【After Winning Majority in LegCo: Beijing's Crackdown May Trigger International Intervention】

***感謝Hong Kong Columns - Translated，將我早前撰寫『議會過半想像：以「#國際攬炒」反制「臨立會2.0」』長文（https://www.facebook.com/joshuawongchifung/photos/a.313299448762570/2887650867994069/）翻譯成英文，鼓勵國際社會關注立會選舉一旦過半的沙盤推演，在最惡劣形勢下的制衡策略。***

中文精簡版本：https://www.facebook.com/joshuawongchifung/photos/a.564294826996363/2888641404561682/

Hongkongers have experienced our revolution for over half a year. They no longer take a consequentialist view to the effectiveness of their movement as they did years ago, or waste time second-guessing the intentions and background of fellow activists. Following the defensive battles at CUHK and PolyU, November’s District Council election saw a great victory of unity. More marvellous is the union between peaceful and “valiant” protesters.

In the process of resisting tyranny, the people have realised that one cannot prioritize one strategy over another. This is also how the common goal of “35+” came into being—the hope that we will win over half of the seats in the Legislative Council (LegCo) this September, such that the political spectrum that represents the majority of Hongkongers is able to gain control of legislative decisions. The political clout of Hongkongers will increase if 35 or more seats are successfully secured on our side. It is certainly one vital step to achieve the five demands within the system.

The possibility of realizing legislative majority

Technically it is not unrealistic to win a majority even under the current undemocratic system. Back in the 2016 LegCo election, we already won 30 seats. In addition to the District Council (First) functional constituency seat that is already in the pocket of the pan-democrats, as long as the candidates in Kowloon East and New Territories West do not start infighting again, we could safely secure 33 seats based on the number of pan-dem votes in 2016.

The other 3 seats required to achieve a majority depend on democrats’ breakthrough among the functional constituencies by dispersing the resources of the Liaison Office. They also count on whether the turnout this September could exceed 71.2% — that of last year’s District Council elections. Some of the factors that could affect the turnout include: will the epidemic persist into the summer? Will there be potential violent repression of protests in the 2 weeks preceding the election? Will Hong Kong-US relations be affected by the downturn of the global economy?

Therefore, the ambition of “35+” is to be prioritised by the resistance as both a means and an end. I have already expressed my support for an intra-party primary at the coordination meeting. In the meantime, it is pleasing to see the ongoing debates reaching a consensus of maximising the seats among geographical constituencies in the upcoming election.

Whilst enthusiastic coordination, we should also assess the post-election landscape and gauge Beijing’s reactions: if we do not reach 35 seats, Hong Kong will be subject to tighter control and more severe repression by China; but if the democratic parties successfully form a majority in LegCo, CCP’s fears of a “constitutional crisis” would become imminent. Hence, the key questions are how the Pan-Democrats should deal with the volatile political situation in Hong Kong and how they are going to meet Beijing’s charge head-on.

Watching out for Beijing’s dismissal of LegCo after reaching majority

To take back control of LegCo such that it faithfully reflects the majority’s principles and needs is the definition of a healthy democracy. Recently, however, DAB’s Tam Yiu-chung has warned that the plan of the Pan-Dems to “usurp power” in the LegCo would only lead to Beijing’s forceful disqualification of certain members or the interpretation of the Basic Law. This proves that winning a majority in LegCo is not only a popular conception but also a realistic challenge that would get on the nerves of Beijing. Could Beijing accept a President James To in LegCo? These unknown variables must be addressed upon achieving a majority.

While there is no telltale sign as to Beijing’s exact strategy, we are already familiar with the way CCP manipulated the Basic Law in the past 4 years. Having experienced three waves of disqualifications in LegCo, twice kicked out of LegCo with my team, and thrice locked up in jail, I have no false hopes of an easy compromise from Beijing: they would not let Pan-Dems control LegCo for half a year and wait (as is the proper procedure) until after having negatived the Budget to dissolve the legislature, and thereby giving them an easy victory in the re-elections. The greater the Pan-Dems threaten Beijing’s rule in Hong Kong, the more likely that it will trigger Beijing’s repression.

Since the disqualification and arrest of lawmakers have already become “normalised”, one can even imagine the police stepping into the LegCo building to force Pan-Dems into voting. Neither is it beyond our imagination to expect the CCP to kick out all 70 lawmakers in a fit of rage and replace them with a provisional LegCo “2.0” [HKCT note: The first was from 25 Jan 1997 to 30 Jun 1998]. To depend on a majority that could lead to a chapter of a “new testament” for One Country, Two Systems is perhaps what many elites long for, but they are overly optimistic:for a ticket to the promised land will not be available at the Chief Executive election campaign a year and a half later.

