5個重點看懂美股大盤

1) 上禮拜納指和標普都有不錯的漲幅。兩個指數短線都是看5天線，繼續守住短線就還能創新高。一旦失守5天線，納指要看15000大關和50天線支撐，標普同樣是看50天線。要是從現價位置回調到50天線會蠻遠的，這也是我一直說的短線回調風險。

2）成長股整個禮拜表現很好，很多以前的成長股leader都開始轉強。ARK核心持倉pltr u tsla 趨勢都不錯。

3）羅素2000（IWM）接近歷史高點，羅素2000成長（IWO）早前也突破了下降壓力線。這個禮拜繼續關注成長股走勢。預計羅素2000（IWM）會在歷史高點前做震盪整理。

4）由於中小股開始好轉，美股市寬也有明顯好轉。納指成分股中股價在50天線已經的比例回到50%以上，這是健康的市寬水平。之前只有大型科技股在拉指數，那種市寬則不健康。

5) 考慮到近期個股經常突破失敗，應該多採用在pullback buy (在支撐區反彈）。最好要看到有大成交量配合，這樣能提升勝率，也能增加買入的信心。

---------------------------------------------
會員學習空間，幫助你學習和看懂股市，詳細請按這裡
https://www.facebook.com/100063549497437/posts/174167468044902/?extid=0&d=n
---------------------------------------------
強勢股大漲前都漲這樣？杯柄型態Cup with handle教學
影片連結：https://bit.ly/39jkM8v
---------------------------------------------
IG: instagram.com/spring_invest/
Youtube: https://bit.ly/2G4xBHY
Telegram群：https://t.me/joinchat/AAAAAFjFOeSbxz8d_KP8UA
---------------------------------------------
本資料僅提供參考，投資時應審慎評估！不對非特定人推薦買賣任何指數或股票買賣點位，投資請務必獨立思考操作，任何損失概與本頻道、本專頁、本人無責。

#美股 #投資理財 #理財 #投資 #股票 #股票投資 #港股策略王 #台股 #台積電 #特斯拉 #蘋果 #appleiphone #iphone13 #iphone12

🌻風險管理

跌了幾十趴的個股還要繼續抱下去嗎? 去年飆漲的SPAC, 今年還漲的回來嗎?(可以跟下篇一起看).

開始玩成長股後, 我學到最難的一堂課是風險控制. 每個人對風險控制的觀念不一樣, 這跟每個人的心理素質也有關係.

風險管理, 也就是"留得青山在, 不怕沒柴燒".

風險管理:
https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86

🌻There Are Too Many Defenseless(無防禦性的) Stocks
(可以的話, 我希望您可以好好讀一下這篇文章. 我希望能夠幫您守住些財富, 減少些損失, 甚至創造些獲利. "Too many", 也就代表了股票沒有稀有性)

The underwriters just created too many stocks. There's too many new companies, too many companies that help you with analytics(分析), too many that offer video, too many data collectors and too many real-time analysis, and too many cybersecurity companies. There's been too many new electric vehicle derivatives, too many cannabis (大麻) plays and way too many new fintechs(金融科技).

The effect? We are now facing a bewildering number of companies that simply do the same things and can't be differentiated (無差異性的) and, frankly, are too hard to understand unless you are deeply involved in the transfer of data from on your premises to the cloud(雲端).

Why does this matter?

Because these stocks are defenseless. They are defenseless against inflation (通膨) because so many of them sell at a multiple to sales and any company that trades as a multiple to sales (指的是以P/S為估值方式, 非傳統的P/E. 軟體公司主要是用P/S) will see its value erode more quickly than any other in this stock market because the company has to graduate from a multiple to sales to a multiple of earnings, or just keep losing money. So many new investors have not experienced real inflation where these kinds of stocks can't be given away.

