【After Winning Majority in LegCo: Beijing's Crackdown May Trigger International Intervention】

***感謝Hong Kong Columns - Translated，將我早前撰寫『議會過半想像：以「#國際攬炒」反制「臨立會2.0」』長文（https://www.facebook.com/joshuawongchifung/photos/a.313299448762570/2887650867994069/）翻譯成英文，鼓勵國際社會關注立會選舉一旦過半的沙盤推演，在最惡劣形勢下的制衡策略。***

中文精簡版本：https://www.facebook.com/joshuawongchifung/photos/a.564294826996363/2888641404561682/

Hongkongers have experienced our revolution for over half a year. They no longer take a consequentialist view to the effectiveness of their movement as they did years ago, or waste time second-guessing the intentions and background of fellow activists. Following the defensive battles at CUHK and PolyU, November’s District Council election saw a great victory of unity. More marvellous is the union between peaceful and “valiant” protesters.

In the process of resisting tyranny, the people have realised that one cannot prioritize one strategy over another. This is also how the common goal of “35+” came into being—the hope that we will win over half of the seats in the Legislative Council (LegCo) this September, such that the political spectrum that represents the majority of Hongkongers is able to gain control of legislative decisions. The political clout of Hongkongers will increase if 35 or more seats are successfully secured on our side. It is certainly one vital step to achieve the five demands within the system.

The possibility of realizing legislative majority

Technically it is not unrealistic to win a majority even under the current undemocratic system. Back in the 2016 LegCo election, we already won 30 seats. In addition to the District Council (First) functional constituency seat that is already in the pocket of the pan-democrats, as long as the candidates in Kowloon East and New Territories West do not start infighting again, we could safely secure 33 seats based on the number of pan-dem votes in 2016.

The other 3 seats required to achieve a majority depend on democrats’ breakthrough among the functional constituencies by dispersing the resources of the Liaison Office. They also count on whether the turnout this September could exceed 71.2% — that of last year’s District Council elections. Some of the factors that could affect the turnout include: will the epidemic persist into the summer? Will there be potential violent repression of protests in the 2 weeks preceding the election? Will Hong Kong-US relations be affected by the downturn of the global economy?

Therefore, the ambition of “35+” is to be prioritised by the resistance as both a means and an end. I have already expressed my support for an intra-party primary at the coordination meeting. In the meantime, it is pleasing to see the ongoing debates reaching a consensus of maximising the seats among geographical constituencies in the upcoming election.

Whilst enthusiastic coordination, we should also assess the post-election landscape and gauge Beijing’s reactions: if we do not reach 35 seats, Hong Kong will be subject to tighter control and more severe repression by China; but if the democratic parties successfully form a majority in LegCo, CCP’s fears of a “constitutional crisis” would become imminent. Hence, the key questions are how the Pan-Democrats should deal with the volatile political situation in Hong Kong and how they are going to meet Beijing’s charge head-on.

Watching out for Beijing’s dismissal of LegCo after reaching majority

To take back control of LegCo such that it faithfully reflects the majority’s principles and needs is the definition of a healthy democracy. Recently, however, DAB’s Tam Yiu-chung has warned that the plan of the Pan-Dems to “usurp power” in the LegCo would only lead to Beijing’s forceful disqualification of certain members or the interpretation of the Basic Law. This proves that winning a majority in LegCo is not only a popular conception but also a realistic challenge that would get on the nerves of Beijing. Could Beijing accept a President James To in LegCo? These unknown variables must be addressed upon achieving a majority.

While there is no telltale sign as to Beijing’s exact strategy, we are already familiar with the way CCP manipulated the Basic Law in the past 4 years. Having experienced three waves of disqualifications in LegCo, twice kicked out of LegCo with my team, and thrice locked up in jail, I have no false hopes of an easy compromise from Beijing: they would not let Pan-Dems control LegCo for half a year and wait (as is the proper procedure) until after having negatived the Budget to dissolve the legislature, and thereby giving them an easy victory in the re-elections. The greater the Pan-Dems threaten Beijing’s rule in Hong Kong, the more likely that it will trigger Beijing’s repression.

