月餅收了很多，又 Grand Hyatt 又 Ritz Carlton 的，每盒都是人家心意，每個都比月亮珍貴。

不過要講意思，必定是今年這盒明閣月餅。

明閣好巴閉？Ok 啦，中菜好食，月餅都好食。但這盒明閣特別有意思，跟明閣無關。

月餅是林溢欣老師送的，這個很有意思，

這位還有兩日便三十五歲的林老師早前宣佈，決定自立門戶，與另一上市公司聯手打造全新補習中心。

補習社取名「凝皓」，寓意凝聚光明。

上市公司的聯交所公告一出，很多傳媒不斷吹捧的，是上市公司支付林老師那個八位數字的「合作誠意金」，講到好似補習界 C 朗咁型。

但其實。

如果細心研究，你便會發現林老師一啲都唔型，而且非常蠢。

第一，基於很多原因，例如 covid、例如下降的出生率、例如學生多了的種種出路，客觀數據指向的事實便是補習市場逐漸縮少了。

個餅細咗先嚟自己搞生意，仲唔蠢？

第二，向來只是擔當老師一個角色的他，現在做老闆了，即是要同時孭起營運者的責任。唔好以為上市公司會幫佢做，公告講明林老師係 General Manager，好話唔好聽，而家爆水喉、冷氣唔夠凍、其他科目的學生人數都關佢事。

上完堂仲要無啦啦攬埋咁多瓣嘢上身，夠唔夠蠢？

第三，八位數的誠意金真的很多嗎？比起林生以前在遵理搵嗰個數，真係區區一年收入而已。難道你覺得他之後在自己的品牌下教學的每年收入會高過他在遵理嗎？Come on James，遵理有十一間分校，林生嘅新品牌得三間分校，普通加減數都計到，賺嘅錢何來可以多過以前？

簡單一句就係肯肯定做多咗嘢但係搵少咗錢，四個字，蠢中之蠢。

「其實我都蠢慣，」林老師在觀塘一家叫財記的茶餐廳對我說，「蠢多一次冇分別。」

高中畢業蠢了一次，決定了往後的路。

那時候考完 A Levels 的林溢欣，挾著三 A 兩 B 的成績，好多所謂神科都入到，什麼銀行什麼律師行本來就是咫尺之距，但佢偏偏揀咗中大中文系。「我知出路唔多，但係我真係鍾意中文。」

一讀便讀到碩士，出來第一份工就是遵理。你以為一出來便是天王？一開頭點會有學生，冇學生就冇分成，冇分成就冇收入，所以入行的時候，他教的是遵理日校。

朝頭早八點教到下午四點，然後五點至十點就教補習嗰邊，天天如是。不要忘記，補習要用筆記，即是拖著身軀回到家還不可以睡，要改卷、整筆記、出試卷。你以為星期日可以休息下？星期日是補習的黃金時間，夜晚十一點先落堂。

做人最難唔係努力。

即係咁，如果上帝預先話你知，嗱，只要你每日努力十五個鐘，面前呢十億現金，就係你㗎喇。你估你肯唔肯努力？肯定努力到前無古人，保證。

但如果上帝說，努力吧，十億是有機會的，但不能肯定，我諗十個有九個都會繼續瞓覺。

努力本身唔難，任何一個所謂理想，最難嘅地方，係你明知努力完之後有機會白做，但依然願意努力。

林老師在課堂裏跟學生說過：「我哋每個人都有一條想行嘅路，但行嗰條想行嘅路之前，必須先行一條要行嘅路。」

想走的路，都是任性的；要走的路，就是為自己儲夠任性的本錢。

正如林生在社交媒體說：「這個時代，做最喜歡的自己，叩問自己心中的想法，找到自身回應時代的答案，才算得上無憾。」

好似好型，但其實他這個「最喜歡的自己」，還是跟這個時代有點格格不入。

話說。

林老師跟上市公司簽約之後，公司立刻奉上一張港幣一千萬的支票，放了在中環一家律師樓。佢話唔急住入，但我說梗係早入早享受。他不能抽空到銀行，我說入票呢啲粗重功夫，我做慣，樂意代勞。

