李開復《經濟學人The Economist》專欄：新冠疫情加速自動化大躍遷

中文授權翻譯來自創新工場微信公眾號，原文刊載於經濟學人官網：https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2020/06/25/kai-fu-lee-on-how-covid-spurs-chinas-great-robotic-leap-forward

2003年SARS疫情期間，北京的實體商店全數關門歇業，這迫使一家零售商嘗試向網路轉型，開拓新市場，這家零售商後來發展為當今中國大陸電子商務巨頭之一：京東。再把時間快轉到我們所在的2020年新冠疫情期間，京東大舉推行新型自動化倉儲，單日訂單處理能力超過150萬單，推動銷售額飆升20%，還在武漢用上了機器人和無人機配送，並計劃於今年內在各地開設1000家自動化餐廳。

我們的世界正迎來疫情衝擊下的重大革新：自動化、智能化和數字化。中國經濟正在經歷一場由自動化驅動的升級再造，大規模引入機器人科技來降低商業運作中人與人的接觸；在線業務、演算法和自動化實現了降本提效及安全保障。雖然這樣的轉變在此次疫情之前就已發端，但疫情確實起到了加速的作用。同時我預測，自動化技術短期內可以用於保證社交安全距離，長期而言將對商業運行機制產生更廣泛、更深層次的影響。這一波後疫情時代的自動化浪潮在中國如火如荼，或許也將於世界各地的商業環境開花結果。

過去人們以為要完成生活中的大事小情，就得與他人面對面互動。經歷疫情隔離後，他們發現其實並非如此。從醫療看護、餐飲、配送、製造、物流、運輸和教育這類藍領屬性的職業，到金融、客服、業務、人力資源、法律和會計這些白領屬性的工作，很大程度上都可以由軟體和機器人科技來完成。

從歷史角度看，當經濟下行週期恰逢新一波成熟科技的應用落地，往往會掀起自動化的熱潮。企業受到成本壓力後，會覺得有必要削減工作崗位和嘗試新科技。一旦企業成功引進機器人來取代人類員工，老闆們就不太可能走回頭路，因為機器人不會生病、不會曠工、不會因為要執行危險任務而要求漲薪。事實上，機器人可以說是疾病大流行期間取代高危崗位的最佳解決方案。難怪美國麻省理工學院的經濟學家大衛·奧特爾 (David Autor) 將新冠疫情稱為「自動化推手」。

中國在發展自動化經濟方面有著得天獨厚的優勢，雖然擁有龐大的勞動力，但在過去20年間，中國的勞動力成本增加了十倍，是越南的兩倍多。作為世界工廠，中國有十足的動力實現智能製造，進而從製造大國晉升為製造強國。現在中國已經是全球最大、增長最快的工業機器人市場，2018年大陸的工業機器人市場規模激增21%，達到54億美元，佔全球銷售額的三分之一，各行各業也在積極探索將機器人技術融入製造業的方方面面。

自動化加速的趨勢還輻射到製造業以外的諸多領域。 二月疫情在武漢迅速蔓延，規模龐大的火神山醫院在十天內建成，成列的機器人在醫院內奔走，進行消毒和物資運送，機器人的「身影」還出現在各地的學校、醫院、商業建築中。上海機器人公司擎朗開發的一款無人車結合了激光雷達、計算機視覺、傳感器等技術，可執行無接觸消毒任務。

前陣子我在北京居家隔離時，網購的包裹和食品都由社區的機器人運送，它裝有輪子、外形敦實，很像《星際大戰》中的R2D2，送貨時先以無線呼叫電梯，自主導航至我家門口，然後撥打我的電話通知開門取件。我取走快遞後，機器人就會回到前台等候下一個任務。

美團外賣也推出了「無接觸」配送服務，將餐品送至指定的取餐點，外賣小哥和顧客無需互動便可完成交易，美團還在積極測試無人駕駛送餐車。微信也開發了一個系統，人們可以用手機瀏覽餐廳菜單、點餐和結賬，由人類或機器人將食物送上餐桌。穿梭於店內的機器人服務生可能是為了隔離安全，也可能是為了炒噱頭，但未來它們或許會成為大多數普通餐廳的基礎配置（上流餐廳除外）。