Since the disqualification and arrest of lawmakers have already become “normalised”, one can even imagine the police stepping into the LegCo building to force Pan-Dems into voting. Neither is it beyond our imagination to expect the CCP to kick out all 70 lawmakers in a fit of rage and replace them with a provisional LegCo “2.0” [HKCT note: The first was from 25 Jan 1997 to 30 Jun 1998]. To depend on a majority that could lead to a chapter of a “new testament” for One Country, Two Systems is perhaps what many elites long for, but they are overly optimistic:for a ticket to the promised land will not be available at the Chief Executive election campaign a year and a half later.

Admittedly, the Pan-Dems cannot unilaterally initiate “Laam-chaau” [HKCT note: mostly translated into “scorched-earth” mentality or “mutual destruction”; some even translated into “If I burn, you burn with us”]. The most they can do is to force a standstill of the government, and not for long the LegCo will have been eliminated from the equation to make the wheels turn again. It all leaves the plan of “Negativing the motion → Dissolving LegCo → Re-election after re-election → the stepping down of Carrie Lam” merely as overly positive speculation, probably resulting from their overestimate of CCP's capacity for rational calculation. The Pan-Dems must guard their frontlines and recognise what the biggest threat from Hong Kong to China could be. In this case, should LegCo sessions be disrupted or suspended, the Pan-Dems would have to be well prepared to surmount the expected obstacles and prevent the disqualification crisis 4 years ago—a Catch-22 indeed.

Productive tension from global intervention: Using Laam-chaau against the CCP

What aggravates the CCP the most is the potential threat to Hong Kong’s unique status as the one and only “separate customs territory”. Any miscalculation will compromise its role as the Chinese economy’s “white gloves”. Imagine if CCP were to disqualify all 70 elected lawmakers and convene a meeting north of the Shenzhen River to pass a resolution to Hong Kong’s affairs (much like the Provisional Legislative Council “1.0" in 1997), how great will the shock be in a world with an effective Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act? However hard it is to predict the future one thing is certain: With the US presidential election just around the corner, blows to the separation of powers would not be tolerated, and the West would necessarily effect countermeasures against the Hong Kong government.

Beijing has been relying upon Hong Kong to navigate the international community for decades. While clamping down on the political freedom of the cosmopolitan city, Beijing desires to maintain the financial centre’s economic freedom. Hence, we started lobbying for the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act four years ago, and today we are determined to promote “Laam-chaau” on an international scale.

The will of the voters must be reflected in an election. If a “35+” legislature were to be dismissed and replaced, such flagrant violation of democracy would assuredly cause a greater backlash than the infamous extradition bill. Knowing what the reality ahead of us could be, we have to combine our election and international strategies to oppose the placement of a 35+ LegCo with an “Emergency Legislative Council 2.0”, to advance an international “Laam-chaau” to Hong Kong’s status as “separate customs territory”. Only then will we stand a chance to resist the regime and to realise the five demands.

Adjusting our mindset: Overcoming the “constitutional crisis” to reach a resolution

Upon the realization of the “35+” LegCo, it is expected that the CCP will launch a devastating counterattack. The Pan-Dems should not expect LegCo to run normally; neither can the lawmakers realise their governing blueprints they have for Hong Kong. Rather, candidates will be able to compete against one another with visions of a liberated Hong Kong through popular vote. Bringing this point up has nothing to do with undermining the common goal of reaching a majority in LegCo, but rather channels the battle of LegCo to positive use upon the rule of law’s death and a “constitutional crisis” ahead. Knowing that Hongkongers have nothing to fall back on, all Pan-Dems should not miss the only way to the realization of “35+”.

Thus, be they partisans, nonpartisans, incumbent politicians, amateur politicians, or the civil society as a whole – if we stay in the political discourse of 2016 and continue to perpetuate old stereotypes, that is to deal with the divisions on the pan-democratic camp by favouring the most “local” faction; to consider only resource allocation and self-aggrandizement as the purpose of a LegCo campaign; to ignore how potential lawmakers are fitted to what specific roles; to turn a blind eye to the journey of resistance since last summer (extending indefinitely into the future)—They would lead as astray and cost us lose a precious opportunity for change by winning a 35+ majority.

