🌻另一個Zoom會議(第二次貼......有補上一些內容)
繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).
主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算基礎的估值會議)
主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment　(此為小揚的粉絲頁)
參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.
時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間９點.
預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問
進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)

🌻Morgan Stanley Mid-year Investor Outlook: A tricky transition

https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/midyear-2021-global-markets-outlook

🌻在您投資生涯中, 有沒有一些觀念讓您受用很多?
下面這位投資名人的好觀念影響我很深. 他的意思是, 一般投資人, 只要能説出三個買一家公司的理由, 就很夠了. 這也迫使我, 每次在買股票時, 問自己對這家公司的了解有多少. 也會去衡量公司的優點與缺點在哪裡.

"It is vital (重要的) that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks."

全文在此:
Jim Cramer: In Times Like This, Go for the Easy Money
Look at the stocks you own. Can you tell me why you've got them? If you can't answer the following three questions, then have a look at several I like right now.

We've endured the meme stock craziness, with all of its love for heavily shorted stocks. We have watched the collapse of bitcoin to levels viewed as shocking, even if they are still more than double where they were not that long ago. We've dealt with Fed officials making it clear that they are no longer on the side of the bulls or the bears. They are on the side of job growth, but are wary of inflation. We've seen the end of the rush to get vaccines, which means that millions of people are going to get the new COVID variant, because there is no natural immunity to it. We've watched as the hopes for an infrastructure bill have collapsed. We've endured shortages of everything from chips to plastic to imported goods and labor.

And we're still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Yep, we are in one of those halcyon moments, where the masks are off -- even if they shouldn't be -- and Americans are back doing what they do best: consume, spend, go out to eat and then consume and spend some more.

There are times in the stock market where the collective mindset is revealed. This is one of those times: Things are cool, it's not a big moment, there's no real news for a bit, it's the historically strong period and we can reach some conclusions about where we are.

When things are like this, it is important to remember that buyers like to revert to tried-and-true companies that thrive no matter what. These are companies that have an edge and are better at what they do than other companies.

You know that I am a great believer in index funds, that the average person doesn't have the time or the inclination to research individual stocks. It's a difficult barrier. I think you need to make time to read the quarterly report and listen to the conference call, to Google articles and, if possible, get some research about the companies you own. It is vital that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks. I am reminded by this, because, once again, without a mask, I can be recognized and if I am not holding "Nvidia the Second," I can carry on a conversation.

I have had many in the last two weeks and when I have asked this litany of questions, I find myself at a loss as to why almost no one knew what they owned. But they thirsted for individual stocks, because they, like me, think things are better post pandemic. No, that's not a facetious comment. Many, many stocks did better with a stay-at-home economy. A huge number.

So what do I do? I revert to what others do when you are stumped about how to stay in touch with stocks, but want to do less homework. That means buying stocks that are accessible, not stocks like Unity (U) or Snowflake (SNOW) or Twilio (TWLO) or Okta (OKTA) .

I revert to normal businesses people know and I suggest they Google some articles, peruse the conference call, but, above all, like the company's products so you can buy more if it goes down.

Here's some that I have been telling people I like:

First is Ford (F) . I think the Ford lineup is amazing. The electric F-150 series will be incredible. I am eager to get a Maverick for my family, because it is a smaller pickup that will get the job done for the myriad little things I need to do with this farm I bought from that crazy bitcoin foray. I like the competitive edge of the CEO, who says he is going to bury Elon Musk when the Lightning comes out. I even think the Bronco is cool as all get out. Most important, though? I think the chip shortage is ending. My semiconductor friends are telling me the foundries are producing more feature-rich chips and that means Ford can pump out the trucks small business people love and need. Plus, the used car prices at last have plateaued, according to their most important pricing index. Halcyon times.

Second, Costco (COST) : The samples are coming back. Tell me you don't love the samples. You need things in bulk. You want low prices. You want to get all of the things that people don't think of with Costco, like insurance, hearing-aids -- hey, they are a fortune -- jewelry, things around the house. You go and you will buy far more than you first came for. My kind of store.

The kids love this American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) , which we just bought for my charitable trust, which you can follow along by joining the Action Alerts PLUS club. Jay Schottenstein, the CEO, came on "Mad Money" recently and it's clear that his Aerie model has real staying power: 26 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. No flash in the pan, that one. Number one brand in jeans for the 15 to 25 year old group. The best in the mall. How did I know this? I see the credit card bills.

I got up this morning to do my physical therapy. I have been doing it ever since I hurt my back in February. I have this really cool pair of sneakers that fit me perfectly and I love them, but I am fortunate enough to have a vacation house and I am always taking those shoes with me.

