假民調為何比事實更受歡迎？

《紅樓夢》第五回有句警語「假作真時真亦假」，意思是當我們把虛假的東西當作真實的時候，真實的東西反而成為了虛假。

民調到底有什麼用？假民調又有什麼好處？賓狗今天就用 5 個關鍵字，告訴你為什麼網路上會充滿以假亂真的數字。

【poll 民調】
民調的原理是統計學，除了最早的街頭訪問及市話調查之外，隨著科技的發展，現在也有單位會以手機電訪、新聞網站、粉絲專頁或社群媒體即時動態的投票結果作為民調的數字。

➡️ Numbers don't lie, but people do.
（數字不會說謊，但負責統計的人會。）

【inaccuracy 誤差】
除了刻意造假之外，民調可能會因為很多原因而出現誤差，例如有些人一聽到是民調就掛電話、有些人回答了民調卻懶得出門投票、被誘導式的提問混淆而回答錯、根本沒在關心選舉而亂回答等。

另外，像是只在新潮的社群媒體上舉辦的民調，就不容易取得高齡人士的意見，或是具有明顯政黨色彩的媒體所舉辦的民調，就不容易取得其他政黨支持者的意見。

➡️ Some polls are accidentally fraught with inaccuracies, while some are purposely.（有些民調是意外充滿誤差，有些則是刻意製造誤差。）

【manipulate 操弄】
除了上述的原因之外，民調也可能在人為控制下，成為所謂的「假民調」。假民調的目的只有一個，就是操弄。一是操弄選民，二是操弄賭盤。

若Ａ候選人故意讓自己在民調中落後，就可以透過「搶救Ａ候選人」的口號督促選民去投票，也可以讓Ｂ候選人的支持者掉以輕心，覺得就算自己不去投票也會穩贏。

第二點比較少人知道，就是操弄賭盤。若Ａ候選人刻意讓自己在民調中落後，賠率就會上升，下注賭Ａ勝選的人就會增加，也會更努力讓Ａ選上。

➡️ If a presidential candidate of a democratic country blatantly asks supporters to lie to pollsters, s/he is probably trying to manipulate illegal gambling markets.（若民主國家總統候選人公然要求選民在民調作假時，其實很可能有操弄地下賭盤之虞。）

【go down without a fight 不戰而降】
某些國家只能演戲，不能投票，每到選舉期間，只能眼睜睜看著民代演出「全體一致鼓掌通過」的戲碼，所以在台灣還能夠選舉的時候，要珍惜還可以投票的機會。

➡️ If you're too lazy to vote, you go down without a fight.
（懶得出門投票，就是拱手讓討厭的候選人當選。）

【vote 公民責任之一】
除非你想移民到中國、北韓等跟選舉無緣的國家，否則就出門去蓋個章吧！

➡️ Polls mean nothing if you don't actually vote.
（再多的民調都是假的，只有票投下去才是真的。）

民主就像鼻孔，塞住的時候才知道平常有多舒服。有些人喜歡鼻塞的感覺，所以想讓霧霾進駐台灣。想繼續呼吸清新空氣的人，不要被民調影響出門投票的決心。

http://www.iwasdoingallright.com/j…/learn-jazz-ear-training/

很有意思的一篇文章
有提到以前的爵士樂學習跟現在的差異，以前是藉由聆聽來學習，而現在則是有一大堆的教材，教音階，和弦，理論。很多人似乎已無法靠著耳朵來演奏......但弔詭的是，卻可以靠著耳朵來"唱"即興演奏
再來就是提到了"聽覺能力"的差異.....
If you can hear a chord progression and effortlessly play music that fits over that progression by ear, then you'll succeed with or without formally studying jazz theory. That's because you've internalized the sounds which jazz theory attempts to explain. On the other hand, if your attempts to play by ear are fraught with mistakes as you search to find the right notes, then you don't actually have the necessary skills to play by ear. You're just "winging it," and that is a bad and lazy approach to jazz improvisation! If you are in the "winging it" category, theory can help bridge the gap between what you can and cannot hear.