The extent to which the pan-democrats can stay united in light of the political atmosphere since last summer is another problem that our side must to address. Before the watershed moment of 12th June 2019, many democratic delegates were trapped in the mentality of needing to “preserve people’s livelihood”, “be content of what we have accomplished”, and other strategies that favours stability. As the government refuses to heed to the five demands, whether the democrats, especially those in the functional constituencies, have the political will to go all-in is the real difficult question that confronts us in the upcoming LegCo election.

All in all, if “35+” cannot be realised, it is unsurprising to see LegCo being more heavily suppressed in the next 4 years; even if "35+" is achieved, it is questionable whether the pan-democrats are able to weather multiple attacks, verbal or physical, from the regime (judging from its power in the last four years) and utilise the international Laam-chaau strategy against the displacement of LegCo. Adhering to the motto of “we fight on, each in his own way”, I can only hope that Hongkongers in elections, street confrontations and international front can reconcile with each other, so that we may collectively compel the government to yield to our demands in the next six months. It is only by reaching a resolution before a real constitutional crisis that we can combat the institutional violence of the regime and not be devoured by it.

https://hkcolumn.blogspot.com/2020/04/joshua-wong-after-winning-majority-in.html?fbclid=IwAR216gf53pG_j9JOpDfr2GItvjLfrFSekKTPzoEs3-s9KBqvPEwz865P8vw

微軟有出過免費的精簡版 Office 軟體 - Office Starter
Win10也可以用，讓UH教你~~
#UH #微軟 #OFFICE #簡易版 #文書軟體 #免費

EXCEL VBA大數據自動化進階第10次上課(工作表物件製作查詢系統)

上課內容：
01_如何利用篩選功能與工作表物件製作查詢系統(篩選業務)
02_將名稱改為變數由INPUTBOX取得與精簡程式
03_如何防止查詢名稱已存在所產生錯誤
04_如何做關鍵字查詢說明
05_如何快速排序與防止為輸入資料與無結果錯誤
06_如何利用網路開放資料查詢
07_如何利用開放資料做查詢系統

完整影音
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgzs-Q3byiYN6pcj-zSad2PDUK3CjXj0e

教學論壇(之後課程會放論壇上課學員請自行加入)：
https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=zh-TW#!forum/labor_excel_vba_2016

懶人包：
EXCEL函數與VBA http://terry28853669.pixnet.net/blog/category/list/1384521
EXCEL VBA自動化教學 http://terry28853669.pixnet.net/blog/category/list/1384524

新課程EXCEL VBA辦公自動化順利在自強基金會開始第一次上課，
主要目標能延續入門課程，進一步延續前課程，把函數變成VBA，
VBA設計自動化與VBA與資料庫當成重要課程目標。

課程理念：
1.以循序漸進的方式, 透過詳細的說明和實用的50個Excel VBA範例,
帶領您輕鬆進入 Excel VBA 設計的領域, 並逐步了解整個 VBA 的架構與輪廓,
進而學習 VBA 變數、常數、函式及邏輯的觀念, 即使沒有任何程式設計基礎,
也能自己親手撰寫 VBA 程序來提昇工作效率, 晉身職場 Excel 高手！

2.進而解說EXCEL與資料庫的結合，甚至將EXCEL當成資料庫來使用，
結合函數、VBA等更深入的功能，讓資料處理和分析的應用更上層樓。

3.將結合GOOGLE雲端試算表，教您如何將EXCEL函數雲端化與網路化。

上課用書：
Excel VBA一點都不難：一鍵搞定所有報表
作者： Excel Home
出版社：博碩
出版日期：2013/06/26
定價：380元

超圖解 Excel VBA 基礎講座
作者： 亮亨/譯 出版社：旗標
出版日期：2006/05/15 定價：420元
日本Amazon網站同類書籍銷售No.1

EXCEL VBA上一期是EXCEL函數與VBA入門，這一期則以EXCEL VBA進階程式設計為主，
剛好進來雲端技術發酵，就順便帶入大家都有興趣的雲端試算表，
所以第一次上課就要求大家一定要有GOOGLE帳號，
電腦也一定安裝GOOGLE瀏覽器，這樣才能上雲端去使用GOOGLE的試算表，
可以比較和EXCEL2003的差異，如果可以輕易使用GOOGLE的試算表，
這樣就可以再沒有EXCEL2003的環境也能作業。

