🌻另一個Zoom會議(第二次貼......有補上一些內容)
繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).
主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算基礎的估值會議)
主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment　(此為小揚的粉絲頁)
參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.
時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間９點.
預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問
進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)

🌻Morgan Stanley Mid-year Investor Outlook: A tricky transition

https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/midyear-2021-global-markets-outlook

🌻在您投資生涯中, 有沒有一些觀念讓您受用很多?
下面這位投資名人的好觀念影響我很深. 他的意思是, 一般投資人, 只要能説出三個買一家公司的理由, 就很夠了. 這也迫使我, 每次在買股票時, 問自己對這家公司的了解有多少. 也會去衡量公司的優點與缺點在哪裡.

"It is vital (重要的) that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks."

全文在此:
Jim Cramer: In Times Like This, Go for the Easy Money
Look at the stocks you own. Can you tell me why you've got them? If you can't answer the following three questions, then have a look at several I like right now.

We've endured the meme stock craziness, with all of its love for heavily shorted stocks. We have watched the collapse of bitcoin to levels viewed as shocking, even if they are still more than double where they were not that long ago. We've dealt with Fed officials making it clear that they are no longer on the side of the bulls or the bears. They are on the side of job growth, but are wary of inflation. We've seen the end of the rush to get vaccines, which means that millions of people are going to get the new COVID variant, because there is no natural immunity to it. We've watched as the hopes for an infrastructure bill have collapsed. We've endured shortages of everything from chips to plastic to imported goods and labor.

And we're still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Yep, we are in one of those halcyon moments, where the masks are off -- even if they shouldn't be -- and Americans are back doing what they do best: consume, spend, go out to eat and then consume and spend some more.

There are times in the stock market where the collective mindset is revealed. This is one of those times: Things are cool, it's not a big moment, there's no real news for a bit, it's the historically strong period and we can reach some conclusions about where we are.

When things are like this, it is important to remember that buyers like to revert to tried-and-true companies that thrive no matter what. These are companies that have an edge and are better at what they do than other companies.

You know that I am a great believer in index funds, that the average person doesn't have the time or the inclination to research individual stocks. It's a difficult barrier. I think you need to make time to read the quarterly report and listen to the conference call, to Google articles and, if possible, get some research about the companies you own. It is vital that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks. I am reminded by this, because, once again, without a mask, I can be recognized and if I am not holding "Nvidia the Second," I can carry on a conversation.

I have had many in the last two weeks and when I have asked this litany of questions, I find myself at a loss as to why almost no one knew what they owned. But they thirsted for individual stocks, because they, like me, think things are better post pandemic. No, that's not a facetious comment. Many, many stocks did better with a stay-at-home economy. A huge number.

So what do I do? I revert to what others do when you are stumped about how to stay in touch with stocks, but want to do less homework. That means buying stocks that are accessible, not stocks like Unity (U) or Snowflake (SNOW) or Twilio (TWLO) or Okta (OKTA) .

I revert to normal businesses people know and I suggest they Google some articles, peruse the conference call, but, above all, like the company's products so you can buy more if it goes down.

Here's some that I have been telling people I like:

First is Ford (F) . I think the Ford lineup is amazing. The electric F-150 series will be incredible. I am eager to get a Maverick for my family, because it is a smaller pickup that will get the job done for the myriad little things I need to do with this farm I bought from that crazy bitcoin foray. I like the competitive edge of the CEO, who says he is going to bury Elon Musk when the Lightning comes out. I even think the Bronco is cool as all get out. Most important, though? I think the chip shortage is ending. My semiconductor friends are telling me the foundries are producing more feature-rich chips and that means Ford can pump out the trucks small business people love and need. Plus, the used car prices at last have plateaued, according to their most important pricing index. Halcyon times.

Second, Costco (COST) : The samples are coming back. Tell me you don't love the samples. You need things in bulk. You want low prices. You want to get all of the things that people don't think of with Costco, like insurance, hearing-aids -- hey, they are a fortune -- jewelry, things around the house. You go and you will buy far more than you first came for. My kind of store.

