［101］［冇集資直接上市點set招股價？］明明就話1000—1500市值億嘛，唔好講到升三成就表現好喎！你嗰「三成」係同咩比先？同場加映：一隻股票兩個市值，你如何可以知道間公司有幾多股？

TLRD：個「250」參考價根本就相當arbitrary，唔好畀佢anchor咗你嘅判斷嘛（＊）。人地話500蚊係參考價咁唔通你話潛水？人地話25蚊咁又話爆升十幾倍？

＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝
2021比別人知得多。subscribe now（https://bityl.co/4Y0h）。Ivan Patreon，港美市場評點，專題號外，每日一圖，好文推介。每星期6篇，月費80，半年已1600人訂！ 畀年費仲有85折
＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝

1. 遲咗少少寫（好忙架我），但都係寫返星期三晚嘅嘢。之後升跌就另一個問題，唔好離題。

2. 呢個Coinbase（COIN）昨晚（星期三晚）上市，收報328蚊。見有啲話升三成。我心諗，升乜？哦，同個「參考價」250比。但，呢個「參考價」有乜意思？點定出嚟？你又唔係買到，又唔係有人買到。我定500得唔得？定50呢？好似都冇話唔得。咁唔通我定500然後話你隻嘢上市大插？或者我定50就變咗升幾倍？實情發生嘅嘢完全冇分別架喎。

3. 首先，之前Patreon寫過，CoinBase冇錯係新股上市，但唔係IPO，佢玩直接上市，唔集資。咁最初啲股票點嚟？咪舊股東沽出嚟畀你。冇問題的，佢亦唔係第一間，美國之前都有幾間，香港亦有呢種玩法。

4. 咁但係，如果IPO，大家知道有個「招股價」啦，最後會定價，美國都類似。咁你定價10蚊，第一日上市收20蚊，咪升100%。

5. 之但係，如果冇招股價呢？咁點計升跌幾多？又或者你個股票機個「前收市價」係幾多？

6. 答案係：其實係冇的。即係宇宙起源咁，你追問到尾總有第一下，總有「時間嘅起點咁」。如果香港嘅做法，咪就係根本冇呢樣嘢咯，冇問題的。「香港都有直接上市？」。有，但唔多，例如有時有啲公司分拆另一間上嚟，又唔集資，介紹上市咁咪得。冇問題

7. 但美股就得意啲，至少Nasdaq係（NYSE唔知，我估都係）。好歹你要有個「參考價」，250蚊，咁你嗰升三成，咪係250比。但呢個250係乜？其實冇任何意思架喎

8. 渣正嚟講，如果你啲股份，上市之前都有啲一定金額嘅交易（股票可以唔上市，而冇上市嘅股票一樣可以交易！），咁咪用嗰個價做「參考價」咯，合理嘅。因為冇乜更好選擇。

9. 但呢個case，話冇呢啲私人交易喎，咁就審死官，我都唔知呢個250蚊點嚟。Nasdaq都講明，呢個唔係offer price，亦冇人在呢個位買過，或賣過。咁點解係250？唔知喎，咁啱曼城踢歐聯啩。

10. 正經講，你點去評估隻新股表現好唔好？咁兩樣嘢（可能係同一樣），首先之前啲投行呀各樣嘢會吹風，分析員會自己估，覺得隻嘢上市應該係幾多市值（正如螞蟻嗰時都大把人估，我都有，雖然最後根本上唔到市）。另一方面，亦都有啲「暗盤交易」，例如FTX都有得炒COIN嘅「期貨」咁

11. 咁，明明之前講話1000億市值嘛（好多報導都有提），大過Nasdaq（間公司）同ICE（紐交所NYSE老母，仲有好多其他交易所）加埋嘛。唔止，其實啲暗盤，係value到隻嘢去到1500億市值。亦都有埋股價你睇，邊止328？見過550！（Patreon有講！）。

12. 咁你話表現得唔得？梗係唔得，今晚升多十個開我唔理啦，但第一日就真係不似預期。而你拎嚟同個250講真係多餘。唔通我set做500又話你大插？

13. 實際上只有兩樣嘢。第一，即市追入嗰班，咁你見都主要係開得高收day low，多數即日追都輸錢。第二，當然係早早早早早遠古已經入股嘅人，咁嗰啲友當然都係執十倍甚幾廿倍—但，都同個250無關的。換個角度諗，當小企鵝實業招股價100蚊，開市第一日收50蚊，你梗係話大插啦 —咁我話你知勞蘇基金1蚊嗰時入股，你唔會理架嘛。