「你個戶口最尾嗰三個號碼咁得意嘅？」我問。

「有咩特別？我平時都係呢個戶口。」

去到中環的總行，把支票交給職員。隔了十秒，職員向我致歉：「唔好意思呀先生，呢個戶口入唔到呢張票。」

吓？呢個戶口有咩問題？

「呢個戶口冇問題，但呢個係簿仔戶口，簿仔戶口係入唔到一千萬嘅支票。」

原來今時今日，仲有人會打簿。

試圖用簿仔戶口入一張一千萬支票，這應該是在中環發生過最有型的蠢事。

🌻這星期, 比較引起我注意的就是這幾個新聞了

☘️美國支付公司PayPal(PYPL)宣布，將以3000億日圓（27億美元）收購日本新創公司Paidy，以強化自家「先買後付」（BNPL）產品。

熟悉美股的讀者, 應該對BNPL不陌生了. PayPal這舉動, 其實也強化了跟Amazon的關係:
(from Morgan Stanley)
Provides potential for initial relationship with AMZN in Japan: We think the deal is most notable for giving PYPL its first entry into AMZN's large ecosystem, which PYPL has been trying to gain access to for some time. Paidy began providing BNPL services for AMZN in Japan in November 2019, and after the deal closes, PYPL should have a clear path to eventually sell some of its other core services to AMZN in Japan.

☘️lululemon(LULU)昨天(台灣周四凌晨)發表財報了, 股價跳漲10.47%.

Morgan Stanley:
We highlight margin expansion as particularly impressive against 1) higher eCommerce penetration, which has historically resulted in EBIT margin degradation for many other specialty retail peers, 2) the acquisition of MIRROR, which has not yet achieved profitability, & 3) already best-in-class historical operating margin levels. While some macro factors like lean industry-wide inventory levels may be partially supporting these results, in our view they point to a higher & more profitable growth trajectory for the business compared to the outlook pre-Covid. As such, though LULU’s P/E multiple sits at 46x, above the high end of its pre-Covid 18-41x range, we view current levels as merited against higher future growth & profitability. In our view, this may represent a more permanent valuation re-rating for LULU, & the stock likely continues to trade at elevated levels until results prove otherwise.

🌻Alphabet(GOOGL)今年的表現為什麼那麼亮眼?
今年最會漲的FAANG個股之一, 就是GOOGL了. 如果有在follow這家公司的讀者, 應該有發現他們的營收結構跟過去幾年很不一樣了(可以看下面的表格). YouTube以及Cloud業務成為新的營收成長動能.

Picture: 畫 from National Gallery of Art; 自製的GOOGL簡單營收分類表.

🌻Docusign(DOCU), Crowdstrike(CRWD)財報結果
上週這兩家公司發表財報了.

這兩天看了一下他們的財報結果. Again, 兩家的表現都很好, 但發現分析師給DOCU的調價(往上)幅度比較多, 就好奇研究了一下SaaS公司是怎麼被估值的. 有興趣的話可以看看(從中學習到很多. 非常推薦一讀):
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/09/blog-post.html

(By the way, 分析師對CRWD的價格調幅沒那麼大, 主因是成長趨緩了. 而DOCU的free cash flow佔營收比, 以及顧客黏著力在這季創了新高, 是讓分析師按讚的幾個原因).

關於CRWD: "The Street is already modeling revenue growth deceleration in 2022 to 36%, down from 60% expected in 2021, which on its own might prove a hurdle for a stock already trading at a high multiple," said Bank of America analyst Tal Liani in a report.

