油價暴跌對各個經濟體可能造成影響分析~

後續值得密切觀察～～～

梧：If wage growth (hence inflation) in the US remains to be stagnant and yet the economy continues to "power on", either a) USD is still TOO STRONG or b) something structural is going on within the labour market (such as automation in some sectors). One would probably need to examine the wage growth by sector over the course of the last decade or so (since the GFC) to get a better picture of this.

Reversing a) and we will probably see inflation being "imported" back into the US (as opposed to exporting disinflation during the QE 123 era), and as for b), we would either see some kind of rise in unemployment rate (more likely U-6 than U-3) or a drop in labour participation rate sometime in the future.

Well I hate to admit it, however it's not difficult to see continued weakness in the USD in the near future (despite potentially-widening interest rate differentials), once the tax reform springs into action, we are going to see our old friend the twin-deficits (current account and fiscal) again, which traditionally is bad for USD anyway. Also, as currency trends are always relative to each other, as long as the EUR and GBP (major components of the USDX) doesn't have reasons to be weak and the USD has, it's tough to see USDX bouncing back above the 100 or even 95 level.

The POTUS remains to be the biggest uncertainty of them all - and as long as he continues to play around with his Nationalist / populist rhetoric, geopolitics will continue to trump macroeconomics in determining exchange rate trends.