🌻另一個Zoom會議(第二次貼......有補上一些內容)
繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).
主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算基礎的估值會議)
主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment　(此為小揚的粉絲頁)
參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.
時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間９點.
預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問
進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)

🌻Morgan Stanley Mid-year Investor Outlook: A tricky transition

https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/midyear-2021-global-markets-outlook

🌻在您投資生涯中, 有沒有一些觀念讓您受用很多?
下面這位投資名人的好觀念影響我很深. 他的意思是, 一般投資人, 只要能説出三個買一家公司的理由, 就很夠了. 這也迫使我, 每次在買股票時, 問自己對這家公司的了解有多少. 也會去衡量公司的優點與缺點在哪裡.

"It is vital (重要的) that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks."

全文在此:
Jim Cramer: In Times Like This, Go for the Easy Money
Look at the stocks you own. Can you tell me why you've got them? If you can't answer the following three questions, then have a look at several I like right now.

We've endured the meme stock craziness, with all of its love for heavily shorted stocks. We have watched the collapse of bitcoin to levels viewed as shocking, even if they are still more than double where they were not that long ago. We've dealt with Fed officials making it clear that they are no longer on the side of the bulls or the bears. They are on the side of job growth, but are wary of inflation. We've seen the end of the rush to get vaccines, which means that millions of people are going to get the new COVID variant, because there is no natural immunity to it. We've watched as the hopes for an infrastructure bill have collapsed. We've endured shortages of everything from chips to plastic to imported goods and labor.

And we're still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Yep, we are in one of those halcyon moments, where the masks are off -- even if they shouldn't be -- and Americans are back doing what they do best: consume, spend, go out to eat and then consume and spend some more.

There are times in the stock market where the collective mindset is revealed. This is one of those times: Things are cool, it's not a big moment, there's no real news for a bit, it's the historically strong period and we can reach some conclusions about where we are.

When things are like this, it is important to remember that buyers like to revert to tried-and-true companies that thrive no matter what. These are companies that have an edge and are better at what they do than other companies.

You know that I am a great believer in index funds, that the average person doesn't have the time or the inclination to research individual stocks. It's a difficult barrier. I think you need to make time to read the quarterly report and listen to the conference call, to Google articles and, if possible, get some research about the companies you own. It is vital that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks. I am reminded by this, because, once again, without a mask, I can be recognized and if I am not holding "Nvidia the Second," I can carry on a conversation.

I have had many in the last two weeks and when I have asked this litany of questions, I find myself at a loss as to why almost no one knew what they owned. But they thirsted for individual stocks, because they, like me, think things are better post pandemic. No, that's not a facetious comment. Many, many stocks did better with a stay-at-home economy. A huge number.

So what do I do? I revert to what others do when you are stumped about how to stay in touch with stocks, but want to do less homework. That means buying stocks that are accessible, not stocks like Unity (U) or Snowflake (SNOW) or Twilio (TWLO) or Okta (OKTA) .

I revert to normal businesses people know and I suggest they Google some articles, peruse the conference call, but, above all, like the company's products so you can buy more if it goes down.

Here's some that I have been telling people I like:

First is Ford (F) . I think the Ford lineup is amazing. The electric F-150 series will be incredible. I am eager to get a Maverick for my family, because it is a smaller pickup that will get the job done for the myriad little things I need to do with this farm I bought from that crazy bitcoin foray. I like the competitive edge of the CEO, who says he is going to bury Elon Musk when the Lightning comes out. I even think the Bronco is cool as all get out. Most important, though? I think the chip shortage is ending. My semiconductor friends are telling me the foundries are producing more feature-rich chips and that means Ford can pump out the trucks small business people love and need. Plus, the used car prices at last have plateaued, according to their most important pricing index. Halcyon times.

Second, Costco (COST) : The samples are coming back. Tell me you don't love the samples. You need things in bulk. You want low prices. You want to get all of the things that people don't think of with Costco, like insurance, hearing-aids -- hey, they are a fortune -- jewelry, things around the house. You go and you will buy far more than you first came for. My kind of store.

The kids love this American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) , which we just bought for my charitable trust, which you can follow along by joining the Action Alerts PLUS club. Jay Schottenstein, the CEO, came on "Mad Money" recently and it's clear that his Aerie model has real staying power: 26 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. No flash in the pan, that one. Number one brand in jeans for the 15 to 25 year old group. The best in the mall. How did I know this? I see the credit card bills.

I got up this morning to do my physical therapy. I have been doing it ever since I hurt my back in February. I have this really cool pair of sneakers that fit me perfectly and I love them, but I am fortunate enough to have a vacation house and I am always taking those shoes with me.

So I went on Amazon (AMZN) this morning and lo and behold I saw them for half price. I bought two pairs. Then I went over everything I have bought in the last year and got a bunch of those things. Then I bought a pair of binoculars, because mine were stolen. I paid half price.

Yep, Amazon's universal. I was talking to Alexa, while I was ordering, getting some new music on, asking questions. I saw that despite all of the Sturm und Drang of Amazon being late with things, all the delivery dates were within range. I didn't click on any ads, and I didn't need the speed of Web Services, but the whole thing reminded me about how special the darned company is. I don't care if it's ahead or behind plan for the moment. I would just buy some more when it goes down.

Finally, Apple (AAPL) . I think people who don't own Apple should look what they are holding at this very moment. Yes, right now. Or look at what's in your lap or on the table besides your fork. And then think about the bill you paid last night without knowing it. Think about what you bought in the App store yesterday. Think about what would happen if it would break or get stolen or, left in the Uber (UBER) , or heaven forbid, be dropped into the pool or in the, yes, toilet.

