【時事英文】

Our utopian, dystopian future with self-driving cars
無人汽車對人類未來的好與壞

As a civilization, we have not taken on board the implications of the coming revolution in self-driving cars.
作為一種文明的產物，我們還沒有考慮即將來臨的自動駕駛汽車革命可能帶來的影響。

Auto manufacturers, technology companies including Google, and legislators predict that by 2020, self-driving cars will be navigating public roads in countries such as the US, UK and Finland. Most autonomous vehicles will not be owned by individuals but by companies, then rented out to travelers by the hour.
汽車製造商、包括Google在內的技術公司以及議員們預測，到2020年，自動駕駛汽車將會在美國、英國和芬蘭等國家的公共道路上行駛。大多數自動駕駛汽車不會由個人擁有，而是由公司企業以小時計費出租給旅客使用。

Self-driving is heralded as a way of improving traffic flows and decreasing road accidents. But what about the secondary effects of autonomous cars on public transport, the property market and health?
自動駕駛被譽為可以改善交通擁堵並減少交通事故。但自動駕駛汽車對公共交通、房地產市場和健康的後續效應又是如何呢？

As with most techno-disruptions, opinion is divided into the utopian and dystopian.
與多數顛覆性技術一樣，人們看法不一，一派是烏托邦觀點，另一派是反烏托邦觀點。

Let’s look at the upsides
讓我們先看看好的一面吧。

• Removing fallible, emotional, inattentive humans from behind the steering wheel, where they really have no place, could free up ambulances and hospital accident and emergency departments. Stephen Hamilton, a lawyer in Cambridge who is working on the legality of autonomous cars, says one manufacturer is expecting 99.7 percent of road accident injuries to be eliminated. It has a team working on ways to prevent the remaining 0.3 percent of deaths and injuries on the roads.
•將容易犯錯、情緒化和心不在焉的人類從操縱方向盤一事解放出來——司機在方向盤後面真的沒多少空間——救護車和醫院急診室就沒有存在的必要了。劍橋地區正在研究自動駕駛汽車合法性的律師Stephen Hamilton表示，一家製造商預計自動駕駛可以消除99.7%的道路交通事故所致的傷亡。該公司有一個團隊研究如何防止剩餘的0.3%的交通事故傷亡。

• Car parks are an urban eyesore but their days are numbered if car ownership diminishes. Self-driving cars will rarely park. Instead, they will circulate in cities between passengers. Multi-storey car parks could be turned into homes. Domestic garages and driveways may be turned into green space or living rooms.
•停車場在城市中顯得礙眼，但如果擁有汽車的人逐漸減少，它們存在的日子將屈指可數。自動駕駛汽車很少會停車。相反，它們將會巡遊在城市裡接送乘客。多層停車場可能轉變為住宅。家裡車庫和私人車道可能轉變為綠地或客廳。

• Out-of-town pubs and restaurants could enjoy a boom. No need for a sober designated driver if the car is doing the driving.
•郊區的酒吧和飯館可能蓬勃發展。如果汽車是自動駕駛，就不需要請頭腦清醒的指定駕駛了。

• City and suburban streets will be reclaimed. Over half of their width is taken up with cars parked for days on end. Children could use the liberated space to play and their parents to socialize.
•市區和郊區的街道將可以騰出空間。現在這些街道逾一半的地方被連續停放好幾天的汽車佔據。孩子們可以在空出來的地方玩耍，他們的父母可以利用這些地方跟人打交道。

• Ugly road signs and lines will become a thing of the past. Autonomous cars do not need them. The cityscape and rural views will be improved.
•醜陋的道路標識和標誌線將成為過去式。自動駕駛汽車不需要它們。城市景觀和鄉村風光將會有所改善。

• We will have more spare time — an extra 50 minutes a day typically, according to a McKinsey study.
•我們將會有更多的閒置時間——麥肯錫的研究顯示，通常每天會多出50分鐘時間。

• Autonomous car operators will be imaginative. Cars could come equipped as a gym, cinema or bedroom.
•自動駕駛汽車運營商將會非常有想像力。汽車可以被佈置為健身房、電影院或者臥室。

