I have recently perused Nicholas Kristof’s NYT piece “China’s Man in Washington, Named Trump”(https://nyti.ms/3h2JXh8). One paragraph in particular caught my attention: “A joke in China suggests that Trump’s Chinese name is Chuan Jianguo, or “Build-the-Country Trump.” That’s because Build-the-Country is a common revolutionary name among Communist patriots, and it’s mockingly suggested that Trump’s misrule of the United States is actually bolstering Xi’s regime.”

Kristoff also avows that since Trump’s ascension to presidency, the American nation became highly polarized. This is reflected in the current administration’s policies on climate change, foreign relations with established U.S. allies, and COVID-19 prevention, all of which are rather ineffective. It also seems like Mr. Trump and his team diverged from the traditional priorities, including promoting free trade, human rights, and other quintessentially American values. As described thoroughly by John Bolton, all these factors contributed to the declining standing of the U.S. in global politics.

What is more, many people fall prey to CCP’s propaganda and its interpretations of Trump’s actions, which only enhances China’s reputation.

But that might not exactly be the case.

The CCP apparently failed to utilize the window of opportunity created by the ineptness of the Trump administration, as China could have grown to the position of a leader by filling in the void left by the U.S.

During the 2016 APEC Ministerial Meeting in Lima, Peru, Xi Jinping and his team actively supported the plans to establish the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and a Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific, or FTAAP. In contrast, the United States withdrew its signature from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in early 2017. Coupled with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank (AIIB), this move bolstered China’s capacity to influence global investments and trade, high-tech mergers and acquisitions, and, overall, expand its geostrategic influence on the entire globe.

At the same time, various propaganda films about great power competition, military industry, and science and technology surged all at once, and gained remarkable following around the world.

All this provided a window of opportunity for the CCP to slowly change its course. Around the same time, the distrust for POTUS among U.S. allies’ reached its apex. According to polls conducted by the Pew Research Center, the distrust for the U.S. president in the U.K. reached 75%, 72% in Japan, 70% in Australia, and stunning 86% in France.

Had the C.C.P,. begun to open up at that time, or at least resumed the governance style of the Hu-Wen administration, it could have reaped the benefits of promoting liberalism where the U.S. failed to deliver. It was the time for Beijing to gradually enhance freedom of speech domestically, pursue sustainable infrastructural projects, gradually reform unfair barriers to trade, transform its S.O.E.s, strengthen protections for private ownership, and vitalize its start-ups and enterprises.

Moreover, were China to cease the genocide in East Turkestan and refrain from cracking down on Hong Kong's semi-autonomy, it would have greatly enhanced its global international image. Additionally, if paired with slow but steady reforms, Beijing’s respect for sovereignty of its peoples would have attracted a large amount of foreign investment, which in turn would have continued to buttress the country’s growth.

It is China prerogative to remain idle.
It might still be possible for Chinese “Dream” to come true.
Yet, a historic window of opportunity is now closed.

Xi assumed the tools of proscribing and stalling, which are completely antithetical to the aforementioned window of opportunity.

Today, China is more authoritarian, less flexible, and fully deprived of horizontal accountability. Its reliance on wolf warrior diplomacy backfired: for example, the Swedish parliament sought to expel the Chinese ambassador to Stockholm. Also, Prague, the capital of Czechia, terminated its sister-city agreement with Shanghai and instead signed a new one with Taipei. Last but not least, we ought not to forget about the recent fiasco in the relations with the United States who ordered the shutdown of China’s consulate in Houston. All of this took its toll on China’s reputation.

Its international standing and inability to replace the U.S. as the major global power are not the only issues China is currently facing.
As it experiences multiple domestic and international shocks, China struggles to combat the COVID-19 pandemic and tame the disastrous floods of Yangtze River. The swarm of locusts of biblical proportions is also crippling Beijing’s institutional capacity and may soon lead to food shortages. In fact, the precarity of food supply further diminishes the level of trust for Chinese authorities.

In 2019, the Pew Research Center conducted a public opinion survey to examine the international views of China. In the U.S., Argentina, the U.K., Canada, Germany, and Ukraine, only about 30% of respondents claim a favorable view of China.

As the COVID-19 pandemic rages in the U.S., as many as 73% of U.S. respondents view China unfavorably.