There, that's what you buy in halcyon times. Stocks of companies you know that if they go lower, because things get less halcyon, you are fine with it and buy more. If things go up, believe me, you will participate.

So accept the moment. Don't try for the hard money. Go for the easy kind. That's the best kind.

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer--15692051

Picture: 牡丹(peony)花開. 恨不得院子裡有一塊地是牡丹園.

《東大超人氣的人生思考課》贈書活動！1/21（四）前留言+公開分享，就會由商周抽選三位朋友贈書！以下是我的推薦序：

推薦序／謝伯讓

2004年，在美國許多路邊的大型看板上，莫名其妙的出現了一個廣告：
　　




{First 10-digit prime found in consecutive digits of e }.com
　　

大多數的一般人，都對這個廣告視而不見。唯有少數眼尖的人，才會注意到這個廣告，並且憑著好奇心和毅力去解開其中的謎題。這個謎題到底是什麼意思呢？


在揭曉答案之前，我們先來看看這個廣告對於背誦填鴨式教育的一些省思。


在台灣，每年都培養出許多「頂尖」的高中學生，這些學生，從小就縱橫考場、敗敵無數，個個都是萬中選一的考試高手，可是這些高中生在進入大學與職場之後，往往會發現，現實社會的運作方式似乎和自己過往的訓練南轅北轍。


學生們自幼就開始大量訓練的考試能力，其實是一種經由死背來快速掌握知識以及解題的「執行力」。這種能力可以幫助學生有效的學習，也可以讓學生在面對有單一制式解答的問題時，快速找到答案。


然而，學生在進入大學和現實社會之後，他們所面對到的問題，以及所需要的能力，往往都不是這種死背解題的「執行力」所能應付的，因為這些問題都沒有單一解答，也不能靠背誦和記憶來解決。


比方說，在大學的實驗室中進行專題研究時，如果想要知道如何找出清除海上油污的嶄新方法，請問背誦能力能告訴你答案嗎？又例如，在進入社會之後，如果公司老闆要你找出潛在的新客戶，請問考試訓練出來的解題能力，能夠解得出這種沒有單一制式解答的問題嗎？


我們的教育鮮少告訴學生，在進入大學和研究所從事研究、或是進入職場解決問題時，真正需要的其實是「思考力」！


那什麼是「思考力」呢？東京大學物理學教授上田正仁在《思考力》這本書中，把思考力定義細分成以下三種能力：發現問題的能力、解決問題的能力、以及永不放棄的精神。


發現問題的能力，是以一種懷疑批判的態度，去質疑他人所不曾質疑的問題。解決問題的能力，是將問題進行整理解析，提出假設然後進行驗證的能力。永不放棄的精神，則是一種不棄不餒，致死方休的思考態度。


原來，2004年在美國路邊大型看板上的廣告，就是在尋找那些少數擁有「思考力」的人！真正擁有思考力的人，可以透過其「發現問題的能力」，看到這個廣告的怪異之處，然後再透過其「解決問題的能力」，一步步經由設計程式來找出答案。最後再靠著永不放棄的精神，才能解開其中一道又一道的關卡與障礙。


在解開了所有謎題之後，他們直接收到了谷歌的面試通知。原來這個廣告是網路科技龍頭谷歌刻意放出的「釣魚」徵才資訊。


在面對一個沒頭沒尾、沒有外部誘因的資訊時（廣告上並沒有標明那是谷歌的徵才廣告），如果有人能夠主動發現問題，並且堅毅不饒地解決問題，那他們一定擁有過人的思考力，在面對未來未知的難題時，也一定有能力面對，而這也就是谷歌想要的最佳人才。


更重要的是，求才若渴的谷歌想要這種的「思考力」，並非是天生固定的能力，而是可以透過訓練來培養的！現在，就讓我們透過東京大學物理學教授上田正仁的這本《思考力》，一起提升思考力吧！


博客來：https://www.books.com.tw/products/0010880576

你知道嗎？【電源鍵為什麼長這樣？】
#本日冷知識1532
#奈米冷 #mrholiday

大家好，我是Mr Holiday。
　
隨著科技產品的進步，現代人越來越依賴各種電子產品。但是大家有想過，為什麼電子產品的電源鍵是一條直線以及一個有上開口的圓形嗎？
　
一開始設計電器的時候，工程師是用類似電燈開關的 On 與 Off 的開關，讓使用者啟動或是關閉電子產品，但是這個做法的缺點是，每個國家 On 跟 Off 的翻譯都有所不同（像中文是「開」跟「關」），這樣不是賣到不同國家，豈不是都要做出不同翻譯的版本？在全球化的浪潮下，國際間需要有共同的符號以打破這種語言的藩籬。
　
電源鍵按鍵的設計，是把 0 跟 1 結合在一起，代表的是「位元」（Binary digit，縮寫為Bit），0 代表「關」，1 代表「開」。國際電工委員會（International Electrotechnical Commission簡稱IEC）在 1973 年將這個標誌定義為「待機標誌」（Stand-by Symbol），但是電機電子工程師學會認為這個狀態太模糊了，所以直接改成電源的意思。
　
這種電源鍵通常會用在電腦類的產品，因為按下這個按鍵只會切換到省電模式，除非長按才會開機或是關機。如果是像印表機那樣非開即關的產品的話，則仍會用「I」或「O」來代表開跟關的狀態。
　
我們下次見！
　
[Mr Holiday]

資料來源：
1. Unsplash
2. Vice.com: Why the Iconic 'Power' Symbol Looks the Way It Does