• The cost of personal transport will plummet, according to Barclays, from between $1 and $1.60 a mile to as little as 8 cents a mile.
•巴克萊表示，個人交通成本將會大幅下降，從每英哩1美元至1.60美元降至微不足道的每英哩8美分。

• Transport could even be free. When you book a ride in a self-driving taxi and accept ads played at you, the cost could reduce to zero.
•交通甚至是免費的。當你預定一輛自動駕駛計程車並接受對你投放的廣告的話，費用可能降為零。

• The tipping point, says Mr. Hamilton, will come when there is a 70 percent take-up of self-driving vehicles.
•漢密爾頓表示，當自動駕駛汽車的比例達到70%的時候，轉折點就會來臨。

But there will be downsides
但也會有不利的一面。

• Hacking will be a menace. Individuals will try to dismantle their cars’ software, causing accidents. Organized hackers and terrorists will seek to cause large accidents.
•駭客將是威脅。個別人將會試圖卸除汽車的軟體，進而導致交通事故。有組織的駭客和恐怖分子將會尋求製造重大交通意外。

• Chaos will ensue when autonomous car operators fail to charge their cars sufficiently and run out of power on busy roads. But self-driving cars will be better at negotiating their way around stalled vehicles.
•當自動駕駛汽車運營商未能給車子充足電、從而在交通繁忙的道路上耗盡電量的時候，就會發生混亂，但自動駕駛汽車將能更好地繞開拋錨的汽車。

• Thrill-seekers could play an updated game of chicken, in which they run in front of a self-driving car to see if it uses its superhuman reaction time to swerve into a lamp post.
•尋求刺激的人可能玩升級版的誰是膽小鬼遊戲，他們會故意跑在自動駕駛汽車前面，以看看它是否利用其超人的反應時間轉向路燈撞去。

• If the cost of going a block or two by car is negligible — or zero — fitness and health could decline.
• 如果汽車走一兩個街區的成本很低（或者為零），人們的身材和健康狀況就可能變差。

• With travelers free to drink and be driven, alcohol and drug consumption could soar.
• 旅客們可以隨便喝酒和坐車，飲酒和吸毒狀況可能飆升。

• Local councils and national government, stung by diminishing parking and traffic fine revenues, will try to make transport expensive again with taxes per mile travelled.
• 地方議會和國家政府會遭受停車費和交通罰款收入下降的衝擊，它們將會努力通過徵收每英里旅行稅，再次讓交通變得昂貴。

• The media will go nuts for the first 20 or so years about every accident, however minor, involving a self-driving car, even if they currently ignore the global 1.25 million deaths and 20-50 million injuries on the roads.
•媒體將會發瘋似的報導頭20年左右與自動駕駛汽車有關的每一起事故，無論事故多小，雖然當前他們不太注意全球每年有125萬人死于道路交通事故，受傷人數也有2000萬至5000萬人。

The grey areas
灰色地帶

• Trains could be doomed. What is the point when cars and lorries can combine to make what is effectively a train on virtual tracks, with each driver enjoying their own space?
•火車可能式微。當小汽車和卡車合起來可以做火車做的事情，而且每個司機都有自己的空間的時候，火車還有什麼意義呢？

• While city car parks will be more productively re-purposed, unattractive out-of-town brownfield sites could become vast recharging parks where autonomous cars go for power and servicing through the night.
•儘管城市停車場將會被重新設計得更有效率，但毫無吸引力的城外棕色地帶（brownfield site，因受到污染而被廢棄或閒置的前工業和商業用地）可能成為龐大的充電場，自動駕駛汽車可以晚上來這裡充電和檢修。

• There will be a boom in out-of-town racetracks for people to drive fast and take risks in manually driven cars.
•對喜歡開快車和手動駕駛汽車的人來說，郊區賽車路線將會興盛。

• Being late to a meeting “because of traffic” will be over as an excuse.
•“塞車”將不再是開會遲到的藉口。

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