不過短期來看，自動化對白領類型的工作影響更大。雖然流水線這樣基礎的重複性工作容易實現自動化，但多數手工技藝對機器人來說仍舊難以掌握。21世紀的「智能自動化」將有別於20世紀的初級物理自動化，因為如今的機器人需要將機械工程和用於感知和精細動作操控的人工智慧技術模塊融為一體。而在疫情期間，白領員工居家上班，他們在線上的一切活動、承擔的所有任務都被轉化成數據，標誌著向機器全面接手邁出了一小步。這就是自疫情危機爆發以來，提供“機器人流程自動化”的公司迎來一波銷售熱潮的原因。

作為身在中國的高科技投資人，我第一手見證了這些科技在疫情期間落地應用，舉例創新工場投資的追一科技公司開發了一款客服中心自動化軟體。疫情期間，大陸一家大型銀行的信用卡部門部署使用了該軟體，每天和客戶的通話量高達35萬，相當於1200名人工客服的工作量，這類對話機器人不僅降低了成本，還提高了客戶滿意度，增加了收入。現在追一科技已將AI數字員工的落地應用擴大到智能營銷、智能分析、智能培訓、智能助理等諸多場景。

後疫情時代的商業環境新脈絡正在成形，一切可通過自動化降本提效的運營環節都將實現自動化，而自動化過程壓縮人類崗位，不僅僅是為了利潤和績效，更是為了健康和安全。機器人和軟體在疫情發生前便已展現出吸引力，如今這些技術更是有理由成為企業剛需——無論新冠肺炎疫苗是否會研發出來。

雖然一些工作因自動化改變或消亡，但許多新的工作崗位也被創造出來，例如數據中心、5G設備、智能軟體等新的數字化基礎設施，軟體將需要人類員工加以研發部署，而機器人的操作和維修也需要人類技師。同樣，以人為核心的數據收集和標籤分類工作也需要人類參與，以便為AI提供“燃料”，助力自動化經濟發展。許多行業將根據「人類-數字共生」的嶄新模式獲得重塑。以教育領域為例，AI可擔任24小時在線的老師和教練，而人類老師則是智慧的導師和激勵者；在醫療領域，AI將協助人類醫生，充當精準的、有針對性的診斷引擎，而人類醫生則負責與患者溝通和做出最終的決定。

在向自動化經濟轉型的進程中，政府和民間機構需要攜手努力，共同試驗和樹立最佳模式，幫助就業大眾做好準備，並對面臨失業風險的人群進行再培訓。中國較早採用自動化科技，而且有望成功從一個貧困的農業經濟體轉型為一個工業強國，說明中國大陸的實踐可以提供寶貴的經驗。

二戰後，美國的商業慣例成為了全球標準，世界各地的企業都立志與之看齊，在此次疫情的推動下，中國將加快推進自動化、人工智慧和機器人科技深入各行各業，同時為其他地區探索未來方向提供可藉鑑的思路。 ■

本文作者 | 李開復博士
創新工場董事長兼首席執行官
創新工場人工智慧工程院院長

©The Economist Newspaper Limited, London 25th June 2020

請傳給你認識的外國朋友

（繼續發酵！英文翻譯上線！幫手推！）🔥 有外媒相繼報道了關於袁國勇、龍振邦兩位教授疑似因壓力而撤回《明報》專欄文章一事，有手足更花了時間，把文章譯作英文。西方社會是需要知道真相的，請廣傳給在外國的朋友：

[On Mar 18 2020, Professor David Lung at the University of Hong Kong and his colleague Professor Yuen Kwok-yung, a world-renowned expert in microbiology and infectious diseases, withdrew their op-ed in the Chinese-language newspaper Ming Pao, in which they elucidated the origin and naming of the Wuhan Coronavirus, and criticized "inferior Chinese culture" for being the origin of the present pandemic. This led to allegations that the Chinese and Hong Kong governments are covering up the truth and suppressing academic freedom. Below is an English translation of this op-ed. Please spread the word and expose the truth!]

