【TL;DR】Daron Acemoglu 認為，美國一廂情願咁，想由上而下咁幫阿富汗建國，無考慮當地具體嘅限制。一個自由開明嘅社會，只可以有一個好狹窄嘅條件下先可能出現，亦即係佢所提出「自由的窄廊」（The Narrow Corridor）。

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/afghanistan-top-down-state-building-failed-again-by-daron-acemoglu-2021-08

＝ ＝ ＝ 廣告時間 ＝ ＝ ＝

唔好意思，都係要推介我新開嘅自家平台 Unsubject

自從開始經營自媒體，最受歡迎嘅內容，就係 TL;DR 導讀系列：每個月，我會揀幾本新舊好書、經典作品，寫導讀；等大家位可以睇完，先決定係咪投資時間去開新書。

下個星期，不如就一次過介紹晒《國家為什麼會失敗》（Why Nations Fail）同《自由的窄巷》（The Narrow Corridor）。

有興趣嘅朋友，可以先免費登記 https://www.unsubject.me ；覺得值得支持，再訂閱都未遲。

【我親愛的Zoom視訊客人們】
To My Dear Zoom Clients

我忍了真的⋯⋯真的⋯⋯很久，今天過後實在忍無可忍，一定要叮嚀所有過去和未來的客人們。

我年紀很大了，受不了太大的刺激。

拜託，你們可以Zoom好來嗎？😓😑

一、Zoom視訊的視角 = 拍護照照的視角

護照自2020年起就已成為古董，但大家這一生應該有拍過證件照吧！

對了，就是要頭髮整齊，讓我看到你的雙耳、雙眼、鼻子、嘴巴、頸項和肩膀，到胸部。

我批八字時，需要看整個面相。不要讓你一半的臉掉出鏡頭外，這樣很像鍾無艷，也不要嘴巴不見掉，這樣我很像在跟一條羅漢魚視訊。

我看面相包括看你的嘴巴、牙齒和說話時的嘴形。是的，看相就是需要那麼仔細。

如果你的螢幕太低，那就找書本或舊報紙，把螢幕墊高一點。別讓我整一個小時半只看到你的雙下巴，會把你的面相比例給看錯。

不要一直告訴我不好意思，方法是人想出來的。

•

二、光線

太暗，我看你如見鬼。
太亮，我會看不清你的膚色。
拉開窗簾，不要背向陽光。
有必要的話，就直接開燈！

•

三、勿放什麼椰樹沙灘/金門大橋的虛擬背景圖

什麼虛擬背景圖都不要放啦～

我的家美最重要，我不在乎你的家美不美，我只是來看命的。

如果你的Wi-Fi不是很強，電腦功能不是很厲害，這類的虛擬背景圖會讓你的視訊畫面卡卡的。

有時你轉個身，整個右邊不見了，或部份的頭髮少了，讓我覺得我好像在看恐怖片，嚇人啊～

•

四、環境和聲音

有些海外客人其實非常用心。為了與我視訊，特別去買有麥克風的耳機🎧，讓我能更清楚的聽到他們的聲音。😍

沒有使用耳機和麥克風的客人，往往他們的聲音會有種空氣般的回音，如果他們本身講話又小聲，我的耳機聲量開滿，我還是聽得滿辛苦的

也有香港和馬來西亞客人租過會議室、鐘點房間或單人工作室，就是為了不受家人的干擾，能安心的與我視訊。😍

最有趣的是，去年新加坡阻斷措施時，有位男客人跑到屋外的走廊坐在地上與我視訊。只是外頭風聲有點大，我好幾次都聽不清楚他的聲音。

曾有客人在咖啡廳與我視訊。咖啡廳裡的高談闊論聲和器皿的敲擊聲，頻頻從我的耳機闖進我的耳朵，哇～我的耳朵那時真的是活受罪，還要裝一副氣定神閒的樣子。

天啊，兩次過後，我寧願退錢，也不再見這樣的客人了。耳朵只有一對，我要保護好啊！

在這裡聲明：一般我們買手機時的那種有麥克風的耳機，就已能視訊。沒有戴耳機和麥克風的客人，我一概會拒絕諮詢，把費用原銀奉還。

五、孩子

曾試過諮詢的前20分鐘，一直被女客人的小孩打擾，進來哭著要媽媽主持公道。

如果你家中有六歲以下的兒童，會時不時來敲你的門，我建議你還是先別約我。你這樣會分心，無法聽好我交代的事，而我也得一直等你去安撫你的孩子，就無法在限定時間內看完你的八字，這樣對誰都不公平。

