容)
繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).
主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算基礎的估值會議)
主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment　(此為小揚的粉絲頁)
參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.
時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間９點.
預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問
進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)

🌻Morgan Stanley Mid-year Investor Outlook: A tricky transition

https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/midyear-2021-global-markets-outlook

🌻在您投資生涯中, 有沒有一些觀念讓您受用很多?
下面這位投資名人的好觀念影響我很深. 他的意思是, 一般投資人, 只要能説出三個買一家公司的理由, 就很夠了. 這也迫使我, 每次在買股票時, 問自己對這家公司的了解有多少. 也會去衡量公司的優點與缺點在哪裡.

"It is vital (重要的) that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks."

全文在此:
Jim Cramer: In Times Like This, Go for the Easy Money
Look at the stocks you own. Can you tell me why you've got them? If you can't answer the following three questions, then have a look at several I like right now.

We've endured the meme stock craziness, with all of its love for heavily shorted stocks. We have watched the collapse of bitcoin to levels viewed as shocking, even if they are still more than double where they were not that long ago. We've dealt with Fed officials making it clear that they are no longer on the side of the bulls or the bears. They are on the side of job growth, but are wary of inflation. We've seen the end of the rush to get vaccines, which means that millions of people are going to get the new COVID variant, because there is no natural immunity to it. We've watched as the hopes for an infrastructure bill have collapsed. We've endured shortages of everything from chips to plastic to imported goods and labor.

And we're still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Yep, we are in one of those halcyon moments, where the masks are off -- even if they shouldn't be -- and Americans are back doing what they do best: consume, spend, go out to eat and then consume and spend some more.

There are times in the stock market where the collective mindset is revealed. This is one of those times: Things are cool, it's not a big moment, there's no real news for a bit, it's the historically strong period and we can reach some conclusions about where we are.

When things are like this, it is important to remember that buyers like to revert to tried-and-true companies that thrive no matter what. These are companies that have an edge and are better at what they do than other companies.

You know that I am a great believer in index funds, that the average person doesn't have the time or the inclination to research individual stocks. It's a difficult barrier. I think you need to make time to read the quarterly report and listen to the conference call, to Google articles and, if possible, get some research about the companies you own. It is vital that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks. I am reminded by this, because, once again, without a mask, I can be recognized and if I am not holding "Nvidia the Second," I can carry on a conversation.

I have had many in the last two weeks and when I have asked this litany of questions, I find myself at a loss as to why almost no one knew what they owned. But they thirsted for individual stocks, because they, like me, think things are better post pandemic. No, that's not a facetious comment. Many, many stocks did better with a stay-at-home economy. A huge number.

So what do I do? I revert to what others do when you are stumped about how to stay in touch with stocks, but want to do less homework. That means buying stocks that are accessible, not stocks like Unity (U) or Snowflake (SNOW) or Twilio (TWLO) or Okta (OKTA) .

I revert to normal businesses people know and I suggest they Google some articles, peruse the conference call, but, above all, like the company's products so you can buy more if it goes down.

Here's some that I have been telling people I like:

First is Ford (F) . I think the Ford lineup is amazing. The electric F-150 series will be incredible. I am eager to get a Maverick for my family, because it is a smaller pickup that will get the job done for the myriad little things I need to do with this farm I bought from that crazy bitcoin foray. I like the competitive edge of the CEO, who says he is going to bury Elon Musk when the Lightning comes out. I even think the Bronco is cool as all get out. Most important, though? I think the chip shortage is ending. My semiconductor friends are telling me the foundries are producing more feature-rich chips and that means Ford can pump out the trucks small business people love and need. Plus, the used car prices at last have plateaued, according to their most important pricing index. Halcyon times.

Second, Costco (COST) : The samples are coming back. Tell me you don't love the samples. You need things in bulk. You want low prices. You want to get all of the things that people don't think of with Costco, like insurance, hearing-aids -- hey, they are a fortune -- jewelry, things around the house. You go and you will buy far more than you first came for. My kind of store.

The kids love this American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) , which we just bought for my charitable trust, which you can follow along by joining the Action Alerts PLUS club. Jay Schottenstein, the CEO, came on "Mad Money" recently and it's clear that his Aerie model has real staying power: 26 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. No flash in the pan, that one. Number one brand in jeans for the 15 to 25 year old group. The best in the mall. How did I know this? I see the credit card bills.

I got up this morning to do my physical therapy. I have been doing it ever since I hurt my back in February. I have this really cool pair of sneakers that fit me perfectly and I love them, but I am fortunate enough to have a vacation house and I am always taking those shoes with me.

