小編快報
《柏林脈動》（The Berlin Pulse) 今天出刊了。這是德國一年一度的外交及國際關係專刊。作者群包括學者、智庫專家、政府官員。

這一期談歐洲問題的作者有波蘭外長、Moldova 總理、德國國防部長等等等。

今年《脈動》特別做了中國專題，作者有五位，分別是：
中國的全國人大外事委員會副主任委員傅瑩、日本眾議會議員Minora Kiuchi、巴黎的中國問題專家Francois Godement、曾任澳洲駐華大使，現任外交及貿易秘書長的Frances Adamson，以及台灣的龍應台。

德國編輯在文末放了一個德國的民意調查圖表，提問是：「面對中國，你認為德國應該更強力保護自己的政治利益，即使犧牲經濟利益？」
答案：贊成 76%
反對 19%

小編把龍應台文章翻譯成中文，跟讀者分享。英文原文附在後面。如果嫌我翻譯得不好，那那那，那表示你英文很好，你就看英文吧......
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兩千三百萬人在獨木舟上
——為什麼歐洲應該關切台灣的未來

反對黨公布2020總統候選人名單的那一天，我在台北和知識圈的朋友們午餐。那悲觀的，用問句來表達自己的悲觀，譬如，「你覺得台灣還有多少年?」那樂觀的，用黑色幽默來表達樂觀，譬如，「感謝老天。香港讓他們太忙了，沒時間管台灣。」

跟德國一樣，台灣對中國大陸和香港的貿易順差，在2018年是831億美元。百分之四十一的對外貿易針對中國，中國大陸市場對台灣的重要不言而喻。然而，隨著近年來台灣海峽兩岸的關係緊張，反對黨(國民黨) 憂慮市場的優勢無法持續，而執政黨(民進黨) 則選擇強化選民對北京的不信任來抵制中國的影響力。執政黨最近提出的國安新法可能將任何被認定為為中國宣傳者入罪。

和歐洲一樣，台灣人對中國的感受也是複雜的。 當中國代表的是活躍的經濟機會時，很多台灣人就容易所謂「親中」，當中國代表的是壓迫和可能的入侵時，很多台灣人就是所謂的「反中」。問題是，中國兩者兼備。後果就是，台灣內部的分歧遠遠超過了僅只是政治和經濟的層面。

如果你知道台灣是如何一路走來的，你會覺得它今天變成一個民主社會真是一個不得了的成就。沒有革命，一黨獨裁四十年的國民黨，不管你說它是自願還是被迫，放下了政權，分享權力。沒有流血，昔日牢裡的政治犯變成今日的立法者和政治領袖。1987年解嚴以後，政權的交替基本上公平而有序地進行了三十年。

台灣安靜地進行了三十年的民主，時間幾乎和它的國際孤立一樣長。美國不承認台灣的國家地位，但是，就如同當年對於德國，美國也扮演了安全守護者的角色。令人不安的是，在美國宣布要把軍售台灣常態化的同時，中國也宣布，它在台灣海峽及其領空，要把軍艦和戰機的演習常態化。

所以台灣民主的威脅其實是雙重的。比較明顯的是中國的威脅，這個威脅，往往超出台灣本身的控制能力。一個不那麼明顯的威脅，卻是內部自製的。台灣的政治人物和政黨熱切拿這個威脅做為政治資本，刺激集體恐懼來強化部落式的愛國主義。這種操作的成功，對台灣的民主制度和機構本身，是個真實的危險。

國際上那些純粹為了攻擊中國而故意把台灣捧在手心讚美的人，其實讓我坐立不安。一代又一代的台灣人為民主付出了代價，很大的代價，而得到今天的成果。這個成果，太珍貴了，不可以變成別人或別國為了自己的利益而拿來玩弄的籌碼或棋子。

德國的歷史是特殊的。德國的人民親身目睹了，如果不戒慎恐懼地去維護，一個開放合理的社會制度是如何容易地瓦解，一夜之間可以被獨裁取代。經歷了二戰，又擺脫了共產黨的歷史爭取到自由，德國可能比很多其他國家更容易理解台灣人的困境和追求。道德勇氣的來源往往是歷史的痛苦。身為歐盟的重要成員，德國有責任為世界的和平做出最大的努力，發揮最大的影響力。

但是，歐洲憑什麼一定要關心台灣呢?

