[時事英文] 蘭德智庫 (RAND): 美國的未來之戰

同學來參考一下蘭德智庫對於未來十年軍事發展的Q&A!

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🇺🇸 Let’s start with the big picture. Who are the main U.S. adversaries in 2030?
　
None of our main competitors—Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, and terrorist groups—are going away, and some of them will probably strengthen. China will become a more formidable threat as its economic and military influence increases. We're not going to have the same freedom of movement that we have with China now.
　
1. a more formidable threat 更為難纏的威脅
2. freedom of movement 行動自由
　
讓我們著眼大局。時至２０３０年，誰是美國的主要對手？
　
我們的主要競爭者——俄羅斯、中國、北韓、伊朗以及恐怖組織——都沒有消失，其中有些國家或組織可能會愈發強大。隨著經濟與軍事影響力的增長，中國將成為更加難纏的威脅。屆時面對中國的我們，將不再擁有今日的行動自由。
　
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🇺🇸 How do you see the global economic picture changing?
　
The United States and its allies are going to lose some of their share of global economic output. China is growing, and growing at the expense of our allies, particularly the Europeans. If you think about economics as the underlying bedrock that allows you to produce military capabilities, that trend is the opposite of what you want to see.
　
3. global economic output 全球經濟產出
4. at the expense of 以……為代價
5. the underlying bedrock 潛在的基石
6. military capabilities 軍事能力
　
如何看待全球經濟情勢的轉變？
　
美國與盟邦將喪失其於全球經濟產出的部分份額。中國正以犧牲我們盟邦——尤其是歐洲——的方式成長。若你將經濟視為提升軍事能力的基礎，那麼此一趨勢與你所見者恰好相反。
　
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🇺🇸 How will environmental change play into this?
　
First, it will have an effect on where we can base. Some of our installations around the world are in places that will be threatened by climate change—they're in low-lying areas or flood plains, for example. But second, it also will have a destabilizing effect. Some of the places that will be hardest hit by droughts or rising sea levels tend to have weaker governments. That could increase domestic instability, and more domestic instability can lead to terrorism and civil war, the kind of sub-state conflict that we've been dealing with for the last decade or so.
　
7. base (v.) 以某處作為主要地點；將某地設為總部
8. installation （尤指用於軍事目的的）設施
9. low-lying areas 低窪地區
10. flood plains 洪泛平原；泛濫平原；澇原
11. a destabilizing effect 一個不穩定的因素
12. be hard hit by… 受到……的重創
13. increase domestic instability 增加國內動盪
14. lead to 導致
15. sub-state conflict 次國家衝突
　
環境變遷將如何產生影響？
　
首先，它將影響我們基地的選址。我們遍布全球的某些設施處於受氣候變遷威脅的地方——位於低窪地區或澇原。但第二，氣候變遷也會造成不穩定的因素。在一些受嚴重乾旱或海平面上升衝擊的地方，其政府通常較為軟弱。這可能會加劇國內動盪，而更多的國內動盪會導致恐怖主義與內戰，此類次國家衝突是我們近十年來一直在處理的問題。
　
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🇺🇸 What role will domestic politics in the United States play?
　
We've seen a steady trend over the last several decades toward increasing polarization among the U.S. electorate. That creates some significant constraints. Just to get the defense bill passed requires a bipartisan consensus, and that will face increasing pressure in the years to come. We're also seeing a second major trend, which is a growing push to retrench, to pull the U.S. back from a global posture.
　
16. a steady trend 一個穩定的趨勢
17. increasing polarization 日益加劇的兩極化
18. the U.S. electorate 美國選民
19. a bipartisan consensus 兩黨的共識
20. retrenchment strategy 緊縮策略
　
美國的國內政治將扮演什麼角色？
　
在過去的幾十年裡，我們看到一個穩定的趨勢——美國選民的兩極化日益加劇。這形成了一些重要的約束。為使國防法案通過，便需兩黨的共識，而在未來的幾年中，其所面臨的壓力將愈發龐大。我們還看見了第二個重要趨勢，即緊縮的聲音持續增長，要求美國自全球態勢中抽身。
　
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🇺🇸 What should the United States be doing to prepare for 2030?
　
We probably need more longer-range platforms, for example, but there's really no silver bullet. The bigger finding is that the United States is going to increasingly face a grand-strategic choice. It can double down on its role for the last three decades as the world's leading superpower, in which case it needs to spend more on defense and defense capabilities than it has.
　
21. longer-range platforms 更長程載臺
22. face a grand-strategic choice 面對巨大的戰略選擇
23. double down on sth 加倍努力；決心完成
24. the world's leading superpower 世界領先的超級大國
25. defense capabilities 防衛能力