They are defenseless against an economic boom. I have been reading through countless software as a whatever with a go to market strategy and a huge TAM (total addressable market, 指的是市場大小) to land and expand(指的是雲端公司的商業模式), and my eyes glaze over. Who needs a company with all of those buzzwords that's growing at 27% and losing money when I have plenty of high quality industrials that are growing at 27% and spewing cash to the point the biggest issue is how much should be put to growth versus rewarding shareholders.

They are defenseless against older companies with a balanced policy toward dividends and buybacks, so that supply is mopped up while demand is bolstered by a yield. The land and expanders don't have anything backing them up which makes them vulnerable to sudden shocks down as we have seen.

They are defenseless against insider selling. If capital gains rates are going up, these are the companies with the most vulnerable stocks because so many of the people in these new companies have stocks that are still up substantially from when they got stock so a company with a stock down 30%-40% is vulnerable from scads of insider selling, including secondaries I am now expecting with increasing frequency.

They are defenseless against SPACs. While there are many good SPACs there are too many SPACs with too much stock sloshing around. I keep thinking about that MP Materials (MP) secondary offering in late March, where entities controlled by CEO James Litinsky sold 4.6 million shares of his company in a deal priced at $35. Now it is a small percentage of his holdings and many others involved with the company sold small amounts, too. That's not the point. It's more of a statement: this stock traded at $50. You might have been inclined to buy on the pullback but you would have been massacred as the stock is now at $27. If you have a so-called successful SPAC its success might be measured by how much money you took out of it before its stock fell by 50%. There are hundreds of things and when you consider all of the warrants out there, you know this market is going to be overwhelmed with this stuff.

You aren't going to see these kinds of secondaries at Deere (DE) or Caterpillar (CAT) , that's for certain.

Now there are people out there willing to buy the incredibly almost stupidly risky stocks, people like Cathie Wood, who demonstrated her unflappable conviction to her method of buying stocks that worked when there's scarcity value but there's anything but that now.

Maybe she can take down tens of billions of dollars worth and save the day. I wouldn't count on it. I am sorry to question her stock picking, lord knows she's been amazing. But unless others copy her, we know the stocks she is buying resemble what's not working at all. Maybe someday, but not now.

I try to figure out what the end game for these stocks might be if the economy keeps heating up and inflation accelerates. There's simply not enough money from young people or ETFs based on high growth or Cathie Wood to keep these stocks higher, and there's too much opportunity for the insiders to do what MP did, something that crunched the stock even as it reported a quarter ahead of expectations, which meant something at one point but means absolutely nothing now. Nothing at all.

文章來源: https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer-there-are-too-many-defenseless-stocks-15649142

Picture來源:
https://society6.com/product/boxing-cat_print

[本周(week of 03/01~03/07)的15個分享]

最近滑雪, 開始挑戰難度較高的坡道(下圖中箭頭處. 聽朋友說, 要是在別的地方, 這坡道應該算是黑色鑽石等級的了), 著實感受到了前所未有的速度感(⚡️閃電麥坤: "Speed. I am speed"), 也發現膽子變大了(不知道這是好事還是壞事......)

Anyways. 下面是一些我這星期看到的好文以及想法. 我想以後就試試看這樣做彙整好了......這樣雖然這邊的貼文少了, 但(希望)內容還是算豐富.

☘️好文分享
1. Howard Marks的最新memo: Nobody Knows II (by Howard Marks)
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/nobody-knows-ii.pdf?fbclid=IwAR2hCNJcfZ_VBMLp0YyPjFOhBn7DY32BcpQ-HLXSVVivC2QC7SVn6F4Zqic

2. 分享這篇文章沒特別意思。只是發現一句他很有名的話, 原來是從這篇文章出來的。
也覺得整篇文章寫的真好。供參。
https://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html
(Hint: 這是巴菲特於2008在紐約時報發表的文章)

