有準備升級 iPhone 13 的 iPhone 7 或 8 用戶嗎？

🌻Docusign(DOCU), Crowdstrike(CRWD)財報結果
上週這兩家公司發表財報了.

這兩天看了一下他們的財報結果. Again, 兩家的表現都很好, 但發現分析師給DOCU的調價(往上)幅度比較多, 就好奇研究了一下SaaS公司是怎麼被估值的. 有興趣的話可以看看(從中學習到很多. 非常推薦一讀):
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/09/blog-post.html

(By the way, 分析師對CRWD的價格調幅沒那麼大, 主因是成長趨緩了. 而DOCU的free cash flow佔營收比, 以及顧客黏著力在這季創了新高, 是讓分析師按讚的幾個原因).

關於CRWD: "The Street is already modeling revenue growth deceleration in 2022 to 36%, down from 60% expected in 2021, which on its own might prove a hurdle for a stock already trading at a high multiple," said Bank of America analyst Tal Liani in a report.

分析師對於DOCU的評價:
• 11位buy; 給的價格分別是: $310, $320 (x2), $330 (x2), $340 (x2), $345, $350, $350, $389
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst continues to view them as a best in class way to play digital transformation trends with strong growth, cash flow and profitability, and a strong competitive position. Power said DocuSign remains one of his top long-term compounding growth ideas.
o Citi: While slightly shy of the double-digit billings beat in recent quarters, DocuSign still delivered a solid 8% beat to Q2 billings, which grew 47% year-over-year, Radke tells investors in a research note.
o Evercore ISI: he calls "another strong quarter." While some may have wanted to see more aggressive Q3 billings guidance, he believes estimates "continue to leave room for upside," Materne said.
o JMP Securities: While revenue growth decelerated to 50% from 58% in Q1, the company is the clear leader in electronic signature and the broader system of agreement having crossed over 1M customers with a $2B run rate this quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that he sees lots of room for growth as DocuSign targets a $50B total addressable market.
o Needham: The analyst commented, "Docusign reported another strong quarter in 2QF22 with typical DOCU upside to revenue and profitability. Sales metrics and growth decelerated Q/Q, as we expected against a massive pandemic quarter, but at a much slower rate than we believe much of the Street was anticipating. 65k net new customers was lower than the 70k - 90 range of CY20 but was still more than 2x greater than any pre-pandemic quarter, highlighting a strong end-market driving 47% billings growth against a strong comp. Commentary on incremental Agreement Cloud demand was positive, suggesting an additional growth tailwind combined with solid international can further aid 2HF22. Although DOCU shares could be lower near-term due to weak 2H OpMg guidance, we think this guidance is conservative, as the recent OM was greater than the pre-pandemic level even with tough comps."
o RBC Capital: The quarter highlighted the sustainability of the company's tailwinds post-pandemic as most of its underlying metrics such as billings and net revenue retention were solid, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that the traction with CLM and Notary was also "impressive".

分析師對於CRWD的評價:
• 12位buy; 給的價格分別是: $300, $310 (x2), $313, $315 (x2) , $305, $320, $325, $330 (x2), $340
• 1位給hold: $280 (from $220 by J.P. Morgan(same))
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst believes the company has significant room for growth with core modules, opportunities with Humio and in cloud workload security, among others, should help drive a continuation of strong growth over a long time horizon.
o BTIG: The company's "strong" Q2 results "cleared every hurdle", even though the buy-side benchmarks may have been slightly higher, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Powell adds that Crowdstrike is clearly gaining share in its core endpoint security target market at a rapid pace and gaining traction with new products across multiple categories.
o Canaccord: The analyst said the stock is down from its recent highs, and he thinks the re-rating creates a more favorable entry point for longer-oriented investors for a foundational security name. He views Crowdstrike as a long-term secular winner in security due to its native cloud platform advantage versus closely held peers in endpoint security combined with platform expansion into tangential segments to capture greater share of security budgets.
o Goldman Sachs: CrowdStrike last night delivered "another beat and raise quarter as the company benefited from another quarter of elevated demand," Essex said. But it traded lower following net new annual recurring revenue growth guidance that was slightly less than investors had hoped for. Essex, nonetheless, said the quarter demonstrated CrowdStrike's "ability to continue to go down market efficiently."
o JMP Securities: The analyst notes the company's Q2 annualized recurring revenue of $1.34B topping his estimate of $1.30B, with "sustained" 70% ARR and revenue growth along with margin upside seen as key highlights for the quarter. Suppiger adds that the metrics reflect Crowdstrike's "strong execution and robust demand environment".
o Mizuho: "very good" fiscal Q2 results. The annual recurring revenue growth of 70% year-over-year "was strong and still nicely surpassed" the Street's 65%-66% estimate, Moskowitz tells investors in a research note. He believes "strong execution can propel" Crowdstrike's stock higher.
o Piper Sandler: The company's metrics "outperformed across the board" in Q2 with 70% annual recurring revenue and revenue growth and record net new customer adds in the quarter, Owens tells investors in a research note.
o RBC Capital: Hedberg adds that CrowdStrike's record pipeline entering Q3 should continue to fuel the company's "land-and-expand" momentum.
o Stifel: Q2 results that he said "exceeded consensus estimates across all major financial metrics." He continues to believe that Crowdstrike's growth opportunity "remains in the early days" despite the company's scale given continued share capture within its core endpoint security market and incremental module adoption on the Falcon Platform, Reback tells investors.
o UBS: the company reported "pretty good" Q2 results against high expectations.