Recently, the C.C.P. is losing its focus by continuously shifting targets. In fact, I believe there is no need for the C.C.P.to rely on nationalistic appeals, since in this new century values, business relations, and fair competition are all far more important than greater than delusive blood ties.
China lies only 130 kilometers away from us. Of course, we welcome dialogue and seek to avoid misjudgments. But we also distinguish between the C.C.P. and China. While we do welcome dialogue, but we will not be coerced to talk under unjust preconditions or in fear.

The only fair prerequisites are those of reciprocity, mutual respect as well as fairness and openness with respect for the rule of law.
Source: Pew Research Center

最近看到紐約時報中文版的一篇文章
<美國的川普，中國的「川建國」>，其中一小段是這樣的

「在中國，人們戲稱川普的中文名字是川建國。那是因為建國是共產黨愛國者中一個普遍的革命人名。它在諷刺地暗示川普對美國的治理不當實際上是在鞏固習近平的政權。」

裡面也提到，川普在任的幾年，國家更分裂，對於氣候變遷，傳統美國盟友，乃至於疫情處理等都相當拙劣，對於美國傳統的自由貿易、人權等價值也基本上都沒有太大興趣。這些方針，導致美國在世界的評價降低，波頓的新書也多有描述。

除此之外，許多不幸相信中共宣傳，又或者是中共圈養的小粉紅，特別故意愛宣傳川普增強中國的威望。

但這不是真的。

中共完全沒有掌握美國做得不夠好的地方，去增強其在世界的領導力。

在2016年時，秘魯的亞太峰會舉行期間，習近平政權爭取（RCEP）及亞太自由貿易區（FTAAP）談判；對比2017年初，美國剛宣布退出ＴＰＰ，加上中國到「一帶一路」和亞洲基礎設施投資銀行，中國當時在世界全面發揮投資貿易、高科技併購還有其地緣戰略的影響力。

也是那個時候，各種的大國崛起、大國軍工、大國科技的宣傳影片此起彼落，似乎正準備要在世界舞台發光發熱。

這曾經是中共慢慢轉向的一個機會之窗。彼時（2017)美國盟友對美國總統的不信任度達到歷史新高，根據皮尤研究中心的資訊，英國對於美國總統的不信任度達到75%、日本72% 澳洲70% 法國更高達86%

如果那時中共開始有限度的改革，對內放寬言論自由，或者至少維持在胡溫當時的水中，對外追求有責任的基礎建設，逐步緩慢減低不公平的貿易壁壘，對於國有企業改革，增強私營企業、新創企業的活力。

停止對新疆迫害，不干預香港自治，不僅國際形象會大幅改善，哪怕是緩慢但是穩健的改革，也會讓大量吸引外資，讓中國的活力持續前進。

哪怕是什麼都不做也好

那或許有這麽一點可能性，中國「夢」是可以前行的

但是歷史機緣的大門已經關上。

習、禁、停、放棄了這個機會之窗，徹底的走向相反的方向。

更專制、更沒有彈性，更沒有任何制衡的力量。各種戰狼外交，讓瑞典議員提案驅逐中國大使，捷克布拉格市長與台北簽訂姊妹是，就解散上海與該市關係、被美國關閉領事館、各種讓中國形象低下的事情，中共都沒有少做。

中共不但完全沒有辦法取代美國，在多重國內外的衝擊之下，又是瘟疫，又是超大水患，緊接著蝗害，還有進來的糧食不足問題，正在面臨巨大的瓶頸。

而糧食的命脈，卻恰恰又在對他最不信任，對中共價值最反對的國家聯盟

根據皮尤研究中心:Pew Research Center2019調查各國對中國的喜好度，美國、阿根廷、英國、加拿大、德國、烏克蘭等，對於中國的喜好度都在30%上下

而2020疫情後美國對於中國的不信任度，更高達73%。

最近中共在演習，又要玩轉移目標的手段，對於中共，其實不必再有民族主義的同情，因為新的世紀，價值、商業模式、公平競爭的制度大於血緣幻想。

中國離我們只有130公里的距離，我們當然歡迎對話，避免誤判。但我們同時也區分中共與中國，歡迎對話，但不在前提、條件、恐懼之下對話。

如果真的要有前提，那就是對等、尊重，還有公平公開法治的方式會晤。

資料來源：皮尤研究中心:Pew Research Center
（美國著名的民調機構和智庫機構，https://www.pewresearch.org/）

【素人推薦文-最重要的夥伴】

四年前，我請在旅途中遇到的兩位好朋友，幫我寫一段他們對我的感想。不愧是我的好朋友，所以在兩年前，我終於收到了其中一位瓦倫的回覆（我們是拖時間比賽嗎XD）。當我現在要把他們整理到書裡面時，覺得NG的片段也太好笑了，所以決定一刀未剪的放上來給大家瞧瞧，你就會知道，在路上可能會遇到什麼樣沒頭沒腦只會拼命講幹話的好朋友 :D (以下是我的翻譯，原文可以往下跳到最後）