3. 陳喬泓 投資法則的一則貼文有提到下面一段, 我覺得挺好:
"在書中，普萊斯提出成長股一個最重要概念「生命周期投資理論」，他指出公司經歷的生命周期跟人類的生命周期相似，兩種生命周期都有三個重要階段：成長、成熟、衰頹。"

☘️財報結果
4. 有興趣的群友也可以研究參考Splunk(SPLK). 今天看了一下財報, 其實沒甚麼大問題, 很多分析師還說good job.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3549490-splunk-bull-sees-long-term-growth-overblown-pullback

5. 我這週在ZM發報財報後, 也整理了一下季報結果:
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2020/03/zoom-zm-fy2020-q4.html

☘️關於疫情
6. 東西兩岸蔓延速度都相當快......請住兩岸的群友以及家人們小心
"New York state coronavirus cases triple over 48 hours to 33, thousands under ‘precautionary quarantine"

7. 最近看到越來越多這樣的新聞, 不用我多說了, Zoom(ZM)應該已經被討論到爛了.

"计算机领域年会ASPLOS 2020宣布取消，微软MVP峰会改为线上召开。脸书和谷歌取消了各自年度最大开发者大会。周一，推特宣布对4500名员工实施“在家办公”。周二晚间至周三，谷歌、脸书、Indeed等公司先后宣布允许员工在家工作，禁止外来人员访问，取消非必要活动和访问，面试也改为视讯会议形式进行。"

我這週在ZM發報財報後, 也整理了一下季報結果:
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2020/03/zoom-zm-fy2020-q4.html

8. 這周很多跟consumers有關的公司會發表財報.
感覺巴菲特的KR在最近買, 時間點還真不錯....

9. 7天流失市值2320億元 微軟可低接
https://bit.ly/2I9EWn9

☘️關於總經
10. 橋水避險基金Ray Dalio冠狀病毒的想法
https://www.facebook.com/yu.lichun.9/posts/4174904225869096

11. Cramer：除非Fed能創造疫苗 否則降息根本沒差
https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4447584

☘️關於管理
12. 有Twitter CEO的新聞. 股友們聊到感性的CEO. 這是我的想法:
也看過一本書說, 因為腦部運作的關係, 決策者很難情理並用. 所以Disney的CEO才很難得(有同理心, 又能夠理性做決定.)

Twitter is being targeted by an activist shareholder seeking to replace Jack Dorsey:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/29/tech/elliott-twitter-jack-dorsey-replace/index.html

☘️貓的碎念
13. 股友談起了成長股, 這是我的想法:
成長股並不一定是夢想股(意是本益比很高很高的個股). 夢想股除非是基本面夠強, 要不然不適合在這種時刻加碼或是買進, 甚至這種時候苗頭不對就要很快撤掉. 因為資金從這種個股會撤的很快.

在一個未知的領域, 成長股才會給人本夢比的印象. 很多時候, 連CEO都是在對未來做假設, 然後小心驗證.

其實成長股投資人很需要想像力.

14. 有股友想要開粉絲頁, 介紹股票, 順便進步. 這是我給他的建議: "建議去seeking alpha或是雪球. 池塘比較大. You need to be a small fish in a big pond.......in this way, you can learn faster. "

☘️實用美股工具
15. 現在Yahoo! Finance上面, 可以看到好幾年的估值數字了:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/key-statistics?p=MSFT

#股票新手 #股票入門 #股票技術分析

#台股技術分析小教室 | EP3 | #經典交易策略 | S/R 支撐與壓力 #小路金融實戰

金融市場當中的股價常常到了一個位置下跌的動能就會趨緩，或者是到了相對高點的地方就馬上有賣壓出籠，這些其實就是所謂的「支撐與壓力」！在這集，小路要來跟大家分享經典的支撐與壓力策略，想要把握關鍵的多空反轉位置的投資人可要好好觀看影音囉♥♥♥

