🌻
Labor shortage的問題最近常出現在新聞裡, 而labor cost也讓企業頭疼. 前幾天Morgan Stanley有出一篇報告, 主要是說Amazon(AMZN)因為人力支出, 獲利會受壓, 短期內股價可能因此會一直盤整下去:

物流人力成本沉重！大摩砍亞馬遜目標價
https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4730852

而剛好前兩天的新聞有提到, 透過電商購物的消費者增加, 而其實電商會比傳統的零售業, 需要更多的人力在物流中心, 來做商品的包裝, 運送等:

"Demand for distribution workers has skyrocketed as more consumers shop online, in part because picking, packing and shipping e-commerce orders is more labor-intensive than traditional warehouse operations that distribute wholesale goods or replenish store inventory."

Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/logistics-operators-raise-pay-enlist-robots-to-meet-holiday-demand-11632657600

🌻每周做的功課與閱讀
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/09/blog-post_29.html

🌻如何逢低買進(buy the dip)?
每個人buy the dip的方法不同. 這邊簡單說一下我要buy the dip的話, 會注意哪些事情.
1. 個股所在的類股的表現
2. 均線
3. 大盤
4. 財報發表了沒
5. 股價還有沒有上行的空間(估值高低的問題)

🌻有趣的美股小知識: Why You Should Pay Attention to the Way Management Talks

Nomura(野村)的策略家發現, 當CEO在電話會議中, 用簡單易懂的方式來說明公司業務的話, 公司的股價會比使用複雜語言的CEO的公司股價還高.

Mezrich found that simple really does matter. Using the Gunning Fog index, he ranked companies in the Russell 1000 into tenths, based on their earnings conference calls. Over the past three years, the companies with the simplest language have returned 19.2% annualized, beating the equal-weighted Russell 1000’s 15.7%. Those with the most complex language returned just 13.4%. The complex language portfolio was also more volatile than the simple language portfolio.

“Since senior management delivers an earnings call, simple language may produce more confidence among investors in management’s ability to deliver on their vision,” Mezrich explains. “Hence, simpler language earnings calls can lead to subsequent stock outperformance.”

Source:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/earnings-call-language-stocks-51632526564

Picture: 小鎮的秋景. 圖片來源: Facebook. 攝影者不明.

🌻本周做的閱讀與功課:
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/08/blog-post_26.html

這周的功課有些落後. 之後可能會補東西進去. 不過重點就是這兩天的Jackson Hole 會議, 以及下周的非農.

🌻近期整理好的一些財報電話會議內容, 我會陸續放到部落格那邊. 請有興趣的讀者自行去找找. 如果還沒放上, 那就是還在進行中.

🌻Snowflake (SNOW) earnings analysis by Morgan Stanley
這家的熱度很高, 不過我沒有在follow. 下面是Morgan Stanley對於SNOW這次的財報, 所給予的評價. 供有興趣的讀者參考.

Snowflake Delivers a Solid Raise to Go Along With the Beat, as Visibility into Customer Expansion Improves. Another quarter of triple-digit product revenue growth (103% vs. 110% in 1Q22), came in 6% ahead of consensus, enabled by a set of underlying business metrics that remain best-in-class in enterprise software, including: 1) 169% net-revenue retention, which improved from 168% in Q1, 2) 60% YoY growth in total customers and 3) 107% YoY growth in customers spending in excess of $1 million in product revenue. More importantly, for the first time as a public company, management raised guidance in excess of the quarterly beat and ahead of consensus with the high end 3Q/FY22 product revenue guidance coming 5%/3% ahead of consensus. This reflects management's greater visibility into the consumption patterns of large customers – a fact underscored by CFO Mike Scarpelli reiterating expectations for 160%+ net revenue retention for the balance of the year. Furthermore, the company appears to be advancing its position beyond a cloud data warehouse, as evidenced by early traction in new areas including SnowPark (modern data pipelines), security analytics, machine learning and data exchange. The one area of controversy coming out of Q2 results was the sharp deceleration in RPO, which slowed to 122% YoY from 206% the prior quarter. However, we note that RPO growth was negatively impacted by the lapping of longer contract durations and a tough compare from the ~$100 million, 3-year deal with a large customer in the year ago period. Management noted that growth in new annualized contract value accelerated versus 2Q21. Overall, we are encouraged by Snowflake's meaningful beat and raise, and take our PT to $295. However, with shares trading 54x revenue (0.67x rev growth-adjusted), we look for a pull back to generate a better risk/reward profile.

🌻美國很有名的一位"farm-influencer", 鄉村部落客, 專門描述農村&田園的部落客: https://www.instagram.com/hcneeleman/

WSJ前幾天有篇文章, 是講現在的一個美國次文化(鄉村/農村文化farm culture). 加上疫情後, 很多人搬到鄉村或是郊區, 讓這樣的文化更盛行了起來. 相關個股是連鎖零售店Tractor Supply (TSCO)以及鞋店Boot Barn (BOOT).

https://www.wsj.com/articles/instagram-stars-make-farm-life-look-delightfulminus-the-manure-11629733123

Pictures: Tractor Supply內部照片

🌻(圖一)本季的財報表現超過預期, 令人驚豔. 不過這季也可能是earnings的高點了.