六、我只見客人一人

這個規矩，從我一出道就定下來，也清楚的寫在網站上，根本不用一而再的來試探水溫。

但這兩個星期，還是有客人硬闖關，事先安排自己的配偶/孩子坐在電腦的另一面，要他們聽我講他的八字。

我從不改我的規矩，也沒有八字或風水是我非看不可的。

讀書這麼高，連自己的命都不能自己負責，這已經不是能改到命的人了。

你一定要你的配偶陪你聽，那你需要的不是我來教你改命，是你的配偶來安你的心。

將來若還有這樣的事，我會直接中斷視訊，把錢退回去。

七、「我第一次用Zoom！」

可是從報名那天到今天的諮詢，你有兩個月的時間去摸索。

兩個月，怎麼還是錯誤百出？因為客人根本沒有事先準備和練習。

結果我就這樣等了20分鐘，還得等對方下載軟件。

Zoom不難使用，但如果是你沒有花時間去摸索，就不要撒謊，直接說，我就直接退現錢。

品德是改命的資糧，不要為了自己能脫身就隨便編一個漏洞百出的謊，還說自己是好人。這...不會臉皮太厚了嗎？

小事都不願做好，絕對不會成大器。

八、暈車

有些客人用Ipad或手機來視訊。

重點是，他一支手拿著手機，一支手拿筆寫筆記。他一邊寫，另一支手就一邊搖晃。他做在床上，移動一下，手機就彷彿大海嘯幾下🌊

我一天如果見三個這樣客人，我的視線就搖晃了5個小時。工作完畢後，頭也會痛得厲害，無法完成晚上製片的工作。

沒有自拍器三腳架，也應該有些書本或東西來頂著手機。

各位，多點善心，為我著想一下吧⋯⋯

__________________________

To My Dear Zoom Clients

I have been enduring it for a really really long time. That's it! I am gonna put a stop to this after today and send out this reminder to all my past and future clients.

I am getting on in years, and cannot stand too much stimulation.

Please.... can you guys do a proper Zoom?

Number 1: Going on screen in Zoom = Taking a photograph for your passport.

Since 2020, the passport has become something of an antique but I believe everyone has taken some kind of ID photos! Yes, the ones with your neatly combed trusses where I can see both your ears, nose, mouth, neck, shoulder all the way to your chest.

I would like to see your full face during the Bazi Consultation. Please don't allow half your face to fall off the screen and you end up looking like Zhong Wu Yan! Please also don't hide your mouth making me feel like I am talking to a Arrowana.

When I analyze your facial features, it includes your mouth, teeth and the shape of your mouth while you are talking. Yes, it is down to such level of details.

If your PC / Laptop monitor is too low, please find a book or old newspapers and stack it on top. Please don't let me only see your double chin for that 1.5 hours, as I would probably get the proportion of your face wrong.

Don't keep telling me you are apologetic. Think of a way out.

Number 2: The background lighting.

Too dark, you risk looking like a ghost.

Too bright, I cannot figure out your skin color.

Draw open the curtains, but don't face your back to the sunlight.

If necessary, just turn on the lights!

Number 3: Background images of coconut trees on sandy beaches or the Golden Gate Bridge.

There is no need to put on a virtual background. I only care about how my hone looks, I am not bothered by yours. I am only here to see your Bazi.

If your WIFI signal or your PC / Laptop performance is poor, using the virtual background can often make your Zoom video choppy. Sometimes when you turn your body, one side of your body or some part of your hair will disappear. It's really like one of those spooky movies scaring the wits out of me.

•

Number 4: Background environment and noise.

Some of my overseas clients really put in effort for our Zoom sessions. They bought a headset with a mic so that I can hear them properly and vice versa.

Those that did not use a earphone or a headset often sounded echo-ish, and if they spoke softly, I would have to turn on the volume on my side full throttle and still have a hard time trying to hear them.

There are some clients from Hong Kong and Malaysia who would rent meeting rooms, hotel rooms or private work spaces by the hour so as to reduce any disturbance from others and better focus on the Zoom session with me.

I recalled an interesting incident during the Circuit Breaker last year. A client from Singapore Zoom-ed with me along the corridor outside his house. Most of the time, I was hearing the howling of the winds rather than his voice.

Some clients sat themselves in coffee places for our session. These places are often filled with loud chatters and the clanging of cups and plates, and my ears suffered terribly. Yet, I have to continue to be seen as composed and attentive.

Goodness me, after 2 of such experiences, I decided that I rather refund these clients and never see them again. I have only 1 pair of ears and I want to protect them at all costs!

A normal earpiece that comes with the purchase of a handphone is good enough for Zoom video calls. For clients who do not have a earpiece/headset and a mic, I would end the consultation and refund the monies.

•

Number 5: Children

There was once where a session with a female client was repeatedly disrupted by her kids, running in crying for their mother to settle their quarrels. If you have children below 6 years of age, and likely to interrupt our session, I suggest you don't book a consultation with me.