美國應為２０３０年做怎樣的準備？
　
舉例來說，我們可能需要更多更長程的載臺，惟確無萬靈丹。更大的發現是，美國所面臨的巨大戰略選擇將愈發增加。美國可以加倍努力，扮演好自己在過去三十年裡，領導世界的超級大國角色。如此，美國便需要在國防與防衛能力上投入更多的資金。
　
《RAND》完整內容：https://bit.ly/33Nb7mX

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【#每日跟讀單元 833】

摘要:
In Japan, men are generally expected to demonstrate total loyalty to their employers, often at their families’ expense. The announcement from Mr. Koizumi, whose father, Junichiro Koizumi, was one of Japan’s most popular modern prime ministers, raised hopes that those expectations could begin to change.
在日本，男性通常被期待要對雇主展現十足忠誠，此等忠誠通常得犧牲家人。身為日本近代最受歡迎首相之一小泉純一郎之子，小泉（進次郎）的這番（請育嬰假的）宣言，為此等（為公司犧牲奉獻的）期許可望有所改變帶來希望。

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《國際文宣 》 致世界的公開信 — 為何要讓台灣加入世衛 #TWcanhelp

中英文版如下

各位好，

我是Will，一位香港人，亦是最後一年的醫科生。我寫這封信的目的，是向全世界解釋為何世界衛生組織（世衛）需要重組，以及為什麼世衛需要重新考慮讓台灣成為正式成員。

2019年12月，中國湖北省的武漢市發現一種來源不明的肺炎。肺炎不久擴散至鄰近地區。香港、台灣、泰國、新加坡、南韓及日本成為亞洲最先受病毒侵襲的國家。這個來源不明的肺炎後來被稱為COVID-19，而病原體是新型冠狀病毒SARS-CoV-2。

雖然香港和台灣很早就受到病毒侵襲，但兩地在遏止疫情擴散方面非常出色。香港與台灣在2003年SARS抗疫中，分別失去了299和73條寶貴人命。我們知道我們必須從過去經驗裡汲取教訓，避免悲劇重演。應對新型冠狀病毒爆發，香港和台灣都迅速地採取有效的公共衛生措施。台灣的公營醫療系統在查找病人、隔離感染者及追踪病人曾經接觸人士方面更是全球首屈一指；這些工作對於控制傳染病擴散都是不可或缺的。

新型冠狀病毒爆發至今已經四個月，不少國家都受到迅速擴散的病毒所重創。英國、意大利、法國、印度、中國、新西蘭、澳洲及美國等多國都實施封鎖及出入境限制。病毒奪取了好幾萬人的生命，活著的人民亦飽受社交隔離及孤立的煎熬。疫情發生前的世界現已不復存在。

反觀台灣，生活仍然大致正常：人民照常上班和跟他們的朋友家人晚餐。最重要的是，當地的社區傳播病例明顯較其他國家少。這全賴台灣政府反應迅速且有效。

事實上，台灣政府亦不時接觸世衛 ，跟組織分享他們在控制病毒方面的研究成果及經驗。早於2019年12月31日，台灣曾經聯絡世衛查詢及提出新冠病毒能夠人傳人的可能性，但不受理會。直至2020年1月14日，世衛仍宣稱沒有證據顯示病毒可以透過人傳人傳播。

如果當初台灣是世衛成員國，而世衛又認真看待台灣的意見並鼓勵各國立刻為抗疫做好準備的話，各國或許可以像台灣一樣成功遏止疫情擴散，從而挽救幾萬條人命。

17年前，我們經歷了SARS。我們以幾百條人命的犧牲為代價，學到了重要一課。香港已經是世衛成員，香港大學出版的最新研究亦顯示口罩能大大降低病毒傳播風險。這項信息對全世界來說是極為重要的。台灣要是能夠在世衛發聲，他們絕對可以幫助各國走出困境。我呼籲世衛讓台灣加入組織，讓我們制止歷史悲劇的重演，向世界展示我們的團結，站於同一戰線上對抗病毒。台灣和香港能夠、亦會持續為這場抗疫之戰作出貢獻。

