Joe：「如果按照目前FED的態度，還有許多統計數據來看，FED短期內要升息的機率趨近於零，這不只是Jerome Powell的看法，其他FOMC成員也大多如此，大家都很明顯的偏鴿派貨幣政策」

美國聯準會（Fed）主席Jerome Powell發表演說，宣布Fed對通貨膨脹目標將採取「平均」方式計算，願意容忍通膨率暫時超過2%目標，而不會一旦超過2%就立即升息，Powell表示，Fed的通膨目標，將是在一段時間內的平均通膨率為2%；這表示Fed會容許通膨率暫時超標，來彌補之前未能達標所造成的通膨缺口，這項改變是「對我們的貨幣政策架構做更有活動的更新」。

在最高就業目標方面，Powell指出，「最高就業水準是一項廣泛且包容性的目標。這項改變顯示我們重視就業市場強勁帶來的利益，尤其是對許多低─中所得社區」；包括少數種族及婦女，都能找到工作，對於就業的長期目標，Powell表示貨幣政策將基於Fed針對「比最高就業水準差多少」的評估，而Fed之前的說法是「偏離最高就業水準多少」；這項改變，淡化了低失業可能造成通膨超高的憂慮。

在採取貨幣政策的新策略後，美國聯準會（Fed）接近零的基準利率可能持續五年或更久時間，根據這項可能在下月公布的新方法，貨幣決策者可能對通膨採取更寬鬆態度，甚至歡迎適度且暫時升逾2％的目標，以彌補以往的不足。

白宮前首席經濟學家、現任哈佛大學教授Jason Furman表示：「假如未來五年利率仍為零，我也不會訝異。」

對於某些投資人來說，這將是個好消息。儘管美國經濟尚未從大蕭條以來最嚴重不景氣收復許多失土，但S&P500仍處於歷史高點，主要歸功於Fed的超寬鬆貨幣政策，在Fed 6月的會議上，17名決策官員一致預測，今、明兩年聯邦資金利率仍將維持在零附近，此外，有15名決策官員認為，2022年仍將維持目前的利率水準。Fed決策官員將在下月會議上提供最新的季度預測，包括首次對2023年的預測。Powell在6月會議後的記者會上說：「我們甚至沒想過要升息。」

歐洲美元（Eurodollar）期貨的交易行情顯示，在2023年初以前Fed都不會升息，到2023年底才會調升0.25%，但有些交易員認為這稍嫌鴿派，因而逐漸出現的避險需求，押注2023及2024年的Fed利率路徑將比目前交易行情所顯示的更陡峭 。有些人認為，超寬鬆的貨幣政策最終會刺激通膨，在金融危機和之後期間，Fed的基準利率有長達七年維持在接近零的水準，直到2015年12月才升息。Fed前副主席Alan Blinder懷疑，這次也會持續這麼久。

Yardeni Research總裁Ed Yardeni指出，疫情最嚴重的打擊似乎已經過去，企業營收即將自此反彈，每周指標正指引出營收出現反彈的方向，第2季將是營收和獲利的谷底，Yardeni特別點名零售銷售以及新屋和成屋銷售等指標「非常強勁」，零售巨頭Walmart、Target、Lowe's和Home Depot財報都公布巨大的銷售成長，超越華爾街的估計，經濟基本上已走出封鎖性衰退。

花旗私人銀行指出，政府紓困措施在「抵禦中國武漢肺炎疫情衰退的高度衝擊」上十分有效，各國政府採取迅速的財政行動，推動全球經濟的急劇反彈，基本上是V型反彈，對於大多數人來說，支出似乎「一如往常」，而支出成長多半源自所謂的「替代效應」。比如說，人們花錢來改善居住環境而非儲蓄，或者網路購物而非店內購物，這些「替代效應」太過「強大」，甚至造成供應鏈中斷和庫存縮水，花旗私人銀行，按照目前的生產率，第3季季底之前零售庫存將持續下降。我們相信這將限制美國GDP成長，但是它將成為工業活動和貿易未來復甦的驅動力，在疫情大流行期間，需求多半遭到壓抑。」