You will be distracted, unable to focus on my advice and I have to wait for you to clear up the situation with your children, eating into the allowable time for me to complete the consultation. This is unfair to both you and me.

•

Number 6: I only meet one person, that is the Client.

I have set this requirement the day I stepped into this line of work, and it is clearly written in my booking form. There is no need to try your luck under any circumstances.

But in the space of 2 weeks, there were some clients who rode their luck and got their spouse / child to sit on the other side of the screen to listen in on our consultation.

I never change my stance, and there is no single client that I cannot afford to lose.

If you insist to have your spouse sit in, it is apparent that you do not need me to help transform your destiny. Rather you really need your spouse to put your heart at ease.

If such things happen the next time, I will end the session immediately and refund the fees.

•

Number 7: "My first time using Zoom"

But you have 2 full months to prepare before our actual consultation. You did not end up wasting time exploring the software and I wasted 20 mins waiting for you to download the software.

Zoom is an easy software to use but if you did not spend the time to familiarize yourself with it, please quit the lies and tell me directly. I will refund the consultation fees on the spot.

Our moral ethics serve as the foundation for our transformation. Stop weaving web of lies to get out of sticky situations, and still claim that you are a good person. Isn't this too thick-skinned?

•

Number 8: Giddy spells

Some clients use Ipad or their handphones for the Zoom session. Crucially, they hold the device with one hand, and take notes with the other. As they write, the other hand holding the phone becomes shaky. If he is doing that on his bed, his handphone would shake like a tsunami wave every time he changes his position.

If I see 3 such clients within a day, it would be 5 hours of shaking visuals for me. That would mean a splitting headache at the end of my work day, and not being able to work on my videos at night.

Even if you don't have a tripod stand, at least prop up the device with a book or something.

Please everyone, please be kind and have mercy on me......

#線上學習 #線上大學 #線上課程分享 #第一個星期 #航空業

澳航飛安主席X與教授O對正在進行的COVID-19大流行發表了看法。
教授O問：
1. 從航空業的歷史角度看待COVID-19大流行，這次與過去的其他危機有何不同？
對航空業有什麼可怕的後果？
📝X在航空業40年，經歷過911、SARS、亞洲金融風暴等等風暴，從來沒有經歷過全世界停擺-例如現在，與過去其他危機非常不同。他認為接下來的三個月將會是航空業的凋零期，澳航目前只有10%的飛機在作業而停在車庫的飛機也要繼續繳交各種費用，是航空業從未面臨過的大挑戰。

2. 對航空業的長期影響為何？
浴缸狀恢復是什麼意思？復甦為何不會是V或U形？
📝X認為年底將會有很多航空公司掰掰了、世界上的航空公司將會減少。浴缸狀恢復的意思是下降後將會在底部好一陣子然後才會慢慢恢復，不會是U或V形因為涉及到各個國家的狀況及法規等。若設置了旅遊泡泡-由疫情風險低的國家建立的旅遊泡泡、旅遊走廊或空中橋樑（travel bubble, travel corridor, air bridge)等等的旅遊協議，在安全泡泡中互相開放邊境。他提到了跌倒，跌倒前先不穩然後才倒下去，他認為我們目前是在那個不穩的狀態，還沒有跌倒⋯⋯⋯。他認為要恢復到2019時的情況至少要5年⋯。。

3. 我們可以期望航空業發生合併嗎？
X認為航空業將會枯萎而非合併，為何？
📝長話短說就是能夠支持到聖誕節的公司應該也沒有閒錢去併購其他人的公司了加上為什麼要買更多飛機來養。

4. 在澳航關閉並停工後，未來將如何重啟？他們為什麼要盡可能長時間地僱用員工？
📝因為重啟時他們將會需要各位工作人員一起努力才能重新開啟這個機器。一個螺絲都不少才能運轉順利的概念。

（以上為簡短整理教授O和澳航X的討論）

今天早上的線上研討會，大家都可以問澳航X問題，我（隔壁那位）問了：
🤔澳航於1993年私有化，考慮到當前的情況，是否將澳航恢復為公有化而不是一直地進行紓困，為更好的解決方案呢？
X情緒激動地回答了這個問題。喔吧啦吧啦吧啦啦叭叭啦啦啦。

原本以為只是以月計算的暫停鍵，沒想到變成以年計算，今天上課聽到澳航X講可能要3-5年，這是什麼概念，到底什麼時候可以回家吃飯啊🥺 希望我們都在旅遊泡泡和橋樑裡面🙏

對此有興趣的同學可以自行google這個延伸閱讀文章。
閱讀：Pandemics, tourism and global change: a rapid assessment of COVID-19, （大流行，旅遊業和全球變化：對COVID-19的快速評估）
出版Journal of Sustainable Tourism
作者 Gossling, S.;Scott, D. & Hall, C.M.2020

浴缸圖片來源：卡通世界 lsyt.net