The kids love this American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) , which we just bought for my charitable trust, which you can follow along by joining the Action Alerts PLUS club. Jay Schottenstein, the CEO, came on "Mad Money" recently and it's clear that his Aerie model has real staying power: 26 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. No flash in the pan, that one. Number one brand in jeans for the 15 to 25 year old group. The best in the mall. How did I know this? I see the credit card bills.

I got up this morning to do my physical therapy. I have been doing it ever since I hurt my back in February. I have this really cool pair of sneakers that fit me perfectly and I love them, but I am fortunate enough to have a vacation house and I am always taking those shoes with me.

So I went on Amazon (AMZN) this morning and lo and behold I saw them for half price. I bought two pairs. Then I went over everything I have bought in the last year and got a bunch of those things. Then I bought a pair of binoculars, because mine were stolen. I paid half price.

Yep, Amazon's universal. I was talking to Alexa, while I was ordering, getting some new music on, asking questions. I saw that despite all of the Sturm und Drang of Amazon being late with things, all the delivery dates were within range. I didn't click on any ads, and I didn't need the speed of Web Services, but the whole thing reminded me about how special the darned company is. I don't care if it's ahead or behind plan for the moment. I would just buy some more when it goes down.

Finally, Apple (AAPL) . I think people who don't own Apple should look what they are holding at this very moment. Yes, right now. Or look at what's in your lap or on the table besides your fork. And then think about the bill you paid last night without knowing it. Think about what you bought in the App store yesterday. Think about what would happen if it would break or get stolen or, left in the Uber (UBER) , or heaven forbid, be dropped into the pool or in the, yes, toilet.

There, that's what you buy in halcyon times. Stocks of companies you know that if they go lower, because things get less halcyon, you are fine with it and buy more. If things go up, believe me, you will participate.

So accept the moment. Don't try for the hard money. Go for the easy kind. That's the best kind.

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer--15692051

Picture: 牡丹(peony)花開. 恨不得院子裡有一塊地是牡丹園.

=================================
Have to、Need to、Must、どれも一緒？
=================================
　
Have to、Need to、Mustは全て「〜をしなければならない」を意味するのは既にご存知かと思いますが、それぞれに微妙なニュアンスの違いがあり、相手への伝わり方も若干異なることを知っていますか？今日それらを適切に使い分けするためのポイントご紹介したいと思います。
　
　
--------------------------------------------------
1) Have to
→「（外的条件による）しなければならない」
--------------------------------------------------
　
Have toは「義務」としてしなければならないことを表します。個人的な意思ではなく、外部の要因や周囲の判断によって為さざるを得ない状況で使われます。例えば、報告書を午後５時までに上司に提出しないといけない場合は「外的条件による義務」になるので、「I have to turn in the report by 5 p.m.」になります。
　
✔Have got toはHave toと同じ意味を持ち、日常会話でもよく使われるでインフォーマルな表現です。会話ではI have got toを短縮し、I've gottaと砕いて言うとよりナチュラルです。
　
＜例文＞
　
I have to go to work today.
（今日は仕事にいかなければいけません）
　
You have to take your medication every day.
（毎日薬を服用しなければいけません）
　
I've gotta help my friend move tomorrow.
（明日友達の引越しを手伝わなければいけません）
　
　
--------------------------------------------------
2) Need to
→「（必要性による）しなければならない」
--------------------------------------------------
　
Need toはある目標や出来事を達成するための「〜をする必要がある」のニュアンスがあります。外的要因に影響されるものではなく、自分の考えや意思による「しなければならない」を表します。例えば、痩るために運動をしなければならない場合は、「I need to exercise.」になります。痩るという目標を達成するには運動が「必要」であることを表します。
　
＜例文＞
　
I need to study English.
（英語を勉強する必要があります）
　
If you want to play on the baseball team, you need to practice.
（野球のチームでプレーをしたいなら、練習をする必要があります）
　
I need to go to the bank tomorrow.
（明日銀行に行く必要があります）
　
　
--------------------------------------------------
3) Must
→「しなければならない/〜に違いない」
--------------------------------------------------
　
Mustは状況によって「義務」と「必要性」両ニュアンスを含みます。主にイギリス英語では「〜しなければならない」の意味として使われますが、アメリカ英語では「〜に違いない/〜でしょう」のように、何かを強く推定および推測をする場面で使われることが一般的です。例えば、冬に半袖を着ている人を見かけたときに「He must be cold.（彼は寒いでしょうね）」という具合で使われます。
　
✔アメリカとイギリスでは使い方に若干違いがあります。
　
I must finish my homework tonight.
（今夜、宿題を終わらさなければいけません）
　
You must be tired. You should go home.
（疲れているんでしょう。もう帰ったら？）
　
You must be Mike's sister. I'm Peter.
（マイクさんの妹ですよね？私はピーターです）
　
　
　
　
　
～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～
　
無料メルマガ『1日1フレーズ！生英語』配信中！
　
通勤・通学などのちょとした合間を利用して英語が学べるメルマガ『1日1フレーズ！生英語』を平日の毎朝6時に配信中！ただ単にフレーズを紹介しているだけではなく、音声を使った学習プロセスが組み込まれているので、メルマガを読むこと自体が学習方法！
　
https://hapaeikaiwa.com/mailmagazine/
　
～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～