Admittedly, the Pan-Dems cannot unilaterally initiate “Laam-chaau” [HKCT note: mostly translated into “scorched-earth” mentality or “mutual destruction”; some even translated into “If I burn, you burn with us”]. The most they can do is to force a standstill of the government, and not for long the LegCo will have been eliminated from the equation to make the wheels turn again. It all leaves the plan of “Negativing the motion → Dissolving LegCo → Re-election after re-election → the stepping down of Carrie Lam” merely as overly positive speculation, probably resulting from their overestimate of CCP's capacity for rational calculation. The Pan-Dems must guard their frontlines and recognise what the biggest threat from Hong Kong to China could be. In this case, should LegCo sessions be disrupted or suspended, the Pan-Dems would have to be well prepared to surmount the expected obstacles and prevent the disqualification crisis 4 years ago—a Catch-22 indeed.

Productive tension from global intervention: Using Laam-chaau against the CCP

What aggravates the CCP the most is the potential threat to Hong Kong’s unique status as the one and only “separate customs territory”. Any miscalculation will compromise its role as the Chinese economy’s “white gloves”. Imagine if CCP were to disqualify all 70 elected lawmakers and convene a meeting north of the Shenzhen River to pass a resolution to Hong Kong’s affairs (much like the Provisional Legislative Council “1.0" in 1997), how great will the shock be in a world with an effective Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act? However hard it is to predict the future one thing is certain: With the US presidential election just around the corner, blows to the separation of powers would not be tolerated, and the West would necessarily effect countermeasures against the Hong Kong government.

Beijing has been relying upon Hong Kong to navigate the international community for decades. While clamping down on the political freedom of the cosmopolitan city, Beijing desires to maintain the financial centre’s economic freedom. Hence, we started lobbying for the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act four years ago, and today we are determined to promote “Laam-chaau” on an international scale.

The will of the voters must be reflected in an election. If a “35+” legislature were to be dismissed and replaced, such flagrant violation of democracy would assuredly cause a greater backlash than the infamous extradition bill. Knowing what the reality ahead of us could be, we have to combine our election and international strategies to oppose the placement of a 35+ LegCo with an “Emergency Legislative Council 2.0”, to advance an international “Laam-chaau” to Hong Kong’s status as “separate customs territory”. Only then will we stand a chance to resist the regime and to realise the five demands.

Adjusting our mindset: Overcoming the “constitutional crisis” to reach a resolution

Upon the realization of the “35+” LegCo, it is expected that the CCP will launch a devastating counterattack. The Pan-Dems should not expect LegCo to run normally; neither can the lawmakers realise their governing blueprints they have for Hong Kong. Rather, candidates will be able to compete against one another with visions of a liberated Hong Kong through popular vote. Bringing this point up has nothing to do with undermining the common goal of reaching a majority in LegCo, but rather channels the battle of LegCo to positive use upon the rule of law’s death and a “constitutional crisis” ahead. Knowing that Hongkongers have nothing to fall back on, all Pan-Dems should not miss the only way to the realization of “35+”.

Thus, be they partisans, nonpartisans, incumbent politicians, amateur politicians, or the civil society as a whole – if we stay in the political discourse of 2016 and continue to perpetuate old stereotypes, that is to deal with the divisions on the pan-democratic camp by favouring the most “local” faction; to consider only resource allocation and self-aggrandizement as the purpose of a LegCo campaign; to ignore how potential lawmakers are fitted to what specific roles; to turn a blind eye to the journey of resistance since last summer (extending indefinitely into the future)—They would lead as astray and cost us lose a precious opportunity for change by winning a 35+ majority.

The extent to which the pan-democrats can stay united in light of the political atmosphere since last summer is another problem that our side must to address. Before the watershed moment of 12th June 2019, many democratic delegates were trapped in the mentality of needing to “preserve people’s livelihood”, “be content of what we have accomplished”, and other strategies that favours stability. As the government refuses to heed to the five demands, whether the democrats, especially those in the functional constituencies, have the political will to go all-in is the real difficult question that confronts us in the upcoming LegCo election.

All in all, if “35+” cannot be realised, it is unsurprising to see LegCo being more heavily suppressed in the next 4 years; even if "35+" is achieved, it is questionable whether the pan-democrats are able to weather multiple attacks, verbal or physical, from the regime (judging from its power in the last four years) and utilise the international Laam-chaau strategy against the displacement of LegCo. Adhering to the motto of “we fight on, each in his own way”, I can only hope that Hongkongers in elections, street confrontations and international front can reconcile with each other, so that we may collectively compel the government to yield to our demands in the next six months. It is only by reaching a resolution before a real constitutional crisis that we can combat the institutional violence of the regime and not be devoured by it.