「兩位：
我終於找到時間寫些句子給Min，這真的不是一件容易的事情，因為當我開始認真寫個三句話之後，就會忍不住接一些廢話進去。這真的不是一件容易的事，試想看看，如果你得寫一篇關於某人好話的文章，但其實你心裡清楚她其實是個騙子，因為她總是跑去搭火車？

因此，這是我第一個嘗試：
Min是一個像金一樣純的人，她充滿愛和精神，總是穿白色衣服。她沒有騎車，而是在地球上飛行了50厘米。 不...他媽的！

第二次嘗試：
親愛的人們，我必須警告您：這本書是一本幻想小說！如果作者寫了幾公里這樣的文字，很有可能實際上是公尺；當她寫單車時，她意味著火車；當她寫帳篷時，其實指的是一間三星級酒店。

第三次嘗試：
關於第一個騎單車的背包客女子從德國乘火車到臺灣的簡短故事。

我第一次遇到Min時是在德黑蘭的土庫曼大使館大樓外。她問我：「您是Vali嗎？德國人，騎單車前往烏茲別克斯坦嗎？我是Min，我也想去那裡，我們可以一起騎嗎？」

那時候，我不想結識其他騎單車的人。某方面來講，我已經聽夠別人的故事，並很享受自己一個人的旅行。自從我的旅伴朱莉從伊斯坦堡離開我之後，我便開始享受旅途中的寂靜與寂寞。所以我並不想和Min一起旅行，但我只是回答她：「好吧，...是的，好吧，如果我們都能順利拿到簽證，就可以一起騎車。」於是她問了我的聯繫方式，最後她也真的打電話給我一起去領取簽證。

我們開始一起旅行時，我的伊朗簽證只剩9天，因此我每天必須不斷地趕路，我不確定Min是否能夠跟上，因為這將會改變騎車的節奏。但是當我開始認識Min時，我發現她是一個有趣的女孩，一個只燃燒熱情就打算從慕尼黑回到臺灣的女人，充滿了理想和天真。

她只是單純的展開了計劃，在還不知道接下來會發生什麼事，也沒有任何騎乘單車和露營經驗的情況下。她帶了一個彈出式的帳篷，那種帳篷你只會為了在車上應付緊急情況而準備的帳篷；是當你可能在開高速公路回家的路上，因為太過於勞累，而決定扔出這種圓形帳篷休息一下才會用到的那種。而她的單車也沒有前袋，所以她所有的裝備都扛在單車的後面以及她的背上，因為她竟然背了一個背包！實際上，她是第一個騎單車從德國到臺灣的背包客。這就是Min令人印象深刻的一件事：她有這個想法，然後她做到了。

她得到一台贊助的單車和一些贊助的裝備，然後就拿著這些東西展開旅程。她的思考模式不像我這樣的德國人，在計劃開始之前必須擁有完美的單車和完美的裝備。對她而言，在還沒有這些條件之前就可以動身了。我永遠不會知道她何時開始計劃，以及為何要做這趟旅行，我想連她自己都不確定，即使在書裡她告訴了你們不同的故事。

所以在伊朗的時候，我們開始認識彼此，而我的內心也開始轉變，我發現和Min一起騎車真是太好了。

有一天我們還遇到了香港人Senda，傍晚我們一起紮營時，他們兩個在抱怨伊朗米飯因為不夠粘稠，所以不能用筷子吃。請想像一下，有三個人聚集在他們各自的帳篷前，在伊朗沙漠中繁星密布的星空下，而我這顆德國馬鈴薯陷入了一場關於米飯的討論之中。我不得不為自己大笑，當我告訴他們在煮飯時我加了鹽時，他們倆都非常生氣。從這種情況下，我了解到米對於Min、Senda和其他將米作為主食的人來說是非常重要的。於是，我決定再也不會煮米飯給他們，因為他們比我更知道如何煮好米飯。