14. 而仲有一個少少嘅問題。你發現好得意，咁咩「升三成」，睇你點理解啫。但照計個收市價328冇任何爭議啦？之前亦講過，出面原本預市值去到1000-1500億嘛。

15. IQ題嚟啦喎，請問328蚊收市，即係CoinBase市值係幾多？

16. 答案係，「我都唔係好肯定！」。係喎，唔係玩嘢，你睇Financial Times 話760億（https://bityl.co/6Oj1），CNBC就話858億（https://bityl.co/6Oj3）（唔止，佢地報價又話610億）（https://bityl.co/6Oj5）。大佬，邊個至真？做乜一間公司幾個市值？

17. 雖然好廢，但都要講，市值咪 股數X股價。咁股價照計人人都同意係呢個，問題當然係股數。「點樣知一間公司有幾多股？」（呢個問題我以前見工會問啲小朋友）。

18. 呢個問題呢，都真係有啲複雜，特別係新股上市。因為一來可能涉及「綠鞋」（Greenshoe，學名叫做超額配售權），唔知Coinbase有冇，可能冇，因為直接上市。
19. 另一樣嘢，就係班舊股東仲有好多option之類可以行使嘛。咁你點知佢行使咗未？冇錯好似係要報，但，都唔係咁快見到啦？

20. 所以，實務上，就有個概念叫「呼呢大碌」或者叫「呼呢晏拉廚突些丫喼咇圖」。即係假設你啲嘢行使晒，咪多咗好多股數咯，用嗰個大啲嘅股數計。

21. 而冇錯，Financial Times同CNBC用唔同嘅標準，好難話邊個啱，反正Financial Times都有講明如果係「呼呢晏拉廚突」就係858億，正係CNBC嘅數。而用邊個都好，都唔夠之前講嘅1000億啦，更唔好講話FTX暗盤嘅1500億。

22. 至於你問我，一定要二選一嘅，似乎都係叫「呼呢晏拉廚突些丫喼咇圖」，特別係擺明堆option實會行使（雖然外人唔使做呢個判斷，人地鍾意掉落海都得嘅）。

＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝
2021比別人知得多。subscribe now（https://bityl.co/4Y0h）。Ivan Patreon，港美市場評點，專題號外，每日一圖，好文推介。每星期6篇，月費80，半年已1600人訂！ 畀年費仲有85折

（＊）唔好睇少Anchoring effect，個檸個都話自己獨立思考，但我就知道人腦係幾咁脆弱。一個出名嘅實驗，例如叫班人估下烏干達人口呀，香港有幾多間上市公司呀咁。不過估之前叫啲人轉個有數字嘅幸運輪，然後先答。擺明個幸運輪完全唔關事嘅，但研究見到，轉到大數字嘅人，自然就會答問題估得高啲。

且 #加重控罪 And they’re #UPPING the charges 🔥
—————
#明報英文 毛孟靜
To up? 得！
//10年前，台灣有一場新年煙花，打出「 #TaiwanUP」，一度惹來一點訕笑：「這是什麼英文？外國人看不懂呀。」
Taiwan up，意思原也是明顯的，不外就是 Taiwan rises、Forward Taiwan 台灣奮起、前進台灣之類；同時也會理解因為是煙花設計，須盡量精簡，就用了 up。不算錯。事實是，英文有正規 to up 的用法。

//想起這一幕，是因為最近在網上看到一句有趣的廣告口號，用來推廣不同的早晨蛋餐：
•EGGcellent ways to up your breakfast!
EGGcellent，自然是指 excellent ，而 up your breakfast，令你的早餐「向上、提升」，也就是更精彩之意。

//亦有外國網頁主題宣揚舊日美國西部牛仔的精神與文化，當中 cowboy up 的解釋包括：get back on your horse 重新跨上馬背、don't backdown 不退縮、don't give up 不放棄、and do the best you can with the hand you are dealt 以手上已得的牌，做到最好。

//To up 的比較傳統用法，除了 up the stake 增加成本風險、up the price 加價，up the salary 加薪等等，還有：
•The dog upped its volume. 狗吠得更大聲。

•Not only it's an arbitrary arrest, they're upping the charge. 那不單是一宗濫捕，他們還加重罪名。

//To up 另解作「站起來」：
•She upped and left without a word. 她一言不發站起來就走了。

•My friend tells me he can't just up and leave work the minute his shift ends. 朋友跟我說，他不可以在下班時間一到就站起離開。

•After she had left for London, he upped and followed her. 她出發到倫敦後，他也起行跟隨她去。

有 to up，自然也有 to down，常用的有：
•I saw him DOWN his beer in one gulp. 我看着他一口氣喝掉啤酒。

•The storm has DOWNED trees and powerlines all over the neighbourhood. 風暴吹塌了社區許多樹木及電線。//

Just a quick update for those who might not have heard of our election result as of yesterday.