Outbreak in Wuhan shows that lessons from seventeen years ago are forgotten - David Lung and Yuen Kwok-yung, University of Hong Kong [translated from Chinese]

The novel coronavirus outbreak began in Wuhan in Winter 2019, and engulfed the entire province of Hubei by Spring 2020; the number of cases in China grew to over 80,000, with at least 3,000 deaths. The outbreak in China slowed down only after a month-long lockdown, which has failed to curtail the spread of the disease overseas by March 2020. The World Health Organization (WHO) was sluggish in response and failed to declare this a pandemic in a timely fashion. Shortage of relevant measures and protective gear around the world contributed to the global outbreak. Singapore, Hong Kong, Macau, and the Republic of China have so far been spared of the pandemic, though cases linked to overseas travel have yet to cease.

This pandemic is caused by a coronavirus, thus named because of its shape. From 2015 onwards, the WHO has ceased to name diseases using monikers for people, places, animals, food, culture, or occupations. As such, they labeled the disease using the year of the outbreak; thus the designation COVID-19. The International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) used viral genome sequencing as the sole criterion for the naming of viruses; because the similarity between the genetic sequences of the SARS coronavirus and the present novel coronavirus, which therefore is not truly "novel", the ICTV designated the novel coronavirus as "SARS-CoV-2.0". Media organizations and the public call this the Wuhan Coronavirus or the Wuhan Pneumonia; this is perfectly fine because of its simplicity.

There has been heated debate over the naming of the pandemic. As a matter of fact, the disease is named by the WHO and the virus is named by the ICTV; the common name is purely a customary matter and suffices to serves it purpose as long as it is simple and clear. The official names of COVID-19 for the disease, or SARS-CoV-2 for the virus, must be used in scientific and academic discourse. However, the simplicity of the popular designations "Wuhan Coronavirus" and "Wuhan Pneumonia" are far more conducive to daily communication and conversations in the media.

The 2020 pandemic originated in Wuhan

Roughly 75% of novel diseases can be traced to wild animals; the ancestral virus from which several mammalian coronaviruses descend can be traced to bats or birds, both of which can fly over a distance of several thousands of kilometers to the location of first discovery of the virus. As such, the nomenclature of viruses may utilize the name of the location of discovery. The most accurate and objective means to identify the origin of the virus is to isolate the virus from the animal host. However, the Huanan Seafood Market had been cleared, and live wild animals vacated, by the time researchers had arrived for live samples. Consequently, the identity of the natural and intermediate hosts of the coronavirus is unclear. According to local personnel, the wild games in the Huanan Seafood Market are shipped and smuggled from various locations in China, Southeast Asia, and Africa; it remains impossible to identify the ancestry of the Wuhan Coronavirus.

Viral genome sequencing shows a 96% similarity between the Wuhan Coronavirus and the viral strain RaTG13 found in bats, lending credence to the belief that the RaTG13 strain is the ancestral virus for the Wuhan Coronavirus. This viral strain can be isolated from the bat species Rhinolophus sinicus found in Yunnan, China; thus bats are believed to be the natural host to the Wuhan Coronavirus. Epidemiological studies show definitively that the Huanan Seafood Market was the amplification epicenter, where the transmission of the virus from the natural host to the intermediate host likely occurred, before a mutation to a form that can adapt to the human body, followed by human-to-human transmission.

The identity of the intermediate host remains unclear; viral genome sequencing, however, reveals a 90% similarity between the spike receptor-binding domain of the Wuhan Coronavirus and of the coronavirus strain found in pangolins. While uncertainties remain for us to unambiguously identify the pangolin as the intermediate host, it is extremely likely that the pangolin coronavirus strain donated the spike receptor-binding domain genetic sequence, or even the entire gene section, to the bat coronavirus strain, culminating in the novel coronavirus upon DNA shuffling.