首先，如果沒有台灣模式，全世界大概就都得接受一種說法，就是，儒家文化和民主制度是無法相容的，而所謂「中國模式」就是唯一邏輯、不可避免的現代中國。台灣的存在證明了一件事：未必如此。

第二，台灣本身的努力值得世界的尊敬。沒錯，如果中國是一艘航空母艦，那麼台灣只不過是一葉孤零零的獨木舟。可是在這個獨木舟上有兩千三百萬人正在追求一種有自由、有尊嚴的生活方式。如果台灣是歐盟的一個成員，就人口論，台灣就是二十八個成員國(英國脫歐後二十七國)中第七大國，比波蘭稍小，但比荷蘭和比利時大。以經濟購買力來看，台灣更是名列全球第二十二。所以，歐洲可以想像剝奪波蘭人或者荷蘭人對生活方式和政治體制的選擇權利嗎?

23 Million People on a Canoe
—Why Europe should care about Taiwan’s future

Lung Yingtai

On the day when the opposition party announced its presidential candidate for the 2020 election, I was sitting at a lunch table in Taipei listening to my intellectual friends uttering their concerns about the future of Taiwan. The pessimists phrased their pessimism in the form of questions such as “How many years do you think Taiwan has left?” The optimists expressed their optimism with dark humour, “Thank God they will be too busy with Hong Kong and the US for a while.”

Like Germany, Taiwan operates a trade surplus with mainland China and Hong Kong, amounting to $83.1 billion in 2018. With 41% of Taiwan’s exports going to China, Taipei’s economy depends on trade with the mainland. However, given the increasing tension across the Taiwan Strait, the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) in particular has been worrying whether Taiwan will be able to sustain these figures. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party, on the other hand, is capitalizing on voters’ intense distrust of Beijing, stepping up measures to “contain” China’s influence. Taipei recently drafted a national security law that would make it a punishable offense to spread “political propaganda” for China.

As in Europe, Taiwanese feel highly ambivalent about mainland China: When China signifies economic opportunities, most Taiwanese are 23 Million People on a Canoe Why Europe should care about Taiwan’s future “pro-China”; when China represents oppression and potential invasion, most Taiwanese are “anti-China”. The problem is that China resembles both. The result is a deep division among Taiwanese extending far beyond the political and economic spheres.

Given the circumstances under which Taiwan emerged and evolved, its evolution into an authentic democracy represents an extraordinary achievement. It was without a revolution that the KMT, which had ruled Taiwan for more than 40 years, put an end to martial law and, whether convinced or compelled to act, opened the country’s political system to sharing power. Without bloodshed, dissidents who had once sat in jails became legislators and political leaders. Since the lifting of martial law 1987, power has changed hands fairly and orderly, following the results of each election.

Taiwan has been a quiet democracy for more than thirty years, nearly as long as the four decades during which it has been isolated by the international community. The US does not formally recognize Taiwan but, as with Germany, acts as the country’s security guarantor. While Washington has indicated that arms sales to Taiwan will become more of a routine, China has devised a routine of its own by holding long-range combat drills and ordering its fighter jets to cross the maritime line.

However, the threat to Taiwanese democracy is twofold. The obvious one comes from China, and to a large extent lies beyond Taipei’s control. The less obvious threat is home-made, as the looming China threat tempts domestic politicians to mobilize the population’s collective fear to foment a tribal nationalism. Their success would pose a real danger to Taiwan’s democratic institutions.

Those who applaud Taiwanese democracy for the sole purpose of criticizing China make me nervous. Generations of Taiwanese fought and ultimately achieved a democracy – it is simply too precious for other people’s agendas, internal or external.

Germany has a unique history: its people have experienced first-hand how easily democratic institutions may fall apart when not meticulously guarded. Having received democracy as a gift following World War II and struggled to regain their freedom from Communist rule, Germans are in a unique position to understand both the predicament as well as the aspirations of the Taiwanese. Moral courage often comes from past sufferings. As a leading EU member state, Germany has a responsibility to maximize its own efforts as well as to influence others’ efforts for world peace.

