🌻風險管理

跌了幾十趴的個股還要繼續抱下去嗎? 去年飆漲的SPAC, 今年還漲的回來嗎?(可以跟下篇一起看).

開始玩成長股後, 我學到最難的一堂課是風險控制. 每個人對風險控制的觀念不一樣, 這跟每個人的心理素質也有關係.

風險管理, 也就是"留得青山在, 不怕沒柴燒".

風險管理:
https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86

🌻There Are Too Many Defenseless(無防禦性的) Stocks
(可以的話, 我希望您可以好好讀一下這篇文章. 我希望能夠幫您守住些財富, 減少些損失, 甚至創造些獲利. "Too many", 也就代表了股票沒有稀有性)

The underwriters just created too many stocks. There's too many new companies, too many companies that help you with analytics(分析), too many that offer video, too many data collectors and too many real-time analysis, and too many cybersecurity companies. There's been too many new electric vehicle derivatives, too many cannabis (大麻) plays and way too many new fintechs(金融科技).

The effect? We are now facing a bewildering number of companies that simply do the same things and can't be differentiated (無差異性的) and, frankly, are too hard to understand unless you are deeply involved in the transfer of data from on your premises to the cloud(雲端).

Why does this matter?

Because these stocks are defenseless. They are defenseless against inflation (通膨) because so many of them sell at a multiple to sales and any company that trades as a multiple to sales (指的是以P/S為估值方式, 非傳統的P/E. 軟體公司主要是用P/S) will see its value erode more quickly than any other in this stock market because the company has to graduate from a multiple to sales to a multiple of earnings, or just keep losing money. So many new investors have not experienced real inflation where these kinds of stocks can't be given away.

They are defenseless against an economic boom. I have been reading through countless software as a whatever with a go to market strategy and a huge TAM (total addressable market, 指的是市場大小) to land and expand(指的是雲端公司的商業模式), and my eyes glaze over. Who needs a company with all of those buzzwords that's growing at 27% and losing money when I have plenty of high quality industrials that are growing at 27% and spewing cash to the point the biggest issue is how much should be put to growth versus rewarding shareholders.

They are defenseless against older companies with a balanced policy toward dividends and buybacks, so that supply is mopped up while demand is bolstered by a yield. The land and expanders don't have anything backing them up which makes them vulnerable to sudden shocks down as we have seen.

They are defenseless against insider selling. If capital gains rates are going up, these are the companies with the most vulnerable stocks because so many of the people in these new companies have stocks that are still up substantially from when they got stock so a company with a stock down 30%-40% is vulnerable from scads of insider selling, including secondaries I am now expecting with increasing frequency.

They are defenseless against SPACs. While there are many good SPACs there are too many SPACs with too much stock sloshing around. I keep thinking about that MP Materials (MP) secondary offering in late March, where entities controlled by CEO James Litinsky sold 4.6 million shares of his company in a deal priced at $35. Now it is a small percentage of his holdings and many others involved with the company sold small amounts, too. That's not the point. It's more of a statement: this stock traded at $50. You might have been inclined to buy on the pullback but you would have been massacred as the stock is now at $27. If you have a so-called successful SPAC its success might be measured by how much money you took out of it before its stock fell by 50%. There are hundreds of things and when you consider all of the warrants out there, you know this market is going to be overwhelmed with this stuff.

You aren't going to see these kinds of secondaries at Deere (DE) or Caterpillar (CAT) , that's for certain.

Now there are people out there willing to buy the incredibly almost stupidly risky stocks, people like Cathie Wood, who demonstrated her unflappable conviction to her method of buying stocks that worked when there's scarcity value but there's anything but that now.

Maybe she can take down tens of billions of dollars worth and save the day. I wouldn't count on it. I am sorry to question her stock picking, lord knows she's been amazing. But unless others copy her, we know the stocks she is buying resemble what's not working at all. Maybe someday, but not now.