Wild animal market: the origin of numerous viruses

The SARS outbreak in 2003 can be traced to Heyuan prior to engulfing Guangdong and ravaging Hong Kong. The SARS Coronavirus was found in the masked palm civet; China has subsequently outlawed the sales of live wild animals. Seventeen years later, wild animal markets have instead grown unabashed, in flagrant violation of the law. The Chinese people have forgotten the lessons of SARS in their entirety. The glaring appearance of live wild animal markets in city centers, and the egregious acts of selling, cooking, and eating these wild animals, constitute a stunning and blatant disregard for the laws. The feces of these wild animals carry large concentrations of bacteria and viruses; the crowded set-up, the poor hygiene, and the proximity of different animal species are extremely conducive to DNA shuffling and genetic mutations. As such, these markets need to be banned outright.

Remodeling of markets is key to the prevention of epidemics. The Chinese and Hong Kong governments must promptly improve the set-up of markets by enhancing ventilation and getting rid of rats and pests. Before the elimination of all live poultry markets becomes a reality, animal feces found in these markets must be handled properly to lower the chances of genetic shuffling between viruses.

Internet conspiracies of an U.S. origin of the virus is not supported by facts, and only serves to mislead the public. The dissemination of conspiracy theories needs to stop. Transparency is first and foremost in the fight against an epidemic; we need cool heads and rational analysis in place of hearsay and falsehood. The failure to close all live wild animal markets post-SARS was a colossal mistake; to win the battle over the pandemic, we must face reality, and not repeat the same mistakes while leaving the blame upon others. The Wuhan Coronavirus is a product of inferior Chinese culture -\-\ the culture of recklessly catching and eating wild animals, and treating animals inhumanely, with an utter disrespect and disregard of lives. This inferior culture of the Chinese people -\-\ specifically the consumption of wild animals to satiate themselves -\-\ is the true origin of the Wuhan Coronavirus. If these habits and attitudes remain in place, SARS 3.0 will certainly happen in a matter of a decade or so.

以上翻譯來自：
一個窮科學家移民美國的夢幻故事

外媒報道：
https://www.nytimes.com/…/19reuters-health-coronavirus-hong…

https://www.nasdaq.com/…/adviser-to-hong-kong-on-coronaviru…

感謝法國權威媒體《解放報》的專訪，看到今日報紙半版的法文內容，覺得很感動。翻譯過後，感受到法國媒體對女性創作者/演員/藝術家的支持以及對 #灼人秘密 的喜愛，內心踏實/開心。Thanks France newspaper 【liberation】's interview.❤️

用電腦總離不開使用滑鼠！不過隨着社交媒體流行，中文打字需要愈見廣泛，大家可能又需要多樣嘢，就係手寫板一類文字輸入工具；一部桌上電腦側邊，隨時有鍵盤、滑鼠及手寫板，但人生一對手，又點樣Handle三樣嘢呢？最近腦場新返兩款文字輸入式滑鼠，一款融合手寫板功能，另一款可用語音辨識，邊一款更好用？就由肥通來試試吧！

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全新副刊，推動知識文化多元。培養品味，立足香港放眼世界。不畏高牆，我們站在雞蛋一方。
《果籽》 栽種品味，一籽了然。 https://hk.appledaily.com/realtime/lifestyle/

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之前Samsung發佈會已為大家講解過新機S9和S9+新功能，來到西班牙MWC現場的Samsung展區，也有更多新發現。智能助手Bixby來到S9、S9+加入了不少新功能，例如宣傳片提及的即時翻譯，這次我們就用Bixby和食物互動。只需要提開手機相機，開啟Bixby Vision，再將鏡頭對準食物，就會顯示它的卡路里含量。

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全新副刊，推動知識文化多元。培養品味，立足香港放眼世界。不畏高牆，我們站在雞蛋一方。
《果籽》　栽種品味，一籽了然。
https://hk.appledaily.com/realtime/lifestyle/