#葉郎每日讀報
#一週大事版

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「這場危機驗證了串流的無窮力量」
——Bob Bakish
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全世界絕大多數電影院都處在一片死寂的狀態，竊竊私語的焦慮顯然越來越大聲。

這簡直就是貝克特的《等待果陀》的真人實境秀版。這兩週幾乎每隔兩三天就會有新的報導出爐，各家媒體反覆推演關於大家一直在樹下等待那個人到底哪一天來、甚至到底是不是來這個樹下或是約在其他棵樹下。

那個人的名字叫做天能。


等待天能
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關於救世主天能什麼時候來：

1)The Verge將《天能》比做好萊塢的石蕊試紙，每個人都想知道《天能》第一個下水之後測得的市場水溫究竟是冷是熱。Disney執行長Bob Chapek在財報會議上提到對Disney來說幸運的是《Mulan 花木蘭》暑假上映前一週還會有另外一部大片開路，雖然他沒指名道姓但大家都知道他講的是《天能》。ViacomCBS的執行長Bob Bakish話講得比較保守，說他們會密切觀察《天能》到底能不能真的吸引大量觀眾出門，以確保三週內Viacom自己的海綿寶寶電影也可以成功。至於剛剛從WarnerMedia執行長升任母公司AT&T執行長的甲方當事人John Stankey的說法更為謹慎，他告訴產業分析師說千萬不要期待整個產業可以彈指之間就回復榮景。

2)Forbes的報導則不斷暗示《天能》最好的機會應該是立刻宣布延後上映。作者認為對於七月下旬要上映的《天能》和《花木蘭》來說，幾乎可以百分之百肯定延後上映一定會有助於票房提升。《天能》不是既有IP、不歸屬於任何觀眾熟悉的宇宙，而是完全仰賴導演和演員的個人魅力撬動觀眾前往觀賞的電影。也就是說這部電影需要大量、長期的行銷，而時間點應該就是這幾天必須開始。對WarnerMedia來說他們絕對不可能拖到行銷預算通通花下去之後，才在電影上映前踩剎車。如果《天能》現在喊卡，就會拱手把重啟市場的重責大任讓給花女士。所以對於Christopher Nolan和WarnerMedia來說此時此刻正是一個料理東西軍時刻：「賺錢」和「創造歷史」，今晚你要選哪一道？

3)Indiewire似乎掌握了更具體的消息。《天能》太重要，因為《天能》如果死掉，就等於今年整個暑假檔都會死掉。內線消息指出《天能》有可能延後一個月上映，並取代自家人《Wonder Woman 1984 神力女超人1984》的8月14日檔期，這位亞馬遜女英雄則會退讓至年底。該文甚至認為《花木蘭》因為扛了太多週邊商品的責任，也可能延後至更安全的檔期。和Forbes觀點不太一樣的是，本文作者認為《天能》已經是鎂光燈焦點，所以WarnerMedia應該不用急著現在開始投入上映前的行銷活動，並大膽推斷他們還有三週左右的緩衝時間來宣佈《天能》跟7月17日上映日期揮手掰掰的消息。

4)Hollywood Reporter用數學解釋了為什麼《天能》仍然可以在7月17日大有斬獲。雖然7月不一定所有的電影院都可以開，即便開了也可能被政府要求以25%或50%的容量賣票，但數學證明這樣的座位數很可能已經足夠。以史上最賣座電影《Avengers: Endgame 復仇者聯盟：終局之戰》為例第一週全美約4億票房，用9.16美元平均票價來除大約來自4400萬個座位，而實際上美國首輪電影院一個週末就有9000萬個可售座位。大家很容易忽略的是以往即使最賣座的電影也不會像百老匯那樣場場爆滿。而且《天能》會是當下唯一的首輪電影，意味著它很可能會拿下史無前例的銀幕數，即使只有50%容量也會讓《天能》大展身手。


第一優先：幫串流大戰填子彈先
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電影院還一片死寂的同時，串流的軍火競賽還在升溫。

Disney日前以令人咋舌的7500萬美元買下百老匯音樂劇《Hamilton 漢彌爾頓》的版權，並計畫在明年10月在電影院上映。結果本週突然傳出 Disney改變心意要在7月將該片上架到 Disney+串流平台上，比原訂時間提早超過一整年。