#孩子的作業，還是家長的作業？到底怎麼做作業？
👉部落格：https://vivaliwa.tw/homework/
　　
有時候學校的作業內容很難掌握，像一個大班的孩子，要如何完成「製作一張自己姓名故事」的小海報呢？這張海報上面有三個區塊：我的姓名、這是我、我名字的故事。首先在「這是我」的部分，我們一起選出一張他自己的照片貼上，done。接下來剩下不會寫自己名字的部分，以及我整個看著發呆不知如何下手的「我名字的故事」。
　　
他不會寫中文字也不會中文拼音，這些命名由來的故事用英文他也不會寫，那我們要如何完成呢？像這種情形，做作業最快速的方式就是爸媽跟他介紹自己名字的由來以後，下面就大人幫他手寫/打字印出來，這樣超快就結束了。畢竟他就不會寫中文字啊！不然要怎樣呈現呢？但我糾結放不下的點是：「這是孩子的作業，大人應該插手嗎？我該教他用什麼心態面對作業呢？」（我覺得自己真是想太多了）在盯著這張小海報那短短一分鐘內，我內心千頭萬緒來回攻防交戰許多次，最後還是無法過我心裡這關，腦中浮現的是：我應該全都讓他自己做才行，不從我手上為他寫下一個字。問題是，該怎麼做？老師，你何苦這樣為難家長，讓我好想唱左右為難啊～
　　
/
　　
後來想一想，不會寫，好像只能先讓他用畫的，那就把自己名字三個字義畫出來吧！這樣至少也懂他名字每一個字的含意，衍生的期望則是能畫的就畫，很難畫出來的就放棄。這樣他上台報告時，就算一時緊張忘記，至少也能看著一些圖來講故事，知道自己為什麼叫這名字。最後呢，再用聽寫的方式，讓他寫上爸媽對他的期望一句英文句子，雖然聽寫也算是靠爸媽的小作弊，但我也真的是盡力了，不然只畫幾個像是古人刻在石頭上的甲骨文畫作，似乎好像也有點難交出去啊（掩面）
　　
這樣原本大人可能三兩下幾分鐘就能完成的作業，我們總共花了一個小時來做，想起來對時間的利用也很揪心，原本想做其他事都不能做了。可是，我還是相信正確的觀念，值得我們用更多的時間或勞動來達成。而且看到老師反饋的評語（如首圖下方那兩排中文字）就覺得好吧！還好自己還是follow my heart選擇這樣做了。（還是老師對每個小孩的評語都是如此？我想應該是喔！哈哈哈）
　　
/
　　
說到「自己認為」正確的觀念（不代表就是正確，而是個人主觀看法），我就想到最近上海許多幼兒園的孩子包括我們，都在準備一所學校的考試，競爭之激烈就好像要考台大一樣（連想要報名而已，名額每次釋出一些，每週一都要用搶的，有人搶幾個禮拜才搶到）。為了考上，有些人可能已經準備一年了，許多人都去補習或請家教，費用之昂貴大家可能很難想像。不過重點不只是費用，而是為求一個幼升小考試而要花錢送孩子去補習的這件事情本身，就很讓我心裡過不去。對我來說，在家怎樣自學是一回事，真的送去補習又是另一件事，雖然以學習目標是一樣的，但意義很大不同，有人能懂我的意思嗎？
　　
/
　　