We've had the highest voting rate since 2004, with a turnout rate of 58% - reflecting how important it is given that it is the first one since the Umbrella Movement in 2014.

Pro-democracy camp has maintained its veto power in LegCo (at least in relation to members bills and constitutional reforms), winning 19 seats out of 35 in the Geographical Constituency, and 11 out of 35 in the Functional Constituency.

There are some new faces in the LegCo, with new generations now entering the council. Six candidates have set to advocate for Hong Kong's "self-determination" in the LegCo. Although localist parties did not do as well as I'd hope, overall the results still remain positive.

In case you've missed it, here's the video which is a continuation of my previous video explaining how Hong Kong is not China. This video will give you a better idea into Hong Kong's flawed institutional structure. It is to be seen whether call for Hong Kong's self-determination can really be brought up in the LegCo.

Lastly, for the next period of time, I will be returning to my usual Cantonese videos (travelling, vlogging etc). I know that many of you perhaps don't understand Cantonese so I will be putting on English subtitles in my future videos.

Thanks,
Auman

Hong Kong Independence?
…all you need to know about recent Hong Kong in 15 minutes
▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
↓↓Transcript (as requested)↓↓

我們之前提及香港與中國有截然不同的制度
So previously we talked about Hong Kong and China having vastly a different system
香港是一個仿民主社會，而中國即由中國共產黨統治
Hong Kong is a quasi-democratic society while China is dominated by the Chinese Communist Party
所以我們不希望人們混淆兩者
…so we don’t want people to get confused between the two
但故事還未講完
But the story doesn’t end here
明年是2017年，香港主權移交給中國的20週年
Next year 2017, it would be 20 years since Hong Kong’s turnover to China
你大概會以為這段時間香港和中國會越走越近
You would’ve thought that during this time, Hong Kong and China would’ve grown closer to one another
但事實卻非如此
But it has not been so.
香港人和中國人反而變得越來越有隔膜
If anything, we’ve grown to be more and more apart.
-\-\-
沒錯 在過去20年
Yes it is true that during the last two decades
中國從一個發展中國家 發展成現時最大經濟體系之一
China has gone from being a developing country to what is now one of the largest, if not the largest economy in the world
人民收入增加 生活質素提升 有些中國人也躋身全球富豪榜
…which means rising income for Chinese citizens, better quality of life and China has some of the richest people in the world
香港人應該為中國人身份感到自豪吧
If anything, Hong Kong people should be a proud China man!
我還記得2008北京奧運 那個開幕典禮實在是精妙絕倫
I still remember seeing the Beijing Olympics in 2008; that opening ceremony was outrageously amazing
花了很多心機 很好看
…it was beautifully done and such a joy to watch
那是香港人少有地為國家感到自豪的一刻
It was one of those rare moments where Hong Kong people share the same sense of pride as the rest of China
不過 現實歸現實
But the Olympics is one thing, and reality is another
-\-\-
事實上，自主權移交以來，香港和中國一直有許多矛盾和衝突
The truth is there have been a lot of conflicts between Hong Kong and China since the handover
香港向中國打開了大門，每天都有大量中國遊客到訪
Hong Kong has largely opened up to China where we get a huge number of Chinese tourists every day
旅客本身不應該是個問題，但我們目睹過不少中國旅客的不文明行為
並不是問題。重點在於中國遊客所製造出來的問題。
While tourism shouldn’t be a problem in itself, we have witnessed a lot of issues with these Chinese tourists
例如不懂得在迪士尼樂園排隊 和隨地小便
There had been reports of uncivilized behavior such as not knowing how to queue in Disneyland and… pissing on the street.
我必須強調 不是所有中國遊客都會這樣做 只有一部份會這樣做
And I can’t emphasize enough, not every Chinese tourists do it, it’s just some that does it
但由於香港每天都有大量的中國遊客 這成為了一個逼切的問題
…but because Hong Kong gets so many of them, that becomes a daily problem for people living in Hong Kong.
除此之外，我們可以看到名牌店和藥房的數量激增，以滿足中國遊客的需求
And it’s not just that, we see the rise in luxury shops and pharmacies in Hong Kong to tailor the need of Chinese tourists
如果你去上水（很接近中國邊境的地方）的街頭