該片並非像《Cats 貓》那樣是用電影手法拍攝的音樂劇，而是直接在劇院現場紀錄演出過程。但該劇過去一票難求的狀況，讓電影院對於上映計畫十分有信心。 Disney出奇不意地上架串流，殺得電影院老闆措手不及。

但LightShed產業分析師Rich Greenfield認為這個奇襲背後透露出的真正重要的資訊並非Disney準備要調整電影發行策略。實際上奇襲是為了緩解讓Disney一個頭兩個大的Disney+內容荒的問題。

「Disney+是整家公司的未來。但此時此刻瀏覽整個片庫內容會就可以輕易發現原創或新內容真的不太多，除非你家有10歲以下的小孩。」另一個分析師說。

電影院產業因此沒有過度反應，經營者告訴Hollywood Reporter說他們很清楚《漢彌爾頓》從頭到尾就是Disney+需要的內容，和 Universal的《Trolls World Tour 魔髮精靈唱遊世界》跳過電影院直接上 VOD並不全然是同一回事。

在此同時好萊塢少數沒有押寶串流的ViacomCBS後悔了。

ViacomCBS和集團旗下的Paramount是少數好萊塢選擇不要傾全力發展串流的片廠。不像Disney、WarnerMedia 和NBCUniversal把大把大把的銀子投入在跟Netflix對幹的串流軍火競賽中， ViacomCBS的策略是盡可能地專心拍更多電影。

ViacomCBS這個不按牌理出牌的策略是：「與其拿銀子去砸Netflix，不如變成Netflix的供應商，賺Netflix的銀子」。這個讓全好萊塢挑眉的怪策略結果真讓他們嚐到甜頭，不僅在電影市場有斬獲，也在賣電影給Netflix這門生意上有不少收穫，甚至因而成立專門替Netflix這個大客戶服務的製片部門。

至於ViacomCBS自家的串流平台CBS All Access比較像是自家 CBS電視台附屬的裝飾性服務，唯一的招牌節目只有《Star Trek 星際爭霸戰》系列影集（還順便賣給Netflix跟Amazon賺錢）。

然而這波疫情總算讓丞相覺得風向變了。

ViacomCBS 執行長 Bob Bakish最近發現串流顯然比起電影更是大勢所趨，所以開始調整集團策略，預計在今年夏天將整個CBS All Access服務改頭換面，重新定位成為ViacomCBS 集團的策略重心。「毫無疑問地這場危機驗證了串流的無窮力量，所以我們將會加緊腳步抓住這個重要獲利機會」Bob Bakish說。

因此CBS的Star Trek宇宙開始扮演起類似Star Wars之於Disney集團的地位。而且衍生劇集的速度甚至快過Disney。

CBS前天正式宣佈訂購衍生影集《Star Trek: Strange New Worlds》，將由發現號影集中出現過的經典角色Pike艦長、Spock和 Number One三個角色擔綱，並且將會繼承原本星艦影集的基本風格，以一集一集為單位探索新世界，而非發現號那種比較接近Netflix式電視劇的連續性劇情發展。

五年前誰也不會料到 Paramount的Star Trek宇宙會幾乎陷入停擺，反而是 CBS電視台的《 Star Trek : Discovery星際爭霸戰：發現號》會在串流世界遍地開花。分別持有Star Trek的電視和電影版權的CBS和Paramount兩個集團其實同樣是媒體大亨Sumner Redstone所有，多年前在同樣讓全好萊塢挑眉的經營策略下拆分為兩家，幾個月前才經過複雜的股權交易重新整併為一個集團ViacomCBS。也就是說未來兩條Star Trek故事線說不定有機會交疊在一起。

更值得觀察的是 Star Trek宇宙會不會停止替其他串流品牌打工。過去的《星際爭霸戰：發現號》同步賣給Netflix上架，《Star Trek: Picard 星際爭霸戰：畢凱》賣給 Amazon Prime，可是未來CBS All Access角色轉變成為ViacomCBS策略核心之後，《Star Trek: Strange New Worlds》或是另一個楊紫瓊主演的Georgiou艦長衍生節目會不會變成CBS All Access獨家？


電影院空窗期的絕地大反攻
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空窗期大戰的主戰場——美國：因為旗下幾乎所有的電影院都處在停業狀態，市佔率最高AMC電影院幾週來已經多次傳出破產的可能。自身難保的AMC一週前才向NBCUniversal宣戰，揚言抵制該公司的電影以報復跳過電影院直接在網路上架電影的「褻瀆」行為。雖然有其他連鎖電影院跟進AMC的抵制行動，但票房市佔率高達40%的Disney也宣布將打破空窗期將未上映電影送上Disney+，AMC等電影院並沒有立刻表態抵制Disney。這場「抵制」大戰中顯然比的是誰的氣長，能有足夠現金挺到最後。