在這個影片當中你會學到...
‣‣ 經典交易策略 Support & Resistance
‣‣ 實際範例演示
‣‣ 兩種 S/R 支撐與壓力策略

▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
【#台股技術分析小教室系列影片】
EP1 | #經典進場策略 | PULLBACK回檔進場 #小路金融實戰
👉https://youtu.be/J3rcg3wQ31A

EP2 | #經典進場策略 | BREAKOUT突破交易 #小路金融實戰
👉https://youtu.be/bvWESOHwuQ0
▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
🔥喜歡小路的影片歡迎按讚、訂閱加上分享🔥
並且在下方留言你感興趣的主題，小路會視狀況拍攝影音呦！
謝謝大家！
▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
▶︎ 訂閱我的頻道打開小鈴鐺，第一時間通知你影音更新◀︎

📌Facebook 臉書粉絲專頁【小路投資日記】https://www.facebook.com/lewisatstock
📌Instagram 粉絲專頁【小路金融實戰】
https://www.instagram.com/lewis.invest
📌Telegram Channel
https://t.me/lewisatstock

📬合作邀約：Lewis945@opasgroup.com

#股票新手 #股票入門 #股票技術分析

#股票新手 #股票入門 #股票技術分析

#台股技術分析小教室 | EP2 | 經典進場策略 | BREAKOUT突破交易 #小路金融實戰

金融市場當中的進場訊號，可以簡單分為突破買進與拉回買進，在這一系列的內容當中，小路要來跟大家分享經典的交易策略，上一級的內容跟大家分享回檔進場PULLBACK策略，而EP2要帶大家認識的是突破進場的訊號BREAKOUT，想要跟著動能一起上車機會的投資人可要好好觀看影音囉♥♥♥

在這個影片當中你會學到...
‣‣ 經典進場策略 BREAKOUT
‣‣ 實際範例演示
‣‣ 兩種BREAKOUT策略介紹

▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
🔥喜歡小路的影片歡迎按讚、訂閱加上分享🔥
並且在下方留言你感興趣的主題，小路會視狀況拍攝影音呦！
謝謝大家！
▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
▶︎ 訂閱我的頻道打開小鈴鐺，第一時間通知你影音更新◀︎

📌Facebook 臉書粉絲專頁【小路投資日記】https://www.facebook.com/lewisatstock
📌Instagram 粉絲專頁【小路金融實戰】
https://www.instagram.com/lewis.invest
📌Telegram Channel
https://t.me/lewisatstock

📬合作邀約：Lewis945@opasgroup.com

#股票新手 #股票入門 #股票技術分析

#股票新手 #股票入門 #股票技術分析

#台股技術分析小教室 | EP1 | 經典進場策略 | PULLBACK回檔進場 #小路金融實戰

金融市場當中的進場訊號，可以簡單分為突破買進與拉回買進，在這一系列的內容當中，小路要來跟大家分享經典的交易策略，而EP1要帶大家認識的是小路在盤後影音常提及的拉回找買點，也就是回檔進場的策略PULLBACK，想要把握拉回進場機會的投資人可要好好觀看影音囉♥♥♥

在這個影片當中你會學到...
‣‣ 經典進場策略 PULLBACK
‣‣ 實際範例演示
‣‣ 兩種PULLBACK策略介紹

▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
🔥喜歡小路的影片歡迎按讚、訂閱加上分享🔥
並且在下方留言你感興趣的主題，小路會視狀況拍攝影音呦！
謝謝大家！
▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
▶︎ 訂閱我的頻道打開小鈴鐺，第一時間通知你影音更新◀︎

📌Facebook 臉書粉絲專頁【小路投資日記】https://www.facebook.com/lewisatstock
📌Instagram 粉絲專頁【小路金融實戰】
https://www.instagram.com/lewis.invest
📌Telegram Channel
https://t.me/lewisatstock

📬合作邀約：Lewis945@opasgroup.com

#股票新手 #股票入門 #股票技術分析