【我在讀甚麼】//Three states of matter - solid, liquid, and gas - have long been known. An analogous distinction between three states of randomness - mild, slow, and wild - arises from the mathematics of fractal geometry. Conventional financial theory assumes that variation of prices can be modeled by random processes that, in effect, follow the simplest "mild" pattern, as if each uptick or downtick were determined by the toss of a coin. What fractals show, and this book describes, is that by that standard, real prices "misbehave" very badly. A more accurate, multifractal model of wild price variation paves the way for a new, more reliable type of financial theory.//

今個月，我會響 Patreon 分享 Mandelbrot 呢本書嘅讀書報告

https://www.patreon.com/LeeSimon

正如 君子馬蘭頭 - Ivan Li 李聲揚 話齋，要 join 就趁月頭，抵啲嘛。就算最終發覺唔啱自己；咪當食咗個姜B餐，同時仲可以支持本地文字創作囉。

《聰明錢》（上）
今日想同大家分享既係，原來我地成日話d「聰明錢」乜乜乜，到底「聰明錢」係咩定義？我地又可以透過咩方法黎觀測佢地既部署呢？所謂既「聰明錢」，一般人可能認為：哦，聰明錢呀嘛…巴菲特咁聰明，佢既錢咪就係聰明錢囉！其實就唔係既，因為學姜大俠話齋：「幾鋒利既刀都會有生銹既一日」我地又點可能用一個半個人黎既決定黎define咩叫做「聰明錢」而去跟呢？
圖中呢個「smart money index」其實反映既唔係一個人，而係統計每日開市頭卅分鐘同收市時既資金流向，到底佢地係uptick定係downtick既呢？係「A盤」（直搶）定係「B盤」（直隊）先？因我們相信，好多機構投資者既資金都係响市頭、市尾度做野既，或者咁講，開市時即刻做野既都係經過成晚思量既結果，有d參考價值。所以你見我平時都係架，開市睇半個鐘先寫早策。
樓上個圖想帶出既，就係08、09年海嘯時，smi爆插到13000鬆d既水平，果時個世界幾乎係末日。到左依家，雖然仲有好多人覺得美股唔會散既，牛市仲未完，係技術性調整啫。但有一樣野係唔可以否認既，就係smi已經落到同當時同一水平！之...
See More