分析師對於DOCU的評價:
• 11位buy; 給的價格分別是: $310, $320 (x2), $330 (x2), $340 (x2), $345, $350, $350, $389
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst continues to view them as a best in class way to play digital transformation trends with strong growth, cash flow and profitability, and a strong competitive position. Power said DocuSign remains one of his top long-term compounding growth ideas.
o Citi: While slightly shy of the double-digit billings beat in recent quarters, DocuSign still delivered a solid 8% beat to Q2 billings, which grew 47% year-over-year, Radke tells investors in a research note.
o Evercore ISI: he calls "another strong quarter." While some may have wanted to see more aggressive Q3 billings guidance, he believes estimates "continue to leave room for upside," Materne said.
o JMP Securities: While revenue growth decelerated to 50% from 58% in Q1, the company is the clear leader in electronic signature and the broader system of agreement having crossed over 1M customers with a $2B run rate this quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that he sees lots of room for growth as DocuSign targets a $50B total addressable market.
o Needham: The analyst commented, "Docusign reported another strong quarter in 2QF22 with typical DOCU upside to revenue and profitability. Sales metrics and growth decelerated Q/Q, as we expected against a massive pandemic quarter, but at a much slower rate than we believe much of the Street was anticipating. 65k net new customers was lower than the 70k - 90 range of CY20 but was still more than 2x greater than any pre-pandemic quarter, highlighting a strong end-market driving 47% billings growth against a strong comp. Commentary on incremental Agreement Cloud demand was positive, suggesting an additional growth tailwind combined with solid international can further aid 2HF22. Although DOCU shares could be lower near-term due to weak 2H OpMg guidance, we think this guidance is conservative, as the recent OM was greater than the pre-pandemic level even with tough comps."
o RBC Capital: The quarter highlighted the sustainability of the company's tailwinds post-pandemic as most of its underlying metrics such as billings and net revenue retention were solid, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that the traction with CLM and Notary was also "impressive".

分析師對於CRWD的評價:
• 12位buy; 給的價格分別是: $300, $310 (x2), $313, $315 (x2) , $305, $320, $325, $330 (x2), $340
• 1位給hold: $280 (from $220 by J.P. Morgan(same))
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst believes the company has significant room for growth with core modules, opportunities with Humio and in cloud workload security, among others, should help drive a continuation of strong growth over a long time horizon.
o BTIG: The company's "strong" Q2 results "cleared every hurdle", even though the buy-side benchmarks may have been slightly higher, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Powell adds that Crowdstrike is clearly gaining share in its core endpoint security target market at a rapid pace and gaining traction with new products across multiple categories.
o Canaccord: The analyst said the stock is down from its recent highs, and he thinks the re-rating creates a more favorable entry point for longer-oriented investors for a foundational security name. He views Crowdstrike as a long-term secular winner in security due to its native cloud platform advantage versus closely held peers in endpoint security combined with platform expansion into tangential segments to capture greater share of security budgets.
o Goldman Sachs: CrowdStrike last night delivered "another beat and raise quarter as the company benefited from another quarter of elevated demand," Essex said. But it traded lower following net new annual recurring revenue growth guidance that was slightly less than investors had hoped for. Essex, nonetheless, said the quarter demonstrated CrowdStrike's "ability to continue to go down market efficiently."
o JMP Securities: The analyst notes the company's Q2 annualized recurring revenue of $1.34B topping his estimate of $1.30B, with "sustained" 70% ARR and revenue growth along with margin upside seen as key highlights for the quarter. Suppiger adds that the metrics reflect Crowdstrike's "strong execution and robust demand environment".
o Mizuho: "very good" fiscal Q2 results. The annual recurring revenue growth of 70% year-over-year "was strong and still nicely surpassed" the Street's 65%-66% estimate, Moskowitz tells investors in a research note. He believes "strong execution can propel" Crowdstrike's stock higher.
o Piper Sandler: The company's metrics "outperformed across the board" in Q2 with 70% annual recurring revenue and revenue growth and record net new customer adds in the quarter, Owens tells investors in a research note.
o RBC Capital: Hedberg adds that CrowdStrike's record pipeline entering Q3 should continue to fuel the company's "land-and-expand" momentum.
o Stifel: Q2 results that he said "exceeded consensus estimates across all major financial metrics." He continues to believe that Crowdstrike's growth opportunity "remains in the early days" despite the company's scale given continued share capture within its core endpoint security market and incremental module adoption on the Falcon Platform, Reback tells investors.
o UBS: the company reported "pretty good" Q2 results against high expectations.

