小帮手：

【云剧场🤩线上观剧】✨✨✨
✨Cloud Theatre, enjoy theatre online!✨

🌟星音符为您诚意打造《红楼梦》话剧，根据史实与原著改编
——让您深刻体验古典名著的艺术魅力🤩13场演出场场满座，好评如潮！

💝演出购票处 Cloud Theatre ：
https://www.cloudtheatre.com/my/shows/the-bream-of-red-mansions/
此次在云剧场上演，票券收入100%捐作抗疫物资❤️

🌹中国古代四大名著之首《红楼梦》话剧🌹
💥必看10大重点💥
✨《红楼梦》在大马首度以话剧演出
✨《红楼梦》根据史实和原著改编
✨知名艺人锺洁希与多位资深演员同台，演员阵容多达26人
✨男主角为全球万里挑一的林霆坚，为寻找贾宝玉剧组发动了全球《寻找贾宝玉》的活动
✨最新3D科技绝美LED背景视觉影像
✨星音符特邀美籍音乐制作人为《红楼梦》话剧操刀，由女主角锺洁希演唱插曲《黑夜将残的炉光》，并与男主角林霆坚深情对唱主题曲《心念》
✨逼真的音效与专业背景音乐配搭
✨精致的古风道具布置
✨精美雅致大气有诚意的古代服装
✨《红楼梦》话剧票券收入100%捐作抗疫物资

🌷由锺洁希领衔主演女主角——出淤泥而不染的林黛玉，💘男主角为全球万里挑一，犹如贾宝玉再现的——林霆坚。为您演绎一场刻骨铭心、至真至爱、荡气回肠的爱情故事❤

📅演出日期：
🤩『第一场』18/09/2021 (六) 8:00p.m. (GMT+8) 【供48小时内观看】
🤩『第二场』27/09/2021 (一) 8:00p.m. (GMT+8) 【供48小时内观看】

🗨 [ 此剧语言为中文，备有中英文字幕]
📲【询问联络】03-55690139 (Ann) https://bit.ly/3yyzYJk

《红楼梦》话剧——谁为情种？
❤眼空蓄泪泪空垂，暗洒闲抛却为谁~

Cloud Theatre, enjoy theatre online! ✨✨✨
The play “The Dream of Red Mansions” was met with overwhelming response, selling out tickets to 13 full houses!

Ticketing platform: Cloud Theatre
https://www.cloudtheatre.com/my/shows/the-bream-of-red-mansions/
🤩100% of the proceeds from the tickets will be donated as Covid-19 medical supplies. Together, let’s do our part and show our love!

🌹 “The Dream of Red Mansions”, an adaptation of the most celebrated classical Chinese novel! 🌹
💥10 reasons why you must watch: 💥
✨This marks the first public performance of the stage play “The Dream of Red Mansions” in Malaysia.
✨ “The Dream of Red Mansions” is based on the original historical novel.
✨Well-known artist Jessie Chung takes the stage with 26 experienced actors.
✨Lead actor Terry Lim, a one-in-a-million actor who portrays Jia Baoyu, was chosen through a worldwide search for a Jia Baoyu lookalike.
✨Stage backdrops created through the latest 3D technology for stunning, lifelike environments.
✨Symphony Theatre invited an American composer to create the soundtrack for “The Dream of Red Mansions,” while lead actress Jessie Chung performed the soundtrack song “A Dying Light in the Dark” and the theme song, “Hearts Apart”—an emotional duet—with lead actor Terry Lim.
✨Accompanied by realistic sound effects and professional background music.
✨Stage design incorporates exquisite ancient Chinese elements and props.
✨Actors wear elegant, refined, majestic and authentic period costumes.
✨100% of the proceeds from the tickets will be donated as Covid-19 medical supplies. Together, let’s do our part and show our love!

🌷Jessie Chung takes the stage as lead actress, portraying the pure and unadulterated Lin Daiyu, while Terry Lim, the lead actor, was chosen out of a ton of applicants from around the world. Come and enjoy a performance of an unforgettable, passionate, and heart-rending love story.

📅Performance Dates:
🤩 First performance:
Saturday, September 18, 2021, 8:00 p.m. (GMT+8)

🤩 Second performance:
Monday, September 27, 2021, 8:00 p.m. (GMT+8)

🗨 (Performed in Mandarin, with Mandarin and English subtitles available.)
📲 Contact us: 03-55690139 (Ann) https://bit.ly/3yyzYJk

“The Dream of Red Mansions,” calling all lovers…❤
“Vain are all these idle tears, tears shed secretly—for whom?”