🌻趨勢: 跨境電商 Cross-border commerce
Morgan Stanley:
From our perspective, we think many are underestimating what the cross-border eCommerce demand could ultimately be, once key friction points like FX rates, tax and duties, shipping, language, etc are smoothed—all issues that Global-E directly addresses.

Cross-border ecommerce brings new, high-yield volume: We think elevated levels of cross-border ecommerce (ex-travel) is a structural shift thathas yet to be fully contemplated in MA (and V)'s long-term forecasts. MA's cross-border CNP ex-travel volume was 69% above 2019's level in 2Q and 63% higher in 1Q. Strength reflects both broader ecommerce adoption plus globalization of commerce, as marketplaces and services that reduce cross-border friction (such as those from GLBE) make international online ordering more readily adopted. Early data at V suggests greater cross-border ecommerce spend is persisting even in areas with pre-pandemic levels of international travel. Cross-border transactions also come at a higher yield, making us more optimistic that the trend can bring incremental long-term growth to the networks.

產業的潮流是有連貫性的. 疫情讓電商更發達後, 接下來應該就是加速電商跨境了. 跨境的話, 有很多問題需要解決(稅率, 語言, etc.) 這就需要有公司來做整合的動作. 這種跨境, 也可以想像是omnichannel的一種呈現.

Harley Finkelstein (President of Shopify): "I mean I think commerce in 2021 is cross-border."

🌻SPAC熱潮退卻，初創市值蒸發750億美元
"SPAC熱潮已經退卻。分析顯示，在2月中旬以前完成合併的137家SPAC的總市值已經蒸發25%，市值回落幅度上個月一度超過1,000億美元。"

"像貝萊德(BlackRock Inc., BLK)和富達投資(Fidelity Investments Inc.)這類企業管理的基金，以及許多對沖基金、養老金管理公司和其他一些投資者，都在SPAC的回落中遭受了衝擊，他們在去年年底開始的熱潮中競相投資SPAC。其中許多基金由於在價格還很低的時候就早早入場，所以現在仍坐擁可觀收益。事實上，SPAC市值仍有約2,500億美元，高於一年前的約1,000億美元，反映出這期間股價上漲和新公司上市的影響。

但即便如此，今年年初令人炫目的回報還是讓許多後來者做了接盤俠，扎堆投資所謂穩賺不賠的領域，其永恆的風險可見一斑。在過去的幾個月裡，一些投資者眼睜睜看著帳面財富縮水。"

"股價下跌會在SPAC領域形成惡性循環，因為投資者有權在併購交易前從空白支票公司撤資。一旦SPAC跌破發行價，投資者就更有可能這樣做，而許多SPAC的股價現在正處於這樣的水平。目前，在尚未宣布併購交易的空白支票公司中，超過95%的公司股價低於發行價。

投資者的大規模撤資會讓已經上市的空白支票公司手上的現金大幅減少，讓其更難實現業務目標，並可能加劇股價跌勢。"

https://on.wsj.com/3n6JznC

🌻BNPL (buy now pay later)
But most BNPL providers including Affirm, Klarna and Afterpay have been losing money despite breakneck revenue growth as they invest heavily in marketing to win share. Sweden-based Klarna’s credit losses more than doubled in the second quarter. Affirm has projected adjusted operating losses of $50m-$55m for the fiscal year that ended June 30.

The path to profitability for many of these companies was to achieve massive scale, analysts said.

https://www.ft.com/content/ca201a37-a16d-4223-b123-04d38350a972

Pictures: 一葉知秋; from EarningsWhispers

愈快樂愈墮落，我的Guilty Pleasure……
唔知點解地，好鍾意呢首歌，籠籠籠～～

Atelier Ryza 2: Lost Legends & the Secret Fairy Demolition Bomb
Abelheim Manor
Ashra-am Baird

After the previous scenes, head back to Ryza's atelier to have the scenes with Tao continue. We'll need to go find Patty and ask her about rent.

