【本校防疫訊息〜中央流行疫情指揮中心近日陸續公布本土案例之因應措施】
NTU COVID-19 Prevention Message—Protective Measures in Response to CECC’s Recent Consecutive Updates on Confirmed Local Cases

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全校教職員工生大家好：

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近日中央流行疫情指揮中心陸續公布了本土COVID-19陽性案例及其相關活動史，5月2日所公布案例的活動地點已擴及到台北市及新北市，請大家務必提高警覺，並做好個人防疫措施，以維護校園安全。

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因疫情一直在更新，請大家密切注意中央流行疫情指揮中心的最新消息，自即日起，本校獲知新的公共場所活動史訊息後，也將立即發布動態訊息於本校的FB及官網首頁。

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具有個案活動地點接觸史的教職員工生，請主動通報所屬單位防疫聯絡人，如果沒有症狀，可以正常到校上班上課，但外出應全程配戴醫用口罩(包括進入校園、進入學校館舍、共用之辦公室内)，進行自我健康監測。如果出現發燒、上呼吸道、腹瀉、嗅味覺異常等症狀，亦請通報所屬單位防疫聯絡人，同時應配戴醫用口罩，盡速至就近社區採檢院所就醫，不得搭乘大眾運輸工具。

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若被衛生主管機關列為自主健康管理者(包括曾出入桃園華航諾富特飯店者)，請勿到校上班上課，並依中央疫情指揮中心相關規定辦理。

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為維護師生健康，學校將強化以下防疫措施：
1.立即加強各公共空間的消毒作業。
2.請各館舍透過門禁管制、安排管控人員等方式，加強落實館舍進出實名制。
3.上課及會議期間請確實配戴口罩。

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再次提醒，疫情期間請大家出門儘量配戴口罩、勤洗手、與他人保持社交距離，並自我注意是否出現發燒、 呼吸道症狀、腹瀉、嗅味覺異常等疑似症狀。如出現疑似症狀，應確實佩戴醫用口罩，儘速至附近社區採檢醫院就醫，且不得搭乘大眾交通運輸工具；就醫時，應主動告知接觸史、旅遊史、職業暴露及身邊是否出現其他人有類似症狀；返家後亦應佩戴醫用口罩，避免外出。

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國立臺灣大學防疫小組 敬上

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Dear NTU students and colleagues,

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The Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC) over the past couple of days has released a series of updates on the travel history of confirmed local COVID-19 cases. In the May 2 announcement, the areas visited by the confirmed cases have expanded to include Taipei City and New Taipei City. The University is asking all of you to stay on high alert and carry out personal pandemic-prevention measures to safeguard campus health.

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While this COVID situation is constantly being updated, please pay close attention to the latest announcements by CECC. From now on, the University will post the latest updates on its Facebook fan page and the University’s home page as soon as they are released.

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For students and colleagues who are among the contacts of the confirmed cases in the listed locations, please voluntarily notify the pandemic prevention contact person(s) at your affiliated department or office. Those who fit the above description but do not have any symptoms may still attend or teach classes as usual. Please be advised to wear a medical mask at all times when in public places (e.g. the NTU campus, premises, or shared office spaces). Please also carry out self-health monitoring until specified dates. If suspected symptoms develop such as fever, respiratory complications, diarrhea, and abnormality of smell and taste, please contact the pandemic contact person(s) at your affiliated department or office, wear a medical mask at all times, immediately seek medical attention at a nearby hospital for COVID-19 testing, and avoid taking public transportation.

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If you are among those (including people at the Novotel Taipei Taoyuan International Airport on the listed dates) requested by public health competent authorities to carry out self-health management, please refrain from entering the University for classes or work and follow the instructions stipulated by the CECC.

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The University is stepping up the following preventive measures to protect the health of students and faculty.
1. Immediately strengthen disinfection of public spaces;
2. Implement access control, appoint entry control personnel, and tighten the real-name entry system on all of university premises; and
3. Enforce mask-wearing during classes and meetings.

As the COVID-19 is still raging, please again be reminded to always wear a mask when you go out, wash hands frequently, and keep appropriate social distancing. Be on alert for suspected symptoms: fever, respiratory complications, diarrhea, and abnormality of smell and taste. If they appear, please wear a medical mask, immediately seek medical attention at a nearby hospital for COVID-19 testing, and refrain from using any public transportation. When in the hospital for treatment, please voluntarily tell the physician your contact and travel history, potential occupational exposure to the virus, as well as people around you with similar symptoms. When you return home, please also wear a medical mask and avoid going out if not necessary.