之後Senda前往阿富汗，Min和我前往馬沙德（Mashad），我們就此分開直到在烏茲別克再度相見。在土庫曼斯坦的途中，我遇到了一個叫雷蒙，又名骯髒的旅行者的瘋子，我們一起前進，當我們離開土庫曼斯坦時，我們又遇到了Min，組成一個黃金三角的夢幻單車隊。雷蒙非常熱愛騎單車，是一個非常可愛的傢伙。我們三個在一起的時刻如此獨特，在一起共享每一天，只有在夜晚時，被帳篷的薄布分開。我們一起騎單車，一起出汗，一起奮鬥，一起度過美好的夜晚，同時在帳篷前烹飪美味佳餚，共享非常愉快的自由與自主的時光。當我現在回想起來，不得不承認那是我一生中最美好的時光。Min是其中很大的一部分。

如果您想進一步了解Min和她的冒險經歷，則必須購買此書。真是太神奇了，我在馬桶上翻起書頁，就在那待了兩天，直到看完為止。讀這本書就像呼吸吉爾吉斯斯坦高原的空氣一樣，就像在雷蒙身後騎車並聞到他的屁味一樣。這將是一本暢銷書，是一本令人難忘的書。絕對推薦！買吧！」
－Valentin R (一位來自德國的瘋狂自行車旅人，和Min一起旅行了兩個月)

⟗⟗⟗⟗⟗⟗⟗⟗⟗⟗
來來來~想要一起蹲在馬桶上兩天的請往這裡請
👉https://pse.is/minbook

🤭我個人是很好奇, 他到底蹲了兩天看什麼東西?
🤔不要說我的書沒有德文版, 連中文都還在做編輯...
🤫到底是看了什麼啊...? XDDDD
⟗⟗⟗⟗⟗⟗⟗⟗⟗⟗

(原文)
Hey guys,
while staying for four days in Bangkok to repair audio amplifiers for rich Thai men I finally I found the time to write some sentences about Min and it was really not easy, because when I start writing something like this, I will write bullshit after three sentences. It is really not easy. Have you ever written something about another person and you have to talk good about this person while you know she is a liar and always went by train?

So the first try:
Min is pure gold. She is full of love and spirit and always wears white clothes. She is not cycling, she is flying fifty centimeters over the earth. NOOOOO fuck it!

second try:
Dear people, I have to warn you: this book is a fantasy book! If the author writes about kilometers on the bicycles she meant probably meters. When she writes bicycle she means train, when she writes tent she means three star hotel.......NOOOOO shit!

third try:
A short story about the first backpacker woman on a bicycle who travelled from Germany to Taiwan in a train
The first time I met Min was at the Turkmen embassy building in Teheran when she encountered me and asked: „Are you Vali, the German guy travelling to Uzbekistan by bike? I am Min, I also want to go there and I wanted to ask you if we can ride together?“
At this time I didn't want to know any other cyclists, somehow I was bored to hear stories of others while I was having a great adventure by myself. I enjoyed the silence and loneliness on the road since Jule, my cycle mate, left me in Istanbul. So actually I didn't want to travel with Min in the first moment, but I just answered to Min: „Well,...yes..., ok, if we get the visas we can ride together.“ So she asked for my contact and she really called me to pick up the visas.
I only had nine days left in Iran before my visa expired so we had to go really quick and I didn't know if Min was able to catch up. It was a change in rhythm for my bike tour, but when I started to know Min I found out that she is a funny girl with a burning ambition to fulfill her aim travelling by bicycle from Munich in Germany to her home country of Taiwan. A woman full of spirit and a good portion of naivety. She just started the trip without knowing what will come and without any experience of cycling and camping before this trip. She was equipped with a pop up tent, the kind of tent you have in the car for an emergency, when you are still on the highway and you get to tired to drive home. So you have this kind of round tent that you can throw and it pops up as a tent by itself. She also didn't have front panniers (bags) on her bike, so all her equipment was in the back – and also on her back, because she was wearing a backpack! Actually she was the first backpacker on a bicycle to travel from Germany to Taiwan. And that is the impressing thing about Min: she had the idea to do this trip, so she just did. She got a sponsored bike and some kind of sponsored equipment and she just took this and started the tour. She didn't think the German way like me who had to have a perfect bicycle and perfect equipment before I started. No, she just started without any spare parts for the bicycle, without any experience in cycling and camping. I never found out when she started to have this idea and why and probably she doesn't know herself even if she tells you different in this book.
So in the time in Iran we got to know each other and my mood was turning and I found out that it is nice to cycle with Min.
On day we also met Senda, an Hongkongnesian guy and in the evening Min and him were complaining about the Iranian rice, because it is not sticky so you cannot eat it with chop sticks. So you must imagine three people in front of their tents under a really nice Iranian starry sky in the desert and me as a German potato in the middle of this rice dicussion. I had to laugh for myself a lot and when I told them that I put salt in the rice when I cook it, the both got really angry. From this situation I learnt that rice must be something really important for Min, Senda and other people that eat rice as staple food. This night I decided to never cook any rice for them, because the knew it always better in terms of rice.
Senda went on to Afghanistan and Min and me went on to Mashad and we divided there to meet up in Uzbekistan again. On the way through Turkmenistan I met a crazy guy called Raimon a.k.a. Dirty Traveller and we went on together and when we left Turkmenistan we met Min again forming the golden triangle of cyclism, a dream team. Raimon is really passionate about cycling and a really lovely dude. We three had so much unique moments together, sharing the whole day together, only the nights we were divided by the thin cloth of our tents. We cycled together, we sweat together, we fighted together, we had nice evenings together while cooking nice dishes in front of our tents and having a really good time of freedom and self-determination. When I think back to this time now I have to admit that it was somehow the best time of my life. And Min was a big part of it.
If you want to know more about Min and her adventures you have to buy this book. It is totally amazing, I read it on the toilet and stayed there for two days until I finished reading. Reading this book is like breathing in the air of the Kyrgizian Plateau, it is like smelling the fart of Raimon while riding close behind him. It is just a best seller. It is the book that takes you and never leaves you. Absolute recommendation! Buy it!