But why should the world care about the future of Taiwan? First of all, save the Taiwan model, the world might have to accept the claim that democracy and Confucianism are incompatible, and that a communist China presents the only logical and inevitable path to modernity. Secondly, Taiwan deserves respect on its own merits. True, if China were an aircraft carrier, Taiwan would be a lone canoe. But standing on this canoe are 23 million people aspiring for a life with liberty and dignity. If it were an EU member, Taiwan would be the 7th largest of the Union’s 28 member-states (27 after Brexit), smaller than Poland but larger than the Netherlands or Belgium, with a developed economy ranking 22nd in the world by purchasing power parity. Do we really want to return to a world in which it is imaginable that countries such as Poland or the Netherlands should be deprived of their autonomy to determine their own way of life and political system?

The Berlin Pulse 2019
龍應台專文：https://www.koerber-stiftung.de/fileadmin/user_upload/koerber-stiftung/redaktion/the-berlin-pulse/pdf/2019/3_Koerber_TheBerlinPulse_YingTai.pdf
全本：https://www.koerber-stiftung.de/fileadmin/user_upload/koerber-stiftung/redaktion/the-berlin-pulse/pdf/2019/TheBerlinPulse_2019_FINAL.pdf

【要麵包也要愛情】LOVE AND BREAD PLEASE
(English writing below)

看了三個小時的風水後， 看到一台販賣機猶如久旱逢甘露的感覺。

有些客人會請我喝水，有的客人問也不問。我個人是沒有邊看風水，邊喝東西的習慣，但客人的大方和體貼程度，我都會銘記在心，因為這些會決定我能佈多少福給這戶家人。

許多客人常常用「詳細」這字眼來形容我的服務。

我如何確保每一次都能把風水看好？

把它當成自己的家來看，自他互換。

如果我也面對債務問題，錢不夠用的困擾，工作上的煩惱，我會希望那位風水師為我做什麼？

許多人不是本來就相信風水的，尤其是在新加坡這樣洋化的社會裡，因此他們會來請我，是真的很大的心態上的轉變。

所以我會覺得自己有這責任在短短的兩小時相處裡，讓他們看到風水的珍貴價值。

對一個凡夫來說，人生變幻莫測，因為大多數的人

一個家庭，先由兩個人開始相愛，認定彼此是要長相廝守的人後，而決定在一起，心裡希望著是一生一世。

然後他們就決定買一個家，結婚，再成家。依哪一個次序，就看這對情侶有多會規劃自己的人生了。

我們經過社會的薰陶，父母的教導，認定這就是前往幸福的道路，是人生的最終目標。

接著，很多事情就開始發生了。

有的客人會問我，他們幾時會有這福氣能有孩子。

我告訴他們，每個生命都是可貴的，但不是每個孩子都是福氣來投。

兩個曾經發誓要愛到海枯石爛的人，可以因為育兒而鬧意見分歧。如果這婚姻的方程式裡還參雜了雙方父母，那這意見就會鬧得如世界大戰三那種規模了。

如果孩子很難養，常常生病，再相愛的人都會有壓力。現在又輪到誰請假來照顧孩子了？

你知道為孩子付出那麽多，最辛苦的是什麼嗎？對有些人而言，是當孩子依然「不爭氣」，讀不好書時。家裡面對的問題，現在也變成學校的問題，自己在家罵孩子還不夠，還要聽到學校的老師講一輪給你聽。