So I went on Amazon (AMZN) this morning and lo and behold I saw them for half price. I bought two pairs. Then I went over everything I have bought in the last year and got a bunch of those things. Then I bought a pair of binoculars, because mine were stolen. I paid half price.

Yep, Amazon's universal. I was talking to Alexa, while I was ordering, getting some new music on, asking questions. I saw that despite all of the Sturm und Drang of Amazon being late with things, all the delivery dates were within range. I didn't click on any ads, and I didn't need the speed of Web Services, but the whole thing reminded me about how special the darned company is. I don't care if it's ahead or behind plan for the moment. I would just buy some more when it goes down.

Finally, Apple (AAPL) . I think people who don't own Apple should look what they are holding at this very moment. Yes, right now. Or look at what's in your lap or on the table besides your fork. And then think about the bill you paid last night without knowing it. Think about what you bought in the App store yesterday. Think about what would happen if it would break or get stolen or, left in the Uber (UBER) , or heaven forbid, be dropped into the pool or in the, yes, toilet.

There, that's what you buy in halcyon times. Stocks of companies you know that if they go lower, because things get less halcyon, you are fine with it and buy more. If things go up, believe me, you will participate.

So accept the moment. Don't try for the hard money. Go for the easy kind. That's the best kind.

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer--15692051

Picture: 牡丹(peony)花開. 恨不得院子裡有一塊地是牡丹園.

5月16日星期天，我在屏東有一場【非要「缺電」？ 】座談會。
電的專有名詞。電是什麼？電的單位是什麼？ 什麼是「缺電」？「停電」？「跳電」？ 如果不知道電的單位，如何知道缺電？ 缺多少電？什麼時候缺電？ 現在台灣有多少發電設備？有多少發電能力？ 「缺電」對誰有什麼好處？ 台灣電廠真多，真的不缺電！ 日期：2021年05月16日(星期日)，早上9:00-12:00 地點：綠書坊（屏東市台糖街39號，屏東市公所旁） 報名網址：https://forms.gle/ah6JatdVXQvPwT5C9 主持人：洪輝祥(屏東環盟前理事長)

歡迎朋友路過來討論，要來踼館也歡迎！

以下是我會談論的一部份，「#用建構式數學解構缺電謊言」
======
第一次在美國百貨公司買東西，身上只有百元大鈔，我買了22元95分的東西，店員找我錢時，並不是找77元5分，而是先拿了5分，嘴裡唸到23元，然後再拿1元的美鈔給我，口中唸到24元，再加一張1元，唸到25元，再加1張5元，唸到30元，再拿1張10元，唸到40元，再拿1張10元，唸到50元，再拿1張10元，念到60元，再拿1張20元，唸到80元，再拿1張20元，唸到100元，然後說Thank you.

我當時想，這美國大嬸怎麼這麼慢，但是他們很多人是用信用卡，用現金的不多，百元大鈔的更少，而美國人都是這麼找零錢的，哪怕是用10元買2.25元的東西，也是拿出3個quarters（2毛5分錢）1個個加到3元，再拿2張1元，加到5元，再用1張張1元，加上10元。

看起來很笨，但不會出錯，而且當著顧客的面點數錢鈔，銀貨兩訖，不容易發生多找或少找的爭議。

美國的找錢方法，就是建構式數覺的典範，其實「建構式數學（Reform Mathmetics）」的翻譯有點問題，應該是相對於「傳統式數學」的「改革式數學」。傳統數學重視心算、標準答案，所以我們小時候會「背」加法、「背」九九乘法表，默唸、默記是算術的主要技能，重點是要快速找到正確答案。而改革式的則是講求理解、分析、討論，找出答案，而答案未必是「正確答案」，而著重於解答過程的學習。

我們面對「缺電」，台電總是說我們電不夠，夏季來得早，我們用電量大，尖峰用電量創高峰，…… 所以我們缺電。

這就像老師告訴我們九九乘法表，九九七十四，我們就「以為」9x9=74，而不去思考，9乘9是把9個9加在一起，9是10少1，所以9個10是90，少了9個1，所以應該是81才對，為什麼台電老師的答案少了8呢？

所以當台電說，我們有4900萬瓩的裝置容量。你會不知道到哪裡去了，因為4900萬瓩，是多少？沒有印象，「裝置容量」是專有名詞，聽起來很專業，但不知道是什麼意思。

但是我說我們最大的「發電功率是49GW」，你就比較容易掌握到這數的概念。

49GW的發電功率是如何建構起來的？就有水、火、核、再生能源（太陽、風、地熱）、汽電共生等加起來。

但是在經濟部能源局在去年12月底公布的「裝置容量」是57GW，奇怪？怎麼會差了8GW，我們來解構經濟部、台電的發電廠數據，發現少了8GW的汽電共生，台電只承認0.6GW的垃圾焚化爐的發電，卻不承認汽電共生系統設置管理法「外掛」的8GW。