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Sincerely yours,
NTU Epidemic Prevention Team

整理得很好

【**川普做了哪些40年來其他總統沒做的事?**】中共就是這幾任包括柯林頓，小布希，歐巴馬給搞到為所欲為，不管川普是否連任，這4年能夠把中共搞到崩潰邊緣，他真的不簡單!

**這裡整理幾點，他做了那些前任總統沒做的事?**

**1. 讓反共成為美國共識:**
* 正式公開承認過去幾十年對中政策的錯誤，並將中國與中共分開，認定中共所領導的中國為「有別於民主」的獨裁國家，視其為「新威權主義」

**2. 讓反共成為民主自由國家共識:**
* 呼籲並整合西方國家，在民主自由與極權暴政之間只能選邊站，價值觀勝過經濟誘因
* 在這次疫情，願意第一個出來講真話，讓我們不用活在指鹿為馬的世界，指出就是因為中共隱匿疫情，造成全球染疫超過千萬，死亡超過50萬人，經濟停擺，損失無可計算，四億多全職工作消失不復返，生活模式改變
* 甚至，他點出了 [#宗教自由](https://www.facebook.com/…/%E5%AE%97%E6%95%99%E8%87%AA%E7%9…)，喚醒我們與中共的差別，西方民主國家不要忘記我們的價值觀，行善止惡的重要性

**3. 斷絕中共資金來源:**
* 進行貿易戰，提高關稅，迫使各國紛出走中國
* 提供優惠措施，輔導美企出走中國
* 嚴審中概股，逼迫中企會計公開透明，被迫在自由市場滅頂
* 限制經由香港的資金流動
* 對中國敏感科高科技出口禁令擴展到香港
* 下令美聯邦退休基金撤出中國，禁止用美國公務及老兵的退休基金去投資中國，使其製造武器來威脅美國人/士兵生命，過去幾任總統都是這樣做
* 美國八成假貨來自中港，不但危害智慧產權，消費者安全，更打擊市場公平性，川普對這些產品進行關稅制裁
* 進行《香港自治法》的簽署: 潛在制裁對象還首度包括國際金融機構，可導致中港銀行無法與美國銀行交易、不能使用美元結算，以打擊中港方資金鏈

**4. 斷絕中共技術來源，消滅「中國製造2025」:**
* 抵制中興、華為及與中共及解放軍有關係的中企
* 阻斷中國晶片來源，沒了心臟，所有設備根本出不了中國
* 對美國涉及千人計劃的學者、科學家開鍘，並對源頭中國駐美使館進行公開譴責
* 反制習近平「軍民融合戰略」竊取高科技，針對中國公民和學生進行簽證禁令，禁止具任何解放軍背景公民、學生與研究人員的再入境，撤銷簽證，甚至逮捕，一解放軍軍官以學術研究到美，在機場被捕，面臨最高10年刑期
* 正在進行「年度國防授權法案 (NDAA)」的簽署: 公布竊取美商業機密、威脅國家安全或經濟健康的個人或公司名單，[#向竊取技術的企業實施懲罰](https://www.facebook.com/…/%E5%90%91%E7%AB%8A%E5%8F%96%E6%8…)，包括凍結他們在美國的資產，及禁止美國公民與這些公司和個人進行交易的制裁，還包括加強美國供應鏈的措施，以及擴大與中國導彈防禦系統整合的限制

**5. 5G:**
* 正式宣布華為國安威脅，目前世界已有多國正式宣布不用華為進行5G基礎建設，這對全世界各國國家安全極為重要，菲律賓即因電網用華為設備，中共可遠端停電菲律賓48小時
* 美憂中國監視及竊盜資料，海纜准通台灣，不准通香港

**6. 印太戰略**
* 美國對中國擴張問題，不再只是內容空泛的抱怨，反而是堅強的執行意志。從新加坡李顯龍公開表示，希望華府不要逼新加坡與東協在美、中兩國選邊，很明顯就是針對美國印太戰略在發言
* 美國正在亞太地區部署前所未見的軍力，目前美軍部署在亞太地區的兵力為37.5萬人，占美軍總兵力的28%，其中包括60%的海軍艦艇、55%的陸軍部隊，以及2/3的陸戰隊兵力
* 美國前總統歐巴馬8年任期中，在南海只執行4次航行自由行動，然而川普上任迄今四年已執行22次，是歐巴馬的11倍