[首航運送］各方善長請注意：

有鑒於這次由駐港尼泊爾領事館監督的籌款，尼泊爾政府已授權尼泊爾非居民協會（“NRNA”）處理我們提供的醫療援助物資，以確保物資送抵之後，不會被徵收關稅。

在此之前，不少慈善團體（尤其是宗教團體）送到尼泊爾的物資，都遇到不少困難，當中一項就是關稅。沒有官方的認證，尼泊爾政府會假定所有進口貨品，都有機會被人轉售牟利，所以一定會徵收關稅。

為確保大家捐助的物資，會完完整整送到受助人的手上，必須要有官方保證，才可以順利過關。

有關 NRNA 的更多信息，請瀏覽 www.nrna.org.np 網站。

我們很高興地宣布，由 Mr. Yem Gurung 和何猷彪先生捐贈的第一批 450 40 L 氧氣瓶將於下週通過 Kodari Tatopani 海關運往加德滿都。陸運貨物預計從製造工廠到尼泊爾邊境需要5-6天。此批貨運亦包括依據尼泊爾政府旳要求而 製造的氧氣瓶規格，同時亦包括詳細說明書 解釋閥門轉換方法。

上述貨物將交給 NRNA 接收和盡快安排分配，資料會保存在 NRNA 的資產管理系統內。

何猷彪和 Mr. Y Gurung 在尼泊爾駐港領事館的協助下執行此次試運。如果一切順利，日後「香港退伍軍人聯會」和他們的合作團隊將會安排其他物資遵循第一批貨物開闢的路徑運送。

該項目保證會處理妥當，不會發生濫用職權或貪污賄賂。NRNA主席 Mr. Kumar Panta Ji 已親自回覆保證妥善處理和分發物資，並誠意感謝何猷彪先生、「香港香港退伍軍人聯會」、Mr. Y Gurung、香港尼泊爾駐港領事館和香港市民的鼎力支援。

謝謝大家。

Please be advised that The Government of Nepal has authorised Non-Resident Nepali Association ("NRNA") to handle the medical aid supplied by the foreign companies/organisations. Please visit the website: www.nrna.org.np for more information of NRNA.

We are pleased to announce the 1st shipment of 450 40 L Oxygen Cylinders, sponsored by Mr Yem Gurung and Mr Sean Hotung will travel via Tatopani Customs (Kodari) to Kathmandu next week. The land cargo estimated time will be 5-6 days from the factory to the Nepal border. The specification of Oxygen Cylinders and valve conversion method to match requirements in Nepal are part of the shipment.


The handover of the above mentioned consignment will be made to the NRNA for receiving and arranging the swift and efficient distribution of these cylinders and kept under the Asset Management System of NRNA.

Mr Hotung and Mr Y Gurung, with the help of the HK Nepali Consulate, are executing this trial run. If all proceeds accordingly, HKESA, together with their partners will follow the trail opened by the first shipment.

It is noted it has been made abundantly clear that there is to be no mishandling, no misuse and no corruption associated with this project. In reply, President Kumar Panta Ji of the NRNA, has given his personal assurance of the proper handling and distribution in conjunction with extending his deep thanks to Mr Ho, the HKESA, Mr Y. Gurung, the Nepali Consulate of Hong Kong, and the people of Hong Kong.

Fundraising link:

English donation link:

https://www.fringebacker.com/en/projects/covid-19-spiral-out-of-control-in-nepal/

中文捐款連結：

https://www.fringebacker.com/zh-tw/projects/covid-19-spiral-out-of-control-in-nepal/

［拜登97%機會做總統！］之但係，李斯特城都拎英超啦。肯唔止33倍。

TLDR：如果侵侵當選，就係比2016更大大大嘅奇蹟了。「不過螞蟻都上市撻Q啦」，2020奇事還會少？

另外，冇時間嘅，應該真係只睇Florida就夠。拜登贏到嘅，應該可熄電視，當選無誤。侵侵贏到嘅，就仲有55波。之後再睇賓洲，結論同上。而另一看點可能係民主黨突襲Texas成功（民調民主黨在Texas當然大落後，但，「民調都好信？」）

1. Pole Position，中文我都唔知點譯，內圈？摸到杯耳？袋咗半隻盃落袋？但總之，Economist話，「拜登好大好大機會」。有幾大？根據佢地嘅Stat Model，係97%！咁當然，3%都會發生，正如1%都會發生。另一網站FiveThirtyEight（亦係Stat Model），畀嘅機會，係拜登90%。但不忘提返，「即係好似洛杉磯落雨咁」—洛杉磯一年大約36日落雨呀，咪10%機會。咁你係咪即時覺得10%好似都幾高？人嘅認知係好奇怪的。呢個同教育，智商等等冇乜關係，係人嘅天性，同人腦構造。

2. 講返，近幾個月我聽得最多嘅，當然係「民調都好信？」，或其變種「挑！民調都好信？」，或其變變種，「屌！民調都好信！」。講出嚟真係堅型。不過亦介紹返，Economist同FiveThirtyEight嘅，根本唔係民調，唔該唔好睇錯台。咁所以下一句係，「咁2016有冇中丫」？至於啲model嘅 methodology，只有少數學棍（例如我）先會去睇（https://bityl.co/4IIW）。Even「學者」好多都唔會睇—因為好多社科學者嘅數學水平，都係比較低。