Leave the atelier and go to Weisheit Academy District. Open up your map and in the northwestern side of the district. Head on over there to trigger a scene with Patty where we'll go inside her "little" house and meet with her father, Volker Abelheim.

提供 ブルワリーガーデン修善寺 - Baird Beer
https://bairdbeer.com/ja/brewery-gardens-2/

僕が普段着ているサイクルウェア【Cafe du Cycliste】はこちら！
https://bit.ly/CafeduCycliste

メンバーシップ始めました！
メンバー限定ライブを行ったり、ライブ配信で専用のスタンプが使えます～興味がある人はどうぞ～
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCCeVBBMeBBnDhuHrPGpqkyA/join

けんたさんオリジナルLINEスタンプはこちら
https://store.line.me/stickershop/product/12496111

けんたさんおすすめ自転車グッズ（随時更新しております！）
http://amzn.to/2bA2YZL
※上記製品リンクURLはAmazonアソシエイトのリンクを使用しています。

お仕事のご依頼はこちらから
reimond09b052@gmail.com

ひっそりとやっていた
『けんたさんゲーム実況チャンネル』twitchで定期的に生配信してます！
https://www.twitch.tv/iamkentasan

『けんたさんのtwitter』最新の情報を発信してます！
https://twitter.com/iamkentasan

『けんたさんのInstagram』動画では見せてないライドの写真など載せてます！
https://www.instagram.com/iamkentasan/

#ロードバイク #キャンプ #ビール

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/dw_kid12/

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/deepwebkid/?modal=admin_todo_tour
訂閱: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8vabPSRIBpwSJEMAPCnzVQ?sub_confirmation=1

鬼故事: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4rmkFI1ik0&list=PLglqLngY6gv5BCwaoP-q6DOwUmw1lIusF

我最高觀看次數的影片 (我為何不再拍暗網? 只說一次): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbihKaqEEQw&t=127s

曼德拉效應: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMutzRIE_uE&list=PLglqLngY6gv5BCwaoP-q6DOwUmw1lIusF&index=17&t=5s

我的100K成長故事: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kdhtp6A6YJE

破解Kate yup事件是假的! 不是綁架! 不要被騙! (Facebook上的證據): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2NJVt56ORWo&t=2s

日本最殘酷的直播節目: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7E81OKVX7wc

網上最可怕的一個字 (Ft. HenHen TV): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLedkSHc7Os&t=145s

Billie Eilish賣掉了自己的靈魂嗎?
來自美國民間故事的口suet, 魔鬼纏繞音樂界的傳說一直都有. 我覺得英文的用詞 ‘Selling your soul’ miu suet得最tip chit.
當一個人走到絕望的交叉路口, 魔鬼就會用那個人最大的慾望誘惑他. 代價就是在生他可以擁有世界. 但死後, 靈魂就會gwuy魔鬼擁有受地獄無盡折mo.

歷史上最出名的 ‘魔鬼交易’ 有17世紀紅peen歐洲意大利, 天才小提琴家Paganini.
有指他長相奇怪: 面色蒼白, 眼神尖銳. 拉小提琴的速度就算令到琴上的弦斷了, 他仍然可以繼續彈到.
他lum死前亦趕走幫他做last rites (臨終祈禱) 的牧師, 好像凖備魔鬼來接走他的靈魂一樣.

他走了差不多300年後, 流行音樂涉及魔鬼交易的新聞有增無減. 其實是證明人類對於成功人妒才和多疑的現象.

或者沒有那麼嚴重, 可能只是一種不理解而已. 所以今天就用一個科學方法
‘The scientific method’ 5個步驟研究一下現今樂tan的魔鬼交易事件. 我們主要看: 音樂, mv, 唱片公司.

大家好又是我暗網仔
我們測試對象就是她

(Show Billie eilish) 大家應該有聽過這首歌吧!

最年輕, 18suey, 羸得Grammy 4個獎項的歌手.
billie的MV亦常常加入邪惡影像. 估計是自jauw或諷刺以上提到的事.


Make an observation (賣孩子做音樂)

Billie eilish 現時擁有超過62 million IG followers. 她自2015年暴漲 155倍follower數目的確hon有.其實Billie Eilish的爸爸, 媽媽和哥哥都是做娛樂圈. 大家可能以為Billie eilish是2018,19年突然從那裡爆出來.

但早於2015年她的單曲ocean eyes已經幫她吸立了Instagram有400K個follower的fans人數.
訪問中提到做音樂gam juy多年的哥哥Finneas會dok sun deng jo幫Billie做歌. 整將專輯也是在他們小時候的家錄音和完成的.