此外，這學期教是剛換 OFFICE 2007，剛好可以順勢學習 EXCEL2007 新介面，
所以未來的學習環境除了雲端外，就是EXCEL2007 了!
對大家來說有很多挑戰要面對，但如果學會這些技術，工作上一定非常有幫助的。
尤其是雲端方面的技術，目前懂的人還真不多，用的人也少，
但這樣好用的技術為什麼沒人推廣？
可能也是大家都還不會使用吧!之所以自己用的熟，
主要用GOOGLE的服務至少5年以上，看著GOOGLE的壯大，發現只要跟著GOOGLE就沒錯!
不斷使用他的免費服務，感覺穩定又好用，重要的事完全免費。

吳老師 105/5/7

EXCEL,VBA,函數東吳進修推廣部,EXCEL,VBA,函數,程式設計,線上教學,excel,vba,教學,excel,vba指令教學,vba範例教學excel,,excel,vba教學視頻,excel函數教學,excel函數說明,excel函數應用

EXCEL VBA大數據自動化進階第10次上課(工作表物件製作查詢系統)

上課內容：
01_如何利用篩選功能與工作表物件製作查詢系統(篩選業務)
02_將名稱改為變數由INPUTBOX取得與精簡程式
03_如何防止查詢名稱已存在所產生錯誤
04_如何做關鍵字查詢說明
05_如何快速排序與防止為輸入資料與無結果錯誤
06_如何利用網路開放資料查詢
07_如何利用開放資料做查詢系統

完整影音
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgzs-Q3byiYN6pcj-zSad2PDUK3CjXj0e

教學論壇(之後課程會放論壇上課學員請自行加入)：
https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=zh-TW#!forum/labor_excel_vba_2016

懶人包：
EXCEL函數與VBA http://terry28853669.pixnet.net/blog/category/list/1384521
EXCEL VBA自動化教學 http://terry28853669.pixnet.net/blog/category/list/1384524

新課程EXCEL VBA辦公自動化順利在自強基金會開始第一次上課，
主要目標能延續入門課程，進一步延續前課程，把函數變成VBA，
VBA設計自動化與VBA與資料庫當成重要課程目標。

課程理念：
1.以循序漸進的方式, 透過詳細的說明和實用的50個Excel VBA範例,
帶領您輕鬆進入 Excel VBA 設計的領域, 並逐步了解整個 VBA 的架構與輪廓,
進而學習 VBA 變數、常數、函式及邏輯的觀念, 即使沒有任何程式設計基礎,
也能自己親手撰寫 VBA 程序來提昇工作效率, 晉身職場 Excel 高手！

2.進而解說EXCEL與資料庫的結合，甚至將EXCEL當成資料庫來使用，
結合函數、VBA等更深入的功能，讓資料處理和分析的應用更上層樓。

3.將結合GOOGLE雲端試算表，教您如何將EXCEL函數雲端化與網路化。

上課用書：
Excel VBA一點都不難：一鍵搞定所有報表
作者： Excel Home
出版社：博碩
出版日期：2013/06/26
定價：380元

超圖解 Excel VBA 基礎講座
作者： 亮亨/譯 出版社：旗標
出版日期：2006/05/15 定價：420元
日本Amazon網站同類書籍銷售No.1

EXCEL VBA上一期是EXCEL函數與VBA入門，這一期則以EXCEL VBA進階程式設計為主，
剛好進來雲端技術發酵，就順便帶入大家都有興趣的雲端試算表，
所以第一次上課就要求大家一定要有GOOGLE帳號，
電腦也一定安裝GOOGLE瀏覽器，這樣才能上雲端去使用GOOGLE的試算表，
可以比較和EXCEL2003的差異，如果可以輕易使用GOOGLE的試算表，
這樣就可以再沒有EXCEL2003的環境也能作業。

此外，這學期教是剛換 OFFICE 2007，剛好可以順勢學習 EXCEL2007 新介面，
所以未來的學習環境除了雲端外，就是EXCEL2007 了!
對大家來說有很多挑戰要面對，但如果學會這些技術，工作上一定非常有幫助的。
尤其是雲端方面的技術，目前懂的人還真不多，用的人也少，
但這樣好用的技術為什麼沒人推廣？
可能也是大家都還不會使用吧!之所以自己用的熟，
主要用GOOGLE的服務至少5年以上，看著GOOGLE的壯大，發現只要跟著GOOGLE就沒錯!
不斷使用他的免費服務，感覺穩定又好用，重要的事完全免費。