https://hkcolumn.blogspot.com/2020/04/joshua-wong-after-winning-majority-in.html?fbclid=IwAR216gf53pG_j9JOpDfr2GItvjLfrFSekKTPzoEs3-s9KBqvPEwz865P8vw

潛水分享系列🌊:
Suunto D5 發佈會🌟

其實，由開始接觸潛水開始🧜🏽‍♀️
小妹一直認為Suunto 錶外型是各款潛水錶中最討好的，最重要是平時出街也可配戴，對於貪靚的女生這是非常重要的😍
奈何一班潛友也是Mare粉絲，而且以前的suunto沒有自行充電的關係，所以都沒有用過D4/ D6👉🏻👈🏻

新推出的Suunto D5配備了MIP display功能，強光下潛水資料亦一覧無遺☀️
而且還可自行充電，充電兩小時可潛六至十小時，
而不潛水的話可用足一星期🔋
還有繁體中文版！！無聽錯是真繁體，應該是史上第一隻潛水錶有繁體中文顯示的啊，好感動.....😭
錶帶是快拆的而且有32款選擇適合不同時候心情❤️🧡💛💚💙💜🖤❤️🧡💛💚💜🖤
而潛完水可以把數據立即上傳到電話apps📲
隨時隨地分享到facebook / Ig, 即時厄like亦得💁🏻‍♀️得左✔️‼️

總結Suunto D5功能⏱
重90G
MIP DISPLAY
LED背光燈
震動提示功能
可充電鋰電池
18種語言 (包括繁體中文)
Suunto fused 2 rgmb
藍芽傳輸連接至新的Suunto apps
模式 : Air / Nitrox / Gauge / Free / Watch
可快速更換錶帶

慘了.....好心動🤦🏿‍♀️🤦🏿‍♀️🤦🏿‍♀️

Suunto Diving Hong Kong
Suunto

#suunto
#suuntod5
#scubadiving
#divingcomputer

又到了2018的最後一天，
在這邊預祝大家新年快樂，
今年我們發了一張迷你專輯，
【別再掩飾你的厭世】
目前還有庫存，請多多支持，
今年我們的演出歷程如下

1/13 臺中【舊年電影院x廟口此聲】
2/14 彰化 福大錄昌 【春節鉅獻】 w/老破麻
2/24 高雄百樂門 【越戰鶴獵人】w/轟感&佬步槍
3/3 彰化 【元宵晚會】
3/10 彰化 【叫春小搖滾】
4/5 墾丁【春天吶喊】
4/7 彰化【國際言論自由日】
4/7 嘉義【東石 烏魚祭】
4/20 臺北 Revolver Burning Beak EP發片場 w/ Burning Beak&鱷魚樂團
5/2 彰化 【彰師大熱音分享】
5/4 彰化 彰師大熱音社【Just Play】
5/13 臺中 迴響藝文展演空間【唱故事，講幹話】w/90狂熱
7/6 臺中 迴響藝文展演空間【別再掩飾你的厭世】發片巡迴 w/90狂熱、Break one's all
7/14 高雄 百樂門 【別再掩飾你的厭世】發片巡迴 w/繞圈圈、社會人
7/15 台南 TCRC 【別再掩飾你的厭世】發片巡迴w/白頻率、飯匙槍
7/20 嘉義 傲頭厝【別再掩飾你的厭世】發片巡迴 w/我夢見長頸鹿對我說、嘻扣樂團
7/22 台北 公館河岸留言【別再掩飾你的厭世】發片巡迴 w/ 緋紅樂團
7/29 彰化 福大錄昌 【別再掩飾你的厭世】發片巡迴w/ 老破麻、返憶者
8/12 彰化【回歸音樂祭4.0】
9/15 臺中 【Dali Art國際音樂節 】原創大賽初賽
9/23 臺中 【Dali Art國際音樂節 】原創大賽決賽
9/29 彰化 彰師大【大學生的第一哩路】
10/6 臺中 迴響藝文展演空間 【Rock Power of Korea 秋虎之旅】w/Burning Beak&R4-19 알포나인틴&Heavy Gauge-헤비게이지
10/7 臺北 狀態音樂 【Rock Power of Korea 秋虎之旅】w/R4-19 알포나인틴&Heavy Gauge-헤비게이지
10/7 淡水 【巨獸音樂祭】
10/20 嘉義 商演
10/27 彰化 和美【農恬好食派對】
10/28 南投 顏氏牧場 【2018無限自由藝術音樂節】
11/4 新北 三峽客家文化園區【星巢計劃】
11/10 彰化【搖滾烤肉】
11/11 桃園 【溪城憩音樂節】熱音大賽冠軍
12/22 恆春 山羊酒館 【一路嚮南】w/諾提
12/30 臺中 文心森林公園【搖滾台中跨年音樂祭】

我們明年見~~~