結果手上有近500億美元現金的Amazon隨即向老師舉手說：我！我！

英國每日郵報幾天前報導AMC電影院正在跟Amazon洽談收購可能後，AMC的股價隨即暴漲56%之多，也替眼前的空窗期大戰增添了新的變數。

在好萊塢片廠接二連三把電影直接上架 VOD市場的同時，英國產業智庫Ampere Analysis的專家Ed Border這幾天說提供了讓電影院稍微放心點的分析：

他說 VOD市場在美國、英國、德國、日本和南韓等國家都非常強健，產值可以佔到票房的三到四成。可是包括中國、印度、俄羅斯、巴西和墨西哥等五個國家，加總起來合計佔了全球票三分之一， 而數位零售只佔了他們票房的3.5%。全球最大電影市場中國就是最好的案例：2019年中國市場電影票房92億美元，數位零售只有不到0.9億。

所以他認為疫情過後這些國家的空窗期不僅不會失效，反而會在國家介入下更加嚴格執行。因為電影院票房的市場太大、太重要，而 VOD短期內無法取代。

歐洲方面，法國的CICAE國際藝術電影院聯合會主席Christian Bräuer則認為未來空窗期的辯論一定會更激烈，因為對於電影業和電影院業來說這都已經不是什麼理想主義之辯，而是生存與否之辯。

然後，地球另一端的印度突然擦槍走火：

正在疫情中快速統治全地球的Amazon在印度一口氣買下六部未上映的電影，包含Sony投資的暑假大片：《我和我的冠軍女兒》女主角Sanya Malhotra主演的數學家傳記電影《Shakuntala Devi: Human Computer 》。令印度電影業大為震驚的是， Amzon預備將這六部電影通通跳過電影院上映，直接上架 Amazon Prime串流服務。

上週印度的電影院協會才因為各種謠言不斷，發表聲明希望印度電影業挺下去，千萬不要選擇跳過空窗期。Amazon的大動作等同在印度電影業和電影院業的緊張關係中點燃引信。擁有626家電影院的Inox Cinemas發表措辭強烈的聲明譴責這種行為（但未指名是誰），同時印度製片協會也發表類似的聲明（同樣未指名是誰）。

Hollywood Reporter訪問到 Amazon的印度負責人，回應也同樣強硬：「我無法評論電影院協會對於空窗期的碩法，因為他們並不是真正了解空窗期的專家。」他們早就在印度試驗過不同的空窗期長度，並認為中長期一定會有各種各樣的空窗期模式出現。

空窗期究竟是死是活？欲知後事如何，且聽下回分解。（才沒有那麼快分解！）


｜新聞出處｜

5/11~5/17一週大事

Coming Soon to an AMC Theater Near You: Amazon?（https://bit.ly/2LgGj4X）

Tenet is now Hollywood’s litmus test for what happens next（https://bit.ly/2WLVVDa）

Chris Nolan’s ‘Tenet’ Must Choose Between Making History And Making Money（https://bit.ly/2WQLWwa）

Waiting for ‘Tenet’: As July 17 Looms, Hollywood Prays That Summer Can Be Saved（https://bit.ly/2X2RlR9）

Why 'Tenet' and 'Mulan' Can Succeed Even if Theaters Dramatically Slash Seating（https://bit.ly/2Z98j2D）

‘Hamilton’ Moves to Disney Plus, Leaving Movie Theaters in the Lurch（https://bit.ly/2AqOM3B）

"Disney+ Needs Product": Why 'Hamilton' Moved to Streaming So Quickly（https://bit.ly/2WBMQxG）

Why Global Theatrical Windows May Emerge Stronger After COVID-19（https://bit.ly/3dLaw8M）

Amazon India Execs On Indian Films Skipping Theatrical （https://bit.ly/3bzWXHx）

ViacomCBS Revisits Strategy That Drove a Turnaround at Paramount（https://bit.ly/2Lws24q）

New ‘Star Trek’ Series Featuring Spock and Pike Will Be ‘Optimistic and More Episodic,’ Creators Say（https://bit.ly/3fU0ZOh）