If you go to a street in Sheung Shui, which is a place very close to the mainland border
我以前常常去的──你會看見到處都是藥房
I used to go there a lot - you see streets full of pharmacies
其實我完全不明白為何這些店舖會叫做藥房
…and I don’t even know why they are called pharmacies
因為他們主要不是售賣藥物，而是奶粉和尿片
…because mainly they don’t sell medicine, they sell baby milk formula and diapers.
事實上 大陸人不相信中國製的貨品
The thing is, mainland Chinese don’t trust their own stuff
因為在中國任何東西都有可能是假的 那裡沒有質量管制或食物安全
…because you can get fake everything in China; there’s no quality control or food safety
所以很多中國人都會來香港買日用品 如奶粉
So many Chinese come to Hong Kong to buy daily stuff and one product that has always been in high demand is baby milk formulas
香港部份地區甚至出現奶粉短缺的問題
It has got to a point where the supply became so tight that there is a shortage of milk formulas in some areas of Hong Kong
如果你住在歐洲或美國，這情況可能難以置信
If you are living in the Europe or the US, this might sound really hard to believe
嬰兒配方奶粉和尿片！但這是真的，這切切實實在香港發生
Milk formula and diapers, but it’s true, it is what’s happening in Hong Kong.
還有其他問題，例如中國孕婦來港產子等
I can go on about other stuff as well such as the number of Mainland pregnant women who come to Hong Kong
事實上，在2010年，37%新生嬰兒的父母均不是香港永久居民
In fact, in 2010, as much as 37% of all babies born in Hong Kong have neither parents being a permanent Hong Kong resident
-\-\-
基於這些中港矛盾的問題 香港出現越來越嚴重的反中情緒
Basically because of all these things, this has led to an increasingly serious anti-Chinese hype in Hong Kong
很多香港人都不歡迎中國人 只想他們離開
Many local people are furious and just want them to go away
但對我來說 問題永遠出於制度
But to me, the real problem always lies in the system
我不想將整件事歸疚於中國人身上
Conceptually, I hate to put my frustration upon the Chinese people
因為要來港購物以保障自身安全並不是他們的錯
Because it’s not their fault that they have to buy things from Hong Kong to ensure that they are safe
但制度上出了甚麼問題？
But what about the system?
關於這個制度我簡述如下
There’s a lot I can say about this system, but for now I will just simplify it as follows
在制度頂端有中國共產黨，之後有香港政府和立法會中的建制派
At the top of the system we have the Chinese Communist Party, then we have the Hong Kong government and the pro-establishment camp in our Legislative council
簡單來說，這個制度一直想將香港變成中國的一個普通城市
In short, this system has been trying to turn Hong Kong into just another city of China
並且破壞一國兩制的原則
…and damaging the core principle of “One Country, Two Systems”
-\-\-
很長時間以來，香港人一直在爭取民主
For a long time, Hong Kong people have been advocating for full democracy
即是普選，可以提名和投票給我們自己的領袖（行政長官）
That means universal suffrage with the right to nominate and elect our own leader, which in Hong Kong is called the Chief Executive
根據基本法，我們有普選的權利
According to the Basic Law, we have a legal right to universal suffrage.
在過去20年，中國政府曾多次承諾香港人會有普選
In the past 20 years, the Chinese government has assured Hong Kong several times that we are going to get universal suffrage
但他們一直拖延實施普選的日期
But they have been pushing back the date for it
又推托說香港人未準備好，所以2007年和2012年都沒有普選。
…and kept saying Hong Kong wasn’t ready, so we didn’t get it in 2007 and 2012
但北京承諾香港2017年可普選特首
But the Chinese has set a timeline for it, and they said Hong Kong would eventually get universal suffrage by 2017
結果，2014年8月31日，北京說
And guess what, on 31st August 2014, the Chinese said
好，你可以有你想要的普選，但我們需要增加幾個條件
Alright you are going to get your universal suffrage, but we are going to have to impose some conditions
首先，行政長官必需愛國
First the Chief Executive must be someone who is patriotic to China
第二，候選人需要先得到現有的行政長官選舉委員會的提名 (絕大部分都是親中代表)
Secondly candidates are going to be nominated by the current Election Committee, which consists (mostly) of 1200 pro-Beijing representatives
最後，無論誰勝出選舉，都要得到中國政府委任才可成為行政長官
Lastly, whoever wins the popular election must be appointed by the Chinese government
所以他們就是說，好，你們可以普選，但我們保留剔除任何人的權利
So basically they are saying, alright you can get your vote but we reserve the right to screen out anyone that we dislike
-\-\-