https://www.worldjournal.com/7115838/article-q2%e7%87%9f%e6%94%b6%e5%b7%b2%e8%a7%b8%e5%ba%95-%e5%b0%88%e5%ae%b6%ef%bc%9a%e7%be%8e%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%b0%87%e5%8f%8d%e5%bd%88/?ref=%E8%B2%A1%E7%B6%93_%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E8%B2%A1%E7%B6%93
https://www.worldjournal.com/7118325/article-%e9%ae%91%e7%88%be%ef%bc%9afed%e5%b0%87%e6%8e%a1%e5%8f%96%e3%80%8c%e5%b9%b3%e5%9d%87%e9%80%9a%e8%86%a8%e7%9b%ae%e6%a8%99%e3%80%8d%e6%9e%b6%e6%a7%8b-%e4%b8%8d%e6%9c%83%e8%bc%95%e6%98%93%e5%8d%87/?ref=%E4%BB%8A%E6%97%A5%E8%B2%A1%E7%B6%93%E4%BA%8B
https://www.worldjournal.com/7116612/article-%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8%e5%ae%b6%ef%bc%9afed%e7%9a%84%e6%8e%a5%e8%bf%91%e9%9b%b6%e5%88%a9%e7%8e%87%e5%8f%af%e8%83%bd%e6%8c%81%e7%ba%8c%e4%ba%94%e5%b9%b4%e6%88%96%e6%9b%b4%e4%b9%85/?ref=%E4%BB%8A%E6%97%A5%E8%B2%A1%E7%B6%93%E4%BA%8B

Rayner: In today’s episode, I have a question from Zac, who asked, "Hey Rayner, how do you manage correlations in your trading?" So, before I talk about how I do it, I want to share with you two things about correlations that most traders don't quite get.

[00:00:30] Number one is this, correlations are always changing. If you look back in time, in the '08, '09 financial crisis, you will see that the stock markets are declining, going down, right? And if you look at the bond markets, it's actually going up. Because money is taken out of the stock markets, into the bond markets as a safe haven. So, that is why you have this negative correlation between the bonds and the stock markets.

But if you look at, let's say, recent times, you would notice that both the stock and bond markets are actually moving up in tandem. You can see that the correlation has changed over the last few years.

[00:01:00] So, that's the first point that I want to bring across, is that number one, correlations, they change over time. So what is correlated in the past, does not mean that the correlation will hold in the future, okay?

And number two is this, is that correlations can change depending on the timeframe you're looking at. Let's say, for example, you trade the FX markets, you know the Eurodollar, and pound dollar, and they appear to be correlated on a daily timeframe. But if you go down to, let's say, the lower timeframe, you might see that hey, they're actually negatively correlated.

[00:01:30] So, the second thing that I want to point out is that correlations also depend on the timeframe you're looking at. So that's two things that I want to bring across. So now to share with you, how do you manage correlations in a market? Let me share with you a few things that you can use. The first thing is, you can divide your risk accordingly.

[00:02:00] So, for example, let's say you are bullish on the Euro. You are thinking about buying either Euro Aussie or Euro New Zealand and you can't decide. What you can do is split your risk across this two currency pairs. For example, if you usually risk like 2% on each trade. Now what you can do is risk 1% on Euro Aussie and 1% on Euro New Zealand. Right? That's the first thing you can do. Split the risk.

[00:02:30] The second thing you can do is to, what I call, pick the strongest market to long and short the weakest market. So if for example, Euro Aussie and Euro New Zealand, you realize that Euro Aussie is a stronger currency to long compared to New Zealand, maybe because the moving rate is steeper or maybe because Euro Aussie is the first market that breaks out.

What you can do is, long the strongest and ignore the second tier currency pair. That's another way you can go about it.

[00:03:00] And the final thing to share is understanding the markets you're trading. For example, which markets are correlated, which are not correlated, how strong the correlation, how weak their correlation and stuff like that. It's really based on understanding the markets, watching the markets, and then knowing which are the different correlations out there because it's always changing as I've shared with you earlier. Understanding the markets would definitely help you as a trader, dealing with correlations.

And so, that's pretty much it for this week's question. If you have anything that you want me to answer, just let me know in the comments section below, all right, and I'll get back to you. With that said, head down to my website, tradingwithrayner.com where you'll learn trading strategies that work right so that you can get rich slow.

If you want more actionable trading tips and strategies, go to https://www.tradingwithrayner.com

Thanks for watching!

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