[132421] 1221. King Yosef - Pity Case (2020)★★
[132422] 1222. King Yosef - Lurch (2018)★★
[132423] 1223. Tha God Fahim - Iron Fist (2020)★★__Adam Rush
[132424] 1224. 2 Chainz & Skooly - Virgil Discount (2020)★★
[132425] 1225. Jay IDK - Hello Freestyle Pt. 4 (2020)★★
[132426] 1226. Kiro Almxghty - Intro (2020)★★
[132427] 1227. Summer Walker & Usher - Come Thru (2019)★★__Lacey Duke
[132428] 1228. Skip Marley & Damian Marley - That's Not True (2019)★★
[132429] 1229. Skip Marley & H.E.R. - Slow Down (2019)★★
[132430] 1230. Joy Crookes - Don't Let Me Down (2018)★★★

Jesus Bends Time and Space to Save You From Troubled Waters

“and they got into a boat and started to cross the sea to Capernaum. It was already dark, and Jesus had still not come [back] to them. The sea was getting rough and rising high because a strong wind was blowing. Then, when they had rowed three or four miles [and were near the center of the sea], they saw Jesus walking on the sea and approaching the boat; and they were [terribly] frightened. But Jesus said to them, “It is I (I AM); do not be afraid.” Then they were willing to take Him on board the boat, and immediately the boat reached the [shore of the] land to which they were going.” ‭‭(JOHN‬ ‭6:17-21‬ ‭AMP‬‬)

Without Jesus in the boat with them, the sea rose up fiercely against the disciples and threatened to sink their boat and drown them all.
When you move ahead of the Lord without following His leading, the devil comes and tries to kill, steal and destroy in your life!
The devil was trying to kill the disciples whom Jesus loved!

This is where the story gets really encouraging.
Jesus did not choose to teleport and wait for them on the Capernaum side of the shore, laughing at them all drenched and tired crawling up to the shore.

Jesus did the unthinkable: Out of love for His suffering disciples and through faith in His Father, He bent the natural laws of space to walk on water to the center of the sea to save the disciples—getting there using the shortest possible route in the shortest possible time.

Dear brethren, Jesus will save us from our problems—He’s not leaving you in the lurch.
He will manipulate time and space to walk to the center of the raging sea of your problems to save you!

Not only that, the moment the disciples were willing and invited Jesus into their boat, they were all teleported to their destination!

How do I know that they were teleported?
It is because Jesus walked to them at the center of the sea, and suddenly, they reached the shore immediately once Jesus got into their boat!

Dear brothers and sisters in Christ, without Jesus in your situation, it is like being tossed around in a stormy sea.
But when you see Jesus and invite Him into your situation, you will reach your destination safely and sooner than you expect. Praise Jesus!

This miracle demonstrates Jesus as both the Lord of Time and Space.
This year, invite Jesus into every situation you face and see Him miraculously turn things in your favor!

———

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Firs Take | Stephen A.: "Andy Dalton’s Chicago Bears signing leaves Russell Wilson in a lurch"

Jay Williams: "Andy Dalton’s Chicago Bears signing leaves Russell Wilson in a lurch"

- Gilbert O'Sullivan

In a little while from now
If I'm not feeling any less sour
I promise myself to treat myself
And visit a nearby tower

And climbing to the top
Will throw myself off
In an effort to make clear to whomever
What it's like when you're shattered

Left standing in the lurch
At a church where people saying
My God, that's tough, she stood him up
No point in us remaining

We may as well go home
As I did on my own
Alone again, naturally

To think that only yesterday
I was cheerful, bright and gay
Looking forward to, well, who wouldn't do
The role I was about to play

But as if to knock me down
Reality came around
And without so much as a mere touch
Cut me into little pieces

Leaving me to doubt
Talk about God in His mercy
Who, if He really does exist
Why did He desert me?

And in my hour of need
I truly am, indeed
Alone again, naturally

It seems to me that there are more hearts
Broken in the world that can't be mended
Left unattended
What do we do?
What do we do?

Alone again, naturally

Now, looking back over the years
And whatever else that appears
I remember I cried when my father died
Never wishing to hide the tears

And at sixty-five years old
My mother, God rest her soul
Couldn't understand why the only man
She had ever loved had been taken

Leaving her to start
With a heart so badly broken
Despite encouragement from me
No words were ever spoken

And when she passed away
I cried and cried all day
Alone again, naturally
Alone again, naturally