I try to figure out what the end game for these stocks might be if the economy keeps heating up and inflation accelerates. There's simply not enough money from young people or ETFs based on high growth or Cathie Wood to keep these stocks higher, and there's too much opportunity for the insiders to do what MP did, something that crunched the stock even as it reported a quarter ahead of expectations, which meant something at one point but means absolutely nothing now. Nothing at all.

文章來源: https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer-there-are-too-many-defenseless-stocks-15649142

Picture來源:
https://society6.com/product/boxing-cat_print

DEAR HATERS:

In the past couple of days, I’ve found my “haters” taking more effort to bring me down to their level of pain. I generally laugh this stuff off because I literally do nothing while my existence compels them to actively go out of their way to send hateful messages, create new accounts, comment spitefully... (it’s a lot of work)!

I don’t think I need to be liked by everyone (I’ve been working on this) because it is not possible, but perhaps there’s something about me that is triggering. Maybe the anger and judgement that comes up is something that you don’t like to feel. If that’s the case, lean into it and figure out what is truly bothering you. Surely my account on Instagram can’t have that much effect on you. I didn’t realise I had that much power.

Everyone has a choice. Social media can be toxic and you need to protect your energy.

If you don’t like an account, unfollow. If someone is not helpful to your journey, distance. The projections of your pain and hurt is bleeding everywhere, and you need to work on you. You can keep on spewing hate or learn how to channel that into love for yourself, bc when that happens, it will be beautiful. (...and you’ll get the 20mins/day you get from hating on me/others)

Hurt people hurt people and when you’re not hurt anymore, you won’t be bothered to spend any more energy trying to hate on others. It’s just not worth the effort.

《BBC》3/21

* 澳洲航空公司澳航老闆告訴英國廣播公司，“政府必須堅持國際旅客需施打疫苗”，才能登機。
新冠疫苗被認為復興航空業至關重要，去年全球旅客下降了75.6％。

首席執行官艾倫·喬伊斯（Alan Joyce）說，政府應將疫苗接種視為“入境條件”。他認為航空公司應該執行自己的政策。

喬伊斯說：“我們有責任照顧乘客和機組人員，飛機上的每個人都必須安全。”他認為，這樣做有理由改變訂票的條款和條件。

Qantas boss: Governments 'to insist' on vaccines for flying https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56460329

* 科學家表示週五晚上在冰島首都雷克雅未克附近爆發的一座火山似乎正在消退。
Fagradalsfjall的熔岩衝破了數百米長的地殼裂縫，小型噴泉將夜空變成紅色。
記錄了近50,000次最近的地震之後，冰島人早已為火山噴發做好了幾週的準備。
氣象學家說，這次噴發很小，沒有人處於危險之中。
此火山上一次噴發發生在大約800年前。
2010年，另一座冰島火山Eyjafjallajokull的噴發使整個歐洲的空中交通中斷了。

Iceland volcano: Lava-spewing Fagradalsfjall 'subsiding' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56470597

* 因擔憂冠狀病毒，今年夏天推遲的2020年東京奧運會和殘奧會，將不允許國際球迷參加。
日本當局告訴奧林匹克委員會和殘奧會，“極不可能”使任何外國球迷進入該國。
東京奧運會將於7月23日開幕。
一個月後的8月24日，舉行殘奧會。
日本和許多其他國家皆面臨Covid-19的危險局勢，全球旅行限制以及病毒變種，使日本政府做了此一決定，已購票持票人可退還。

Tokyo 2020: No international fans at Olympics and Paralympics https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/56461152