台電說，這是民營企業的自用電，不能算進他們的裝置容量，但是依照能源管理法、汽電共生系統設置辦法，和台電與汽電共生簽訂的合約，這些汽電共生發的電，是必須接受台電調度的。也就是他們在台電需要電時，就要供約定的量，當台電因安全因素不需要電時，就不用他們的電。

所以我們在台電公布汽電共生的這個欄中，沒有發電的來源，就含混的一欄「汽電共生」，而往往是超過1GW的發電功率，這代表「超發」的顯然是其他汽電共生系統供應的。

又有人說（如莊秉潔）說，汽電共生都是用煤的，所以很髒，我們應該反對汽電共生。但是我們再來解構這些話，是有問題的。因為汽電共生系統，是利用製程的廢熱拿來產生蒸氣，推動渦輪發電。

這就像養豬吃餿水很髒，豬糞尿也很髒，所以我們應該反對沼氣發電？

沼氣發電的出身是來自豬糞尿，但是就是既有的污染，我們可以用來發電，替代額外的石化燃料（煤、天然氣），所以是「綠能」。

在國際上，利用合法、高效能的汽電共生發電，都被當成聯合國UNFCCC的減碳方法論，竟成為台灣環工學者口中的「燃煤發電」，如果他是對的，應該可以得到諾貝爾化學獎了。

我們不能只聽政府、專家缺電的「鐵口直斷」，他們顯然是為了缺電而缺電，為了某些政治、利益而對大眾洗腦。

我們應該清醒的解構台灣的發電機組，分門別類，一個個拿出來算，重新建構起來，我們就不難發現，台灣的電廠其實太多了，即使以今天的電廠去除核電，未來10年都不用節電，都都多得多。

【每日國際選讀】
#文末挑戰多益選擇題📝
疫情加抗議，美國真的失控了？
開啟「接收通知」和「搶先看」每天吸收雙語時事新知
來讀華爾街日報獨家


🔥 Americans Are More Troubled by Police Actions in Killing of George Floyd Than by Violence at Protests, Poll Finds
民調結果顯示，比起抗議活動中的暴力，美國人對警察殺害喬治．弗洛伊德事件更感不安


🧐 Voters by a 2-to-1 margin are more troubled by the actions of police in the killing of George Floyd than by violence at some protests, and an overwhelming majority, 80%, feel that the country is spiraling out of control, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.
《華爾街日報》和NBC News的一項新調查顯示，比對抗議中的暴力行為，美國人對警察導致喬治．佛洛伊德死亡的行為更感不安，人數高達一倍，且絕大多數（80%）的受訪者都認為美國正在失控。

- by a 2-to-1 margin 二比一/另一者兩倍的意思
- be troubled by 深受…折磨
- overwhelming 難以抵擋的；無法抗拒的
- spiraling （形勢）急劇惡化
- out of control 失控


😨 The poll also reveals striking partisan divides in how voters view a pair of unfolding national crises, including the unrest sparked by the killing of Mr. Floyd, the black Minneapolis man who was in police custody, and the coronavirus pandemic, responsible for more than 109,000 fatalities in the U.S.
調查還顯示，美國人對於當前的兩件全國性危機有著明顯的黨派分歧，即黑人男子佛洛伊德因警察逮捕致死所引發的後續騷亂，以及導致美國逾10.9萬人死亡的新冠疫情大流行。

- partisan （常指盲目）支持的，擁護的；偏袒的
- unrest 不安，動盪
- fatality 死亡人數


🚨 Nearly three-quarters of Democrats, 74%, said it may take the next year or even longer to curb Covid-19 and return to work as normal. By contrast, among President Trump’s strongest supporters within the Republican Party, 32% said the coronavirus is already contained.
近四分之三（74%）的民主黨受訪者表示，要遏制冠狀病毒並使工作恢復正常，可能需要花上明年一年甚至更長的時間。反之，共和黨內的川普支持者中，則有32% 表示新冠疫情已得到控制。

- Democrats 民主黨員
- curb 約束；抑制
- contained 得到控制、抑制

未完待續...
究竟這樣的失控
對川普的選情是否帶來衝擊？
加入文末每日國際選讀計畫，解鎖完整語音導讀版

——
原文連結請看留言
——

❓❓多益模擬題❓:
The government should act to ____ the spread of coronavirus before the pandemic went _________.

🙋🏻‍♀️🙋🏼‍♀️
A. curd/ out of control
B. cure/ out of the way
C. curb / out of control


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