北京公布831決定後，香港人當然很憤怒
After this was announced by the Chinese officials, we were bloody furious
所以我們展開了一連串抗議行動，要求真普選
So we began a series of protests demanding for “true universal suffrage”
我們一直以來都覺得普選就是
For years we have always thought universal suffrage means just that
一個民主及公開的選舉
The right to vote in a democratic and open election
但是中共卻憑空製造了完全相反的東西
But the CCP managed to create something that is completely contrary to that
結果，大學生開始罷課
As a result, university students like myself began boycotting classes
並參與在金鐘香港政府總部外舉行的集會
…and attended gathering outside the Hong Kong government headquarters in Admiralty to protest
這演變成持續79天的佔領金鐘、銅鑼灣和旺角的運動
This has then turned into a 79-days long widespread occupy movement in streets of Admiralty, Causeway Bay and Mongkok
期間警察使用催淚彈和胡椒噴霧來驅散我們，我們即用雨傘作盾
During this time, police has used tear gas and pepper spray to try to get rid of us and we used umbrellas as shield
解釋了為什麼這叫雨傘運動或雨傘革命
That’s why this is called the Umbrella Movement or Umbrella Revolution
我個人不喜歡稱之為革命，因為革命通常與激進的改變有關
Personally I don’t like to call it a revolution, because revolution is often associated with some sort of radical change
但對於我們來說，79天佔領街頭後，仍毫無成果
But for us, after 79-days of occupying the streets, nothing has changed.
到今天為止，一切維持原狀──沒有行政長官普選
So to this day, the status quo remains – there is no universal suffrage for our Chief Executive election
-\-\-
但是為何我們這麼想要普選？
But why do we want universal suffrage so much?
你要明白，我們的制度一直都有缺陷
Well you have to understand that our governmental system has always been institutionally flawed
一般當我們提到三權分立時，有行政、立法和司法三個機關
Usually when we talk about the Separation of Powers, we have the Executive, the Legislative and the Judiciary
這三個機關本應互相制衡，沒有人能夠掌控一切的權力
They are meant to act as checks and balances of each other so no one gets too much power
因為正如英國的阿克頓男爵所言：
…because as Lord Acton famously said,
「權力導致腐敗，絕對權力導致絕對腐敗。」
“Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.”
我們不但行政長官是經由1200人的小圈子挑選 當中大部份為親中人士
Not only is our leader of the executive selected by a small-group of 1,200 voters – the majority of whom are pro-Beijing
我們連立法會也不能全部直選
We also don’t get to vote entirely for our Legislative Council
事實上，我們只能直選立法會的一半議員
In fact, only half of our legislators get directly elected by us
另外一半是由所謂的功能組別選出
The other half are elected through the so-called Functional Constituencies
香港一共有28個功能組別
There are 28 different functional constituencies, representing different seats in our Legislative council
原意是為了讓香港不同的界別和工種都能對政府政策有話語權
Originally this meant to provide different professions across Hong Kong to have a say in government politics
-\-\-
但這個制度本質上存在缺陷
But there’s a huge problem – this system is fundamentally flawed
最為人爭議的是，這制度容許公司和專業團體登記為選民
Most controversially, it allows companies and professional bodies to register as voters
製造了一個漏洞讓大公司同時間可持有多張選票
So this creates a loophole where big business can hold multiple votes at the same time
以飲食業為例，大公司可以登記每間分店為一個選民
Consider the catering constituency, big restaurant companies can register each of their outlets as voters
像大家樂這種大型的連鎖餐廳
So big food chain like Café De Carol
不，這不是一間法國菜餐廳，這是港式快餐店
Nope, it is not a French restaurant – it’s a fast food Chinese restaurant
這些大公司可以登記上一百張選票
Something like that can register up to a hundred votes if they like
另外，不同功能組別之間也有很大差異
Also there is a huge discrepancy between different functional constituencies
例如，在衛生服務界，有37,000個登記選民，但在保險界卻只有130個
For example, in the Health Services sector, there are 37,000 registered voters, whereas in Insurance, there are only 130 registered voters
這個差異根本不合邏輯 為甚麼有些行業會得到更廣泛的代表？
There is really no logical explanation for it – why are some industry represented more fairly while others are not
事實上，近半功能組別都是自動當選的，大部份的席位都由建制派瓜分
In fact, almost half of the functional constituencies are uncontested and most of the seats are dominated by the pro-establishment camp.
-\-\-
這有甚麼實際意義？
But what is the actual significance?