**7. 台灣**
* 稱蔡英文為台灣總統，國務卿蓬佩奧公開稱讚台灣在民主自由的貢獻，並支持台灣加入WHO等國際組織
* 台灣被確認是美國印太戰略核心夥伴，公開邀請參加八月南海軍演
* 2016年共和黨首度將《六項保證》納入黨綱
* 《台北法案》: 內容涵蓋台灣對外關係、美台經貿關係和台灣參與國際組織，增強美台雙邊經貿關係，並要求美政府促進台灣國際參與
* 《2018年亞洲再保證倡議法》其中第209條款「對台灣之承諾」重申支持美國與台灣在政治、經濟及安全的合作，規定「美國總統應依來自中國之威脅而定期對台軍售」
* 《台灣旅行法》: 促進兩國高層交流
* 重啟台美FTA談判
* 美方加強參與台灣國艦國造
* 軍售台灣: 18枚MK-48 AT重型魚雷，66架F-16戰機，派里級巡防艦、AAV7兩棲突擊車、人攜刺針飛彈250枚、拖式2B型飛彈769枚、標槍飛彈及迅安系統後續支援，HARM反輻射飛彈50枚、聯合距外武器（JSOW）空對地飛彈56枚、MK48魚雷46枚、標準二型（SM-2）飛彈16枚、MK54輕型魚雷168枚、4艘紀德級驅逐艦AN /SLQ-32（V）3電戰系統性能提升、SRP偵蒐雷達後續維持、MK41垂直發射系統，C-130 運輸機、F-5 戰鬥機、經國號戰鬥機，M1A2T戰車、M88A2裝甲救濟車、M1070A1 重裝備運輸車、M1000 重裝備運輸板車、FIM-92刺針便攜式防空飛彈、122把M2重機槍、216把M240通用機槍
* 進行《台灣防衛法》的簽署: 確保美軍有能力保護台灣安全，包括評估採取有限核武來嚇阻中國

**8. 香港**
* 制裁傷害香港自治的中港官員，包括: 中共政治局常委，負責港澳事務的韓正，加速中共高層內部的分裂
* 通過《香港人權與民主法》，撤銷香港特別待遇，包括禁止出口軍民兩用技術到香港
* 著手撤銷香港在引渡條例、出口管制、旅遊及獨立關稅區地位等領域所享有的特殊待遇
* 進行《香港自治法》的簽署: 對破壞香港自治的中港官員，凍結其在美資產，禁止入境美國；潛在制裁對象還首度包括國際金融機構，可導致中港銀行無法與美國銀行交易、不能使用美元結算，以打擊中港方資金鏈

**9. 新疆**
* 2019年10月，美國宣布將28個打壓新疆穆斯林的中企列入黑名單
* 2020年5月，美國宣布將中國公安部法醫研究所和8家中企列入經濟黑名單，並將33個協助中國政府監控維族，或與中國解放軍及大規模殺傷性武器有關聯的企業、機構、個人列入黑名單
* 通過《2020 年維吾爾人權政策法案》，呼籲禁止在中國境內外對這些族群的任意拘留、酷刑和騷擾，將制裁監禁超過百萬穆斯林的中國官員，制裁手段包括：凍結中國有關官員的在美財產、拒絶他們入境、拒發或取消簽證

**10. 媒體:**
* 今年2月，美國已將新華社、中國環球電視網（CGTN）、中國國際廣播電台（CRI）、《中國日報》發行公司，以及《人民日報》發行商美國海天發展公司列為外國使團
* 今年3月，美國要求削減60位中國籍記者
* 今年4月，白宮史無前例地批評美國之音為中國政府做宣傳。新任執行長在6月初通過國會核准，原本貝內特（Amanda Bennet）在內多名美國之音高管宣佈辭職
* 今年5月，美國限制中國籍記者簽證90天
* 今年5月，川普與推特等社群媒體槓上，怒斥打壓言論自由
* 今年7月，新增4家中共官媒為外國使團，包括: 中央電視台（CCTV）、中國新聞社（中新社）、《人民日報》和《環球時報》，從此需向美國國務院提供在美員工的名單及他們在美租賃或持有的房地產清單