3. 咁當然亦都介紹返，4年前Economist選舉前夕出嘅文，題為「Hillary Clinton has got this. Probably. Very probably」（https://bityl.co/4II3）。不過4年前佢地未有自己嘅model，都係睇New York Times民調，賭盤，同埋Nate Silver嘅FiveThirtyEight（記住都係Stat model）．當年固然全部炒車，但，最準，或者話錯得冇咁離普嘅，始終係FiveThirtyEight嘅Stat model。當然有人認為，錯就係錯，估33%同估3%冇分別—但明顯唔係咁。你賭過錢就知。影響我覺得個賠率抵唔抵摶

4. 另外亦有數據做過，賭盤同民調，準繩度所差無幾，唔好以為「真金白銀」就代表準啲。你買幾多先？另外，估「球星轉會」「諾貝爾和平獎」之類，實有內幕消息，至少有人知得多啲，會自動調節到個賠率。但選舉？選嗰班都唔知自己點。

5. 但講返，根據佢地嗰套model，今次侵侵就更加凶險。當然上次可以against odds，唔代表今次唔得—但今次更加難咁解。即係上次等於你首回合作客輸0-5返主場，今次等於你首回合主場輸7-0然後作客咁上下？總之，更難

6. 張圖嘅presentation 幾好，model或民調或乜，當然有誤差範圍（否則唔使選）。2016的確出嚟同啲model估爭得有啲遠，特別在游離洲，亦都因為美國行選舉人票制就特別難估。呢個圖話你知，而家拜登有嘅優勢比當年希拉莉更大。即使照樣出返2016嘅polling error，拜登都仲能夠輕鬆取勝。你可以理解為「今次我帶住7球在手唔怕你好似上次咁入返6球」「咁當然你入夠10球都得嘅」。

7. 根據佢地套 model，侵侵最初（年頭）勝算係高過拜登（所以好撚心唔好話人針對侵侵），3月尾後就急瀉，原因當然係肺炎。打後好似發生好多事，但佢地認為根本冇改變大局。BLM又好，辯論又好，影響不大，如有影響就係令侵侵勝算更低云云。

8. 佢地當然亦有講，點解「2016唔會重演」。首先游離票少咗，好少人仲未決定。另外今次拜登嘅民調（對，model都有計入民調，但不等於民調）穩定過希拉莉好多，亦都冇咁叮噹馬頭互換位置。當然帶離嘅距離亦都多過希拉莉好多。「即係拎住7球在手」「史上無人試過咁樣都輸」「當然歷史係用嚟破的」

9. 總結，學下英文： On the eve of the election, Mr Trump has only a small chance of winning if all the ballots are counted. If the polls are even remotely right, and the processing and counting of ballots proceeds without interference, he is likely to become America’s latest one-term president.

10. 我當然信呢套嘢（否則就係「挑！民調都好信？」啦）。但亦只係依書直說。侵侵選到嘅，我唔會覺得有乜乜已死（過去四年咪又係咁生活，股市升唔少添！）。不過班統計學者唔知點自圓其說以後點搵食。所以都係high stake game

11. 至於我嘅睇法，在明報專欄已講過。若真係中就再講下，唔中就……都可以檢討下嘅。（https://bityl.co/4IHr）。唯一留意嘅係，除咗睇總統，仲要睇參議院（眾議院就應該唔使睇）。另外，介紹返，侵侵在位四年，滬深300指數升咗5成，應該跑贏絶大多數指數，甚至勁過道指，同標指平手，只係不及納指。而所謂侵侵十分強硬嘅呢兩年，舊年滬深300升三成幾，今年都升一成幾。凡事唔係咁表面，股票嘅嘢唔係直線邏輯。

12. 聽日應該會同大家livescore，但都係記住，股票呢，一般嚟講都係升嘅。即使係contested，玩到戈爾對布殊咁（嗰年當然股市大跌），甚至有人唔認輸都好，我都冇驚過。

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Ivan Patreon，港美市場評點，專題號外，每日一圖，好文推介。一個月一舊水唔使，三個月已近700人訂！仲有免費試睇：https://bit.ly/31QmYj7
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instagram @ivanliresearch．七成金融（短打）兩成嘢食一成其他嘢。

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【李聲揚課程】題目:「美國大選全攻略」 影片/課程編號：CC011 費用: $400

由基本嘢講起，邊個會贏，民調準唔準，幾時有結果，冇乜時間嘅睇邊幾個洲。仲有邊個黨對股市好，侵侵連任股市又點，拜登上台又點。咩時間買。同埋最重要，買乜股。

出售平台(有埋影片簡介)：https://bityl.co/4FHC
付款及收看步驟：
1/點擊報名收看 [影片/課程編號：CC011
2/利用信用卡網上付款
3/及後有登入資料可以立即收看
查詢：whatsapp 63832145