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Al Jazeera 訪談專文：新冠肺炎本來可以被抑制的！

半島電視台（Al Jazeera）22日刊出訪問我對於新冠疫情分析的專文。如果在2019年12月中時，武漢的情況能夠更早傳達給WHO，並讓WHO的專家小組去調查，我認為這場疫病就能被壓下，沒有其他國家會受苦。

<我們何時可以回到正常生活？>
我：好幾個國家已經展開第一輪的疫苗施打，特別是在北美與歐洲。我認為回到正常生活端賴全世界的疫苗供給與配送速度有多快。
在歐洲，如果接種計劃確實實施，我認為大約在6月份歐洲就能回到所謂的「正常」狀態。但我一直強調，與其回到舊的生活，我們應該建立起新的常態，這代表我們即使控制住了疫情，仍然要對未來任何的傳染性疾病保持警覺。

<你能分享關於英國的新冠病毒變種的事嗎？>
我：這是意料之外的事。
SARS-CoV-2（新冠病毒）是一種RNA病毒，RNA病毒往往很容易變異。而新冠病毒變異得這麼迅速，是因為它傳播得非常廣泛，也傳染給了非常多人，因此更容易形成具高度傳染力的菌株。
從病毒的角度來看，最厲害的病毒應該是具高度傳染力但致死率沒那麼高的，才不會造成太多人重病而死。SARS的致命性就很高，感染致死率高達10%，很多染上SARS的人會生重病，必須到醫院隔離治療，一但他們接受隔離，病毒就不再能夠傳播。這也是為什麼SARS病毒可以被壓下的原因。
對於英國新冠病毒變種，我認為必須非常小心，因為它的傳染性很強，必須在疫苗施打的速度跟病毒傳播的速度之間賽跑，如果傳播速度比接種速度快太多，疫苗接種的策略基本上就會失敗。

<全球使用了很多不同的疫苗，但中國的疫苗引來特別多質疑，你能解釋原因嗎？>
我：一家公司要研發出疫苗並通過審核，通常要花上10到15年的時間，這一次只花了9到10個月我們就有了疫苗，是因為很多國家的政府都在疫苗研發上投入大量資源。
現在已上市的疫苗：莫德納（Moderna）、BioNTech 和輝瑞（Pfizer）都是mRNA疫苗；有些公司正在研發DNA疫苗，還有重組蛋白的次單位疫苗，例如台灣的高端疫苗，也有腺病毒載體型疫苗，像阿斯特捷利康（AstraZeneca）與牛津大學所研發的疫苗；再來就是滅活疫苗，中國的主要是這種，中國疫苗公司生產很多不活化疫苗。
無論使用哪一種平台，最重要的就是監管機構會進行審核，透明度與公開性很重要，所有公司必須發表他們的臨床實驗數據，好讓大眾信任他們的疫苗。這也是為什麼WHO目前只認可了莫德納、輝瑞跟BioNTech的疫苗。就連阿斯特捷利康都還沒獲得WHO審核通過，因為他們需要交出完整的研究跟實驗數據。
這也是為什麼人們會對中國疫苗有疑慮，因為我們還沒看到足夠透明的審核資料，令人擔心這些疫苗的效果和安全性。

<台灣擁有最成功的防疫策略之一，你認為這跟你們的速度和你先前提到的事實有關嗎？>
我：因為有過中國傳來的SARS、H5N1禽流感，以及非洲豬瘟的經驗，我們一直對鄰近區域的任何疫病保持高度警覺與觀測。
在2019年12月31日，台灣疾病管制署一位官員在PTT（電子佈告欄）看到中國武漢出現某種「非典型肺炎」。當時總共只有7個病例，但7個非典型的肺炎案例已經是件大事，因為非典型肺炎幾乎等於SARS。
同一天，我們開始要求武漢來的旅客進行隔離。2月中，我們限制來自中港澳的旅客入境。1月中，我們將新冠肺炎列為法定傳染病，動員了超過2萬個隔離病房，以及1.2萬個呼吸器，為了接下來可能出現的傳染性疾病做準備。
2003年SARS之後，我們要求所有醫院都要擁有一個月份的個人防護裝備儲備量。當我還是衛生署長時，我設立了國家衛生指揮中心，一但出現地區性或大流行病就會啟動，所以，上述措施我們在去年1月上半就已經完成了。
直到1月22日，蔡英文總統召開國安會議，問到我們已經完成的是，以及還有沒有其他事需要作，我說沒有適合的口罩，她就要求經濟部長徵用了73家口罩工廠，成立了93條生產線。所以第三件重要措施就是超前部署。
取得大眾的信任跟支持也很重要，我們將指揮中心升級到內閣層級，每天都召開記者會，而且我們開誠布公，防疫措施的資訊也相當透明。
所以，周全的行動、快速反應、及早部署、透明公開還有團結一致都相當重要，不只有及早檢測而已。