🌻趨勢: 跨境電商 Cross-border commerce
Morgan Stanley:
From our perspective, we think many are underestimating what the cross-border eCommerce demand could ultimately be, once key friction points like FX rates, tax and duties, shipping, language, etc are smoothed—all issues that Global-E directly addresses.

Cross-border ecommerce brings new, high-yield volume: We think elevated levels of cross-border ecommerce (ex-travel) is a structural shift thathas yet to be fully contemplated in MA (and V)'s long-term forecasts. MA's cross-border CNP ex-travel volume was 69% above 2019's level in 2Q and 63% higher in 1Q. Strength reflects both broader ecommerce adoption plus globalization of commerce, as marketplaces and services that reduce cross-border friction (such as those from GLBE) make international online ordering more readily adopted. Early data at V suggests greater cross-border ecommerce spend is persisting even in areas with pre-pandemic levels of international travel. Cross-border transactions also come at a higher yield, making us more optimistic that the trend can bring incremental long-term growth to the networks.

產業的潮流是有連貫性的. 疫情讓電商更發達後, 接下來應該就是加速電商跨境了. 跨境的話, 有很多問題需要解決(稅率, 語言, etc.) 這就需要有公司來做整合的動作. 這種跨境, 也可以想像是omnichannel的一種呈現.

Harley Finkelstein (President of Shopify): "I mean I think commerce in 2021 is cross-border."

🌻SPAC熱潮退卻，初創市值蒸發750億美元
"SPAC熱潮已經退卻。分析顯示，在2月中旬以前完成合併的137家SPAC的總市值已經蒸發25%，市值回落幅度上個月一度超過1,000億美元。"

"像貝萊德(BlackRock Inc., BLK)和富達投資(Fidelity Investments Inc.)這類企業管理的基金，以及許多對沖基金、養老金管理公司和其他一些投資者，都在SPAC的回落中遭受了衝擊，他們在去年年底開始的熱潮中競相投資SPAC。其中許多基金由於在價格還很低的時候就早早入場，所以現在仍坐擁可觀收益。事實上，SPAC市值仍有約2,500億美元，高於一年前的約1,000億美元，反映出這期間股價上漲和新公司上市的影響。

但即便如此，今年年初令人炫目的回報還是讓許多後來者做了接盤俠，扎堆投資所謂穩賺不賠的領域，其永恆的風險可見一斑。在過去的幾個月裡，一些投資者眼睜睜看著帳面財富縮水。"

"股價下跌會在SPAC領域形成惡性循環，因為投資者有權在併購交易前從空白支票公司撤資。一旦SPAC跌破發行價，投資者就更有可能這樣做，而許多SPAC的股價現在正處於這樣的水平。目前，在尚未宣布併購交易的空白支票公司中，超過95%的公司股價低於發行價。

投資者的大規模撤資會讓已經上市的空白支票公司手上的現金大幅減少，讓其更難實現業務目標，並可能加劇股價跌勢。"

https://on.wsj.com/3n6JznC

🌻BNPL (buy now pay later)
But most BNPL providers including Affirm, Klarna and Afterpay have been losing money despite breakneck revenue growth as they invest heavily in marketing to win share. Sweden-based Klarna’s credit losses more than doubled in the second quarter. Affirm has projected adjusted operating losses of $50m-$55m for the fiscal year that ended June 30.

The path to profitability for many of these companies was to achieve massive scale, analysts said.

https://www.ft.com/content/ca201a37-a16d-4223-b123-04d38350a972

Pictures: 一葉知秋; from EarningsWhispers