吳老師 105/5/7

EXCEL,VBA,函數東吳進修推廣部,EXCEL,VBA,函數,程式設計,線上教學,excel,vba,教學,excel,vba指令教學,vba範例教學excel,,excel,vba教學視頻,excel函數教學,excel函數說明,excel函數應用

EXCEL VBA大數據自動化進階第10次上課(工作表物件製作查詢系統)

上課內容：
01_如何利用篩選功能與工作表物件製作查詢系統(篩選業務)
02_將名稱改為變數由INPUTBOX取得與精簡程式
03_如何防止查詢名稱已存在所產生錯誤
04_如何做關鍵字查詢說明
05_如何快速排序與防止為輸入資料與無結果錯誤
06_如何利用網路開放資料查詢
07_如何利用開放資料做查詢系統

完整影音
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgzs-Q3byiYN6pcj-zSad2PDUK3CjXj0e

教學論壇(之後課程會放論壇上課學員請自行加入)：
https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=zh-TW#!forum/labor_excel_vba_2016

懶人包：
EXCEL函數與VBA http://terry28853669.pixnet.net/blog/category/list/1384521
EXCEL VBA自動化教學 http://terry28853669.pixnet.net/blog/category/list/1384524

新課程EXCEL VBA辦公自動化順利在自強基金會開始第一次上課，
主要目標能延續入門課程，進一步延續前課程，把函數變成VBA，
VBA設計自動化與VBA與資料庫當成重要課程目標。

課程理念：
1.以循序漸進的方式, 透過詳細的說明和實用的50個Excel VBA範例,
帶領您輕鬆進入 Excel VBA 設計的領域, 並逐步了解整個 VBA 的架構與輪廓,
進而學習 VBA 變數、常數、函式及邏輯的觀念, 即使沒有任何程式設計基礎,
也能自己親手撰寫 VBA 程序來提昇工作效率, 晉身職場 Excel 高手！

2.進而解說EXCEL與資料庫的結合，甚至將EXCEL當成資料庫來使用，
結合函數、VBA等更深入的功能，讓資料處理和分析的應用更上層樓。

3.將結合GOOGLE雲端試算表，教您如何將EXCEL函數雲端化與網路化。

上課用書：
Excel VBA一點都不難：一鍵搞定所有報表
作者： Excel Home
出版社：博碩
出版日期：2013/06/26
定價：380元

超圖解 Excel VBA 基礎講座
作者： 亮亨/譯 出版社：旗標
出版日期：2006/05/15 定價：420元
日本Amazon網站同類書籍銷售No.1

EXCEL VBA上一期是EXCEL函數與VBA入門，這一期則以EXCEL VBA進階程式設計為主，
剛好進來雲端技術發酵，就順便帶入大家都有興趣的雲端試算表，
所以第一次上課就要求大家一定要有GOOGLE帳號，
電腦也一定安裝GOOGLE瀏覽器，這樣才能上雲端去使用GOOGLE的試算表，
可以比較和EXCEL2003的差異，如果可以輕易使用GOOGLE的試算表，
這樣就可以再沒有EXCEL2003的環境也能作業。

此外，這學期教是剛換 OFFICE 2007，剛好可以順勢學習 EXCEL2007 新介面，
所以未來的學習環境除了雲端外，就是EXCEL2007 了!
對大家來說有很多挑戰要面對，但如果學會這些技術，工作上一定非常有幫助的。
尤其是雲端方面的技術，目前懂的人還真不多，用的人也少，
但這樣好用的技術為什麼沒人推廣？
可能也是大家都還不會使用吧!之所以自己用的熟，
主要用GOOGLE的服務至少5年以上，看著GOOGLE的壯大，發現只要跟著GOOGLE就沒錯!
不斷使用他的免費服務，感覺穩定又好用，重要的事完全免費。

吳老師 105/5/7

EXCEL,VBA,函數東吳進修推廣部,EXCEL,VBA,函數,程式設計,線上教學,excel,vba,教學,excel,vba指令教學,vba範例教學excel,,excel,vba教學視頻,excel函數教學,excel函數說明,excel函數應用