美國媒體自2018年爆出Nickelodeon兒童台製作人Dan schieder跟之前拍攝他劇集的未成年少女有ouy mui甚至yuet界的關係後一些 ‘星媽’ 賣仔女到娛樂圈名成利就的故事一一再比fan check.
極大部分星媽都是年輕的時候做不到明星, 然後自己兒女就從小訓練去完成夢想. Justin Bieber 媽媽是這些. Michael jackson爸爸曾是樂隊的吉他手.
Billie媽媽Maggie Baird是現職女演員, 更從小home-school Billie, 教她寫歌甚至2016幫她剪接MV. 一直為她po路. 很多網友覺得他們家庭一定是賣了Billie給Hollywood, sold her soul.
但可能只是她媽媽有的connection幫助到她.

ask a question
Music video weird symbolism (邪惡影像-撤旦)

第一條令我有深刻印象的Billie eilish MV是when the party’s over. 2018年近萬聖節推出的影片給我一種Poppy的感覺. 如果大家不知道Poppy是誰, 她曾有一段時間jun hum互聯網.
Youtube上post奇怪, 甚至被指有大量光明會象徵yun yue影片的.

但Billie的歌曲all good girls go to hell, 好女生都落地獄MV受到最多, 尤其宗教人士指罵. 故事開頭Billie do落天使型像dit lok凡間. 之後她走的LA街道開始juek火. 明顯是yun yu反基督教, 撒旦被趕出天堂然後dit lok凡間的故事.

Billie自細就在一所Presbyterian教堂表演. Presbyterian雖然也是基督徒的一種, 但某些教do比較不同: 列yu會allow same sex marriage. 但又不算反基督, 可能只有一些理念不同.

之後被ching ching MV的信sik是想講Global warming. 甚至頒獎典禮上表演也同樣出現火的場面, ‘火’ 背後象徵是global warming?
我相信kuw思這個MV時, do lok天使的故事一定是有參考的東西. 但有機會各個MV 只是想market一個壞女孩的型像. But ging她最出名的歌曲叫 bad guy. 所以可以接受.


form a hypothesis (假設光明會)

Billie首張專輯 ‘when we all fall asleep, where do we go?’ 是由Interscope唱片公司發行. Interscope其他大artist有: lady gaga, Madonna, Eminem.
Interscope這間公司之前也有其下Rapper Tory Lanez出來説揭發公司大廈裡發生的各種事. 其實網上已有多人講多個大唱片公司是由光明會控制.
而跟一本由Fritz springmeirer寫 ‘the Illuminati formula..” 的書, 一個明星能達到某一個chung chee的名氣有所犠生的. 也會做一些奇怪行, 跟蜘蛛, 眼流出黑色東西一一都是有關的.

所以假設Billie真的是有做過這些yee sik加入光明會.
那MV Bury a friend?面是否能給我們最直接的答案呢?

make a prediction
Bury a friend MV劇照是專輯的封面. 白色眼睛有指是Billie 的kuey hok已失去靈魂.

MV中Billie sik yeen的角色是男主角床下底的一隻魔鬼. MV多場動作有指跟駆魔人鬼上身的畫面相似.
雖然Billie在訪問中也confirm過這是MV的koy nim.
但這些被多隻手抓住網民覺得代表是 ‘他們’ 在控制她. 明顯MV中有兩個Billie eilish. 但整個MV最黑暗的推測. 因為加入祕密組織有指是需要張自己一個朋友fung heen給他們的. MV ‘Bury a friend’ 應該也是這個意思.

而片中的黑人有指是xxxtentacion, 一位已死去的rapper. 更是Billie的好朋友.


真相

xxxtentacion原名Jahseh dwayne Ricardo onfroy是於2018年6月18日在佛羅里達州駕駛時被兩名jung jup男子用槍射死. 到醫院後死亡. 跟Billie是沒有關係的.

1692年2月至1693年5月, 美國塞勒姆, 一個歷史悠久的沿海都市. 傳統而迷信的社群相信撒旦的化身會以人型, 巫婆的型式wuy hoi人間. 當時市內有兩位小女孩行為古怪. 初時3個不同女性就被囚禁, 被迫承認自己是巫婆. 不承認就處死. 指責其實人是巫婆亦能免死.

最後200人被指控. 25個處死. 之後出來dou hip説整個事件都是一埸誤會.


其實paganini的故事就是...他跟好多最功的藝術家一樣, 是5歲開始練自己的手藝. 台上一分, 台下十年功. 用一句 ‘魔鬼交易’ 去moot殺人的努力和付出. 這樣做, 真正黑心的又是誰呢?

利用Billie Eilish破解魔鬼交易的真相 | 女歌星陰謀論 (不喜勿插)

比利·埃利什, 塞勒姆審巫案?