So I went on Amazon (AMZN) this morning and lo and behold I saw them for half price. I bought two pairs. Then I went over everything I have bought in the last year and got a bunch of those things. Then I bought a pair of binoculars, because mine were stolen. I paid half price.

Yep, Amazon's universal. I was talking to Alexa, while I was ordering, getting some new music on, asking questions. I saw that despite all of the Sturm und Drang of Amazon being late with things, all the delivery dates were within range. I didn't click on any ads, and I didn't need the speed of Web Services, but the whole thing reminded me about how special the darned company is. I don't care if it's ahead or behind plan for the moment. I would just buy some more when it goes down.

Finally, Apple (AAPL) . I think people who don't own Apple should look what they are holding at this very moment. Yes, right now. Or look at what's in your lap or on the table besides your fork. And then think about the bill you paid last night without knowing it. Think about what you bought in the App store yesterday. Think about what would happen if it would break or get stolen or, left in the Uber (UBER) , or heaven forbid, be dropped into the pool or in the, yes, toilet.

There, that's what you buy in halcyon times. Stocks of companies you know that if they go lower, because things get less halcyon, you are fine with it and buy more. If things go up, believe me, you will participate.

So accept the moment. Don't try for the hard money. Go for the easy kind. That's the best kind.

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer--15692051

Picture: 牡丹(peony)花開. 恨不得院子裡有一塊地是牡丹園.

大家一定都有看過「孟姜女哭到萬里長城」的故事

小蛋糕主人不知怎麼的真的很愛這個故事，越離奇的我越愛😍😍😍

而且我還記得幾年前去中國八達嶺長城時我還認真想過這麼厚的城牆怎麼可能被哭倒啊，是真的有認真思考😳😳😳

但今天我們要來看看「哭」😢😭這個字眼到底在英文當中有幾個說法

如果只有知道cry，齁齁～是不是很弱😝😝

1⃣️cry是最基礎流眼淚的行為，包含切洋蔥掉淚也可以說cry。😢😢😢

2⃣️weep的意思包括流很多眼淚也發出一些很可憐(多半是煩人😤😤😤？！）的聲音, 但不會超級大聲或是發神經，大概就是我小姪女👧🏻在「歡」或是小狗🐶肚子餓的時候那種hin hin hin那種的聲音。

3⃣️sob是指用吃奶力氣在哭, 哭到身體開始抖中猴🐒,會一直哭, 一直抖, 也無法清楚說話會很像中邪一樣說一些很像咒語的話，例如“我....哇哇哇...我很.....嗚嗚嗚嗚” 換言之也是讓人很想貓下去的那種醜樣子。😫😫😫😫

4⃣️wail就是呼天搶地地嚎啕大哭😭😭😭😭😭😭✖️1⃣️0⃣️0⃣️0⃣️，唉唉叫，叫天叫地叫媽媽叫爸爸叫小狗叫大貓，什麼都叫，讓旁人完全不能忍受那種哭聲。

5⃣️trickle就是那種很美的哭，大概就像是瓊瑤女主角那種看著心愛的男人出門去買豆花分開5分鐘就很捨不得的那種哭。說白一點，就是很多瞎妹在臉書上上傳臉上掛著眼藥水留下來的淚痕👀然後還因為眼藥水太刺激所以眼睛紅紅用來騙癡漢按讚然後留言說「怎麼了？」「秀秀」「我陪你」「我買給妳LV（？！）」的那種死樣子。

例如我們可以說：
Robert Gao dumped Monica Chen last night so when Monica gazed at his receding figure in the moonlight, she trickled and never forgot to take a selfie and posted it to Facebook. After a few minutes, she started to weep since she realized without Robert, she would never be able to afford her LV and Chanel. She Lined him but he never replied so she sobbed disgustingly. After 3 days, she discovered that she is pregnant and Robert is already married to a sexy model, she wailed wailed and wailed and the Great Wall of China collapsed over her bitterly gross wail. The END. （蘿蔔糕昨晚一氣之下甩了模擬卡稱！當卡稱看著菜頭糕在月光下漸行漸遠的背影，她gay掰地淚流兩行但沒有忘記要立馬自拍上傳臉書。幾分鐘後，她開始淚流滿面然後hin hin hin因為她忽然想到沒有蘿蔔糕，就沒有她的路易威登和香奈兒。她開始LINE蘿蔔糕，但卻都不讀不回，於是她胎哥地哭了起來。三天後，她發現早已有了身孕而菜頭糕也早已娶妻，她就中猴地哭呀哭呀哭呀，萬里長城就這麼坍了，就因為她的中邪哭聲....）

以後哭不要再只有cry了喔，不飛炫！（甩髮3000000次）