當立法會議員自行提出草案和議案時，我們有所謂的分組點票
You see, when individual legislators propose bills and motions, we have a split-voting system
意思是，在草案通過之前，
…meaning that to be able to pass the bill
需要得到地區直選和功能組別兩方面均過半數支持
It requires a majority vote in both the geographical constituency – those directly elected by us – and the functional constituency
所以就算一個草案得到總共過半數的支持
So we can have a bill that is supported by the majority of the legislators
但仍會因為在功能組別方面未過半數而流產
But fails nonetheless because it did not pass the functional constituency
理論上，只要控制了功能組別的半數就可以否決任何議員草案或議案
So in effect, you only need half of the votes within the Functional Constituency to reject all bills and motions put forward by individual legislators.
但政府提出的卻不一樣，
But the same does not apply to government bills
只需要取得過半數的支持就可以了
For government bills, you only need to get a majority from all the legislators as a whole
所以有時候會有一些政府議案原本被大部分直選議員反對
So sometimes we have bills that are opposed by the majority of those legislators directly elected by us
但基於功能界別大部份贊成而通過
…but nonetheless get through because of the functional constituency
這個制度的問題在於政府和大商家會有勾結的誘因
The major problem of this is that it creates an incentive for the Government and big business players to side with each other
一方面，有功能組別的支持，政府可以否決所有由議員提出的議案
On one hand with the help of functional constituency, the Government has an effective veto over all motions in the Legislative council
另一方面，商界自己也可以否決不符合他們商業利益的議案，如最低工資和標準工時
…while on the other hand businesses can reject motions that are contrary to their interests such as minimum wage and standard working hours
-\-\-
因此，行政機關在立法方面有很大的控制權
Because of this, the executive has a lot of control over our Legislative Council
他們很多時候也會做很多與市民意願相反的決定
And they often make decisions that are contrary to public opinions
由於選舉制度上的缺陷，我們也不能有效地向行政機關問責
And because of the fundamental flaws in our electoral systems, there is no way we could hold our executive accountable in any shape or form
你也必須明白 香港政府和和中國政府之間的關係
Conceptually you also have to understand the relationship between our executive and the Chinese government
你也許會認為，在一國兩制原則下，香港政府和中國政府是分開的
It’s easy to say, well the Hong Kong government is separate from the Chinese government because of the principle of one country two systems
我們可以實行自己的政策，這不是中國政府的問題，而是香港政府本身的問題
And we can implement our own policies so it’s not the fault of the Chinese government but of our own government
也許是吧，但我們的選舉制度確保香港行政長官是忠於北京的
That is partly true, but remember we have a system as such where our Chief Executive is guaranteed to be pro-Beijing
因此香港政府和中國政府密不可分
That’s why it has an incentive to side with the Chinese government
-\-\-
以現任行政長官梁振英為例 他自上任以來都在替北京擦鞋
For example, our current Chief Executive, CY Leung, he has been keen to please Beijing wherever possible
他重視中國的利益多於香港的利益
There are lots of policies where he appeared to have put Mainland’s interest above Hong Kong’s interest
如2012年，政府打算推行強制國民教育
For example, in 2012, the government tried to introduce mandatory National Education classes
想加強學生的國家認同感
…so that students can strengthen their national identity about China
但這被大眾反對，因為很多人都擔心這是偏向共產黨的洗腦教育
This was met with huge public protests as many fear that it would simply be a brainwashing curriculum biased towards the Chinese Communist Party
其他情況還包括否決香港電視的牌照申請，梁振英的5,000萬元賄款醜聞等等
There are also other instances such as the rejection of HKTV, CY Leung’s $50 million corrupt scandal – etc
我們極不滿意現在的政府
Basically, we are extremely unsatisfied with our current Government
制度本身容許我們的政府恣意妄為
The system itself allows for our government to potentially be arbitrary and self-serving
而我們沒有有效的方法向政府問責
And there’s no way we could hold our government accountable in any shape or forms
這就是我們想要普選的原因：我們想選擇自己的領袖
That’s why we want universal suffrage so much – so that we can choose our own leader
當然，這不會在一夕間解決所有問題，但會是一個通往更民主和平的制度的開端。
Yes it won’t solve everything but it will be a start to a more democratic and fair system