有些父母最心痛的是當孩子忤逆他們時。

我發現一個現象。有時，家裡最多麻煩事的，往往都是那些事業沒什麼問題的人。

如果他們的事業很多問題，往往家裡的孩子不怎麼會給他們頭痛，伴侶也算善解人意。

可能你就會說，這就是所謂的「公平」，因為人生不可能都盡你所願。

我說，那是廢話。說到底，是你福不夠，才不能夠都如你意。

有些八字是真的不要結婚比較好，不要生孩子比較開心。但既然我們無法改變過去，我們就來好好地看看你家的風水。

一個負債累累，常常週轉不靈的人，他的家就是長那個樣，裡頭的氣處處都阻塞。

古曰：上樑不正下樑歪。為什麼孩子那麽無禮？很多時候，因為父母也是如此，只是自己不察覺，那自自然然居家環境也會有孕育無禮後代的格式。

如果你的家死氣沈沈，你的事業便會停滯不前。

如果你的居家擺設擺在不對的卦位上，你就會常常在富與貧的邊緣掙扎著，渴望有幸福和富足，卻又遙不可及。

我個人認為，最大的問題就是很多人很習慣受苦受難。那是多麼愚蠢的想法！

有的客人私訊我說，要看風水批八字，另一方面又說什麼他們的人生沒什麼問題。很自我矛盾和自欺欺人的心態。

正式見面時，我說的越多，就會發現其實他們人生的問題可多呢！

他們彷彿被洗腦，覺得人生有很多問題是正常的。

不是這樣的，你根本不必硬去吃這個苦的。

就算和同事吃飯，每每都是在埋怨伴侶，或為孩子的事互相訴苦，不要以為人生有問題才叫正常人生。

如果真是這樣，那請問我們何必天天做得像頭牛一樣，換來的結果就是不快樂呢？這不是笨，是什麼？

一個沒有情的房子不會形成一個家。

一個有愛卻沒有錢的家，也無法擁有長久的快樂。

我不確定你是怎麼想，但我覺得要維持一個家，錢財是不可缺的。

我目睹我的父母如何因為沒有錢而吵架。

他們常常為了錢財事務而起爭執，然後，就什麼事都可以吵起來了。

年幼的我無法明白，每一次看著父母美麗的結婚照時，我都會問自己，明明好不容易才在一起的兩個人，怎麼可以吵到好像夙敵一樣？

到底哪裡出錯了？

後來分析他們的八字，再想到兒時的居住環境，才恍然大悟。

我自己也不確定今天要寫的是什麼，但每一次我見完一個客人，都會有許多感觸。

有時，我會難過，看到一些客人看不清自己的思想錯誤，或缺乏決心去改變自己的人生。

我從不放棄任何一個人，但往往有的人把自己的人生搞砸了後，會放棄改變自己。

兩年前，我看了映輝家的風水。據聞，他現在做的很不錯。我希望，不只是愛情和金錢方面，心靈和身體健康也一樣好。

他在九月份時寫了這感謝函給我。我很開心收到這信。

新加坡人普遍教育水平都很高，但是很多人根本沒有這個知識，去改善他們的命運。羅盤在手，我當然希望可以幫助越多人越好，但條件是，他們必須願意改變自己。

如果你想深入地認識你的命運，在2020年迎接新的人生，歡迎聯絡我。

www.qianyu.sg/consultations

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That’s me, delighted to find a vending machine after a 3-hour Feng Shui audit.

I was not offered any drink by the client. Haha, no lah, I think they did, but I don’t have a habit of drinking when I am on my feet working. Then again there are also clients who do not bother and I will make a mental note of their generosity. 😉

If there is one word my clients often used to describe my services, it would be — detailed.

How do I make sure I do my Feng Shui audit well?

By always imagining that it is my own home.

Put myself into the shoes of the client.

If I am facing debt problems, cash flow problems, work issues, what do I hope for the Feng Shui master to do for me?

Many people are not inherent believers of Feng Shui, especially in a Westernised society like Singapore, so for them to take the step to engage me is a very big mindset shift.

So I take it upon myself for them to see the value of Feng Shui, in the short 2 hours I have with them.

Life can be unpredictable.

It all starts out from two persons falling in love and deciding to commit each other, hopefully, for the rest of their lives.

Then they buy a house, get married and start a family. In whichever order, depending on how well-planned the couple is.

That is supposed to be the route to happiness and eventual destination in Life, as we are all taught by societal norms.

Then things just start happening.

I have clients asking me when they can get blessed with children.

I tell them, every life is precious but not every child is a blessing.

Two persons, who vow to love each other till the oceans dry out and the stones rot, can be torn apart because of parenting differences. Put in-laws in the marriage equation, and the differences blow up to WWIII proportions.

If the child is “difficult” or often sick, it puts a strain on the parents. So whose turn is it now to take paternity leave?