📍防疫第四招：寫一封英文信

Dear Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus,

Have you ever visited Taiwan? It is a small island right next to China that has an area of 35,808 square kilometers with 23.6 million inhabitants. YES. We have our own constitution, our own government and our democratically elected leaders. We are a sovereign state.

And YES. Taiwan is a developed country. Although Taiwan has been excluded and blocked or barred from many international organizations and communities due to China’s interference and suppression, Taiwan still managed to have the best healthcare system and advanced medical technologies among the best in the world.

Do you still remember? In the end of 2019, it was Taiwan that warned WHO and China about possible human-to-human transmission of the new coronavirus, but Chinese authorities silenced doctors and refused to admit. Then what have you done?

You did not make it public! You tolerated China’s lack of transparency and decided to be their accomplice in making the coronavirus pandemic a global catastrophe.

You deliberately put people’s health at risk, and now the whole world suffers from China’s initial denials, continuous cover-ups and your inability. Unfortunately, COVID-19 had 91,595 deaths by today. How much more to come?

_

No one judges you because of your race or skin color, nor hairstyle nor gender, but your dereliction of duty! And, hey, those judgments and complaints actually come from not only Asia, not just Europe, but all over the world!

You have always treated Taiwan’s absence in WHO with indifference. Like a wicked ally of China. And when this whole coronavirus gone wild, you continued to refuse all the kind warnings and messages from Taiwan. We’re always here, and we’re willing to help.

How dare you accuse Taiwan of these unfounded allegations when you’ve always been the person with power who keeps discriminating and trampling Taiwan and Taiwanese people the whole time?

In Taiwan, we value human rights, liberty and equality. We are always described kind and friendly. Yet facing injustice, on no account must we endure. We strongly oppose your malicious smear and bullying. We demand a public apology from you to Taiwan and Taiwanese people.

#shameonyouTedros
#shameonyouWHO

—

彈到屎 / 動詞 介詞 名詞 /

n. 台語念比較傳神

有時候當一個人太邪惡（比如希特勒）或太可惡（比如毛澤東），我們不會有機會歧視他；我們只能無視他，然後想辦法讓自己更強大。

有點孤單，但非常堅強。

但還是難免，彈到屎。

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昨天氣到決定寫一封英文信，結果寫到大半夜可惡。好久沒寫英文作文，好生疏喔天啊😂 我只想做個好國民，但當個好國民有點累🙄

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😎特別說明：據說有些人的FB會自動把我的英文信翻譯成中文，記得把功能關掉才能看到英文原文～

我的中文不可能寫得那麼不流暢好嗎😎