其他資訊收納在上週做的功課與閱讀(上周五已先在blog貼出來了, 不過這兩天有做了一點更新)
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/08/blog-post_11.html

🌻隨著財報結果的出爐, 投行也陸續更新了一些觀點. 若有新的資訊會收集到這裡.
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/08/blog-post_13.html

🌻之前介紹過的Olo在上周發表財報了. 很快地看了一下電話會議內容, 覺得唯一的問題就是他們還在燒$擴展, 所以gross margin提不起來. 不過這季加了很多新客戶, 所以未來提高毛利應該是沒問題的.

(其實Olo的gross margin在SaaS中, 已經是數一數二的了).

分析師的評價也不錯(4位buy), 給的價格也有上漲的空間, 不過我想就目前的大環境看來(今年的投資環境對這類的成長股不太友善), 加上即將來到的lockup expiry, 還有大盤已在高檔, 所以股價是有機會更低的. 供參.

另一家跟Olo很像的公司是加拿大的Lightspeed(LSPD). 如果對Olo有興趣, 可以把這兩家放在一起看.

(P.S. 剛上市的成長股, 上下波動都不小. 請注意.)

大環境對Olo業務的影響
o 餐飲業目前缺工的情況, 是Olo的助力之一
o 餐飲業的數位轉型, Olo也扮演一個重要的角色
o 疫情改變了消費者的點餐行為
o 旗下的Olo Dispatch產品也幫忙舒緩送餐人員短缺的問題

最近幾季看了SHOP跟PYPL的電話會議結果, 發現他們都觸及到一個topic: omnichannel. 要這樣做, 就需要有人去做整合. 餐飲業也是如此. 這也是OLO跟LSPD提供的解決方案,

🌻最近不少成長股或是IPO發表財報後, 都在跌. 如果真的對成長股有興趣, 可以趁這段時間, 好好研究他們的資料. 養精蓄銳.

另外, 美國很多好公司, 都是值得長線投資的. 好公司若短期出了事, 也都有自我修正/修復的能力.

🌻(圖二)是上週四去超市時, 冷藏寵物食品品牌FreshPet(FRPT)冰箱櫃的狀態. 有可能是缺原物料, 所以沒甚麼貨. 目前股價也跌到200sma以下了. 有興趣的可以納入觀察名單, 進一步研究.

Pictures: From FactSet; Michigan一處懷舊旅館照; Freshpet冰箱櫃的近況.

💬合作邀約: onthewaytowork2020@gmail.com
💬IG: @onthe_waytowork
歡迎大家來跟我們聊聊天https://www.instagram.com/onthe_waytowork/

道瓊工業指數在北美時間8/24公佈組成股的更換，其中離開指數的公司為Raytheon Technologies, Pfizer and Exxon Mobil，而要加入的新成員為Amgen, Honeywell International, 以及 Salesforce.com.

Salesforce也會在北美時間今天來公佈財報，盤後交易更已經上漲將近10% ，最新第二季財報數據Salesforce營收來到$5.15 Billion 較去年同期增長29%。

股價幾乎來到歷史新高的Best Buy家電零售商今日公布今年Q2五月到七月財報，成績擊敗分析師預期，但因為整體Earnings Call中對未來預期仍然是比較保守，並沒有提出Earnings Outlook，今天開盤股價呈現下跌趨勢。

如果喜歡的話

歡迎幫我們分享和訂閱🙂

紐約時報在紐約時間8月5號發佈了他們第二季的財報，宣布這一季數位版營收有史以來第一次超過了實體版本的營收，證明紐時在這八年為了轉型所做的努力算是一個肯定。

Uber這一季的總訂單成交金額為100億美金（包括所有消費者付出的費用）較去年同期下滑35%，股價在財報公布下滑了4%。本集也談到了一些在earnings con call時分析師所提出來的QA包括加州法AB-5，將合約制的員工變成正式員工等等。

維吉尼亞州州長今天宣布將推出由蘋果及谷歌共同開發的抗疫APP(Covidwise)，這個程式能自動告訴用戶可能已經感染。

如果喜歡的話
歡迎幫我們分享和訂閱🙂
IG: @onthe_waytowork

歡迎大家來跟我們聊聊天https://www.instagram.com/onthe_waytowork/
合作邀約: onthewaytowork2020@gmail.com

圖片來源 Getty Images

AT&T作為美國的股息王, 目前(7/30/2020) 股息率高達7%. 這36年的增加股息紀錄在這一次的大環境下可以保持嗎? 在影片中仔細分析了T在2020年7月的財報.

券商: Webull 微牛 (免費股票只限美國用戶)
https://act.webull.com/kol-us/share.html?inviteCode=59FZmmdIWDPo&source=main
免費平台下載:

https://www.webull.com/zh/introduce

*本文所提供的信息僅供一般參考之用，並不構成任何個人化的投資勸誘或建議

以下是資料來源: (大約45頁左右)
https://www.att.com/5g/coverage-map/
https://investors.att.com/~/media/Files/A/ATT-IR/financial-reports/quarterly-earnings/2020/q2-2020/att-2q2020-earnings.pdf
https://investors.att.com/~/media/Files/A/ATT-IR/financial-reports/quarterly-earnings/2020/q2-2020/2q20-trending-schedule.pdf
https://investors.att.com/~/media/Files/A/ATT-IR/financial-reports/quarterly-earnings/2020/q2-2020/q2-earnings801-8k.pdf
https://investors.att.com/~/media/Files/A/ATT-IR/financial-reports/2q20-highlights.pdf
https://www.patton.com/solution/Legacy-Voice-Connectivity/
https://about.att.com/story/2020/expanding_nationwide_lte_coverage.html

成為這個頻道的會員並獲得獎勵：
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8AA0Ao2ZHxNWZu0ZFdRZxw/join