You know what is the hardest part after giving so much to your children? For some, it is when their children are not academically inclined - in other words, cannot study. Problems at home also become problems at school. As if scolding the children at home isn’t enough, now you have to listen to the teachers telling you.

For others, it is when their children defy them.

I notice a trend though. Sometimes it’s parents who are doing fine in their career, that seem to have the most prominent problems at home.

If their career is full of problems, their children do not give much headache and they also have an understanding spouse.

And you say, that’s why people tell you you can’t have it all, because that is how Life is being “fair”.

I say that’s rubbish. Fact is, you do not have enough good fortune to have all these good in your life. You know how to use your good fortune, but you do not know how to replenish it. So when it's gone, you are left with never-ending problems.

It’s true some Bazi are better off not married or having any children. But since we cannot reversed what had happened, your best bet is to take a long hard look at your home Feng Shui.

A person in debts or with cash flow problems will have a home that look just like that. A home of stuck energies.

There’s a Chinese saying: If the upper beam is not straight, the lower beam will be crooked. Why do you have children who are rude? Chances are that the parents themselves are such, but they do not realise.

And the home environment will have living patterns that breeds such insolence.

If your home has dead energies, your career get stuck.

If your home arrangement is not aligned to receive auspicious energies, you will always find yourself struggling for happiness and prosperity.

The problem I find with people is they are very used to suffering.
And that is dumb.

I have clients who write to me, saying that they are not facing much problems, but just want to see Feng Shui or Bazi.

Then during the analysis, the more I say, the more worms come swimming out from the can.

It is terrifying that they are conditioned to think that it is normal that Life is full of problems.

It is not. It should not be.

Even if all that you and your colleagues gossip and whine about over lunch is each other’s spouse and children, it is not NORMAL that things should be wrong.

Why would we work so hard in everything only to be unhappy? Is that stupid or what?

A house that has no love cannot be a home.

A home that has only love and no money always struggle to find lasting happiness.

I’m not sure about you, but I think money is essential to keep a family going.

I saw how the lack of money drove a wedge between my parents.

They fought over money, and then, everything else also become “quarrel-able”.

I couldn’t understand why, and every time I look at my parents’ nice studio wedding photo, I kept asking myself how could two persons who went through so much together fight as if they are each other’s foe?

Just what went wrong?

I got my answer when I could analyse their Bazi and recall the Feng Shui of my childhood home.

I’m not sure what I really want to write over here, because there is so much going on in my mind every time I see a client.

I sometimes feel so sad for the client who cannot see his/her problems or lack the resolve to work things out.

I don’t give up on anybody, but there are people who give up changing themselves after creating a mess in their own lives.

I saw the Feng Shui of Yeng Hwee’s house 2 years ago. Last I heard, he is doing well. And I hope both in love and money, and of course, health too.

He dropped me this thank-you note in September, which I was really happy to receive.

There are many highly educated people in Singapore, but unfortunately, not many are educated on how to transform their destinies, much less that of their loved ones. With my Luo Pan in hand, I aspire to help as many people as possible, but only if they are willing to work on themselves. So would you be the next one?

www.qianyu.sg/consultations

【#語錄與它們的產地｜#被誤會的愛因斯坦】
「The Futuristic Weapons of WW3 are unknown, but WW4 will be fought with stones and spears.」—— Unknown, Cold War
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在二戰使用原子彈後，全世界也因而了解到 #核武器 的威力。二戰結束後，美蘇兩國因為 #意識形態 (#資本主義 和 #共產主義) 的對立，全球局勢瀰漫著恐懼和猜疑，世界各地的人民也擔心第三次世界大戰的到來，害怕核武器會摧毀他們的國家。
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很多人以為這句說話是出自 #愛因斯坦，但早在愛因斯坦這番說話被記錄之前，社會上已經有近似的概念和說法。論點在當時社會是一個流行觀點，只是因為愛因斯坦的名氣而產生他就是句子出處的誤會。
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無論如何，句子的出現，與冷戰和核武器脫離不了關連。
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有關《語錄與它們的產地》系列：
網上流傳許多振奮人心的名言，但許多也是未經考證，或是胡亂將句子配上著名人物而傳播起來。
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新系列將講述名言背後的故事，希望藉此了解作者當時的心境，同時亦澄清名言的來源。
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