（所以我們在這本教材裡要求彈奏音階時，要練習唱相對音，此時才能讓肌肉記憶與聽覺,視覺記憶和在一起，甚至在練習樂句時也應該是如此.........老王賣瓜^^）

參考影片
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbL9vr4Q2LU

【玳瑚師父隨筆錄】 《一場遊戲罷了》
It Is Only A Game (English version below)

三年前原已半退休的吾，著實讓人驚訝及不知所措。驚訝是因為吾「還年輕」，心情也很定，不該「告老還鄉」。不知所措乃吾很早就已成 為多戶家庭的家庭醫生及家庭師父，她他們一有事就立馬「飛鴿傳書」，來電的意思，尋求吾快而有效的援助。相信是長年累月的依賴，所以她他 們有以上所述之的反應，是可以理解的。

每個人似乎早已根據累世種種的「業蹟」，分配好角色與戲份，然後在好無準備的情況下，粉墨登場。從童年的喜戲不成眠，少年時的飯來 張口，衣來伸手，錢拿了就走，青年時的愛在夕陽下，職場闖蕩，壯年時的成家立業，老年的偶爾憒忘，晚年的搖搖晃晃，最後的掛在牆上。這樣 的戲份算是不錯的了，有些被分配的角色是一出場就被親生父母給殺了（墮胎），有些則一出場就殘缺，有些則一出場，就患先天性疾病，被人們 鄙視，終生鬱鬱寡歡。

在人生的旅途上，被欺負、被鄙視、被謾罵、被打壓、被批評，或不公平地對待等等，到哪裏都有。為什麼會這樣？因為這裡是人間。有修 沒修的，全部混合在一起，自然而然有上等及下等人啊！有修的就繼續精進努力，沒修的就早點起修吧！至少妳你下次出場，不用一出場就死，也 不用一出場就病入膏肓，懂嗎？

職場中的暗箭難防，官場中的狐假虎威、紙醉金迷，商場中的妳你欺我詐，都是頑迷眾生的自尋煩惱遊戲罷了！睿智的人是不會與其同流合 污的，更不用為之黯然神傷，反應常提醒自己，那祇是一場遊戲罷了。

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It was quite a surprise to many when I announced my semi-retirement 3 years ago. They were shocked because I was still young, barely of retirement age, and of stable emotion, thus should not be calling it quits so soon. They were also quite lost as many of them regarded me as their family 'doctor, and adviser whom they would ring as soon as they needed my swift and effective assistance. I guessed they have grown very reliant on me, thus their reaction upon knowing my intention to semi-retire.

It seems that everyone has been allocated a specific role and 'air-time' according to their karma accumulated over eons lifetimes. They took to the stage in total unawareness. From unbridled joy and sleepless nights during childhood, to the teenage years where they took for granted the daily meals and money, and onto young adulthood where they basked in the temptations of career and romance. This is followed by raising a family in their prime before the eventual decline into old-age forgetfulness. Their last act would end with a photo of themselves hanging on the wall, if anyone bothers to remember them. It would be quite lucky if you get to 'act' in these roles. The unlucky ones would not even survive the first scene, being killed by their own parents through abortion. Some start with physical disabilities or congenital illnesses resulting in them being despised and having little joy in their lives.

In the long journey of life, it is inevitable to be subjected to bully, verbal abuse, criticism, discrimination, pressure or unfair treatment. And you see this everywhere. Why is that so? It is because you are in the human realm where there are people of varying spiritual levels, thus you will meet people of different caliber. For those of you who have started your spiritual cultivation journey, please keep up the diligence. For those of you who still have not started, please do so fast. At least your next appearance in this 'theater of life' would not be short-lived, or fraught with illness. Do you understand?

The politics and back-stabbing at work, the intimidation and hedonistic lifestyle in officialdom as well as the deceits in the commercial world are games played by deluded sentient beings, inviting troubles and sufferings for themselves. The wise men would not be in the mix with the fools, and definitely not affected spiritually. Instead, the wise ones are constantly reminding themselves that this farce is all but a game.

Photo credit: Digital Journal