最後我想大家知道：這個病毒並沒有針對性。不管你是嬰孩、兒童、青少年、年輕的成年人或是長者，你都同樣承受染病的風險。絕對不要輕視這個病毒，它已經奪去夠多人命了。犧牲的人，一位都嫌太多。我懇請你們留在家中，因為只要你們這樣做，就可以避免更多的人命犧牲。保持希望，讓我們攜手一同戰勝黑暗。

請分享這段影片並加上#TWcanhelp 的標籤。

A public letter to the world: why should WHO reconsider Taiwan’s membership

Hello everyone,

My name is will. I’m from Hong Kong and I’m a final year medical student. And this is an open letter to the whole world on why we need a reformation of the world health organization (WHO) and why the WHO should reconsider the inclusion of Taiwan as its member.

In December 2019, a pneumonia of unknown source was described in Wuhan, Hubei province in China which has since then spread to nearby places with Hong Kong, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, South Korea and Japan being the first few Asian countries hit by the virus. This pneumonia of unknown source was later on known as COVID-19, caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.

Despite being hit early on by the coronavirus, Hong Kong and Taiwan have been doing an incredible job in containing the spread of the virus. Having the experience of SARS in 2003, with the tragic loss of 299 lives in Hong Kong and 73 lives in Taiwan, We know that we must learn from the history and we cannot let this happen again. In response to the coronavirus outbreak, Both Hong Kong and Taiwan promptly established effective public health measures in particular Taiwan has the best public health system in the world in terms of identifying patients, quarantining infected patients and performing contact tracing which are all crucial components in containing infectious disease.

Today, four months after the outbreak of coronavirus, many countries were devastated by the rapid spread of the virus. Countries such as the UK, Italy, France, India, China, Newzealand, Australia and the United States are in lockdown and travel restriction. Hundreds and thousands of people have died because of virus, for those who are still alive are living an incredible difficult and dreadful life with social distancing and isolation. The world we used to live in ceased to exist as of this moment.

But if you take look at Taiwan, they are still almost business as usual, people are still going out to work, to have dinner with friends and family, most importantly the number of community transmission is exceptionally low compared to all the other countries. These are all because of the rapid response and effective measures adopted by the Taiwan Government.

as a matter of fact, the Taiwan government has time and time again proactively approached the WHO to share their research and experience in containing the virus. December 31st 2019, Taiwan contacted WHO to inquire and suggest the possibility of human to human transmission of the coronavirus but was disregarded. And until January 14 2020, the WHO was still claiming that there is no evidence of human to human transmission.

Had Taiwan been a member of WHO, and had WHO taken Taiwan’s opinion more seriously and encouraged countries to promptly prepare for the coronavirus, the rest of the world maybe able to contain the virus like Taiwan and the tens of thousands of lives could have been saved.

Throughout the entire coronavirus outbreak, WHO has time and time again failed us by downplaying the severity of the pandemic, claiming that there was no evidence of human to human transmission, all along reiterated that mask provide no protection to the general public, advising countries to not impose travel restriction and most importantly the poor recommendation of PPE for healthcare workers which resulted in multiple infections to doctors and nurses in Japan who followed their advice initially.

17 years ago, we had SARS and we learned a great lesson at the expense of the tragic loss of hundreds of lives. Hong Kong is already a member of WHO and our latest research published by the University of Hong Kong showed that mask can drastically reduce the risk of viral transmission which is invaluable to the whole world. I have no doubt that Taiwan would be able to help the world if Taiwan is given a voice in the WHO. I urge the WHO to include Taiwan as its members so that . Let’s not let history repeats itself, let’s battle this war together as one world and let’s show the world solidarity. Taiwan and Hong Kong can help and they will continue to help.

And a final message to all, the coronavirus does not discriminate, no matter you are an infant, a child, an adolescent, a young adult or an elderly, we are all equally susceptible. Do not take this lightly, it has claimed enough lives already, one is too many, please stay home and it can save life. Please do not lose hope and We will get through this, together as one.

Please share this video with the hashtag #TWcanhelp

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