* 美國電動汽車製造商特斯拉（Tesla）首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）表示，如果其汽車用於在中國進行間諜活動，他的公司將“關閉”。
他之所以發表這一言論，因為有報導表示中國軍方已禁止特斯拉汽車進入其設施。
軍方對Tesla汽車中安裝攝像頭收集數據提出安全擔憂。
中國是特斯拉之後僅次於美國的最大市場，約佔該公司2020年全球銷量的四分之一。
馬斯克週六表示，如果一家公司確實從事監視外國政府的行為，“對這家公司的負面影響將是極其嚴重的”。
馬斯克以錄製影片在一個頗具影響力的中國商業論壇上表示意見，他說：“這強烈鼓勵我們對任何訊息保密。” “如果特斯拉用汽車在中國或任何地方從事間諜活動，我們將被關閉。”

Elon Musk denies Tesla cars are used for spying in China https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56471681

* 法國和波蘭已重新啟動部分地區封鎖措施，這兩個國家最近幾週Covid感染的人數急劇上升。

Covid: France and Poland increase lockdown measures as infections surge https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56466223

* 美國已批准三種疫苗分發，現在接種疫苗的人，對他們想要的疫苗越來越挑剔。
這三種疫苗都被證明可以有效預Covid-19疾病，而且至關重要的是可以預防住院和死亡。美國衛生官員表示。
不過，人們希望要求接種輝瑞和Moderna 疫苗的人，似乎比嬌生一針劑的疫苗多。
3月初，底特律市長邁克·杜根（Mike Duggan）拒絕給底特律居民Johnson 疫苗，他説在美國可獲得的另外兩種疫苗效果更好。
他在記者會上說：“我將竭盡所能，確保底特律市的居民得到最好的待遇。”
公共衛生界廣泛抗議他的説法後，市長做了一次轉彎，他“完全相信”所有疫苗是安全有效的。

Covid vaccines: Why some Americans are choosy about their jab https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56410179

* 拜登宣布提名美國參議員，曾任太空人的比爾·尼爾森（Bill Nelson）成為美國國家太空總署（Nasa）的新負責人。
現年78歲的民主黨人被視為溫和的民主黨派，美國總統喬·拜登（Joe Biden）上週五提名他時，受到兩黨一致讚揚。
此項提名需要通過參議院同意。
納爾遜先生說，他被任命為領導美國太空總署非常榮幸，他將“幫助帶領美國太空總署進入一個令人期待的未來”。
白宮在一份聲明中說，他「被譽為美國太空計劃的參議員」多年。「幾乎每一個太空和科學法學都有他的烙印。」
來自佛羅里達的共和黨參議員馬可·魯比奧說：「我想不出另一個更好的人來領導美國太空總署」。

Bill Nelson: Former astronaut and senator nominated as Nasa chief https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-56467580

* 3/19日星期五是英國Covid疫苗接種創紀錄的一天，共有711,156人次接種第一和第二劑疫苗。
這意味著一半英國成年人-約26,853,407人-已經接受了第一劑疫苗。
英國衛生部長漢考克（Matt Hancock）表示，這個最新里程碑標誌著“非凡的成就”。
首相Boris Johnson週五，也接受第一劑治療：他也讚揚了這一里程碑。
英國政府數據顯示，共有2,132,551人也已接種了第二劑疫苗。

Covid-19: Record day for UK with 711,156 vaccinations given https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56469092

* 嚴重洪災風險，隨著大雨持續攻擊澳洲的新南威爾士州，雪梨許多地區居民被命令撤離。
當局說生活在城市低窪地區的任何人，都必須離開。
在周日氣象通報會上，新南威爾士州州長格拉迪斯·貝雷吉克利安警告該州中北部海岸的部分地區正在經歷“百年一遇”的洪災。
一天前，雪梨當地的主要水源Warragamba大壩幾年來首次開始溢出。
在新南威爾士州，數十人已從洪水中獲救，官員們警告仍有威脅生命的山洪，隨時可能爆發。
附近地區主要道路仍然封閉。

More Sydney areas ordered to evacuate over major flooding risk https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-56473115

——圖片為緬甸抗爭，由緬甸民間人士提供

I head out into the streets of Buji, avoid the dump trucks spewing dust on my way to my local bike shop to buy a new disc-lock, then go exploring a bit...