**11. 疫情前，2019年底的美國經濟表現**
* 失業率維持在 3.5%，創 1969 年以來新低
* 執政 3 年美股飆逾 50%，高居歷屆總統第一
* 招聘人數的增加和工資的上漲推動了消費者支出，消費者支出占美國經濟的三分之二以上
* 美國是2019年G7唯一經濟增速將超過2%的國家
* 至2019年12月，美國經濟已連續第126個月持續增長，是有記錄以來最長的經濟增長期
* 美國股市的總市值攀升至創紀錄，1.5倍於其GDP
* 強勁的美國經濟在2019年繼續吸引來自世界各地的投資，使美元匯率升至歷史新高

**12. 國際組織**
* 川普大聲譴責目前「過於以中國為中心」的國際機構，包括WHO等
* 以行動退出世衛及拒絕提供資金後，世衛終於在6月30日承認中國並非第一個告知疫情，也就是中共違反世界衛生條例，並沒有在24小時內告知世衛，也代表全球都有法源依據跟中共求償
* 川普政府的國家安全小組甚至在考慮建立一個全新的國際衛生組織，以使美國能擁有更大影響
* WTO秘書長突然在今年5月辭職
* 川普表示: 聯合國是一個過時的組織。暗示應成立一個以民主自由國家，有共同價值觀為前提的組織，並開始邀請各國參加G11

What did Trump do that the former presidents did not do?

1. Making Anti-CCP a consensus in the United States:
* Formally and publicly acknowledged the mistakes of the China policy over the past few decades, separated China from CCP, and regarded China led by CCP as a dictatorship, different from democracy countries

2. Making Anti-CCP a consensus in the democratic and free nations:
* Appealed the democratic and free nations to stand together against CCP. Western countries is forced by CCP to choose side between persistence in freedom and acceptance of Beijing’s bully tactics, between value and economic incentives.
* In this epidemic, told us the fact that it’s because of the CCP’s deliberate concealment, more than 10 million people have been infected, more than 500,000 people have died, more than 400 million full-time jobs have disappeared, and our lifestyle is forced to be changed.
* Pointed out the importance of religious freedom and awakened us the differences between us and the CCP. CCP is a regime that oppresses her people’s religious freedom. Western democracies should not forget our insistence on freedom and beliefs

3. Cut off the sources of CCP funds:
* Carried out trade wars, raised tariffs, forced the companies and the investment to move out of China
* Provided preferential measures to assist US companies to move out of China
* Passed a bill that would prevent companies that refuse to open their books from listing on Wall Street. This move is aimed to "kick deceitful Chinese companies off US exchanges."
* Restrict the flow of funds through Hong Kong
* Directed federal pension fund to halt investments in Chinese stocks
* Imposed tariff sanctions on Chinese fake products
* Passed the Hong Kong Autonomy Act to require the imposition of sanctions on foreign individuals and banks that participate in China’s oppression of Hong Kong

4. Cut off the sources of high-tech technology and knowledge acquired by CCP, and eliminate the possibility of Made in China 2025:
* Boycotted ZTE, Huawei, and the Chinese companies which are related to the CCP and the PLA
* Block CCP's access to acquire the high-end chips
* Arrested the scholars and scientists involved in the Thousand Talents Program, and publicly condemned the Chinese Embassy accused to lead this program in the US
* Ordered a ban on issuing visas to the Chinese people, students and researchers with PLA background, in order to prevent Xi Jinping's "military-civilian integration strategy" from stealing US high technology
* Signed "National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)": published a list of individuals or companies that steal US trade secrets, threaten national security or economic health; Penalize the companies that steal technology, including freezing their US assets; Prohibit U.S. citizens from trading with these companies and individuals...and so on.