-\-\-
雨傘運動是前所未有的
The Umbrella Movement was a first of its kind
雨傘運動一開始十分和平
It started off extremely peacefully
強調非暴力、理性、愛與和平等等
With an emphasis on being non-violent, rational, love and peace and all that
但隨着時間經過，梁振英政府拒絕回應
But as it went on, the CY Leung’s government managed to remain unresponsive
過了兩個月，人們都不知道要怎麼辦
Two months into occupying the streets, people simply didn’t know what to do
而示威者和警察之間的關係則每況愈下
And the relationship between the protesters and the police got worse by days
有警察使用暴力對待示威者
There was alleged police violence
其中有七個警察將一個示威者拖到暗角施暴
Seven police officers took a protester to a dark corner and beat him up
無可避免地，雨傘運動最終演變成示威者和警察之間暴力的衝突──市民被打、被捕
Inevitably the movement turned into something more violent with protesters clashing with the police – people were beaten up and arrested.
-\-\-
自雨傘運動以來，社會處於嚴重撕裂的狀態
Since the Umbrella Movement, the society has been hugely divided
市民對警察的信任度跌至新低
Police confidence has gone to an all-time low
一方面，我們發現和平的示威遊行再沒有用
On one hand, we realize peaceful protest no longer does a damn thing,
另一方面，人們正在尋找抗衡警力的方法──亦即採取更激進的行動
…while on the other hand, people are finding ways to counter police force – essentially resorting to more radical actions
這也引致部份市民在意識形態上與傳統泛民主派分道揚鑣
It also led to an ideological separation within the pro-democracy camp
香港的傳統泛民主派視建設民主中國為己任
Traditionally pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong felt it was their duty to build a democratic China
他們其實比任何人都更愛中國
If anything they are more patriotic to China than anyone
他們是對六四天安門事件最大感觸的人
They are the people who felt most strongly about stuff like Tiananmen Square
但在過去20年，香港民主沒有寸進，也看不到中國民主化的希望
But for the last 20 years, democracy has not been advanced for Hong Kong nor does it look likely for China
所以有人開始說
That’s why new advocates are saying,
建設民主中國是不切實際的
Well there’s no real possibility of so-called building a democratic China
我們要先自救
We need to start rescuing ourselves first
因此本土和香港獨立的概念開始萌芽，因為人們對一國兩制開始失去信心
So, there emerges the idea of localism and Hong Kong independence because people are simply losing faith in the so-called One Country Two Systems.
-\-\-
這些社會不穩和躁動最終導致今年初在旺角發生的事件
All this social unrest has led to what happened earlier this year in Mongkok
那是農曆正月初一
It was the first day into Chinese Lunar New Year;
街上有小販在賣熟食
There were some street hawkers selling street food
這些小販雖是無牌經營，但他們一向都在農曆新年頭幾天擺賣，賺幾個快錢
They are unlicensed but that’s what they have always done in the first few days of Chinese New Year, just trying to make a few extra bucks
這就像香港的小傳統
It’s like a little local tradition in Hong Kong.
但今年警察突然執法，引發示威者與警察之間的衝突
But somehow this time the police decided to confront them – which has led to protesters confronting the police
突然間，小販擺賣演變成騷動，或暴亂，視乎你怎麼看
Suddenly it has turned into a huge unrest, or riot, depending which side you are on
街上有雜物起火，市民撿起磚和樽扔向警察
There were fire on the street, people picking up bricks and bottles throwing at the police
警察向天開了兩槍以鎮壓人群
Two shots were fired in the air for crowd control
這是香港二十年來都未見過的暴力
It was violence on a scale that has never been seen in Hong Kong for the last 20 years
的確 暴力的程度與本身的小販問題根本完全不相稱
In no way was the violence proportional to the whole street food and street hawker issue
但你必須明白背後的原因
But you have to be able to understand it in the light of the whole circumstances
那種自雨傘運動以來積累的憤怒和不滿
The sort of anger that has been accumulated since the Umbrella Movement
社會民怨達臨界點
Social unrest is now at its highest point
-\-\-
雨傘運動後，各種事情由壞變更壞，北京加重了對香港的控制
Things have gotten from bad to worse for Hong Kong since the Umbrella Movement. Beijing has tighten up control of Hong Kong
我們曾經享有的自由受到嚴峻挑戰
Our once enjoyed freedom has been put to some serious doubt
去年，五個在香港出售中國敏感話題的書籍的書商消失了
Five Hong Kong booksellers who sell sensitive stuff about the Chinese Communist Party went missing last year
他們沒有任何出境記錄，憑空消失了
There were no record of them going out of Hong Kong, and they just disappeared