<你能形容20年前的SARS是什麼情況，而台灣從那次經驗學到什麼呢？>
我：最開始的時候，我們有了幾例SARS病例，當時我們還很有自信，因為所有病例都收治在醫學中心，他們有很好的設備、知識跟經驗可以照顧新興傳染病的感染者。
所以我們當時想：「喔，我們還不錯，沒有問題。」但面對新的傳染病，病毒可不在乎什麼國界。如果你自大到忽視它們，就很有可能失敗。
我們處理新冠肺炎的方式，就是遵照我們從SARS裡學到的經驗跟知識。
台灣以前沒有準備好處理任何大流行病的挑戰，我們從改造疾管署開始，還有衛福部、《傳染病防治法》、傳染病的醫療與照護機制，並建立了國家衛生指揮中心。在那之後，我們又處理了來自中國的H5N1禽流感，以及2009年至2010年的H1N1新型流感，台灣人民跟政府都從這些挑戰學到了很多。

<與SARS相比，中國政府如何應對新冠肺炎？>
我：武漢讓我很驚訝。一開始，我們認為武漢（應該會）做得很好，因為中國是被SARS衝擊最嚴重的國家，人們應該學到很多。但當我們派出兩名專家過去（我們在1月6日提出申請，中國在1月11日核准），專家問說：「這些病人住院了，他們接觸過的親近人士呢？他們的家人、同事或同學呢？」結果他們（武漢當局）說：「他們接觸的人沒有肺炎症狀，所以沒有治療他們。」
專家回來之後，我們想：「天啊，這真糟糕。」因為以任何大流行病來說，治療對病患很好，但不足以壓制疫情爆發。要壓制疫情，一定要多加注意接觸者，他們是最有可能在社區內傳波病毒的人。他們還處於潛伏期，沒有任何症狀，卻可以傳播病毒。
這也是台灣為什麼花了很多心力，追蹤所有確診案例的接觸者，我們會要求他們在家隔離14天，並用電子圍籬系統監測他們。

<你認為病毒是從哪裡來的？據說源自雲南省的一隻蝙蝠。>
我：從流行病學家的角度，這場疾病應該是源自最初爆發的地點，從來不可能是從某個地區傳播至另一個地區引爆，這是非常不可能的事。
無論「零號病人」是從雲南蝙蝠還是別的來源感染，至少人傳人的狀況是發生在武漢，怪罪野生動物很容易，但是為什麼雲南的蝙蝠會感染到武漢市民？可能是在華南海鮮市場裡，對吧？如果他們真的吃了很多蝙蝠，那就很有可能。人們也懷疑病毒來自P4實驗室（武漢國家生物安全實驗室），如果他們運用蝙蝠製造病毒，那也是一種可能性。要知道新冠病毒的來源，就需要調查並公開。

<你相信新冠病毒出自實驗室的理論嗎？>
我：這是可能性之一。如果人們做研究時不夠小心，可能就會感染。台灣發生過類似的事，2003年12月，在國防醫學院預防醫學研究所，也是P4級實驗室，一位中校趕著去新加坡參加會議，他處理好了所有事情，但他看到有片垃圾，就徒手撿起那片垃圾並丟在汙物處理箱。
他去了新加坡參加一場SARS的國際研討會，但回來後發現感染了SARS。他沒有傳染給任何人，卻引發了政治騷動，因為那場會議有上百人出席。
他是位非常謹慎的人，也是很好的科學家，他只是犯了點小錯就感染了。實驗室人員感染並不是罕見的事，這是一種可能性，所以才需要調查。

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/22/prompt-action-in-wuhan-who-involvement-could-have-stopped-covid

#Repost @aishaltaf
・・・
When you place your trust in Allah and refer all matters to Him, He will direct them in your best interest, because He knows what is best for you, whereas you may not know. When you place your trust in Allah, every difficult task becomes easy, every hardship becomes bearable, every stressful situation is eased, needs are fulfilled, blessings are sent down, calamities are warded off and harms are averted. When you place your trust in Allah, you will see how you are able to achieve many things which a group of people together cannot achieve, because Allah will make it easy for you!
#tawakkul #trustAllah

今日はイルカの「なごり雪」を英語で歌ってみました♪
Enjoy!