5. 5G:
* Barred American firms from selling tech and supplies to huawei without first obtaining a license to do so and restricted companies like TSMC, a Taiwan-based firm, from exporting computer chipsets and other key components to Huawei.
* At the same time, warned the world that Huawei products will pose a risk to their national securities. Now, the tide is turning against Huawei, many countries have given up using Huawei equipments on their 5G instructure.
* According to CNN, because of using huawei equipments, the Philippines' power grid is under the full control of the Chinese government and could be shut off in time of conflict
* Denied Google to use a direct connection between the US and Hong Kong, due to a significant risk to security

6. Indo-Pacific Strategy
* The United States is no longer just complaining about the content of China's expansion, but rather a strong will to execute. Li Xianlong from Singapore stated publicly that he hopes that Washington will not force Singapore and ASEAN to choose sides in the United States and China.
* The United States is deploying unprecedented military power in the Asia-Pacific region. Currently, the US military has 375,000 troops deployed in the Asia-Pacific region, accounting for 28% of the total US military strength, including 60% of naval ships, 55% of the army, and around 66% Marine Forces
* During the eight-year term of the former President Obama, only carried out four freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea. However, Trump has carried out 22 times in the four years so far, which is 11 times that of Obama.

7. Taiwan
* Ignoring CCP’s intimidation, the secretary of State Pompeo publically and officially called Tsai Ing-wen the President of Taiwan. Also, praised Taiwan’s contribution to democracy and freedom, and supported Taiwan’s accession to WHO and other international organizations
* Publicly announced Taiwan is the core partner of the US-Indo-Pacific Plan, and openly invited Taiwan to participate in August Joint Navy Exercise in South China Sea
* Reiterated the "Six Guarantees" for Taiwan in 2016
* Signed "Taipei Act": It aims to increase the scope of US relations with Taiwan and encourage other nations and international organizations to strengthen their official and unofficial ties with this nation
* Signed "Asian Reassurance Initiative Act 2018" : It aims to support the close economic, political, and security relationship between Taiwan and the United States, to faithfully enforce all existing United States Government commitments to Taiwan, to counter efforts to change the status quo and to support peaceful resolution acceptable to both sides of the Taiwan Strait, to conduct regular arms sales To Taiwan
* Signed "Taiwan Travel Law": It aims to encourage the travel of high level United States officials to Taiwan

8. Hong Kong
* In May 27, 2020, announced by the Secretary of State under the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act that Hong Kong no longer enjoys sufficient autonomy in order to justify special treatment by the US
* In May 28, 2020, announced that the United States would initiate the process of revoking Hong Kong’s favorable treatment under US law
* In July 1st, 2020, passed the Hong Kong Autonomy Act. It’s aimed to provide for mandatory sanctions against individuals, entities and financial institutions in response to China’s National Security Law for Hong Kong.

9. Xinjiang
* China has rounded up at least a million Uighurs in Xinjiang and imprisoned them in what it calls "re-education camps." An investigation found that most of the detainees were imprisoned due to their religious practices and culture, rather than extremist behavior.
* In October 2019, banned the import of products made by a firm in Xinjiang over its use of forced labor, also, blacklisted 28 Chinese entities for their role in the repression of Uighurs and issued visa restrictions on key Chinese officials
* In May 2020, added 33 companies to the United States’ economic blacklist of Chinese companies with ties to China’s military. The Commerce Department explained the banning of these companies, claiming that they are “complicit in human rights violations and abuses committed in China’s campaign of repression, mass arbitrary detention, forced labor and high-technology surveillance against Uighurs, ethnic Kazakhs, and other members of Muslim minority groups in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region.”
* In signed into a law an act authorizing sanctions against Chinese officials over the mass detention and surveillance of Uighur Muslims in China's western Xinjiang province. The new legislation is the most significant action by any country to punish China over its treatment of ethnic minorities.

10. Media:
* In February, require five Chinese state-run media organizations to register their personnel and property with the U.S. government, granting them a designation akin to diplomatic entities.The five organizations affected are Xinhua News Agency; China Global Television Network, previously known as CCTV; China Radio International; the parent company of China Daily newspaper; and the parent company of The People’s Daily newspaper. All five meet the definitions of "foreign missions" under the Foreign Missions Act, according to the State Department.
* In March, ordered several Chinese media organizations to dismiss 60 U.S.-based Chinese nationals
* In May, reduced the length of work visas for journalists from China employed by non-U.S. media will be to a maximum of 90 days. Chinese reporters can apply for extensions, each one also limited to 90 days
* In the end of May, after Trump's complained reminding, Twitter has flagged a tweet written in March by a Chinese government spokesman that the US military brought the novel Coronavirus to China, as the social media platform ramps up fact-checking of posts.
* In July, announced that four more Chinese media organizations will be treated as foreign diplomatic missions, including: China Central Television (CCTV), China News Service (China News Service), People’s Daily, and Global Times.