有好一段時間，沒有人知道他們到哪裡去了，然後……
For a while no-one really knows where they went, and then…
好像魔法一樣，他們出現在中國的電視台，承認他們所謂的罪行
Like magic, there they are in Mainland China appearing on TV, confessing their guilt
其他事情還包括廉政公署（香港引以為傲的反貪污機構）大地震
Other stuff such as the ICAC, an anti-corruption body that we have always been proud of, has also been involved in some major shake-ups
更近期的有立法會選舉有六位候選人被取消資格
More recently, six candidates have been disqualified from running the Legislative Council election
他們被取消資格的原因是因為他們提倡香港獨立
They have been disqualified because they advocate for Hong Kong Independence
沒有法例授權行政機關以政治原因篩選候選人
There is nothing in the law that allows the administrative to screen out candidates running for the legislative council for political reason
這根本違反言論自由
That’s just simply grossly against freedom of speech
-\-\-
還記得四年前，港獨根本無人提及
And remember, four years ago, Hong Kong independence was not even an idea to start with
現在卻成長為一個熱議的社會話題，越來越多人支持香港獨立
Now it has turned into a whole serious social movement – more and more people are turning to Hong Kong independence
背後的原因？
And the reason behind that?
不久之前有一個網上比賽，讓人用六個字寫悲慘故事。有人寫：
A while back there was a post asking people to write sad stories in six words, and someone wrote this:
「一國，兩制，笑話。」
“One Country, Two Systems, Just kidding.”
這就是香港的現況
And that pretty much sums it up for Hong Kong.
主權移交時，曾經有人承諾我們會有
When Hong Kong got handed back over to China, we were guaranteed of all these things:
言論自由、新聞自由和法治
...the freedom of speech, the freedom of press and the rule of law
但這些都一直被破壞
But these things have been undermined hugely
北京的訊息很清晰：
The message from China is clear:
你想要高度自治嗎？
You want your high degree of autonomy and you want to feel special right?
可是你只能在我容許的限度裡享有自由
But you are only as free as we allow you to be
這些自由是我給你們的，我現在要取回你也不能作聲
We gave you that stuff so shut up if we want to take them back. Period.
但事實上中國沒有給予我們自由
But the truth is China didn’t give us freedom of speech\\
我們的人權都不是中國給予的
You didn’t give us any of our fundamental rights. Period.
-\-\-
我的理解？
The way I understand it?
香港獨立是被動而不是主動的
Well Hong Kong independence is reactive rather than proactive
這是對中國收緊香港的控制所走的一步
It’s a response to the Chinese government for increasingly tightening up control of Hong Kong
我們已經對一國兩制完全失去信心
We’ve completely lost faith in One Country Two systems
所以我們要求更多自主
As a counteractive response we are demanding for more autonomy
我們想要把握自己的命運
We want to be able to grasp hold of our own fate
所以這就是香港的現狀
So this is where things are right now in Hong Kong
這是一個死結
It’s in a complete deadlock
我們只能二擇其一：接受一國一制或更激進地抗爭
We either accept for one country one system or we have to fight in a more radical manner
-\-\-
星期日是下屆立法會的選舉投票日，是雨傘運動以來的第一次選舉
On Sunday, it will be our next Legislative Council election – the first since the Umbrella Movement
天知道會發生甚麼事
God knows what’s going to happen
我希望你能去投票，好好考慮要投給誰
But I do urge you to vote, and to think about your vote
Because in a perfect world
你試想，在完美的世界裡
當立法會可以處理大多數事情的話，市民便不需要走上街頭暴力抗爭
…if things can get done in the Legislative Council, then people wouldn’t need to take to the street and to resort to any kind of violence
我們極需立法會抗衡行政機關的權力，而你的一票有莫大的幫助
We desperately need a balance of power right now – and your vote can contribute to that
我們需要議會內有更大的聲音──我們需要更多人去尋找不同的可能
We need more voice in our Legislative council – we need people to look for different possibility
呼。就是這樣。
Phew, so that’s it.
無論你來自香港或香港以外的地方
Whether you are from Hong Kong, or from outside of Hong Kong,
這段和上一段影片都對我以及很多香港人來說很重要。
This video and the last video is important to me, and to a lot of people in Hong Kong
霎時之間這可能難以消化
This is probably a lot to take in if you’re new to this, but don’t just take my words for it
但請繼續留意新聞，和其他人一起討論，做更多的資料搜集，這些東西都可在網上找到
Keep reading the news; keep talking to people about it; go research about this, it’s all over the internet
最後，謝謝收看
And lastly, thanks for watching.
天祐香港