所以這就是為什麼自己教，必須找方法、找教材、處理孩子與媽媽的情緒很心苦的情況下，就算每次衝突的當天，我都有衝動乾脆找老師來教，但到最後都還是決定得自己來的原因。一個被自己很多價值觀綑綁的媽媽，這一生註定就是要強迫修煉自己啊！或說，當媽媽敞開大腿生下孩子的那一刻，人生的煉獄試煉場同時為父母敞開。想要在育兒這場nonstop人生戰役下存活，在親子關係、夫妻關係、自我關係這三方面都必須不斷強迫自己level up。
　　
即使還有很多可以改進的地方，我也想大大表揚我自己一下！從我決定讓翰翰頒發貼紙給我之後，我就沒有再因為他學習態度言行不好或教了n遍還不會而生氣了，目前已經連續得到10張貼紙囉！在這憋到內傷和承受很多心理壓力的日子，必須得自我肯定才行（笑）
　　
/
　　
又，為何現在學校念得好端端的要去病態考試？主要就是國際學校學費極度昂貴，性價比頗低，在龍鳳明年即將去上學，有三筆學費要付的情況下，媽媽還是希望有機會的話能在兼顧學校信譽及教學品質情況下，為家庭經濟壓力減負一下啊！學校一樣好，搞不好應該說是教更好的情況下，學費只需要一半，是不是需要去try一下？哈哈（其實是苦笑）對於這次的考試，我其實是抱著不會考上的心態準備的，因為考題真的非常不容易，有能力不見得會考試，更何況有很多部分還真的是能力不足XD 況且，我們已經算是有學校保底，不怕沒有好學校念的情況下，準備起來都感到壓力了，可想而知那些必須全力一搏、申請考試很多家才有學校念的家庭有多壓力山大！對於這些情況的人，爸媽送去補習我也是能理解的，因為不拼就沒機會了。畢竟上海的好學校與爛在學校師資、教學內容、環境還有學費可說是天差地別。
　　
/
　　
其實，大家都知道念好學校不等於將來就很會很成功、很幸福，現在全球競爭激烈的情況下，小孩也真是蠻辛苦的。不過就像爸媽用上一代的成長歷程與價值觀放在我們這一代，我們常覺得不合時宜一樣，現在換我們當爸媽之後，若也用「我們以前小時候都沒在看書或都在玩」的教育模式套在我們孩子身上，有沒有可能將來也會產生一些問題？孩子有一天會不會疑惑怎麼同學都會，但自己什麼都不會而變得非常沒自信，反而放棄學習？會不會有那麼一點埋怨父母為何都不栽培或幫他們提早規劃？哎呀～當爸媽實在很難！太多要權衡、太多要拿捏分寸，除了健康、才藝、社交、價值觀、待人處事方法與親子關係等之外，還要精巧掌握學業的強度。我個人是相信在玩的時間足夠且還能應付的範圍內，在小時候稍微努力一點，長久累積下來的能力與建立起的自信，絕對能在將來的競爭力與選擇權上帶來幫助。當然，對於人格與價值觀培養，最重要的還是來自家庭，健康與家庭絕對over everything，而且每個人認為重要的事情都不同！爸媽也要注意不要逼死自己，也許跟孩子的關係，最好還是像郭葉珍老師說的，維持在「陪伴支持但不共生」，才會比較健康。
　　
/
　　
教育從來不是一件簡單的事。每當太多心思意念的這個時候，就會覺得生一個孩子好像輕鬆多了（還是別在上海念書輕鬆多了更實際XD）。三個孩子有三種個性、三種能力、三種命，爸媽時間要分成三份之外，還要付三份學費啊（哭哭）
　　
但，三個寶貝，三人的互動，五人的家庭還是無價之寶。神的恩典夠我用，不要看眼下的苦難，要抬頭仰望恩典。我當卸下我的憂慮交托給祂，保有喜樂的心，凡事忍耐、凡事相信、凡事盼望！