11. Before the epidemic, the US economic performance at the end of 2019
* Unemployment rate remains at 3.5%, a new low since 1969
* During Trump’s three years in power, U.S. stocks soared by more than 50%, ranking first among successive presidents
* Increased recruitment and rising wages have driven consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic output, and its health has helped the economy maintain a stretch of growth that is now in its 11th year.
* In G7 in 2019, the United States is the only country with an economic growth rate of more than 2%
* As of December 2019, the U.S. economy has expanded for a record 126 straight months, the longest time period in the country’s history according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
* The total market value of the US stock market climbed to a record, 1.5 times GDP
* In 2019, the strong American economy attracts investment from all over the world,bringing the dollar exchange rate to a record high

12. International organizations
* Loudly accused WHO of being very "China-centric" and withdrawn from the WHO by action and refusing to provide funds, the WHO finally admitted on June 30 that it was alerted by its own office in China, and not by China itself, to the first pneumonia cases in Wuhan.
* Trump is even considering to establish a new international health organization to allow the United States to have greater influence
* WTO Secretary-General suddenly resigned in May this year
* Trump even called for reform of outdated United Nations, implying that an new UN organization should based on the common value as democracy and freedom. Hence, he is starting to invite more democratic countries into G7

【我們不害怕恐懼，因為我們專門製造恐懼】

白宮華人記者張經義的這篇文章（https://tinyurl.com/y5vybuj8），正好是我們談過：

民主制度下政客為了維持政權，有很高的誘因「自己創造假問題然後再假裝解決」。我稱之為「裝忙定律」。

川普對墨西哥忽然挑起的「欲以關稅解決非法移民問題」這件事，很明顯就是一個好例子。

==========================
根據紐約時報報導：

"總之，協議簽了，川普自己發起了爭端，又「解決」自己發起的爭端，那爭議就解決了嗎？好像沒有。

第二天，《紐約時報》就爆料，協議大部分內容，其實是墨西哥方面今年3月就已經同意了，其中包括調派國民警衛隊到邊界。換句話說，川普舉起關稅大棒，得到的，竟然是幾個月前美墨之間就已經談好的協議，這可成了國際笑話。

這讓川普急了，似乎為了挽回顏面，他不停推特反駁，還親自打電話進電視台澄清，甚至主動向記者喊話掏出神秘協議，說裡面還有不能公開的內容，要等墨西哥的立法機構通過才能說。

問題是，墨西哥方面已公開否認說有秘密協議，連川普的下屬，美國國土安全部代理部長麥卡利南（Kevin McAleenan） 在出席國會聽證接受質詢時，也答不上來是否有所謂秘密協議，只能顧左右而言他，說，川普說什麼，那就是什麼，別問他。"

==========================

這也符合過去半年多來針對中美貿易戰，包含副總統彭斯的激烈談話，我都認為是雷大雨小的預測。（參見:
https://tinyurl.com/yd6qab2n)

但悲哀的也如我在「為何我一貫反對集會遊行與學運」一文中 (https://tinyurl.com/y6owsb3y) 所認為：

「民主政治下這類作秀行為都會高度簡化甚至扭曲事實、問題與解答。」

誠如上次我們談過，墨西哥非法移民問題起源於兩地實質收入相差天與地。就我所知，即便非法身分在美國當園丁或農工的amigo收入也遠高過留在家鄉。因此對經濟高度依賴出口美國的墨西哥（近70%出口對象是美國）課高關稅不但無助問題，還會反過來加劇狀況（因為關稅會加大美墨人民收入差距）。

但如果選民的經濟邏輯或感受不佳，川普的作秀很可能遂其所願。

至於川普的政績，我還是保持一樣的看法：減稅與放寬法規的確大幅改善美國經濟環境，有目共睹；但劇烈而寬緊無度、隨意且難以預測的「拿關稅解決一切問題」手段，提昇的交易費用與不確定性吃掉了前者帶來的經濟租值。而這塊成本在現今的全球價值鏈分工機制下由全體一起承擔。