～♪～♪～♪～♪～♪～
曲情報 / SONG INFO
～♪～♪～♪～♪～♪～

イルカ／なごり雪
1975年リリース
作詞曲： 伊勢正三
英語詞：渡辺レベッカ

～♪～♪～♪～♪～♪～
リンク / LINKS
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■HP⇒ http://BlueEyedUtaUtai.jimdo.com
■Facebook⇒ http://facebook.com/blueeyedutautai
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～♪～♪～♪～♪～♪～
歌詞／LYRICS
～♪～♪～♪～♪～♪～

I was standing next to you as you waited for the train
With my eyes fixed on the clock
And though winter was long gone, the sky was filled with snow
Then you turned to me and with your eyes full of pain
You whispered so soft
“I guess this is the last time I’ll see snow in Tokyo”

Oh, the lingering snow knew to fall on that day
After a season spent dreaming our short time away

*Darling, now that spring is here
You have grown beautiful as can be
So much more than last year, you’re
Beautiful as can be

As the train began to leave, through the window pane
You were looking my way
I could see your lips moving and tears in your eyes
So I cowardly averted my own, too afraid
To see what you would say
Too afraid your lips would form the word “goodbye”

Somehow I couldn’t see that as time ticked along
There would come a day when you would grow up and move on

*Repeat

I stood on the platform after you left that day
Watching the snow as it fell, just to quickly melt away

今　春が来て　君はきれいになった
去年よりずっと　きれいになった
去年よりずっと　きれいになった
去年よりずっと　きれいになった

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On "Tattoo Night" at the
Pyramid, the man with the most ink in the building left an
indelible mark on the Memphis Grizzlies.

Allen Iverson scored 33 points and led a fourth-quarter surge as
the Philadelphia 76ers averted an embarrassing loss with a
95-88 victory over the winless Grizzlies.

Any fan with a tattoo coming to Wednesday's contest had a chance
to win tickets to a future game. The promotion was tied to
Iverson, the three-time NBA scoring champion whose collection of
body art grows with each new season and covers nearly all of
his slender body.

But tattoos are a symbol of toughness, and Iverson is among the
toughest players in the league. After taking a whack on the
right thumb he badly sprained less than two weeks ago, he scored
17 of Philadelphia's last 26 points.

"I was just trying to take what the defense gave me," Iverson
said. "I didn't want to be overaggressive. I just wanted to
let my teammates do what they had to do early in the game
because they (Grizzlies) were taking away some of the shots I
wanted by zoning up. My teammates held the fort, and then when
I got an opportunity, I just tried to make the best of it."

Iverson made 10-of-24 shots, including 4-of-7 3-pointers. He
added six assists and three steals and confounded the Grizzlies
with his quickness.

The 76ers never trailed over the last three quarters but played
fast and loose with the lead until Iverson took charge in the
fourth quarter, when he scored 11 points.

"Allen got it going and fortunately made some shots against
their zone and we were able to build a lead," Sixers coach Larry
Brown said.

"I thought Iverson had a rifle instead of his hand," Grizzlies
coach Hubie Brown said. "He was spectacular."

Todd MacCulloch had 15 points and 13 rebounds for the Sixers,
who had all five starters score in double figures and moved back
into a first-place tie in the Atlantic Division.

The Grizzlies fell to 0-12, the worst start since the 1997-98
Denver Nuggets lost their first dozen games en route to an 11-71
campaign. The record is 17, set by the 1988 Miami Heat and
matched by the 1999 Los Angeles Clippers.

"You don't underestimate anybody," Iverson said. "When you're
playing a team that's 0-11, you play them the same way you play
a team that's 11-0. That's what keeps you consistent."

Rookie Drew Gooden scored 21 points and Stromile Swift added 12,
a career-high 16 rebounds and a franchise-record eight blocks
for Memphis, which has lost all four games under Hubie Brown.

"We did a lot of good things, but we are not happy," Hubie Brown
said. "We are not happy with the choppiness. We couldn't get
a streak. When players were open, they didn't knock the shots
down."

Iverson was hit on his thumb by Kings guard Jason Williams, who
later left with a sprained foot. Upon his return, Iverson
missed two free throws but followed with consecutive 3-pointers
before Aaron McKie hit a jumper, giving Philadelphia a 75-63
lead entering the final period.

"Coach said, `Well, if you got hit on your thumb, maybe your
shot will start falling down,'" Iverson said. "Fortunately, it
did. I hit those two shots, and we kind of got the momentum
going into the fourth quarter."

"It's always big when you've got somebody making threes and
you're on a run," teammate Eric Snow said.

The Grizzlies pecked away and got within 77-70 on a 3-pointer by
Wesley Person with 9:23 to play, but Iverson answered with a
jumper. A layup by Earl Watson made it 81-74, but Snow drove
for a hoop and Iverson made a leaning 3-pointer that beat the
shot clock and built the lead to 86-74 with six minutes to go.

Iverson had a streaking reverse layup and fed Snow for a layup
and a 92-80 bulge with 2:56 left.

Snow scored 14 points, McKie added 12 and Keith Van Horn 10 for
the Sixers, who shot 44 percent (35-of-80). Reserve Brian
Skinner had 10 rebounds.

Pau Gasol scored 14 points for the Grizzlies, who shot under 40
percent (33-of-84). They did have 15 blocks.

The Sixers took the lead for good at 26-24 on Skinner's steal
and layup late in the first quarter. Iverson scored six points
in a 13-4 run that widened the advantage to 39-28 with 7:32 left
in the second period.

Philadelphia held a 54-46 halftime lead as Iverson scored 16
points.