這個「裝忙定律」於在野政客上亦適用。

回過頭看本次香港反逃犯條例修訂運動也是一例：某些政客與有心人士藉由販賣毫無根據的恐懼成功阻擋本該修訂的法律漏洞，沒人在乎慘死被分屍在台灣的年輕媽媽與胎兒。利害相關的受害人父母這段時間奔波努力期待兇手被繩之以法，如今情何以堪？而被誇大的法律風險事實上即便被海峽兩岸共同打擊犯罪及司法互助協議打臉（六年僅相互引渡405名嫌疑犯）。猶如台灣太陽花、反旺中等事件翻版 -- 誇大甚至無中生有風險，藉機鬧事。

與此同時，我們也會看到更多事實上利害不相關卻被利用的覺青們如小丑一般拿著懶人包與假新聞跳樑。我們更會看到如這位小姐般的覺青：一方面主張台獨反中，一方面又去中國謀利求職。https://www.facebook.com/taidushashi/posts/1962688310502009

那中國會怎麼處理香港事件？我的看法：

首先請注意，中國一步步建立上海為金融中心的企圖始終存在，例如昨日掛牌的「滬倫通」 -- 倫敦上海DR交易平台。上海目前是世界市值第七大交易所（香港為第六），倫敦是第四名。我相信中國會積極地與Top10名單尋求合作。

以及人民幣石油結算與期貨機制等。一個有趣的點是：中國強調透過人民幣石油交易平台結算的人民幣均可直接在上海黃金交易所兌換黃金，這很明顯是大幅建立國際交易者對人民幣信心而下的錨了。

雖然真正會去拉實體黃金的人應該絕無僅有，但對信心加強而言效果值得期待。

順道一提，中國可是世界第一大黃金生產國！也是世界第三大探明黃金儲量國。這也應該是中國政府有恃無恐地掛勾黃金的理由之一。

想太多？不見得。

英國金融時報6/14一篇專欄「How the US is weaponizing the wold economy」恰好談到我的想法：

美國威脅設立於布魯塞爾的私人公司SWIFT不得協助伊朗提供石油結算金融服務，SWIFT也妥協了。看似美國始終能利用自己的經濟與軍事地位在國際上為所欲為？

該專欄作者提出上一個這樣做的正是英國，透過20世紀初期英國倫敦的世界金融中心地位，在銀行、電報系統與海事保險方面制裁敵對國家德國。結果間接引發第一次世界大戰且英國也失去帝國與金融中心的力量。

誠如經濟學大師張五常曾言：英國留給香港的致命定時炸彈就是福利制度與臨走前才建立的民主制度。

恰好與多數覺青想像相反，越發民主的香港，已經逐漸玩掉自己的未來。而中國的越趨冷漠，恐怕並非退讓，而是蜘蛛看著收網的蟲子垂死掙扎。窮港政策會與窮台政策一樣被暗暗地當做主旋律彈奏，台灣有高度配合的小英政府忠實履行（一例一休、非核家園與各式民粹），香港要找個類似執行者並不難。

別忘了（最近我才發現有人竟然不知道），1997年香港主權已經回歸中國，香港正式名稱是「中華人民共和國香港行政特區」。中國國家的主權（sovereign）當然及於香港，而主權的內涵本就是「武斷的制定與執行法律（exclusive power to make and enforce law）」。別忘了依據「香港特別行政區基本法」§2，香港享有的高度自治權與獨立司法全可是「由全國人民代表大會授權」。

全國人民代表大會可授權，當然亦可收回。

與此同時，行政舉措較香港更貼近中國意志的澳門特區，與中國直接轄下的深圳表現均遠勝香港，換言之，如果說香港證明一國兩制失敗的同時，也澳門、深圳恰恰也證明一國一制才是王道。

我也說過，香港獨特的租值來自於中國的自我封閉（以及1970年代以前的歐美封閉）。改革開放後，在中國逐漸融入世界市場且要素平價的影響之下，香港租值越來越低是必然結果。因此，我認為中國只是在等一個處理香港的成本「可容忍」的點到來，而非退讓。站在這點看，我相信中國也不會太在乎香港於WTO的獨立關稅地位。

暴風雨前的寧靜，吃瓜群眾就等看戲。

文章連結：
http://yuanyu.idv.tw/…/%e6%88%91%e5%80%91%e4%b8%8d%e5%ae%b…/